Butterfly counts completeharmonic pattern and butterfly counts complete,,, lets see if we get the weekly reversal
SJC1! trade ideas
What's Next for Soybeans?Soybeans
Technicals (November)
November soybean futures traded into support yesterday which we have had outlined as 1013-1014, that has so far held. A break and close below here and a peek below the psychologically significant $10.00 level seems inevitable. On the flip side, 1025-1031 3/4 continues to be the first hurdle, a pocket that was tested but failed against in yesterday's trade, with a high of 1028 3/4. If the Bulls can chew through this pocket, it could propel prices back towards more significant resistance from 1041 3/4-1045. This pocket represents trendline resistance from the end of May peak, as well as the 20-day moving average, both of which have been acting as clear resistance points, as shown in the chart below.
Short Term Bias and Technical Levels of Importance
Bias: Neutral
Resistance: 1046-1050**, 1061 1/2-1062 3/4***
Pivot: 1025-1031 3/4
Support: 1013-1015***, 997-1000**
Weekly Export Sales Estimates (released at 7:30am CT)
Old Crop: 100,000 to 300,000 MT. Last week, old crop sales were reported at 376,400 MT, up noticeably from the previous week and from the prior 4-week average.
New Crop: 400,000 to 900,000 MT. Last week's report came in at 632,100 MT.
Average Estimates for August 12th USDA Report
Production: 4.473 billion bushels
Yield: 52.6 bushels per acre
Harvested Acres: 85.116 million
23/24 Ending Stocks: 350 million bushels
24/25 Ending Stocks: 470 million bushels
Below: Daily Chart of November Soybean Futures, depicting trendline resistance from the May highs as well as the 20-day moving average (in purple).
Check out CME Group real-time data plans available on TradingView here: www.tradingview.com
Disclaimers:
CME Real-time Market Data help identify trading set-ups and express my market views. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs www.tradingview.com
*Trade ideas cited above are for illustration only, as an integral part of a case study to demonstrate the fundamental concepts in risk management under the market scenarios being discussed. They shall not be construed as investment recommendations or advice. Nor are they used to promote any specific products, or services.
Futures trading involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. Trading advice is based on information taken from trade and statistical services and other sources Blue Line Futures, LLC believes are reliable. We do not guarantee that such information is accurate or complete and it should not be relied upon as such. Trading advice reflects our good faith judgment at a specific time and is subject to change without notice. There is no guarantee that the advice we give will result in profitable trades. All trading decisions will be made by the account holder. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.
Soybeans Trade to New LowsSoybeans
Technicals (November)
As with corn, November soybeans were on the verge of a breakout move in the middle of last week's trade, but ultimately failed on Friday which has spilled into weakness and new lows in the early morning trade. Despite trading roughly 50 cents off Friday's high, the daily RSI is not yet registering as "oversold". Minor support near 1025 is still holding this morning, but a failure there and a drop to the psychologically significant $10.00 handle wouldn't be out of the question. 1046-1050 is the hurdle the Bulls want to get back out above to help repair some of the damage that has taken place over the last two trading sessions.
Friday's Commitment of Traders report showed funds were net buyers of roughly 17k futures and options contracts through July 23rd, 90% of which was short covering. That shrunk their net short position to 163,659 futures and options contracts. Broken down that is just 59,942 longs VS 223,601 shorts.
Bias: Neutral
Resistance: 1061 1/2-1062 3/4***, 1085 1/2-1087**
Pivot: 1046-1050
Support: 1025-1031 3/4**, 1000**
Check out CME Group real-time data plans available on TradingView here: www.tradingview.com
Disclaimers:
CME Real-time Market Data help identify trading set-ups and express my market views. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs www.tradingview.com
*Trade ideas cited above are for illustration only, as an integral part of a case study to demonstrate the fundamental concepts in risk management under the market scenarios being discussed. They shall not be construed as investment recommendations or advice. Nor are they used to promote any specific products, or services.
