ROKU - STRONG CONFLUENCE SUPPORT & AVG $30+ BOUNCE OFF TREND All,
OVERALL (BULLISH 70/30)
I think we break out this wedge down here either now or one more attempt on bottom of wedge and hit 280-293. However, see details below. I am most likely going to hedge downside depending how Mon/Tues go. A breakout Mon-Tues I will just go into maintenance mode and watch it closely.
FUNDAMENTALS
Let's get to fundamnetals first. There are some "doubters" on ROKU. However, they may be right in the future as of NOW in the past quarter financialls and NOW as a company ROKU is very undervalued here reardless of future ROKU beliefs. If you want to be short next quarter for reasons "XYZ" totally get that. Arguing against ROKU after 600% EPS and customers Y/Y drastically increasing it's very obvious ROKU is worth 375+ at a "fair" valuation.
TECHNICAL ANALYSIS
There is a very stong support trend line here that is holding on average acting as support we have $30-$50 moves off of it regardles of what comes after.
MY POSITION(S)
$300 Calls Dec 3rd 2021 @ $3.65
(Will add pending non breakout by Tues) -- Either $265 or $255 PUTS for Dec 3rd 2021 (May want to add some regardless just as protection or even shorter timeframe)
**Remember on options you can close/sell at any time there is a good chance if I get that 293 clean and soon I might just sell there and take a pretty solid profit. Or sell half and see if we can break the downward trend to push 315-330 area.**
BULLISH
PT #1: 285
PT #2: 293
PT #3: 304
PT #4: 330/342 --- "wait and see if we can break downward trend will be 3rdish time so 50/50 it breaks barring any bad/good news. Also approaching Christmas/Black Friday time.
BEARISH
I think the bearish comes from the obvious part of it not being able to re obtain that 376ish level. We are currently above that other previous low of 372. A break under that signls a possible big downside of 240s. The other factor is the overall market/SPY/Holidays/Feds
PT# 1: 267
PT# 2: 255
PT #3: 244
PT #4: 220 (if we somehow got down 220-240 range I will immediately swap to 100% calls and a huge buy in as the stock would be at such a mind blowing discount.
