SJC1! trade ideas
Trade #6 / Tuesday, December 1, 2020 / 21:17 / Sell ZSTrade #6 / Tuesday, December 1, 2020 / 21:17 / Sell ZS
Soybeans: Trending up, buy on dips...I think we have a nice setup to buy the dip in Soybean futures or using $SOYB. It's a rather big contract, so keep that in mind if trading futures.
There's a long term trend signal active, for many more months still, so any dip is a buy if you're patient enough.
I highlight a trend that reached its peak in the daily timeframe here, so, a retracement entry is likely to materialize in the coming days and weeks.
Keep an eye on it, don't miss out on the big gains to be had in this market.
As @timwest pointed out, fundamentals for Soybeans and the long term chart are ridiculously bullish now, so, it is going to be very hard to hold on to positions for long enough to reap the benefits, and specially hard to join the trend for most people. The droughts in Brazil are affecting crops, and there's a huge demand from China, since the soybean producing regions were affected by floods recently, there's also a big need for soybeans to produce pork in South America, like the huge farms they are setting up in the South of Argentina.
As a bonus, if the US wants to hurt China, their best bet is to make the food prices go up, specially Soybeans. They had been buying commodities for cheap for a long time until now. That might be changing already, and considering the expectations I have of rising inflation and interest rates, in a post Pandemic world, this is further fuel for the fire in this rally here.
Cheers,
Ivan Labrie.
Week 49: ZSF 2021 Still bullishWeekly analysis for ZSF2021
Week 49: 30 November to 04 December 2020
Here is the playbook for Week 49, overall it is still Bullish.
(a) Currently on H4, the price is forming a bullish flag with $12,000 is the current Resistance Level.
(b) It may not be a straight forward bullish; the real key level is at $11,161.50 (area).
What does this mean?
(1) If the price make a clean break on $12,000 then we put a Buy Limit at $12,000 area
(2) If the price just make a shy break on $12,000 level, then we are expecting either a False Breakout or another price compression.
(3) If the price cannot break $12,000 it is still Bullish, don't get trapped by thinking that the trend has changed. The direction is only changing after the price enters $11,161.50 and below.
Therefore, overall this week is still bullish bias; take a rational decision, don't get emotion involved.
Disclaimer :
The analysis above for educational purposes only, I do not responsible for your losses. Please adjust your own lot-sizing according to your appetite.
If you are benefiting from my trade opinion, please buy me coffee.
As always, move your SL when you are in the profit zone.
Gold Commodity Markets11.23.20 I wanted to finish up on my GOLD review from this weekend. The main point that I wanted to make about gold is that there are different trades for different types of traders in that area, and while you may understand how markets like this can appeal to both buyers and sellers in a fairly narrow range, it doesn't mean that it will be your kind of a trait because of your rules. In my own trading, I had to make a distinction between knowing how to read the market, and what markets are suitable to trade regardless of how I read the market. At some point you have to decide what type of trading is most suitable for your personality, and your capabilities. Trading is a business and you want to stay in business, and you want to like your business, and you wanted to be dependable. It doesn't make sense to trade your business as a lotto ticket. Some businesses require a little less time, and this is important because the determination of what kind of a trader you want to be changes many aspects of your trading including the amount of time that you will have to be watching your trading screen.
I ran through some commodity markets that I think will be useful to my students who are far enough along that they may benefit by looking at some commodity markets. There are many reasons for these markets to move higher and lower, The probability of inflationary influences on the markets is very high, and I suspect that you'll see some great trading agricultural markets as well as other commodities markets moving higher as inflation becomes more apparent.
Week 48: ZSF 2021 No sign of weakness, key level is at $1,150Weekly analysis for ZSF2021
Week 48: 23 to 27 November 2021
From 1st June 2020 until today, Soybean prices has been very (strong) bullish, especially in November.
On the weekly Time Frame we can spot the decision level is at $1,150, however from the current price is still quite far.
There is no sign of reversal yet, even on Daily chart, momentum still slower, sporadic with some keen buyers trying to push the price higher.
Practically we have not seen any strong Sellers come to intervene, perhaps just like us and other traders, we just wait and see on how high the price will go.
It is wiser to wait, observe and we enter when there is a firm confirmation on the price.
No trade call this week, risky to long and not wise to short now. Stay Calm and enjoy the Black Friday shopping.
Disclaimer :
The analysis above for educational purposes only, I do not responsible for your losses. Please adjust your own lot-sizing according to your appetite.
If you are benefiting from my trade opinion, please buy me coffee.
As always, move your SL when you are in the profit zone.
Week 47: ZSF 2021 Short OpportunityWeekly analysis for ZSF2021
Week 47: 16 to 20 November 2021
After a long rally, retracement was formed (in a mini down trend channel) and it broke to fill the Supply Zone.
There two ways to trade this formation:
(a) Aggressive Mode
Solely based on the Price Action and we can reap better Risk Reward Ratio by sacrificing a small risk.
Sell Limit at $1,153
Stop Loss at $1,160
Take Profit at $1,124
RR = 4.14R
(b) Conservative Mode
We wait for the confirmation to enter, it is a very safe trade with a decent ratio.
Sell Stop at $1,139
Stop Loss at $1,152
Take Profit at $1,124
RR = 1.31R
Use your own judgement and risk factor to decide.
My personal opinion, this week ZS will have a rather big movement and from there it will be many ranging days ahead.
