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S2HO34 trade ideas

$SHOP trade idea 2.0Hi everyone, I am back with a new trade idea on NYSE:SHOP ... My previous one went quite well and so the next one I followed with but didn't post. My idea is similar to the one before this one, NYSE:SHOP is at a point where it's in between 2 Gaps it has left behind during past Earnings, it does not matter that Earnings are positive or negative because I've seen that can only amplify current trends. Judging by past chart behaviour, I believe it will first fill the higher Gap as its creation is prior the new one and size/gravity is lower, it might even happen that it is filled 2 days before new Earnings strengthening my thesis (just like on 7/Aug/2024). I'll be writing down past chart behaviour and you can check yourself the movements in the chart itself. By no mean am I a fortune teller but my thesis is fair, It might even happen that it keeps going up and thanks to Christmas usual volume it hits the 1 week FVG above, only time will tell. 27/Oct/2022 Earnings - Buy in 2 days before | Massive FVG on the upside *FVG filled before next earnings *New minor FVG created on the downside (20/Jan/2023) 15/Feb/2023 Earnings - Short 2 days before | Small Gap + FVG below *Price perfectly fills gap + FVG *Creates new gap on the upside (15/Feb/2023) and leaves previous FVG unclosed 4/May/2023 Earnings - Buy in 2 days before | Gap + Previous big FVG upside *Fills in previous unclosed FVG + new Gap *Creates new major Gap on the downside (4/May/2023) 2/Aug/2023 Earnings - Short 2 days before | Major Gap on downside *Touches Gap, bounces shortly and creates new gap on the downside *Fills in own Gap and closed major Gap *Creates new major weekly FVGs + minor Daily FVG (18/Sep/2023) 2/Nov/2023 Earnings - Buy in 2 days before | Major weekly FVGs upside *Fills in weekly FVGs + daily FVGs *Leaves new massive Gap on the downside (2/Nov/2023) 13/Feb/2024 Earnings - Short 2 days before | Massive Gap downside *Heads towards massive Gap below not reaching it yet *Creates new big Gap on the upside (13/Feb/2024) 8/May/2024 Earnings - Short 2 days before | Unclosed Massive Gap downside *Closes massive Gap on the downside 2 days before new Earnings *Creates massive Gap on the upside (8/May/2024) + small Gap (1/Aug/2024) 7/Aug/2024 Earnings - Long 2 days before | Massive Gap upside *Closes massive Gap on the upside *Creates massive Gap on the downside (7/Aug/2024) 31/Oct/2024 Earnings - still to come.... *There are 2 open Gaps, one on the upside and one on the downside *The one on the upside is a minor one and has already been touched and created before the downside one *Just like on 5/Aug/2024, it might close the Gap 2 days before to then sell off
NYSE:SHOPShort
by BancoMatt
2
Shopify Inc | SHOP & AIShopify stock has seen sideways momentum for the last few weeks despite posting good results in the recent quarter. One of the reasons is the bull run in early 2023 due to which the stock has seen over 60% jump in year-to-date. Shopify has been able to reignite revenue growth in the last few quarters and there are strong tailwinds that can help the company improve its topline. At the same time, Shopify has been able to improve the conversion of Gross Merchandise Value or GMV into revenue due to better services. Shopify’s GMV has increased 11x between the last quarter of 2016 and the last quarter of 2022. During this time, Shopify’s quarterly revenue base has increased from $130 million to $1.7 billion or 13x. Shopify’s GMV for 2022 was $195 billion and rapid growth in this key metric should help the company improve monetization. The company has also undertaken some cost-cutting which is having a positive impact on the bottom line. Analysts have forecasted Shopify’s EPS at $1 for fiscal 2025 which means that the stock is trading 60 times the EPS estimate of 2025. However, better monetization and focus on cost optimization could help the company deliver good EPS growth in the next few quarters. The PS ratio is also at 12 which is significantly lower than the pre-pandemic years. Shopify stock can deliver good returns in the long term as the company adds new services and improves its GMV growth trajectory. Shopify reported a GMV of $5.5 billion in December 2016 quarter. This has increased to $60 billion in the recent December 2022 quarter. Hence, Shopify’s GMV has increased to 11 times within the last seven years. On the other hand, Shopify’s revenue during the December quarter has increased by 13 times, from $130 million to $1.7 billion. This