SJC1! trade ideas
Soybeans - Small buy with tight stop at last supportWe have quite a mixed picture on Soybeans, as it has really not been trending, still moves in a range, and possibly in a flag. The patterns on both weekly and daily time frames are really interesting, and within next few trading there may be a major move.
Weekly:
- Ichimoku setup is bearish/neutral: Price is below Kumo and Kijun Sen, but Chikou Span hit past 26 weeks candles, and also very interesting to see Kijun Sen (26 weeks avg) to point up, while Tenkan Sen (9 weeks avg) being flat. Anyway this is still minor bearish bias, until Price stays below Kijun and major Trend line.
- Since mid November/2014 weekly price has been drifting lower in a possible flag formation. A break above 974 and later above 1006 is needed for a possible bullish extension to retest 100 WMA and Kumo.
- Heikin Ashi signal is bearish, but we have a few more days left from this week. haDelta/SMA3 is not really convincing, as it is still ard zero line and has some positive divergence.
Daily:
- Ichimoku setup is bearish biased, but can not be called strong bearish until Price can not make a lower low. All Ichimoku average lines are flat, and we have a very thin Kumo above Price.
- Price was pushed down to ultimate support zone 948-958 during last four days, but teh Heikin Ashi signal yesterday and today suggests a possible spike again.
- We also have a possible bullish wedge formation here. A break will occur within a few days. Given the Heikin Ashi signal it is not impossible that the break finally happens on the top side. That would also mean a Price/Kijun Sen weak bullish cross. So the upper level to watch closely is 972! Wether it will be able to break through the Kumo later, or only reaches range top, that remains a question.
I enterred 0,5 unit long position with stop below 942. WI would add 0,5-1 unit more above 972.
Soybeans - Still sideaway, probably more bullish action aheadWeekly:
- After 5 months (!) of range trading Chikou Span hits Price candles. Tenkan and Kijun stay close together, Price is just a bit below Kijun Sen. Ichimoku setup is turning to neutral/less bearish
- Weekly Heikin Ashi candle and haDelta/SMA3 signals a possible bullish move ahead in next weeks
- A Price/Kijun cross would allow gains up to 1060. Since Chikou would then cross past candles, a move to 1100-1150 is also possible.
Daily:
- Multi layered range, with middle equilibrium area at 997-1007
- Ichimoku setup is neutral as Tenkan, Kijun and Senkou lines stay all together and are flat line.
- Heikin Ashi setup is short term bullish again.
- Please note, that is Price breaks above 1007, that will cause longer term bearish trendline break and a Kumo breakout too. More bullish acceleration would come over 1060.
I started to accumulate some longs again.
Soybeans rangeSoybeans (ZSK15) BREAKING OUT to the downside from a 5 months triangle. First target 928.0
ZS Soybeans futures in continued declineIn the accompanying chart I show a high probability support zone for $ZS_F Soybeans at approx. $835 - 790 zone. If demand signals start flipping and firing, that may be a good place to go long. Meanwhile, in the absence of any real demand, I can't see a turn around. The recent lows look vulnerable.
Soybeans bear marketSoybeans monthly chart showing H&S. Targeting 780.0. Find opportunities to enter short. Weakness in the overall bean compelx and grains.
Soybean (ZS) Testing Downchannel/Descending Wedge ResistanceAfter a two week rally, soybean (ZS) is now bumping into downchannel/descending wedge resistance on the weekly chart, which coincides roughly with the 1000 psychologically key resistance level. Weekly RSI and Stochastics are in rally mode, while the MACD which a few weeks back appeared ready for a negative crossover has strengthened again and is sloping up now.
For my multiple timeframe analysis on ZS, feel free to visit: tradablepatterns.com
Website: tradablepatterns.com
FB: facebook.com
Stocktwits: stocktwits.com
Twitter: twitter.com
Linkedin: www.linkedin.com
YouTube: www.youtube.com
Google+: google.com
Email: info@tradablepatterns.com
Soybeans - Accumulate longs! Breakout is loomingWeekly:
- Heikin-Ashi weekly reversal pattern, with haDelta climbing back above zero line.
