SJC1! trade ideas
CBoT soybeans worth a short from hereSoybeans:
Price is following our preferred path only reluctantly and the earlier drawn 'bear-flag-pattern' is far from perfect. Still, we keep our eyes to the downside for this price and we have even trailed our target a bit down to the 870/850 zone which is some 10% below the current value. We should allow price to trade a bit up from here to the 1020/1025 zone where it would trade into a resistance area and an overshoot to the 1030/1035 will be tolerated as well. If price would break latter level to the upside we would have to return to our drawing boards and reconsider our bias.
August Soybean Futures LongThe market has recently made a valid double bottom with some bullish divergence on the RSI Indicator Below. This is also a pretty good zone of prior support/resistance and a 61.8 Fib Retracement of the previous move up leg. I am projecting the market to push higher into the 1080 range before it creates a small pullback from that zone. It definitely has the potential to continue its push up to retest the 1200 level like it did in June. Time will tell. Let me know your thoughts.
CBoT soybeansSoybeans:
Price has been moving sideways for most of the week but made an impulsive move up of 2% during Friday's session which makes us believe that a bit more upside is in the cards for the coming week after which we still anticipate price to reverse and resume its downtrend. A decisive close above the 1025 level will bring price to our critical resistance level of 1065 after which we will have to start reconsidering our bear bias. For now we still anticipate price to trade to 900 and possibly lower.
CBoT soybeans long play failedSoybeans:
Price did not reverse during the first 2 trading sessions of the past week but made a lower low instead which made us decide to abandon our bull scenario for now. Instead we are now looking for a further loss of value of another 10-12% before the run up is to be expected.
Price did make a solid move to the upside of 2.5% during Friday's session which indicates further increase on very short term (Monday/Tuesday next) after which we expect price to resume its move to the downside and start looking for the 900 level.
If and when price breaks the 1060/1065 level to the upside we will pull our previous bull scenario out of the drawer again but for now we keep the eye to the downside.
Soybean donwtrend continuationI find risk/reward of this trade quite attractive. Sell short at current price with stop above 1000. Fist (small) target @ 976, second target @ 942, third target @ 882.
CBoT Soybeans long play opportunity with a tight stopSoybeans:
Price made a strong move to the downside of some 2.5% after which it revered leaving a relatively long bottom tail for the daily candle. Price reached our target a bit earlier than we would have expected which is not a problem as such but the structure of the latest move is a problem.
Thus far we stick too our earlier casus in which we see price make a 20/30% swing up from here but we want to see the price reversal already during Monday/Tuesday failing which we will probably have to reconsider our bull ride bias. A long play opportunity is there at the opening but with tight stop.
Soybeans CBoT stopped out and waiting for a long play set up nowSoybeans:
Price corrected up during the first half of the past week and still has to complete its move down a bit further to the 10/9.75 region where we expect price to reverse and make a move up of 20%. Traders who entertained the short play last week should have been stopped out and if not their stops were not tight enough so they are more rather lucky than smart.
We expect price to touch our targeted level during the coming week from where a long play can be entertained with an upswing potential of 20/25% in price.
buy again if this super resistance got break up, otherwise we bobuy again if this super resistance got break up, otherwise we book profit here.
CBoT soybeans short play with a tight stopSoybeans:
Price opened the week with a gap down and lost some 10% of its value in just three sessions after which Friday's session corrected same a bit so that the week ended with a net loss of 7% after breaking Thursday's low. We keep our bias unchanged to a bit more downside from here and will start looking for a reverse from the 1000 region. Traders who entertained a short play on last week's opening put their stops at entry level or lower.
Soybeans CBoT short playSoybeans:
Price made a solid move up during the week and traded back up to the lower line of the previous price channel.
Our initial short term bias with 10.00 as target remains unchanged. However, price traded a bit higher than what we would have liked to see which could be an indication that price wants to trade up even higher to test its previous hight at 11.8625 but we are not too certain that that will happen indeed. As far as we can see there are three options from here and now: 1) do nothing, 2) take a short swing with a full position and risk a 4.3% rally against the position before the stop is hit or 3) enter a short play at the opening with just half a position and keep option open to either let it stop out at a 4.3% loss, add to it at higher level, let it play in case the decline materializes next week.
Long term soy bean contract spread narrowingThis trade is to try and take advantage of my thinking that the price between the two contracts will become less. This trade could see a large loss, before we see gains, but has a nice margin relief.
#ZS1!(Soybeans): Further Upside To Be SeenSoybeans had some good upside in the impulse leg, we then had corrective structure where price will go to the highs Hope you have a tested trading strategy to trade this move when it starts.
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Soybeans CBoT: missed the short play opportunity and now waitingSoybeans:
Price did not bounce on the lower line of the ascending price channel as we expected and broke through its support to the down side. Price tested same (now former) supportive line which has now become resistance (although we keep it drawn in green for now) during Thursday's session and traded impulsively lower during Friday's session. Price has completed its wave (3) up and is now performing a corrective wave (4) with probably a target of 1025/975 from where we favor price to bounce back up to initiate and complete its wave (5) with higher highs towards the end of the year. We have missed the opportunity to entertain a short play simply because of the initial stop-loss level at 1160 which would be some 7.5% above the current price and which would be too costly. If and when price would correct up to 1125/1140 during the coming week traders can still consider a short play with stop at 1160 (which would be an acceptable 2%). Other than that we will have to wait for the next opportunity which will be a long play at lower levels.
Soybeans CBoT waiting for a short play opportunitySoybeans:
Price reached the lower boundary of the ascending price channel and bounced up from there during Friday's session. The candle was a Bullish Engulfing candle which usually is a very reliable reversal pattern. From here we favor a move up during the coming 5 to 10 sessions to the upper boundary of the ascending channel which will offer a short play opportunity. Nothing to be done for now except waiting.
Short soybeans at the top of this long-term downtrendSpeculative money is the reason behind last weeks rally and profit making will probably be done this next week as soybeans has reached the top of this long-term downtrend.
Climate conditions at the north american crop have been good so far. A transition to El Nina is happening and that could bring hot and dry weather next month. But until then...there is an opportunity to short.
Soybeans almost ready for a short playSoybeans:
Price reached our target some time ago already and is performing an overshoot which is nothing unusual as it is just not possible to predict exactly where the waves will end. The EW principle gives us a complete count but that doesn't mean that a top is on the chart indeed already. Taking a position just on basis of the fact that you can see the EW count seemingly completed is too much of a gamble which we avoid at all times.
The broadening wedge that we have drawn in the chart is still intact and price has continued to close within the boundaries of same wedge although price has been trading outside of same as well. This pattern is a typical indicator that the end of the trend is imminent but is also no guarantee that a reverse is in place here and now.
Fridays' shape of the candle is another indication the the reverse could be there with the spike up and the close back down, leaving a candle with a very long topping tail which tells us that the bulls ran out of air.
All together serious indications that a reverse is in the making which drives us to the edge to move and entertain a short play. But for now we keep our powder dry and wait for a confirmation in the price move. This is not yet the time and level to go short but it certainly is not the time and place to go long either. Patience and discipline is the name of the game now..
Ideally, price would now start trading down, then break its support at the 1125/1135 region, then bounce back up a bit from the lower boundary of the broadening wedge, then test back the 1125/1135 support/resistance zone and reverse back down again for a trade down of some 10%. The test back would then be our hotspot to entertain a short play.
