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FOB Santos (Platts) Soybean FuturesFF

FOB Santos (Platts) Soybean Futures

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SOY1! trade ideas

Using Micro Soybean Futures to Finetune Trading StrategiesCBOT: Micro Soybean Futures ( CBOT_MINI:MZS1! ) Shipping industry news recently reported that 30 U.S. soybean ships (about 2 million tons) are currently heading to China, nearly half of which will arrive after April 12th, when China's 10% retaliatory tariffs on U.S. soybeans will take effect. How big are the tariffs? Let’s say a cargo of soybeans, or 65,000 tons, is sent to China. Assuming the trade is $10 per bushel, given 36.74 bushels per ton, total cargo value is $23.88 million. Upon arriving in China, you owe a new tax bill for $2.39 million! According to people familiar with the matter, many cargoes are for China Grain Reserves, which may be exempted from tariffs. Soybean cargoes loaded before March 12th are eligible for a one-month grace period. Data from the U.S. Department of Agriculture on March 20th showed that the stock of unsold agricultural products in China was 1.22 million tons. Any sign of order cancellation will help us assess the real impact of tariffs. In anticipation of the tariffs, China rushes to buy U.S. soybeans in the past two months. In January and February, China bought 9.13 million metric tons of soybeans from the U.S., up 84% year-over-year. I expect the buying will vanish by the second quarter, given new crop arriving from Brazil at much lower prices without the tariffs imposed by China. China relies heavily on imported soybeans to crush into soybean oil for cooking use and soybean meal, a key ingredient in animal feed. The oversupply of soybeans pushes the downstream soybean meal market to crash. According to the statistics of China Feed Industry Information, soybean meals spot market prices tumbled more than 600 yuan per ton to 3,180 since February, nearly a 20% drop. Top feed processing companies, including New Hope, Haida, and Dabeinong, have each announced price cuts ranging from 50 to 300 yuan per ton for their chicken feed and hog feed products. With lower overall demand, and tariffs making South American soybeans more competitive, U.S. soybeans face a shrinking export market. On my March 17th commentary “Soybeans: Déjà vu all over again”, I expressed a bearish view on CBOT Soybean Futures and discussed the possibility of $8 beans. Trading with Micro Soybean Futures On February 24th, CME Group launched a suite of micro-size agricultural futures contracts, including Micro Corn (MZC) futures, Micro Wheat (MZW) futures, Micro Soybean (MZS) futures, Micro Soybean Meal (MZM) futures and Micro Soybean Oil (MZL) futures. The contract size of the micro soybean futures (MZS) is 500 bushels, or just 1/10 of the benchmark standard soybean futures (ZS). The minimum margin is $200 for the front futures month, and it gets smaller further out. For instance, the margins for May, July, August, September and November are $200, $190, $180, $170, and $165, respectively. The smaller capital requirement makes it easier for traders to express an opinion ahead of the release of a USDA report or anticipate the impact of tariffs and retaliation. The latest CFTC Commitments of Traders report shows that, as of March 25th, CBOT soybean futures have total open interest of 853,368 contracts, up 5% in two weeks. • Managed Money has 89,649 in long, 123,470 in short, and 139,427 in spreading • Compared to two weeks ago, long positions were down by 12% while shorts were increased by 12%. This shows that the “Small Money” has turned bearish on soybeans In my opinion, micro soybean futures would be a great instrument to trade market-moving events, particularly the USDA reports. I list the big reports here for your information: • World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE), monthly, April 10th • Prospective Plantings, annually, March 31st • Grain Stocks, quarterly, March 31st, June 30th, September 30th • Export Sales, weekly, every Thursday • Crop Progress, weekly during growing season, April 7th, April 14th, April 21st • Acreage, annually, June 30th Hypothetically, a trader expects more soybean planting in this crop year and wants to express a bearish opinion ahead of April 7th Crop Progress. He could enter a short order for May contract MZSK5 at the current market price of 1,023. If he is correct in his view and the contract price drops to 900, the short position would gain $1.23 per bushel (= 1023-900) and the total gain is $615 given the contract size at 500 bushels. The risk of short futures is the continuous rise in soybean prices. The trader would be wise to set a stoploss at his sell order. For example, a stop loss at $11.00 would set the maximum loss to $385 (= (11.00-10.23) x 500). To learn more about all Micro Ag futures contracts traded on CME Group platform, you can check out the following site: www.cmegroup.com Happy Trading. Disclaimers *Trade ideas cited above are for illustration only, as an integral part of a case study to demonstrate the fundamental concepts in risk management under the market scenarios being discussed. They shall not be construed as investment recommendations or advice. Nor are they used to promote any specific products, or services. CME Real-time Market Data help identify trading set-ups and express my market views. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs www.tradingview.com