growth trend shows that the company is able to convert more GMV into actual revenue. One of the main reasons behind this trend is that Shopify is adding new services and it can charge customers a higher commission for these services. Shopify’s GMV for 2022 was a staggering $195 billion. The company has been able to reignite revenue growth in the last few quarters. The YoY revenue growth hit a bottom of 15% in June 2022. Since then the YoY revenue growth has picked up again as the company faces easier comps. In the recent quarter, the company reported YoY revenue growth of over 30% which is quite high when we consider that the GMV base of Shopify is more than $200 billion. The revenue growth will not build a bullish momentum for the stock unless the company can deliver sustainable profitability. During the pandemic years, Shopify’s revenue growth and high EPS helped the stock reach its peak. The company would need to focus on profitability in the next few quarters in order to rebuild a long-term bullish rally. Shopify has divested from its logistics business which should help improve the bottom line. We should also see better monetization of current services as the company tries to build new AI tools. The EPS estimates for 2 fiscal years ahead have steadily improved in the last few quarters. According to current consensus, Shopify should be able to deliver EPS of $1 in fiscal year 2025. However, it is highly likely that Shopify will beat these estimates as the company launches new initiatives to improve monetization of its massive GMV base. Shopify’s trailing twelve months EPS during the peak of the pandemic went to $2.6. If the company can get close to this EPS rate by 2025, we should see a significant bullish run in the stock. The recent cost-cutting should also help the company improve the bottom line. We have seen a similar trend in all the Big Tech companies who have reported a rapid growth in EPS as their headcount was reduced. While most analysts agree over the long-term revenue growth potential of Shopify, some of them are wary of the pricey valuation of the stock. Shopify is trading at 12 times its PS ratio. This is quite high when we compare with most of the other tech players and even Shopify’s peer like Wix (WIX), Etsy (ETSY), and others. However, it should be noted that Shopify’s PS ratio is significantly lower than the average PS multiple prior to the pandemic when the stock had an average PS ratio of over 20. Shopify’s revenue estimates for 2 fiscal years ahead is close to $10 billion which is equal to annualized revenue growth of over 25%. If we look at this metric, Shopify stock is trading at 7 times the revenue estimate of fiscal year 2025. This looks reasonable if the company can also manage to improve its EPS trend over the next few years. The long-term tailwind from ecommerce growth is still very strong. Shopify will benefit from an increase in GMV and a higher ecommerce market share in key markets. This should help the company gain pricing leverage over other competitors and also improve its monetization momentum Shopify has reported a faster revenue growth rate compared to its GMV growth in the last few years. This shows that the company is able to charge higher rate for additional services. There has been an acceleration in revenue growth over the last few quarters. Shopify has also divested from logistics services which were pulling down the profitability of the company. Shopify could deliver over 20% YoY revenue growth for the next few years as the company gains from strong tailwinds within the ecommerce business. If Shopify regains its earlier ttm EPS of $2 by 2025, we could see a strong bull run within the stock. While the stock is not cheap, it seems to be reasonably valued and longer-term investors could gain a better return from Shopify, making the stock a Buy at current price.
NYSE:SHOPLong
by moonypto
2
$SHOP JADE LIZARD TRADE, 37 DTE (>$68 on 11/22 preferred)NYSE:SHOP JADE LIZARD TRADE, 37 DTE Sell SHOP $94 Call 11/22 Buy SHOP $95 Call 11/22 ~{share price: $81.85}~ Sell SHOP $70 Put 11/22 Credit to open: ~$200 Jade Lizard = Credit from the short put (strike price below the price) exceeds the max loss of the call credit spread (strike prices above the price). Expiration scenarios: (1) Share price above $95 @ expy, then profit of $100, (by definition, there's no risk to the upside with a 'jade lizard' trade). (2) Share price between $70-$95 @ expy, then profit of $200. (4) Share price below $70 @ expy, then assigned to buy 100 shares at an avg cost of $68.00.