- Chikou Span got close to Price candles, we may see a weak bullish Chikou cross within next few weeks
- First resistance is Tenkan Sen at 1008, second is Kijun Sen at 1046
Daily:
- Major bearish trendine break?
- HA candle pattern is bullish, haDelta is further up
- Thin Kumo above Price, would be easy to break in case. Chikou Span gets close to Price candles and past Kumo, a cross would mean a medium strong bullish signa.
- First resistance is Kijun Sen at 1007. Above that space opens towards previous range top at 1060.
- A final break above 1060 would validate a bullish Kumo breakout to open route towards 1100.
Start to accumulate longs and add to position on breaks and on retest after relevant level breaks.
The squeeze is comingAbove 998 and the squeeze will have shorts scrambling. A close above this area and we will be looking for triggers long.
Soybeans - Seeking direction, volatility is extremely lowLast two weeks have been boring in Soybeans' market. Small spike up, then back, but in fact it has been trading in a very narrow range. There is total undecision, but the next break will end in a big move.
Weekly:
- Ichimoku setup is still rather bearish, but in fact since October/2014 the bearish bias softenned a lot. Chikou Span is getting close to Price of 26 weeks ago.
- previous HA candle already showed undecision, and this week's candle is something we very rarely see in commodities. It has smaller body than previous one, and its body and wicks are still within the previous candle's.
haDelta is difficult to read, as it is above its SMA3, but still both lines are below zero level
Daily:
- Last 6-7 days were total neutral with no clear HA candles. Price is stuck to Tenkan Sen. Will it change today with a bullish candle and with haDelta crossing up again above zero? We'll see
- Ichimoku picture is also neutral. All average lines are flat, and Chikou Span is neutral too.
- Price is equally close to the major downtrend line and to the shorter term minor uptrend line. Break through one of these lines will decide the next major move, which after such a low volatility period will be a sharp and decent one. Please note that the Kumo is very thin above. So in case Price manages to break the downtrend line it will not be very difficult to break the Kumo as well.
Obviously from the recent setup this model can not decide which direction will come next. but as the space is getting really tight, it worths to watch Soybeans price action in coming days.
For a bullish reversal the key level is ard 1000, bearish continuation requires a break below prev low at 952.
ZS upward "C" wave to come (???)Soybean has been a tough market for those traders seeking volatility as it has been on a “wait-and-see” mode for a couple of month now. I do not expect any major movement on the short/mid run; however, I do see a possibility to “widen” the current trading range.
The wave counting above suggests that a B wave would be completed (or nearly completed) and a possible upward C wave would be on the radar screen. For those (unlike me) seeking short-term opportunities it may be a good commodity to keep track on.
I am still holding my long position with stops on a range around 920, although I confess the weekly chart does not look that bullish. In fact, the MACD divergence is killing my sleep lately.
See my comments on ZC at:
Wheat,Corn,Soybeans - Trend breaks and bearish reversalsWheat: Has been changing direction as fast as it was going up. Price is in the Kumo still, but below Senkou B and Kijun Sen, DMI bearish too. Chikou Span made its bearish cross. Any correction back to 574 will likely be a good entry point to enter short.
Corn: Turning bearish as well, but still Corn is the one that has the "best" performance technically. Price broke bullish trendline and horizontal support, there is a weak Tenkan/Kijun sell signal and Chikou Span is about to make a bearish cross too. We will either see further drop in price or some consolidation into the cloud.
Soybeans: It could never make the bullish breakout, right now Price is back to Kumo and to the bottom of the range.
It should be still considered as neutral, but a break below the cloud with a Chikou Span sell signal would indicate a heavy selling.
One thing is sure, bullish bias is out of picture now. Which one, when and how to short is another question.
Wheat,Corn,Soybeans - The trend is your friendWheat: No comment. Exploded after few days flag consolidation. Trend is extremely bullish, primer support range is 600-612. May be bit overbought here, but any retracement is a buy in line with the trend.
Corn: Nice bullish trend, and it has more room to rally, especially if it would like to keep pace with Wheat.
Soybeans: The lagging one. Let's dig into the details, as this one could be the next positive surprise.