Futures trading involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. Trading advice is based on information taken from trade and statistical services and other sources Blue Line Futures, LLC believes are reliable. We do not guarantee that such information is accurate or complete and it should not be relied upon as such. Trading advice reflects our good faith judgment at a specific time and is subject to change without notice. There is no guarantee that the advice we give will result in profitable trades. All trading decisions will be made by the account holder. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.
Soybean Futures Down to 791$Hello,
We've identified a current opportunity to Short Soybean Futures With a high probability in the 3-Month chart.
The target is set at $791 within a few Months.
Ibrouri
Soybean Futures Down to 791$Hello,
We've identified a current opportunity to Short Soybean Futures With a high probability in the 3-Month chart.
The target is set at $791 within a few Months.
Ibrouri
Soybeans Make New Lows. How Low Can We Go?Soybeans
Technicals (November)
November soybean made new lows yesterday and in the overnight trade but are attempting to find their footing as they trade back into positive territory this morning. The RSI is towards the lower end of the range from this year's trade with a reading of 29.45. The first barrier the Bulls want to get out above this morning comes in from 1085-1087, above that could spur a move towards the technically and psychologically significant 1097-1102 3/4 pocket. Our short-term bias is sitting at Neutral/Bullish, aka cautiously optimistic. Below is a 4-hour chart of November soybeans.
Soybean oil has been on our radar for the last several weeks. It had a nice move higher and a little pullback recently, but we still like the upside potential here. A move above 50 could spark a bigger move.
Bias: Neutral/Bullish
Resistance: 1097-1102****, 1111 1/2-1115***, 1138 1/2-1141***
Pivot: 1085-1087
Support: 1070-1071**
Check out CME Group real-time data plans available on TradingView here: www.tradingview.com
Disclaimers:
CME Real-time Market Data help identify trading set-ups and express my market views. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs www.tradingview.com
*Trade ideas cited above are for illustration only, as an integral part of a case study to demonstrate the fundamental concepts in risk management under the market scenarios being discussed. They shall not be construed as investment recommendations or advice. Nor are they used to promote any specific products, or services.
Futures trading involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. Trading advice is based on information taken from trade and statistical services and other sources Blue Line Futures, LLC believes are reliable. We do not guarantee that such information is accurate or complete and it should not be relied upon as such. Trading advice reflects our good faith judgment at a specific time and is subject to change without notice. There is no guarantee that the advice we give will result in profitable trades. All trading decisions will be made by the account holder. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.
Watchlist for Week Ending 6/21/2024Starting this week i will be positing my watchlist for stocks and futures trades that are on my radar!
VPOC Moved Up and HVN Still Providing SupportTechnical:
Similar to yesterday, I'm bullish on beans. We have support below the current consolidation range and a lot of indications that we could see a strong move up after a bit more choppiness.
Fundamental
A little birdy known as Descartes Labs gave me some insight into the production forecasts for beans yesterday, and signs point to Wasde over-predicting end-of-season yield.
Swing Long: Double Bottom + Higher Low + Up-Trending ChannelTechnical factors:
Double bottom formed with a higher Low on the second retracement, which was also accompanied by volume accumulation.
Long-term upward trend (view weekly chart).
Up-trending channel in the medium-term.
Well-defined risk.
Low-volume node (LVN) that provides for an early/aggressive breakout entry (likely today).
Fundamental Factors:
WASDE yield estimates for beans this season are running high by more than two bushels per acre.
Soybeans Were on a Rollercoaster Ride Last WeekSoybeans
Technicals (July)
July soybean futures had an impressive rally on Thursday, taking prices up to the 50 and 100 day moving averages, which happened to align with the 50% retracement from the April lows to the May highs. The market not only fell flat here but straight up rejected it as prices proceeded to erase the whole rally in Friday's trade. It's tough to draw any conclusion from that price action with a high amount of conviction. With that said, if you tune out the noise and look at the levels, our support and resistance levels remain intact at 1170-1175 and 1199 1/2-1204. A breakout or break down from these levels could lend hand to the next directional move.
Friday's Commitment of Traders report showed funds were net sellers of 45.5k futures and options contracts, 37k of that coming on the short side and about 8.4k of that being long liquidation. That puts the Funds net position at short 59,741 contracts.