NYSE:SHOP
by zach6667
SHOP - Oct 24 Opening Sustainable Momentum (Trade 2)First SHOP trade hit our SL. Conditions still stand and we have another momentum signal. 10 Oct RUT D1 is currently in a range setup. The CPI report showed that US inflation is cooling more slowly than expected, missing forecasts. This caused both the RUT and SPX to gap down at the open. While the SPX held above the support level it had broken the day before, the RUT’s bear gap was significant enough to test the 2172.90 support level. However, price quickly reversed, and the RUT closed with a bullish hammer pattern. The alignment of RUT's H1 bullish hammer pattern and SPX holding above the support line was a signal for a price pivot on the RUT for price to ride the range upwards. Trade 1 - SHOP had tested a previous support and continued to move upwards on the H2. I placed an entry position on the high of the H2 candle and got filled. Trade 1 - Hits SL 11 Oct RUT and SPX both started rallying together and most of the market became green. RUT confirmed the bullish hammer by breaking a previous high. SPX's rally further confirmed a successful bullish breakout. Trade 2 - SHOP had a momentum signal had tested and retraced previous support. I placed an entry position on the high of the H2 candle and got filled. Opening Sustainable Momentum 🧑🏻‍🚀 Strategy Signals identify market opening H2 candles through momentum and behaviour change that potentially could indicate a shift in the current price overall structure (Price gaps and ADR %). Risk We use the signal candle's highs and lows for entry and stop loss. If price hits the stop loss, it is clear that the shift we expected did not come to fruitation. Current SL is at 0.25Fib Stock Pool Shortlisted Mid to Small cap Tech stocks that have clear D1 and H2 price movement (Not choppy). Historically has shown price movements aligned to high impact moves in on the RUT index. Focus Focus is never on the signal candle alone, but it's role in the larger structure and the direction it is inclined towards with a minimum Risk & Reward of 2R. Stock must be in a pull back or consolidation area waiting for a broad market momentum to ignite it forward. Character Trend, Positive Skew
NYSE:SHOPLong
by Ronin_trader
SHOP - Oct 24 Opening Sustainable MomentumTechnicals RUT D1 is currently in a range setup. The CPI report showed that US inflation is cooling more slowly than expected, missing forecasts. This caused both the RUT and SPX to gap down at the open. While the SPX held above the support level it had broken the day before, the RUT’s bear gap was significant enough to test the 2172.90 support level. However, price quickly reversed, and the RUT closed with a bullish hammer pattern. The alignment of RUT's H1 bullish hammer pattern and SPX holding above the support line was a signal for a price pivot on the RUT for price to ride the range upwards. SHOP had tested a previous support and continued to move upwards on the H2. I placed an entry position on the high of the H2 candle and got filled. Opening Sustainable Momentum 🧑🏻‍🚀 Strategy Signals identify market opening H2 candles through momentum and behaviour change that potentially could indicate a shift in the current price overall structure (Price gaps and ADR %). Risk We use the signal candle's highs and lows for entry and stop loss. If price hits the stop loss, it is clear that the shift we expected did not come to fruitation. Current SL is at 0.25Fib Stock Pool Shortlisted Mid to Small cap Tech stocks that have clear D1 and H2 price movement (Not choppy). Historically has shown price movements aligned to high impact moves in on the RUT index. Focus Focus is never on the signal candle alone, but it's role in the larger structure and the direction it is inclined towards with a minimum Risk & Reward of 2R. Stock must be in a pull back or consolidation area waiting for a broad market momentum to ignite it forward. Character Trend, Positive Skew
NYSE:SHOPLong
by Ronin_trader
Shopify Inc. Short-term trend: Shopify has been in a short-term uptrend since August, following a bottom around $60. There is a series of higher highs and higher lows, which is a bullish indicator. Long-term trend: Over a longer period, from May to July, the stock showed a downtrend but has recovered strongly. However, it hasn't reached previous highs from earlier in the year, suggesting it's still recovering within a larger range. Support level: The stock found solid support around $60 (marked by the August low). Resistance level: Current resistance is around $85. The price is approaching this level again after a strong bounce. The Bollinger Bands indicate increased volatility recently, with the stock touching the upper band. This typically suggests that the price may be overbought in the short term, and a potential pullback or consolidation could occur before continuing the trend. The recent candlestick indicates strong bullish momentum, with a gap up and a large green candle. However, since it touched the upper Bollinger Band, it would be wise to watch for signs of exhaustion or reversal. The combination of moving averages, Bollinger Bands, and volume indicates a continuation of the bullish trend, but a short-term pullback or consolidation might occur before attempting to break resistance at $85.