It has moved out of / above the Kumo with sideaway trading, and also broke the downtrend line, but it is still stuck in a range 1000 - 1058. Chikou Span is still at Price candles and in the Kumo. ADX is extremely low, which also tells us Soybean is not trending at moment. What do we have to pay attention for? Future Kumo points up, so the bias is more developing bullish. The key levels are 1036 (Kijun Sen) and more importantly 1058 (top of the range. Once these key resistances are cleared, it can very quickly catch up and extend a bullish move towards 1200.
If we see a spike with volume increase, then we'll hav emore confirmation signals following, like strong bullish Tenkan/Kijun cross, bullish DMI cross with increaing ADX and later a Chikou Span cross above the Kumo.
Either you participated or missed the bullish trend in Wheat and Corn, I think now it worths to pay attention for Soybeans. Sooner or later it can be the next sweet child for trend followers.
Soybeans breach neckline of Head and Shoulders top.Soybeans, technically, should be heading significantly lower in the short term. With the confirmation today of the head and shoulders top, the market should plummet by 8 - 9% by year end. This will put the soybeans smack down at year lows. The pattern took about a month to develop and should take about that long to fully unfold. However, this is a scared market right now and most of the damage should be done in the next few sessions. Everyone know the fundamental story with beans. Record harvest, perfect crop conditions, too many beans, yadda yadda yadda. The story has been out there and played itself to be true all year. It appeared as the market had finally found a bottom. Not so fast. Shorts have taken control of this market once again. All contracts are under attack as of this writing. The necklines have been breached and settled below in each of the expiring contracts out to Nov '15(that's as far dated as I checked). Here are the target prices for the next six expiring Soybean contracts.
SF15- 914 SH15 - 920 SK15- 930 SN15- 939 SQ15- 949 SU15- 931 SX15- 919
Soybeans (ZS) Bottoming on Weekly ChartZS has found major support at around the 900 level, as seen by the weekly RSI, Stochastics and MACD all turning up from oversold levels. The 900 round figure coincides with major bottoms in 2009 and 2010, along with near bottoming activity in late 2008. ZS appears to want to target roughly 1000 in the near-term where downchannel resistance can be expected to hold initially. Feel free to visit stks.co for today's technical analysis on $ZS_F, $ZW_F, $CT_F, $ZC_F, $NG_F, $SI_F, $EURUSD, $GBPUSD, $USDX, $BUXL, $KC_F, $NFLX.
Website: tradablepatterns.com
FB: facebook.com
Stocktwits: stocktwits.com
Twitter: twitter.com
Linkedin: www.linkedin.com
YouTube: www.youtube.com
Google+: google.com
Email: info@tradablepatterns.com
Favorite patternThis is one of our favorite patterns. It usually suckers people into believing we will see more downside. The larger players will usually dip below the wedge and get new shorts stuck and then squeeze them. (similar to Corn recently) If they break it to the upside we should see a quick move due to weak shorts being stopped. This is high on our watch list.
Soybeans moving lowerSee link to related idea for the overall view. This seems to be a continuation pattern. I'll short below the pivot low (1054.0). ZSX14 contract.
Soybeans counter trend trade (just in case)ZSU2014. I'm bearish here but if we trade above 1300.0 we could see a tunaround. Day trade.
Soybeans moving lowerMonthly chart of the Soybean showing a major trendline broken to the downside. Next support 907.0. Look for selling opportunities
The Soybeans (ZSU2014)The soybean tend to peak Mid-July
And baced on soybeans pattern
Short term longside looks possible
Or sit on the side line looks best.
Soybeans peaking (update)Soybeans ZSN are forming a top. Typical seasonal peak is in June/July but this might be earlier. Chart pattern (M top) and RSI divergences are supportive. Targeting 1394.0 in one week time.
Soybeans peakingSoybeans ZSN are forming a top. Typical season peak in in June/July but this might be earlier. Chart pattern and RSI divergences are supportive. Targeting 1429 in one week time.
Fundamentals can be found in the USDA (US department of agriculture) reports:
www.usda.gov
zs1!The beans are a bit long in the tooth. A topping pattern is playing out. We want to be short (small size) for a short term reversal.