Bias: Neutral
Resistance: 1220-1225***, 1232 1/4-1236 3/4***
Pivot: 1199 1/2-1204
Support: 1170-1175***, 1140-1145****
Check out CME Group real-time data plans available on TradingView here: www.tradingview.com
Disclaimers:
CME Real-time Market Data help identify trading set-ups and express my market views. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs www.tradingview.com
*Trade ideas cited above are for illustration only, as an integral part of a case study to demonstrate the fundamental concepts in risk management under the market scenarios being discussed. They shall not be construed as investment recommendations or advice. Nor are they used to promote any specific products, or services.
Futures trading involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. Trading advice is based on information taken from trade and statistical services and other sources Blue Line Futures, LLC believes are reliable. We do not guarantee that such information is accurate or complete and it should not be relied upon as such. Trading advice reflects our good faith judgment at a specific time and is subject to change without notice. There is no guarantee that the advice we give will result in profitable trades. All trading decisions will be made by the account holder. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.
Soybeans Search For Support. Will the Market Find It?Soybeans
Technicals (July)
Like corn, July soybeans marked their sixth consecutive lower close yesterday, which by just quickly looking at it appears to be the longest losing streak since March of 2023. The fact that the RSI (relative strength index) only got to 38 yesterday is a bit of s shocker. Typically, a reading below 30 is what market technicians refer to as "oversold". The Bulls need to see support continue to be defended, we've outlined that as 1170-1175. A break and close below that pocket and there's about 30 cents of air which would take prices back to the tows from late February through April.
Bias: Neutral
Resistance: 1220-1225***, 1232 1/4-1236 3/4***
Pivot: 1199 1/2-1204
Support: 1170-1175***, 1140-1145****
Check out CME Group real-time data plans available on TradingView here: www.tradingview.com
Disclaimers:
CME Real-time Market Data help identify trading set-ups and express my market views. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs www.tradingview.com
*Trade ideas cited above are for illustration only, as an integral part of a case study to demonstrate the fundamental concepts in risk management under the market scenarios being discussed. They shall not be construed as investment recommendations or advice. Nor are they used to promote any specific products, or services.
Futures trading involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. Trading advice is based on information taken from trade and statistical services and other sources Blue Line Futures, LLC believes are reliable. We do not guarantee that such information is accurate or complete and it should not be relied upon as such. Trading advice reflects our good faith judgment at a specific time and is subject to change without notice. There is no guarantee that the advice we give will result in profitable trades. All trading decisions will be made by the account holder. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.
Buy July beans, 1224 limit, 11.99 stop, tgt TBDLooking for early trend developing to the upside on beans
Buy July beans, 1224 limit, 11.99 stop, tgt TBD
ZSN LONG WITH MAYBE BIG POTENTIALThis ZSN has reversed and has formed a new daily uptrend with big potential, if it goes up to the blue line level, keep adjusting the stop loss on the way up, and expect a few pullbacks on the way up.
Beans on the moveFormed a double bottom against yearly pivot level. Now on the way up again. First target S3
Beans on the reboundBeans made a second bottom at the same yearly fib pivot. See if it can get past the last swing high after a bounce I noted earlier this year on the same level.
Soybeans testing key supportSoybeans
Technicals (May)
May soybean futures broke lower but found support at our 4-star support pocket which we've outlined in recent reports as 1128 1/2-1133 1/2. The Bulls need to see this pocket defended, a failure to do so could accelerate the selling pressure. Below this support pocket and prices are back in uncharted territory, the next support level would be the psychologically significant $11.00 level.
Bias: Neutral/Bearish
Resistance: 1155-1160***, 1170-1175***
Pivot: 1150
Support: 1128 1/2-1133 1/2****, 1100**
Fund Positioning
Friday's Commitment of Traders report showed Funds were net sellers of roughly 1k contracts, putting their net short position at 139,310 contracts. Broken down, that
is 54,057 longs VS 193,367 shorts.
Seasonal Trends
(Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results)
Below is a look at price averages for November soybeans, using the 5, 10, 15, 20, and 30 year averages.
