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Mini-Sized Soybean CME

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SJC1! trade ideas

Soybean Futures (ZS1!), H4 Potential for Bullish RiseType : Bullish rise Resistance : 1581'4 Pivot: 1483'4 Support : 1377'2 Preferred Case: On the H4, with price moving along the ascending channel, we have a bullish bias that price will rise from the pivot at 1483'4, which is in line with the 38.2% fibonacci retracement to the 1st resistance at 1581'4 where the 61.8% fibonacci retracement is. Alternative scenario: Alternatively, price could break pivot structure and drop to the 1st support at 1377'2 where the overlap support and 61.8% fibonacci retracement are. Fundamentals: No Major News
CBOT:ZS1!Long
by Genesiv
Soybeans ZS - Lagging the Pack, but Ready to GoThis is a call I wanted to make yesterday, but didn't have time. With the time I had, there was a choice between this and a Nasdaq NS call and made the Nasdaq call: Nasdaq NQ - 8 Days & 1,700 Points But in fairness, I did pick up November options during yesterday's session, so at least I can say that much for myself, since this has some vibes of hindsight based on today's action. Regardless, Soybeans gives strong cause to believe bullish action is imminent, based on the monthly candles: What this tells us that our June high formed a double top with the '12 all-time high. But most critically, it formed a lower high double top, which means that MMs are likely to seek this level to crush bear skulls, and it's just a question of when. The post-resistance top was really a long gap fill and we've also had three months of consolidation. As everyone who's traded with real money knows, picking the direction and the price is not the hardest, but instead, the timing is the very hardest, and most critical, thing. And in terms of timing, the weekly gives us good cause to believe we're ready to go. We see that late July featured a gap up, which has been filled in and heavily consolidated over the course of five weeks: And thusly, there is significantly reduced reason to believe that Soybeans are set to seek new lows instead of new highs. And indeed, on the daily, what has manifested is a string of higher lows, culminating in this morning's gundown of the 1,400 level A gundown that looks exceptionally turtle soup on the 1H, albeit retrospectively since it already ripped. But note that the rip occurred at 9:00 just before NYSE opens, significant because there are ETFs like SOYB that get caught gap up. More importantly, maybe consider not trying to short the pop. Instead, going long on a pullback could be quite good. And so, in magnifying the timeframe down to the 4H, I discovered that targeting boxes that appeared correct on the wider time frame were a little too shallow on the lower time frames. Thusly, I have generated a "revised" targeting box. However, like I said, time is the harder consideration. I feel ZS will get there, but who knows when? In the meantime, a rundown of the 1,500 level, which corresponds with those August-July relative equal highs around ~1,485 is very realistic. Everyone knows the global food supply is in trouble because of all the drought . Whether it's corn, wheat, soy, or whatever. And while you can certainly expect a new all time high to be made, it's really a question of when. Months like December, January, and February when everything is both trapped in winter, a new calendar year, and people are struggling to pay incredibly high natural gas/electricity bills across the world resulting from problems governments have created since the Russian Federation's invasion of Ukraine this year, may be the more likely time target for 2,000 point Soybeans.
CBOT:ZS1!
by LordWrymouth
3
Soybeans Retreat Fundamental Spotlight Flash Sale Alert Private exporters reported sales of 167,000 metric tons of soybeans for delivery to China during the 2022/2023 marketing year. (More) Lower Yield Estimates Commodity Consultant, Dr. Michael Cordonnier released his yield estimate for the U.S. corn crop. He dropped his estimate 3 bushels per acre, to 170 bpa. As mentioned, several times over the last week+, we feel the market has digested the lower yields and believe the market is likely trading closer to a 170-172 yield, below the most recent USDA estimate of 175.4. Taiwan Strait U.S. military vessels and aircraft have returned to the Taiwan Strait as tensions escalate. It's being reported that Taiwan fired shots at a done belonging to mainland China. We don't believe that this conflict will go away anytime soon. If the tensions rise to the point of U.S. intervention, it would likely be extremely bearish for grain futures. Outside Markets Outside markets were sharply lower yesterday with indices down to their lowest level since the end of July. Crude oil futures were sharply lower yesterday, erasing all the gains and then some from the previous session. That weakness has spilled into today's session, with October futures currently trading down another 3% and below the psychologically significant $90 handle. Soybeans November soybean futures closed off the lows yesterday which would be constructive under most circumstances, however, it was not enough of a rally to get the market out above our pivot pocket, 1430-1440. Markets are back on the lower side this morning and are approaching the 50 and 200 day moving average again. A break and close below those could open the door for a drop into the mid 1370's. Bias: Bearish/Neutral Previous Session Bias: Bearish Neutral Resistance: 1459 1/4-1467***, 1481-1489***, 1500-1507 ¾**** Pivot: 1430-1440 Support: 1400-1407****, 1376-1379** Futures trading involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. Trading advice is based on information taken from trade and statistical services and other sources Blue Line Futures, LLC believes are reliable. We do not guarantee that such information is accurate or complete and it should not be relied upon as such. Trading advice reflects our good faith judgment at a specific time and is subject to change without notice. There is no guarantee that the advice we give will result in profitable trades. All trading decisions will be made by the account holder. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.
