SNAP is going down Market Context NYSE:SNAP
Current Price: $9.165
1-Month Move: +5.6% (from $8.68)
1-Year Move: -39.1% (from $15.05)
Year High/Low: $9.96/$7.16
Technicals:
RSI ~69.8 (near overbought)
Above 20-day MA, below 50/200-day MAs (short-term pop in a longer downtrend)
Options Data:
IV Rank: 75th percentile (high premiums)
Put/Call Ratio: 1.25 (bearish skew)
Max Pain: $8.00
High OI: $9.00 puts, $10.00 calls
Historical & Model Insights
Historical Move: SNAP averages 13.5% post-earnings, with a slight bearish bias (6/12 quarters down).
IV Crush: Expect 30–40% IV drop post-print, so time your exit carefully.
Model Consensus (Grok, Claude, Gemini, DeepSeek): Moderately Bearish
Why? Overextended rally, high IV, Max Pain at $8.00, and “sell the news” risk.
Outlier: One model (Llama/Meta) sees bullish momentum from call activity, but it’s drowned out by bearish signals.
Trade Setup
Strategy: Single-leg, naked put (bearish, defined risk)
Instrument: SNAP
Direction: Put
Strike: $8.50 (premium $0.52, fits $0.30–$0.60 target band)
Expiry: 2025-05-02 (first weekly post-earnings)
Entry Price: $0.52
Entry Timing: Pre-earnings close (2025-04-29)
Profit Target: $0.78 (~50% gain)
Stop Loss: $0.26 (50% loss)
Confidence: 65%
Expected Move: ±$1.24 (~13.5%)
Key Risks:
Positive earnings surprise (strong ad revenue or user growth).
Severe IV crush killing put value.
Broad market/tech rally lifting SNAP.
Upbeat guidance sparking a squeeze.