Check out CME Group real-time data plans available on TradingView here: www.tradingview.com
Disclaimers:
CME Real-time Market Data help identify trading set-ups and express my market views. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs www.tradingview.com
*Trade ideas cited above are for illustration only, as an integral part of a case study to demonstrate the fundamental concepts in risk management under the market scenarios being discussed. They shall not be construed as investment recommendations or advice. Nor are they used to promote any specific products, or services.
Futures trading involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. Trading advice is based on information taken from trade and statistical services and other sources Blue Line Futures, LLC believes are reliable. We do not guarantee that such information is accurate or complete and it should not be relied upon as such. Trading advice reflects our good faith judgment at a specific time and is subject to change without notice. There is no guarantee that the advice we give will result in profitable trades. All trading decisions will be made by the account holder. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.
Soybeans Drift LowerSoybeans
Technicals (May)
May soybean futures attempted to hold ground yesterday, but it lacked conviction. Prices are giving back those gains in today’s trade. 1155-1160 is the first resistance pocket the Bulls need to overcome to help spark a bigger relief rally. A failure to do so keeps the potential for new lows alive and well.
Bias: Neutral/Bearish
Resistance: 1155-1160, 1170-1175
Pivot: 1150
Support: 1128 1/2-1133 1/2****
Fund Positioning
Friday’s Commitment of Traders report showed Funds were net sellers of roughly 1k contracts, putting their net short position at 139,310 contracts. Broken down that is 54,057 longs VS 193,367 shorts.
Seasonal Trends
(Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results)
Below is a look at price averages for November soybeans, using the 5, 10, 15, 20, and 30 year averages.
Check out CME Group real-time data plans available on TradingView here: www.tradingview.com
Disclaimers:
CME Real-time Market Data help identify trading set-ups and express my market views. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs www.tradingview.com
*Trade ideas cited above are for illustration only, as an integral part of a case study to demonstrate the fundamental concepts in risk management under the market scenarios being discussed. They shall not be construed as investment recommendations or advice. Nor are they used to promote any specific products, or services.
Futures trading involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. Trading advice is based on information taken from trade and statistical services and other sources Blue Line Futures, LLC believes are reliable. We do not guarantee that such information is accurate or complete and it should not be relied upon as such. Trading advice reflects our good faith judgment at a specific time and is subject to change without notice. There is no guarantee that the advice we give will result in profitable trades. All trading decisions will be made by the account holder. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.
Soybeans Under PressureSoybeans
Technicals (May)
May soybean futures broke back below support yesterday which accelerated the selling pressure and keeps the door open for a retest of the February lows in play, that comes in from 1128 1/2-1133 1/2.
Bias: Neutral
Resistance: 1155-1160***, 1170-1175***
Pivot: 1150
Support: 1128 1/2-1133 1/2****
Fund Positioning
Friday's Commitment of Traders report showed Funds were net sellers of roughly 1k contracts, putting their net short position at 139,310 contracts. Broken down that is 54,057 longs VS 193,367 shorts.
Seasonal Trends
(Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results)
Below is a look at price averages for November soybeans, using the 5, 10, 15, 20, and 30 year averages.
Check out CME Group real-time data plans available on TradingView here: www.tradingview.com
Disclaimers:
CME Real-time Market Data help identify trading set-ups and express my market views. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs www.tradingview.com
*Trade ideas cited above are for illustration only, as an integral part of a case study to demonstrate the fundamental concepts in risk management under the market scenarios being discussed. They shall not be construed as investment recommendations or advice. Nor are they used to promote any specific products, or services.
Futures trading involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. Trading advice is based on information taken from trade and statistical services and other sources Blue Line Futures, LLC believes are reliable. We do not guarantee that such information is accurate or complete and it should not be relied upon as such. Trading advice reflects our good faith judgment at a specific time and is subject to change without notice. There is no guarantee that the advice we give will result in profitable trades. All trading decisions will be made by the account holder. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.