NYSE:SHOPLong
by Sahrin
Shopify: Commerce SuccessShopify continues to dominate the e-commerce platform space, making significant strides in expanding its ecosystem for businesses of all sizes. As the company integrates more deeply into social media and international markets, Shopify is well-positioned to benefit from both consumer demand and business needs for seamless online selling. This strong presence in the global e-commerce sector makes Shopify a compelling investment for those looking to capitalize on the continued shift to online retail. NYSE:SHOP Financial Performance Revenue Growth: Shopify reported revenue of $2.05 billion for Q2 2024, representing a 20.7% year-over-year increase. The company’s annual revenue is on track to exceed $7.76 billion in 2024, up 23.18% from the previous year. This strong growth has been driven by the expansion of its merchant solutions and Shopify Payments​ Earnings Beat: Despite macroeconomic headwinds, Shopify has maintained its profitability, with earnings coming in stronger than expected for several quarters. Analysts have upgraded the stock, citing its ability to continue growing in a competitive space Cash Flow: Shopify’s cash flow has remained robust, driven by its diversified revenue streams, including subscription solutions and payment services, allowing it to reinvest in international expansion and new technologies. Strategic Expansion & Innovations Social E-Commerce & Partnerships: Shopify has expanded its integration with social media platforms like YouTube, allowing more merchants to embed shopping experiences into video content. This positions Shopify to capture more sales in a fast-growing segment of e-commerce​ Cloud Infrastructure: The company continues to invest in improving its cloud-based infrastructure, allowing it to scale efficiently as more merchants come onboard. Its Shopify Plus platform, designed for larger enterprises, has seen significant growth. International Expansion: Shopify has continued its aggressive expansion into international markets, particularly in Europe and Asia, increasing its merchant base and revenue potential globally. Technical Analysis Stock Performance: Shopify’s stock has rebounded strongly from its lows earlier in the year, trading at $78.68 as of September 2024. This represents a 4.6% increase from the previous week. With a price target now upgraded to $99 by some analysts, there’s potential for a continued upward trend​ Valuation: Shopify’s price-to-sales (P/S) ratio is around 13.04, which, while high, is justified by its strong revenue growth and market-leading position. This suggests that investors are paying a premium for its potential to continue expanding rapidly​ Fundamental Perspective Shopify is one of the most compelling plays in e-commerce and SaaS. While it doesn’t currently pay a dividend, its high growth rate, strong financial performance, and strategic innovations make it an attractive investment for those looking for exposure to digital commerce. Upcoming Earnings Dates Q3 2024 Earnings: Expected November 2, 2024 Q4 2024 Earnings: Expected February 5, 2025 Shopify’s continued focus on social commerce and international growth makes it a strong buy for long-term investors, particularly those looking to ride the wave of e-commerce expansion globally. $78.68 NYSE:SHOP
NYSE:SHOPLong
by lognomics
Shopify (SHOP): Is It Just the Beginning?Shopify has been one of our best entries this year, and we remain very bullish on it. From a technical analysis perspective, it's hard to make a bearish case for this stock. We've even seen a change of structure after catching the bottom on SHOP. We've already taken some profits off the table and moved our stop loss to break even for the initial trade. We're now expecting this surge to continue, and as a result, we're planning to place another limit order on Shopify, aiming to buy more if the price moves into the $59.38-$54.59 area. We prefer to enter manually to avoid getting triggered by any sudden news events. If our analysis is correct and this is indeed Wave 2, we could see a really nice rally in the near future on Shopify, potentially breaking the $90 mark and moving even higher. Let's see what Shopify has in store for us next.
NYSE:SHOPLong
by freeguy_by_wmc
3
Shopify Turns BullishThis stock looks good and currently preparing for a bullish wave... Good Thursday my fellow trader, I hope you are having a wonderful day. ➖ This week, SHOP produced a very strong session. This session so far removed all the losses produced in an entire month. One single week negated four weeks of bearish action. Couple this with a strong volume breakout and you have a strong bullish signal. ➖ This week also pushed prices above multiple moving averages which is a nice extra. This gives additional support to the bullish bias: 👉 SHOP is very strong buy above 63. Thank you for reading. Namaste.
NYSE:SHOPLong
by AlanSantana
7
Despite positive earnings, $shop still going to new lows.The earnings reaction was positive today which saw shares of shop go up over 20%, however we're already fading the news. The big picture is that we're in the process of a larger market wide correction that will bring all stocks down with it. If we look at the chart, even with the news today, price has just formed another lower high and is setting up for a large move lower. I don't think we'll see a bottom be put into the market until we test $31 or lower. Base case is we likely hit the two lower supports on the chart. Let's see what happens in the coming weeks.