CBOT_MINI:MZS1!Short
by JimHuangChicago
6
Impact of Tariffs on Agricultural MarketsTemporary Tariff Suspension and Its Implications The U.S. has temporarily suspended tariffs on agricultural imports from Canada and Mexico until April 2, providing short-term relief to cross-border trade. However, Canada's retaliatory tariffs remain in place, adding complexity to trade flows. These dynamics could influence market stability and pricing, particularly for key commodities such as wheat, corn, and soybeans. Effects on Agricultural Exports and Imports The uncertainty surrounding the tariff policies has already begun to impact trade volumes. U.S. agricultural exports are projected to face headwinds, particularly in markets affected by retaliatory measures. While U.S. tariffs on China remain in effect, China has maintained its own countermeasures, limiting U.S. soybean exports, which have been revised downward to 47.5 million metric tons (MMT). At the same time, Canada and Mexico are key buyers of U.S. agricultural products, and the current suspension of tariffs has allowed trade flows to continue without immediate disruption. However, if tariffs are reinstated, the U.S. could see a decline in exports to these partners, potentially leading to increased domestic stockpiles and price fluctuations. Market Reactions and Price Volatility Commodity prices have reacted to the uncertainty surrounding tariff policies. For example, soybean futures are trading around $10 per bushel amid concerns that reinstated tariffs could further reduce demand for U.S. grains ECONOMICS:USGSW and oilseeds. Meanwhile, the global soybean market is already experiencing record-high stock levels, which adds further downward pressure on prices. Corn markets CBOT:ZC1! are also adjusting to shifting trade dynamics. While global corn production is expected to rise by 3.2 MMT due to increased output in India, Russia, and Ukraine, export reductions from Brazil and South Africa may offset some of these gains. If tariffs disrupt North American trade, U.S. corn exports could be affected, altering the balance of supply and demand. Long-Term Outlook Looking ahead, the final decision on U.S. tariffs will play a significant role in shaping agricultural trade flows. If the U.S. extends the suspension or removes tariffs permanently, markets could stabilize, supporting steady export volumes. However, if tariffs are reintroduced, the agricultural sector may face increased price volatility and supply chain disruptions. Investors and traders should closely monitor developments as the April 2 deadline approaches, as policy changes could have significant implications for commodity markets.
C
by juliakhandoshko
Soybeans: Deja Vu all over againCBOT: Micro Soybean Futures ( CBOT_MINI:MZS1! ) Let’s rewire the clock back for seven years. In 2018, trade tensions escalated between the US and China, resulting in a series of tariffs and retaliations. On July 6, 2018, US imposed a 25% tariff on $34 billion of Chinese imports. On the same day, China immediately hit back with 25% tariff on equal value of US goods. American soybeans were among the hardest hit by tariffs. The United States has been the largest soybean producer in the world. According to USDA data, American farmers produced 120 million metric tons of soybeans in 2017, contributing to 35.6% of the world production. About 48.2%, or 57.9 metric tons, were exported to the global market, making US the second largest soybean exporter after Brazil. China is the largest soybean consumer and importer. In 2017, it imported 94 million metric tons of soybeans, accounting for 61.7% of the global imports. Brazil and the US were the largest sources of China’s imports, with 53% and 34% shares, respectively. Tariffs on US soybeans punished American farmers. Total tariff level was raised from 5% to 30%. As a result, the FOB cost to Shenzhen harbor in southern China hiked up 700 yuan (=$110) per ton. This made US soybeans 300 yuan more expensive than imports from Brazil. Tariffs priced American farmers out of the Chinese market. According to USDA Foreign Agricultural Service, China imported 1,164 million bushels of US soybeans in 2017. By 2018, China import dropped 74% to 303. While US exports recovered to 831 in 2019, it did not resume to the pre-tariff level until the signing of US-China trade agreement. CBOT soybean futures plummeted 15-20% in the months after the tariffs were imposed. US farmers incurred huge