CBOT:ZS1!
by OliverSloup_BlueLine
Lower than expected Chinese data is pressuring soybeansFundamental Snapshot China Weaker than expected growth in China was reported overnight, with real estate leading the way to the downside. The weaker than expected data prompted their Central Bank to announce a surprise interest rate cut. We are seeing the slower growth data have ripple effects in commodities this morning with oil down over 5% and soybeans down over 3%, just to name a few. U.S. Dollar The US Dollar is firming on the back of poor Chinese data, continuing the relief rally from Friday. The U.S. dollar was able to defend 105, which was previous resistance in May and June and the eventual breakout point in July. If the dollar continues to rally, it could be a headwind to some commodities. Weather Weather throughout the Midwest looks cooler and wetter for the next 1-2 weeks. For some problem areas, it may be too little too late. The conversation around weather will be shifting to South America in the coming weeks as they begin planting. Soybeans November soybean futures had a big reversal on Friday, taking prices into positive territory following a bearish USDA report. The news out of China over the weekend has offset Friday's bullish reversal and has taken prices back near first support, 1394-1400. A failure to defend this pocket could lead to another leg lower. There is still a gap on the chart from July 26th, that comes in from 1349 1/4-1356. Bias: Neutral Previous Session Bias: Neutral Resistance: 1463 ¼**, 1481-1489***, 1500-1507 ¾****, 1529 ¾-1536 ½**** Pivot: 1440-1450 Support: 1394-1400***, 1349-1356****, 1300** Futures trading involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. Trading advice is based on information taken from trade and statistical services and other sources Blue Line Futures, LLC believes are reliable. We do not guarantee that such information is accurate or complete and it should not be relied upon as such. Trading advice reflects our good faith judgment at a specific time and is subject to change without notice. There is no guarantee that the advice we give will result in profitable trades. All trading decisions will be made by the account holder. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.
CBOT:ZS1!
by OliverSloup_BlueLine
Soybean Wave Count Has Options, Seasonality is BearishSoybeans currently have two equally likely wave counts. The preferred count above, the blue line, implies that soybeans are currently in primary wave C of a zigzag correction. All subwaves support this count, and it also agrees with soybeans seasonality, which is bearish until late September. The alternate count above, the yellow line, implies that soybeans have already completed a WXY double zigzag correction and are currently in intermediate wave 3 up. All subwaves also support this count (I know this seems unlikely, but it is possible to count intermediate wave B above as both an impulse and a zigzag. It looks like a zigzag, but if you count it as an impulse, wave 4 doesn't overlap with wave 1) but this count contradicts soybeans seasonality. I place more weight on the Elliott wave model than on seasonality. However, when two wave counts seem equally likely, we need a tie-breaker, and seasonality can be remarkably reliable in agricultural commodities.
CBOT:ZSX2022
by epistemophiliac
Soybeans Retest the Recent HighsFundamental Snapshot Crop Progress Yesterday’s weekly crop progress report showed further declining crop conditions. Good/Excellent conditions for soybeans were down 1%, to 59%, which was in line with expectations. However, corn G/E ratings fell 3%, to 58%, 2% lower than expectations. Private Estimates DTN released their yield estimates for corn and soybeans yesterday afternoon, and boy were they bullish. They have the national average corn yield at 167.2 bushels per acre, well below the USADA’s July estimate of 177. We have been assuming the market has been trading 174-175. DTN’s estimate for soybean yield comes in at 48.9, well below the USDA’s 51.5. As with corn, we’ve been assuming the market is trading closer to 50bpa. WASDE Estimates Reuters has complied estimates for Friday’s WASDE report. The average analyst estimate for corn yield is 175.9, with production at 14.392. The average estimate for soybean yield is 51.1, with production at 4.481. Soybeans (September): As with corn futures, soybean futures got some friendly news yesterday afternoon which has helped move prices out above first resistance, taking prices to our next pocket, 1498-1503. This pocket represents previously important price points and the 100-day moving average. Above this pocket, resistance comes in in the low to mid 1520's. If the market gets out above that area, there's not a lot of resistance until closer to $16.00. Bias: Neutral Previous Session Bias: Neutral Resistance: 1498-1503***, 1521 ¼*** Pivot: 1475-1480 Support: 1444 ½-1455***, 1400-1411 ¾***, 1360-1366 ½**** Futures trading involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. Trading advice is based on information taken from trade and statistical services and other sources Blue Line Futures, LLC believes are reliable. We do not guarantee that such information is accurate or complete and it should not be relied upon as such. Trading advice reflects our good faith judgment at a specific time and is subject to change without notice. There is no guarantee that the advice we give will result in profitable trades. All trading decisions will be made by the account holder. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.
