PETR4 trade ideas
PETR4: Seeing monday by my crystal ball.My Cristal Ball say for monday: The active opens, it goes up, it goes to average, falls under the previous minimum, and go to the Gap below.
PETR4 Will you close the Gap below? Everyone already knows, if he fall under 19.81 (+ -)
the drop may be to close the
Gap below at 18,49 (safely)
PBR BUY (+5.81%)After a strong fall in May. PBR rebounds again, in the last 37 days it has gone up 31.90% and in the last week it has 5.66%. Optimistic forecast for next week following the same rhythm as the previous ones. PBR BUY 11.91 - 12.56 +5.81% 07/30/18 - 08/03/18.
cuadruple support and reversion to ema 20+support of the channel
+horizontal support level
+triple touch dinamic support
+RSI support
+Candles reversion signal
Objective: ema 20 (teh most respected last years in weekly compresion)
okkkk....nice ride, but you have to grow now little PBREnought... for a fucking CEO resigned all this problem?
BUY THE FUCKING DEEP
support in the dinamic long trend 9.2
0.236 reached and beaked, go for 0.382 in 12.15+move into the medium channel
+recuperation objectives in process
1st objective 12.15 (fibo recuperation 0.382)
+ema 9 my first stop at close(for options)
+ema 9 over ema 18... thats my last stop
OPENING: PBR OCT/DEC 11/10 COVERED LONG COMBO... for a .58/contract credit.
Max Profit on Setup: $158/contract (the width of the spread plus the credit received)
Max Loss on Setup: $958 (assuming you do nothing and the underlying goes to zero)
Break Even: 9.42
Delta: 47.77
Theta: .62
Notes: A small buying power effect, cost basis reduction setup in a high implied volatility petro underlying battered by negative emerging market sentiment, and, well, everything else that's recently been wrong with Brazil. I have a good-'til-cancelled order in to take profit at 50% the width of the spread, but we'll see how it goes ... . Went out a little farther out in time that I usually like to go to get a break even I'm comfortable with.
fuc**** heavy resistence in the 10.10Break it up! ... serius?... again?
...5th attempt! ...with bullish divergencies in RSI and a quasimodo hchi formation
Buying PBRWere probably in wave 4 of wave the big wave 5.
16.29 is a good target based on both fib extensions of smaller and larger waves.
the small wave 2 retarced to 618 so the 4th wave should retrace low.
So I think buying a market buy is a good trade at the moment
Possible gain in the PETR4I think that the PETR4 it's going to up in a few days.
After the down of the PETR4, because of problems with trucker on Brazil, i think that the paper will grow up until 19.50.
PBR broke the 10 resistence, time to look at the 12 resistenceBrazil BOVESPA also increasing, 6% last 5 days. Petrobras PETR4 increased 13% in this period.
Oil kicking up everyday and a gap to fill. I have my buy already at U$ 9.54, with TP at U$ 12 SL at U$ 8,50
The forex pair USD/BRL increased from 3,20 to 3,90 since the beginning of the year
everything pointing up on this stock.
Anyone have some thoughts on this oversold stock?Oil is HOT this stock is oversold due to a hand full of events thats all I know. Please comment with any helpful info
hchi trying to cut the neck line11.1 obejtive for a hchi formation in 30min compresion with accumulated bullish divergencies
put stop under the ema9 line
hard bullish divergencie in RSI 30min compressionplay the last doble floor to begin a 12345 quickly extension to the close of the bullish RSI divergencie in the 12/13 zone
PetrobrasWith some of the worlds biggest offshore reserves and future reduction in corruption, this is the Outlook in Petrobras the coming years
THE WEEK AHEAD: PBR, USO, GE, T, ORCL, EWZWith various things Brazilian in implosion mode, it's no surprise that PBR and EWZ have high implied volatility here.
PBR:
Bullish Assumption Setups: The July 20th 30 delta 9 put is paying .43/contract, resulting in an 8.57 break even, which isn't very compelling, but might appeal to some smaller account holders who are willing to hold the short put until near worthless and or roll for duration/further cost basis reduction should the worst not be over (check out the weekly). The natural alternative is a synthetic covered call with the short put at the 70 delta 11 strike, which pays 1.55, and gives you a 9.55 break even. I would work the synthetic as a "money, take, run" affair and look to take profit at 50% max or sooner.
Neutral Assumption Setups: The July 20th 10 short straddle pays 1.56 at the mid, with break evens at 8.44 and 11.56. Generally, I look to take profit on these at 25% (here, .39), but would naturally be prepared for a bumpy ride and to make adjustments as things unfold.
USO: I generally don't like this instrument a ton as a petro play due to its size, with my preferred go-to's being XOP, XLE, and (when in a pinch), OIH. However, if you're willing to go a little larger than you usually would with contracts, it can be productive. The July 20th 13 short straddle pays .93/contract and is skewed quite short delta wise (-20.93). To neutralize some of that, I could see doing a July 27th "double straddle" with one straddle at the 13 and one at the 13.5 (you need to move to the weeklies to get the half strikes). That would pay 2.01 per contract, give you break evens at 12.25 and 14.25, and reduce the directionality to -9.67 delta. Taking profit on the whole shebang at 25% max (.50) wouldn't be horrible.
GE and T: Both have earnings around the July monthly; I'd hold off putting on plays, opting instead to play for vol contraction around earnings ... .
ORCL: Announces in 9 days, so sit on your hands and play the announcement.
EWZ: With underlyings under $50, I've been short straddling or iron flying. The July 20th 34 short straddle pays 3.09, with break evens at 30.91 and 37.09. Naturally, that isn't for everyone, since short straddles and iron flies generally skew out delta-wise fairly immediately, so they're not "nervous nellie" trades or trades for the "delta anal"; for those kids, the July 20th 31/37 short strangle camped out around the 20 delta strikes might make more sense; it's paying .98.
apbr adr equally - petroleum going to bounce a little bit and later carry on with down trend. accomulation only beginning
PBR: Bottom's in...We are long here from 9.66ish, sadly I couldn't publish before cause I was on the go, but well. My clients and me already bought. Now it's back over the monthly mode, and a key earnings support level, so if holding over this zone,it should be safe to accumulate positions in this stock, now that buyers capitulated with news of the CEO resigning. Debt restructuring had gone very well so far, and I expect it to continue to be that way. Let's see what happens with demands from truck drivers who are in strike...Fuel prices could affect the company's returns if the government intervenes. I think it won't happen, and investor's fears of bankruptcy risk will be proven to have been overblown.
Best of luck,
Ivan Labrie.
PBR huge pre market dropPBR, soared above 17 recently, is now trading below 11 and its 200 mva pre-market. Lets see if this stock has any chance for a bounce. Also watching other energy names and USO around 13.4 - 13.5 area, where it needs to hold for an uptrend to continue.