CBOT soybeans sink on technical selling, spillover from lower grChicago Board of Trade (CBOT) soybean futures dropped on Tuesday on technical selling and spillover support from lower corn and wheat.
-CBOT May soybeans ended down 11-3/4 cents at $11.74 per bushel after touching the lowest level since March 8.
-Selling accelerated as the benchmark contract broke through technical chart support at its 20- and 50-day moving averages and a recent low posted last Thursday.
-CBOT May soymeal settled $5.10 lower at $328.30 per short ton, and May soyoil gained 0.36 cent to settle at 48.60 cents per pound.
-Stiff competition for U.S. export sales from Brazil and concerns about demand from top-importer China still hang over the market.
CBOT soybeans end weaker on dull demand, lower grainsChicago Board of Trade soybean futures eased on Monday on good supplies, seasonally slowing U.S. export demand and spillover pressure from falling corn and wheat prices.
-CBOT May soybeans settled down 5-3/4 cents at $11.85-3/4 per bushel.
-CBOT May soymeal settled $4.30 lower at $333.40 per short ton, and May soyoil gained 0.29 cent to settle at 48.24 cents per pound.
-Stiff competition for U.S. export sales from Brazil and concerns about demand from top-importer China still hang over the market.
-Brazil's soybean harvest for the 2023/24 cycle had reached 74% of the planted area as of last Thursday, agribusiness consultancy AgRural said on Monday, up 5 percentage points from the previous week.
-Traders continued to digest U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) data released last Thursday that projected U.S. 2024 soy plantings at 86.5 million acres, in line with trade expectations and up 3% from 2023. The acreage total is likely to shift with changing spring planting conditions.
-The USDA on Monday morning said export inspections of U.S. soybeans totaled 414,484 metric tons in the week ended March 28, below trade estimates for at least 500,000 tons.
-The USDA is due to release its monthly soy crush report later on Monday. Analysts surveyed by Reuters on average expect the government to report that processors crushed 196.4 million bushels of soybeans in February, up 0.8% from January and up 11.0% from the same month a year earlier.
Are Soybeans Setup For a Bigger Rally?Thursday marked the last trading day of the month and first quarter, which coincides with one of the more highly anticipated USDA reports of the year; quarterly stocks and prospective plantings.
The USDA estimates that there will be 86.51 million acres of soybeans planted in the U.S. this year, that was a hair below the average analyst estimate of 86.53 million but still nearly 3 million acres more than last year. Quarterly stocks were reported at 1.845 billion bushels, this was slightly above the average estimate of 1.828 billion, and above last years 1.687 billion.
With the headline numbers coming in close to expectations, the market was little changed at the close. From a technical perspective though, the Bulls were happy to see support near $12.00 hold, which is both technically and psychologically significant. As you can see on the chart, $12.00 has acted as somewhat of an inflection point through the first three months of the year. On top of that, you also have two major moving averages (the 20 and 50 day) coming in there. The 20 day appears to be nearing a crossover of the 50-day moving average which is often looked at as a bullish signal by technicians.
The big hurdle for the Bulls to overcome comes in from 1225-1232. If the Bulls can achieve consecutive closes above this pocket we could see that spur prices higher with the next upside objective being the 100-day moving average. Above that, and there’s the potential to fill the gap from January 2nd, which comes in from 1305 ¼-1311 ¾.
Check out CME Group real-time data plans available on TradingView here: www.tradingview.com
Disclaimers:
CME Real-time Market Data help identify trading set-ups and express my market views. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs www.tradingview.com
*Trade ideas cited above are for illustration only, as an integral part of a case study to demonstrate the fundamental concepts in risk management under the market scenarios being discussed. They shall not be construed as investment recommendations or advice. Nor are they used to promote any specific products, or services.
Futures trading involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. Trading advice is based on information taken from trade and statistical services and other sources Blue Line Futures, LLC believes are reliable. We do not guarantee that such information is accurate or complete and it should not be relied upon as such. Trading advice reflects our good faith judgment at a specific time and is subject to change without notice. There is no guarantee that the advice we give will result in profitable trades. All trading decisions will be made by the account holder. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.