CBOT:ZSU2022
by OliverSloup_BlueLine
Soybean Futures (ZS1!), H4 Potential for Bullish RiseType : Bullish Rise Resistance : 1508'4 Pivot: 1438'6 Support : 1400'4 Preferred Case: On the H4, with prices moving above the ichimoku indicator and broken out of the descending trendline , we have a bullish bias that price will rise from the pivot at 1438'6 where the pullback support and 23.6% fibonacci retracement are to the 1st resistance at 1508'4 where the swing high resistance is. Alternative scenario: Alternatively, price could break pivot structure and drop to the 1st support at 1400'4 where the pullback support, 38.2% fibonacci retracement and 78.6% fibonacci projection are. Fundamentals: Since Russia and Ukraine are major exporter of agriculture goods, their persistent war will lead to a shortage of agricultural goods and give us a bullish bias for soybean .
CBOT:ZS1!Long
by Genesiv
Soybeans Rally Over $1.00 Off Friday's LowSoybeans Technicals (September): September wheat futures are officially over a dollar off Friday’s low, testing the 200-day moving average and the upper end of our first resistance pocket, 1411 ¾. If the Bulls can keep the momentum going above here, we could see a retest of the congestion pocket from 1444 ½-1455. Our bias has been at Neutral/Bullish aka cautiously optimistic, but a retest of the congestion pocket may have us looking back to neutral and possibly bearish. Bias: Neutral/Bullish Previous Session Bias: Neutral/Bullish Resistance: 1444 ½-1455**** Pivot: 1400-1411 ¾ Support: 1360-1366 ½****, 1321 ½-1324 ¾***, 1300-1304 ½** Futures trading involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. Trading advice is based on information taken from trade and statistical services and other sources Blue Line Futures, LLC believes are reliable. We do not guarantee that such information is accurate or complete and it should not be relied upon as such. Trading advice reflects our good faith judgment at a specific time and is subject to change without notice. There is no guarantee that the advice we give will result in profitable trades. All trading decisions will be made by the account holder. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.
CBOT:ZS1!
by OliverSloup_BlueLine
Soybeans Threatening the Recent Lows Soybeans Fundamentals: This morning’s weekly export sales report showed Net sales of 203,500 MT for 2021/2022 and 254,700 MT for 2022/2023. Yesterday morning, private exporters reported sales of 136,000 metric tons of soybeans for delivery to China during the 2022/2023 marketing year. Technicals: The 200-day moving average has held as support over the last few weeks, but it's looking as though that may be coming to an end with prices threatening the low end of the range from July 5th and 6th. A break and close below this pocket could take us closer to the psychologically significant $14.00 handle. Bias: Neutral Previous Session Bias: Neutral Resistance: 1495-1505****, 1513 ¼-1516 ½***, 1530-1538***, 1552 ¾-1560*** Pivot: 1452-1461 ¼ Support: 1413 3/4-1424 1/4***, 1400-1403**** Futures trading involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. Trading advice is based on information taken from trade and statistical services and other sources Blue Line Futures, LLC believes are reliable. We do not guarantee that such information is accurate or complete and it should not be relied upon as such. Trading advice reflects our good faith judgment at a specific time and is subject to change without notice. There is no guarantee that the advice we give will result in profitable trades. All trading decisions will be made by the account holder. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.
CBOT:ZS1!
by OliverSloup_BlueLine
Soybeans Finishing Intermediate Wave 4 with Bearish Seasonality Soybeans are currently in minor wave D of an intermediate wave 4 triangle. Once soybeans break out of the triangle, they will begin intermediate wave 5 down to at least the 1212'4 (0.5 Fibonacci level) area for November soybeans, possibly lower. This is also happening during the summer months when soybean prices typically decrease. If you bought soybeans on July 20 and sold soybeans on September 28 every year for the past 8 years, you would have lost money for 6 of those years (75%).
CBOT:ZSX2022Short
by epistemophiliac
Crop Conditions DeclineSoybeans Fundamentals: Yesterday’s weekly export inspections came in at 362,622 metric tons, roughly 4,000 more than last week. The weekly Crop Progress report showed good/excellent conditions at 61%, 1% lower than last week. 48% of the crop is blooming. Technicals: August soybean futures ran up into our congestion pocket yesterday, which we had listed as 1513 ¼-1516 ½. The market was unable to get out above this pocket which led to some profit taking into the close. That profit taking has continued into the overnight and early morning trade, as prices retreat to give back all of yesterday’s gains. The 200-day moving average has acted as good support over the last two-weeks, we will see if it holds again. That comes in at 1466 ¼. As with corn, our bias remains Neutral as we see short term opportunities for participants on both sides of the market. Bias: Neutral Previous Session Bias: Neutral Resistance: 1513 ¼-1516 ½***, 1530-1538***, 1552 ¾-1560*** Pivot: 1495-1505 Support: 1466 ¼**, 1444-1452**, 1413 3/4-1424 1/4***, 1400-1403**** Futures trading involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. Trading advice is based on information taken from trade and statistical services and other sources Blue Line Futures, LLC believes are reliable. We do not guarantee that such information is accurate or complete and it should not be relied upon as such. Trading advice reflects our good faith judgment at a specific time and is subject to change without notice. There is no guarantee that the advice we give will result in profitable trades. All trading decisions will be made by the account holder. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.
CBOT:ZS1!
by OliverSloup_BlueLine