SJC1! trade ideas
Soybeans Soon to Move to 1080Soybeans is currently in a large wedge pattern that once breaks won't complete until 1200. We also are diverging and oversold on multiple time frames. We have counted 1 wave up and the beginning of a completed wave 1 of 3. The most powerful move will be soon being a wave 3 of 3. My target for wave is at least 1080 based on fib levels and the previous resistance. Invalidation of this view will be a move below 840.
Soybeans Sell Set Up Wave AnalysisWe did receive a bullish pop up in price as I forecasted in my last analysis I published on Soybeans. I believe there will still be another push down in price to finish the overall correction. I am looking for a sell set up
Soybeans Buy Set Up Wave AnalysisIt appears that price is finding support near the last low December 2019. I am looking for a bullish reaction that will either prove to be an impulse that go make new highs or a correction that will pull back against the recent move down. Either way I see a good buy set up to at least the 900 area that is labeled first targets
It bounced the previous lowWe can clearly see that soybean has jumped the previous low of 867.
Could be a good time to put a long. It is a good position with a good profit over risk. The risk is if it drops 865, therefore it's a minimal risk, while if it is going to go up it will give a good profit.
Food prices to keep getting cheaper [+Photosynthesis tuto]Seems like an easy prediction.
With rising levels of CO2 agri prices will keep going down.
And I guess interest in soft commodity futures will keep going down.
Especially noobs, they could not care less, they want to chase the next high tech big thing that will make them rich, er typo I mean that will make them lose their shirt. Statistically they are better off playing lottery or going to the casino.
Until we run out of fertilizers (At current consumption levels, we will run out of known phosphorus reserves in around 80 years, but consumption will not stay at current levels). Unless we replace those by a new type of fertilizer OR find more phosphorus. Brace yourselves for yet a new mass hysteria clownery "the world will end soon because we will run out of phosphorus".
Remember "we will run out of water" "world will get overpopulated" "co2 will cause mass extinctions" "acid rains will destroy everything" and so on.
I think fertilizers support half of the planet population, this means they double yields.
And CO2 increased yields by something like 20% I think.
I can 100% guarentee without a single doubt there will be a "science settled very serious" mass hysteria fear about fertilizers (P) levels getting low in the future lmao.
This is what plants need:
Plants also need magnesium and sulfur. Not sure what else.
I think they can synthesize all vitamins from C H O N but I really don't know for sure. I just know those are the typical atoms in vitamins.
Expressed in dollars, the monetary benefit:
www.co2science.org
An extract:
I think that to produce 1kg of grain something like 100 liters of water is required.
Just because that's how it has been for centuries does not mean it is "normal".
If one is actually able to think out of his little box and little dogmas, he would realize agriculture uses huge amounts of water, and also, many plants (C4 type - not to be mistaken with the explosives) have even evolved to be more water efficient and to survive with very little CO2. I think also when you measure the CO2 around crops during the day you notice they sucked it all up (concentration is down a big amount maybe 50%).
So anyway, as CO2 goes up, plants will use less water (or use the same amount to grow bigger).
There is going to be possibly new plants evolve, the old world plants will make a comeback, and alot more but I'll save this for another idea.
The CO2 famine is over for plants they're going to take over.
Here is corn & sugar:
I don't know how agr companies work...
Better productivity means they get more productive? But prices drop so they make less?
They probably are undervalued right? At least compared to high tech for sure.
Of course this is all cancelled if primitive monkeys of abysmal stupidity remove CO2 from our atmosphere "to save the planet".
Soybeans Futures and the Phase One China dealLooking at how the Soybean Futures have reacted very negatively since the signing of the Phase One China deal on the 15th of January, it doesn't seem that there is much expectation that this deal will drive any meaningful increase in purchases. It will be interesting to see how they react as we enter a traditionally bullish seasonal period at the end of the month.
Soybeans Buy Setup Wave AnalysisPrice could be coming to a end of a deep corrective structure. Price seems to be finding support now. I would be looking for price to create new highs.
Elliott Wave View: Soybean Impulsive Rally Favors UpsideSoybean (ZS_F) cycle from May 13, 2019 low shows an incomplete 5 swing sequence, favoring further upside to end 7 swing double zigzag structure. On the 4 hour chart below, wave (X) ended at 867.4. Wave (Y) higher is unfolding as a zigzag Elliott Wave structure where wave A of (Y) remains in progress. The internal subdivision of wave A is unfolding as an impulsive structure. Up from 867.4, wave ((i)) ended at 903.4 and pullback in wave ((ii)) ended at 888.2.
