PayPal: Turbulent Journey, Promising FutureI am a big supporter of PayPal but I believe its share value will get worse before it gets better. According to its Q2 2023 results, the online payment company experienced a deterioration in its liquidity with a cash ratio difference (cash/total current liabilities) of -0.04 when compared to its Q2 2022 results. The Q3 2023 Earnings Call taking place on Wednesday (1 November 2023) should set the tone for what to expect in the coming months, a steeper drop in share price or a much desired recovery.
PayPal has had a rocky year with the retirement of its veteran CEO, Dan Schulman, who was officially succeeded by Alex Chriss last month. Because Schulman's departure was planned and not sudden, the change in leadership is not a concern for me. The online payment giant also recently launched its own stablecoin showing its willingness and capability to evolve with the times. All-in-all, I believe PayPal's shares have been mostly rocked by factors outside of its direct control (rising treasury yields, pandemic lockdowns lifting, recession fears, etc) so I am anticipating the Q4 2023 to be a pivotal moment as I believe that's where we will see how Chriss has managed the company.
Despite the expected turbulence I am going to load up on LEAPS calls as I believe this company is extremely undervalued and is due for a strong recovery once the current macroeconomic disturbances subside. If the price continues to slip, I can see us hitting a support around $40 which will be the lowest the stock has been since February 2017. While this would be difficult to stomach, it offers an exceptional purchasing opportunity. A potential near-future recovery to the $58.50 level is also possible; $65 would be the next stop if the $58.50 ceiling is surpassed.
Speculative foresight: noting Elon Musk's prior history with PayPal and his long-term desires for operating an online bank (a desire he has expressed exercising with the newly acquired Twitter, now X, platform), I believe we can expect an attempted merger or acquisition from Musk once he has extinguished the current fires at Tesla and X. In my opinion, an attempt to takeover PayPal would attract high volatility which could launch PayPal's shares to prior highs. This is all speculation of course and probably will not occur for several years, if at all.
NASDAQ:PYPL