If you are familiar with "Cancan Setup", you may know what I am referring to.
Disclaimer :
The analysis above for educational purposes only, I do not responsible for your losses. Please adjust your own lot-sizing according to your appetite.
If you are benefiting from my trade opinion, please buy me coffee.
As always, move your SL when you are in the profit zone.
Big picture look at SoybeansThe market structure of soybeans has changed significantly on the smaller scale. Looking at the big picture, the range of estimates for potential highs is quite wide. Potential highs in the soybean market this year and for the next 5 years could be very high. Advised to take this big picture look very carefully, the backside of such strong rallies can be quite steep and painful for those caught on the long side. Also, not shown is the volatility within the daily and weekly scale on.
ZSX2020More obvious situation occur in Soybeans as the spread is much lower showing weakness in demand. COT report indicates overbough positions of big players and there is not much space for further growth. Eventhogh the drough in North China stimuls the demand for US Soybeans. The bear spreads in Soybeans are very good opportunity to entry this big growth recently to speculate on slowing down of that mooning move.
Week 46: ZSF 2021 Buy at retest levelWeekly analysis for ZSF2021
Week 46: 09 to 13 November 2021
Market was pushing the price higher and made a new Higher High last week.
The Head and Shoulder formation was not happening, on Friday the momentum was slower and today not much happening too in Asian session.
Overall trend is still bullish, but don't jump to the band wagon now; we better wait at a retest level to long.
My personal trade call for this week :
Buy Limit at $1,084
Stop Loss at $1,061
Take Profit at $1,130
RR = 1.92R
Special note :
As there is no reference on the Take Profit, we do not know how bullish it will be.
My advise, watch for the Price Action in H1 and H4; they will give you an early warning whether to close manually or let it ride.
If I happen to watch it, I will update it here on comment section.
Disclaimer :
The analysis above for educational purposes only, I do not responsible for your losses. Please adjust your own lot-sizing according to your appetite.
If you are benefiting from my trade opinion, please buy me coffee.
As always, move your SL when you are in the profit zone.
Soybean Trend Change Hello!
This idea is based upon a cycles analysis as well as a system that is best described a conformal geometry.
Risk to reward ratio is approximately 1:10, currently short 3 contracts with the intention to roll them as necessary. This idea only covers the trade itself, the analysis behind it will be outlined in another idea published to my profile. Stay tuned.
Week 45: ZSF 2021 Consolidation PhaseWeekly analysis for ZSF2021
Week 45: 02 to 06 November 2021
Overall, this week I am very bearish bias.
There are two spots of level which give us a good profit ratio:
(1) Sell Limit at $1,065
(2) Sell Stop at $1,035
There is no trade call today (this week), just a few guidelines:
a. If you are shorting now or still haven't closed your trade from last week position, the best Take Profit level is at $1,036
b. If you are looking to sell, wait for the price to breach $1,035 or bounce to $1,065 or split your lot size with heavy on top.
c. Stop Loss is at $1,067 (close all your short positions if the price is closed at this level or higher)
d. Take Profit is at $1,000
e. Last advise, keep in mind that now the price is forming the head, it needs to form the right shoulder before going down.
Disclaimer:
The analysis above for educational purposes only, I do not responsible for your losses. Please adjust your own lot-sizing according to your appetite.
If you are benefiting from my trade opinion, please buy me coffee.
As always, move your SL when you are in the profit zone.
Not so sexy Soybean will shine once again!Check out this quarterly linear chart for Soybean Futures. Along with sugar and silver, very inflation sensitive move above to get going. A bullish cross on true strength index deep below zero could signal a strong move up. Very early still yet. $zs_f #soybean #inflation #debt #gold #silver $slv $gld #fintwit $sil $silj $gdx $gdxj
SoyBean - Wedge Breakout Multi Timeframe Sell IdeaD1 - Bullish cycle completed with bearish divergence.
H4 - Wedge breakout. Looking to sell pullbacks
Week 44: ZSF 2021 Bullish compressionWeekly analysis for ZSF2021
Week 44: 26 to 30 October 2021
Soybeans is persistently soaring higher and higher, there was no sign of slowing down.
Even today, there is no strong seller sighted yet; looking at from the momentum movement, the market may show a sign of deceleration.
However, until we see a Strong Seller, then we can say that the momentum has changed direction.
Actually I won't rush to sell, because the data is not complete yet.
The only reason I will place a Pending Sell Order, it's because of the compression shape, or commonly known as ascending wedge.
Again, this is a risky trade, no reference to the left and let's speculate. We have a good RRR for this trade.
My personal trade call:
Sell Limit: $1,082
Stop Loss: $1,090
Take Profit: $1,047
Risk Rewards Ratio: 4.67R
Disclaimer :
The analysis above for educational purposes only, I do not responsible for your losses. Please adjust your own lot-sizing according to your appetite.
If you are benefiting from my trade opinion, please buy me coffee.
As always, move your SL when you are in the profit zone.
Cup and HandleContract November 20
Possible stop below handle low or mid cup (MC)
Long entry level 977
Not a recommendation
ZS1! - Soybeans futures - Elliottwave analysis Welcome guys,
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ZS1! - Soybeans futures - It is within flat correction as ABC, where 1st of C wave down seems over and 2nd wave is in progress, so sell it down with stops above 1071 near 1056-63 zone for target zone up to 1028 or lower. The trade is having medium odd set up.
Give thumbs up if you really like the trade idea.