NYSE:SHOPShort
by benjihyam
1
Shopify Surges 22% on Strong Q2 Earnings and Upbeat ForecastShopify Inc. (NYSE: NYSE:SHOP ) experienced a remarkable 22% surge in its stock price following its second-quarter earnings report, which significantly exceeded Wall Street expectations. The Canadian e-commerce giant showcased impressive growth in key financial metrics, despite a challenging consumer spending environment. Financial Highlights - Earnings per Share (EPS): 26 cents, surpassing the 20 cents expected - Revenue: $2.05 billion, beating forecasts of $2.01 billion - Gross Merchandise Volume (GMV): Rose by 22% to $67.2 billion, outpacing the $65.8 billion consensus estimate Shopify’s success is attributed to its robust demand for services that support online merchants, including software solutions, advertising, and payment processing tools. The company's ability to navigate a mixed consumer spending landscape underscores its strong market position. Strong Performance Amid Consumer Caution Despite a cautious consumer spending environment, reflected in recent earnings reports from e-commerce rivals like Amazon, Etsy, and Wayfair, Shopify reported solid growth. The company’s GMV soared 22%, highlighting its ability to capture market share even as broader economic conditions impact consumer behavior. Jeff Hoffmeister, Shopify’s CFO, remarked that the company continued to gain market share, driven by its diverse clientele and robust platform. “Our merchants are outperforming and doing better than others,” stated Shopify President Harley Finkelstein, emphasizing the benefits of the company's broad and varied merchant base. Key Metrics and Achievements - Merchant Solutions Revenue: Increased by 19% to $1.5 billion, driven by GMV growth and Shopify Payments adoption - Subscription Solutions Revenue: Grew by 27% to $563 million, bolstered by a rise in merchant numbers and pricing increases - Gross Profit: Up 25% to $1.0 billion, with a gross margin of 51.1% - Free Cash Flow: Increased to $333 million, compared to $97 million in the same quarter last year - Monthly Recurring Revenue (MRR): Rose 25% to $169 million, with Shopify Plus contributing 31% Positive Outlook for Q3 2024 Shopify (NYSE: NYSE:SHOP ) provided an optimistic forecast for the third quarter. The company expects revenue growth in the low-to-mid-20s percentage range year-over-year and anticipates a slight increase in gross margin. Additionally, Shopify projects a free cash flow margin similar to Q2 2024 and expects to maintain a double-digit free cash flow margin for the remainder of the year. Shopify’s impressive performance amidst a mixed consumer spend environment highlights its strategic positioning as a leader in e-commerce solutions. By focusing on diversified merchant needs and enhancing its platform's capabilities, Shopify continues to strengthen its role in global commerce. Industry Context The company’s success contrasts with challenges faced by other e-commerce players, who have reported cautious consumer spending. Shopify’s ability to thrive despite these headwinds showcases its resilience and strategic advantage in the e-commerce sector. Technical Outlook As of the current time, Shopify stock (NYSE: NYSE:SHOP ) has experienced a notable increase of 22.3%. This significant surge is supported by a bullish Relative Strength Index (RSI) of 58, indicating the likelihood of further price escalation. Additionally, the daily price chart presents a distinct upward gap, suggesting that market dynamics may lead to this gap being filled in subsequent trading sessions. In summary, Shopify's strong quarterly results and positive outlook reflect a company that is not only weathering economic uncertainties but also thriving in a competitive market. As it continues to expand its offerings and drive growth, Shopify remains a standout player in the e-commerce landscape.
NYSE:SHOPLong
by DEXWireNews
8/6/24 - $shop - not "obvious", but buying mid $50s into EPS8/6/24 :: VROCKSTAR :: NYSE:SHOP not "obvious", but buying mid GETTEX:50S into EPS - best in class platform, "uber", "abnb", "amzn", etc... - not "cheap" at 50x EPS (pick your bogey) in an ailing consumer - but generates piles of cash (inflecting) and shy of 3% fcf yield this year but growing top line at 20% yoy is *way* better than cash - what still concerns is the mgmt coming out and spooking with regard to short term growth. remember they're pretty exposed to SMB's which are probably most hurt in the current environment - if you don't "need" to own it, probably still a situation where you put it on a short list and hope you get a discount into results - but realistically this tape is bid (at least for now - more on this later - i'd not make this assuming for the coming week even, but it *is* the case now that we're risk on)... which means any reasonable number sends this up 10% and probably sticks. - we also *did* fill the gap sub $50 (from Nov '23), even though it wasn't filled for long. worth noting. - all in... i am probably going to sit this one out (I'm already playing NASDAQ:SMCI tn and NASDAQ:BLDE in the AM and the latter w/ a reasonably larger size 5% ha) so i'm not a lack of action here. - but if you have the ability to add on a miss to NYSE:SHOP (e.g. you size manage correctly) b/c you have conviction in platform etc. ... you'll make money probably in the YE context buying at today's levels. - i'm going to be a bit greedier and attempt to only dip buy any sort of growth hiccup (if/does/and not expecting it/ but let's see). what do u think? V
NYSE:SHOPLong
by VROCKSTAR
3