4/30/25 - $snap - I'm in for a small 1% sub $84/30/25 :: VROCKSTAR :: NYSE:SNAP
I'm in for a small 1% sub $8
- the metric that matters most to me is growing DAU and at this stage, there's visibility to 1 bn DAUs. very few co's nevermind of this size, have that scale
- we know openAI wants to build social. we know Google desperately needs social. etc. etc. and let's look a the metric that's perhaps the only one that puts this all into perspective: value per DAU. pre-mkt sub $8/shr implies nearly $16/DAU.
- yes. i get the massive SBC. it's what's alway made me hold my nose. yes i get the Evan votes my shares discount. but let's get real here, they're not *actually* burning cash. revenue growth is there b/c it follows DAUs. and mgns only continue to improve given the nature of this data-intensive product. oh - and in a world where AI eats everything digital, the only survivors (IMVHO) are ones with some form of human network effect. imagine trying to re-create this size/ scale product with this many users. possible. but for $16/DAU and technically profitable on a cash basis? good f'n luck.
- at this stage, i think we've entered extreme value. i'd love to own a lot more if/as we take out recent range lows in the low $7s, ideally mid $6s. but i'm not going to be overly greedy here and like the reflexivity option to the upside vs. extreme downside case all-in.
lmk if i've missed anything.
V