The instrument has resumed higher in wave ((iii)) towards 950.4 and pullback in wave ((iv)) ended at 938.4. Expect wave ((v)) of A to end soon. Afterwards, Soybean should correct the cycle from December 3, 2019 low within wave B before the rally resumes. We don’t like selling the proposed pullback and expect buyers to appear in the sequence of 3, 7, 11 swing for more upside as far as pivot at 867.4 low stays intact. Potential target higher is 100% – 123.6% Fibonacci extension from May 13, 2019 low which comes at 1021 – 1057 area.
Soybean Short - Corrective wave confluenceLooking for a possible short on Soybeans down to an area of support and confluence of the channel downward channel. at 882. We are currently hitting year long ascending trendline bottom that we broke and have yet to retest, as well as the 38.2% fib entrancement level of the larger move. Price has seemed to lose momentum at this level. looking to price action for confirmation that a move to the downside is probable. This could break through that year long trendline and we could be looking for a move to test highs at 940, if not looking for TP at 2 levels, 882 and 855
Soybeans - Short | Bearish trendSoybeans has been getting pummeled the past month with aggressive selling. the past few days, soybeans has experienced a final breather and has been in a smaller corrective wave. Currently at the top of the channel after this wave, looking to see if the channel holds, otherwise looking for a breakout and retest of the channel to the long side. If price holds at top of channel and a confirms price will move back down, looking to 860 855 level as that is a strong support level.
High time to sell soybean This chart is beautiful as it presents a great selling opportunity.
Now the profit target (red dotted line) is also the 618 FIB level so if it reaches there
,expect some pullback as well. It could also retrace a little and continue to dive
southwards to meet the gap to be closed.
However, if the price action does reverse and pullback aggressively back into the bullish trend line, then this selling order is cancelled.
Be flexible, be like water.
Short ZS soybean Entry on a 30min time frame but price just had an exhaustion gap into a weekly downward trendline.
Short ZS - Soybean
a punto de salir...... LONGLa soja esta a punto de quebrar la linea de tendencia bajista que se origino cuando fue su maximo historico en 2008, podremos empezar a ver unos 1000 pts como idea basica.
Soybeans SHORT mean reversion to 865Nov Beans is back at the 38.2 Gann retrace from CTN High to Low, meeting resistance on the 2x1 Gann Lines (purple) from CTN all time High and 2nd CTN top. Move has been based on optimism from Chinese purchases of US Soybeans as a goodwill gesture to prep for October meetings. A move to the 1x1 Gann Line (dotted) is anticipated as we drift toward October seasonal lows before talks transpire. The 5yr 50 MA price channel via Spreadcharts shows Beans extended to the 5 year SD2 MA @9.00. Expecting a move toward the 1x1 lines (8.65) median line which is also the SD mean of the 5 yr MA of price given no new developments in Chinese US relations till October talks, and typical of mean reversion of price and seasonal trend.
Sold Vertial Call Spread Short Call 910 39d exp Long Call 920 39 day exp
Sold ZSX19 @ 8.99 Stop 913, TP 8.64
Gann fan scales
1) Michael Jenkins Initial Impulse 1x8 line aligned to high 2
2) 2x1 aligned to lowest low of new swings retracements (authors method)
Using Gann Fans/Retracements with Impulse/Retrace Scaling Part 2Finished analysis of 2014 Nov Beans using price scaled Gann fans.
Using Gann Fans/Retracements with Impulse/Retrace Scaling Part 1How to setup simple price scaled Gann fans to determine support and resistance out in time. Gann's geometrical method advanced by scales derived from highs and lows in the wave formation to forecast future price expansion and SR zones.
Soybean#Soybean H1 Buy
ID : 1-04
At : 874.7
SL : 868.6 - Risk 61 pip
TP : 894.0 - Reward 193 pip
Date : 2019/09/12
Soybeans itching to climb, resume the UpBollinger tightness, appropriate deep pullback, oats a harbinger signalling a go, WASDE report tomorrow, frost worries... Take your pick, maybe even a trade war truce?