losses from both reduced sales and lower prices. The following illustration is an exercise of our mind, not from actual export data. • Without trade tensions, we assume exports of 1,164 million bushels each in 2018 and 2019, at an average price of $105 per bushel. This comes to a baseline export revenue of $244.4 billion for both years combined. • Tariffs lowered export sales to 1,134 million bushels for the two-year total, at an average price of $87. Thus, the tariff-impacted revenue data comes to $98.6 billion. • The total impact on soybean sales volume would be -51%, from 2,328 down to 1,134. • The total impact on export revenue would be -60%, from $244.4 to $98.6 billion. It is déjà vu all over again. In February 2025, the Trump administration announced 10% additional tariffs on Chinese goods. This was raised by another 10% in March, setting the total to 20%. To retaliate against US tariffs, China imposed import levies covering $21 billion worth of U.S. agricultural and food products, effective March 10th. These comprised a 15% tariff on U.S. chicken, wheat, corn and cotton and an extra levy of 10% on U.S. soybeans, sorghum, pork, beef, aquatic products, fruits and vegetables and dairy imports. This is just the beginning. In the last trade conflict, average US tariff on Chinese imports was raised from 4% to 19%. Now we set the starting point at 39%. How high could it go? From history, we learnt that this could go for several rounds before it settles. Trading with Micro Soybean Futures On March 11th, USDA published its World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report. Both the U.S. and global 2024/25 soybean supply and use projections are basically unchanged this month, meeting market expectations. In the last week, soybean futures bounced back by about 2%, recovered most the lost ground since China first announced the retaliative measures. The latest CFTC Commitments of Traders report shows that, as of March 11th, CBOT soybean futures have total open interest of 810,374 contracts. • Managed Money has 101,927 in long, 109,849 in short, and 108,993 in spreading positions. • It appears that the “Small Money” spreads their money evenly, not knowing which direction the soybean market would go. In my opinion, the futures market so far has completely ignored the possibility of a pro-long trade conflict with China. • Seriously, ten percent is just the start. What if the tariff goes to 30% like in 2018? • How would soybean prices react to a 50% drop in US soybean exports? Anyone with a bearish view on soybeans could express it by shorting the CBOT micro soybean futures (MZS). These are smaller-sized contracts at 1/10 of the benchmark CBOT soybean futures. At 500 bushels per contract, market opportunities are more accessible than ever with lower capital requirements, an initial margin of only $200. Coincidently, Friday settlement price of $10.17 for May contract (MZSK5) is identical to the soybean futures price of $10.40 immediately prior to the 2018 tariff. History may not repeat, but it echoes . At the last time, the tariff on soybeans saw futures prices plummeting 20% within a month. If we were to experience the same, soybeans could drop to $8.00. This is a likely scenario if tariffs were to rise higher. Hypothetically, a decline of $2 per bushel would cause a short futures position to gain $1,000, given each micro contract has a notional of 500 bushels. The risk of short futures is the continuous rise in soybean prices. The trader would be wise to set a stoploss at his sell order. For example, a stop loss at $10.50 would set the maximum loss to $165 (= (10.50-10.17) x 500), which is less than the $200 initial margin. To learn more about all Micro Ag futures contracts traded on CME Group platform, you can check out the following site: www.cmegroup.com Happy Trading. Disclaimers *Trade ideas cited above are for illustration only, as an integral part of a case study to demonstrate the fundamental concepts in risk management under the market scenarios being discussed. They shall not be construed as investment recommendations or advice. Nor are they used to promote any specific products, or services. CME Real-time Market Data help identify trading set-ups and express my market views. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs www.tradingview.com
CShort
by JimHuangChicago
What Hidden Forces Are Reshaping the Soybean Market’s Future?The soybean market stands at a crossroads, where familiar patterns of supply and demand are being challenged by a web of global forces. U.S. crops, though abundant, face domestic difficulties as adverse weather threatens yield projections. South America, poised to increase production, is battling its climate concerns, leaving traders and analysts questioning what the true state of global supply will be. Despite the current pessimistic outlook, is there more to this story than meets the eye? On the demand side, the rising global appetite for vegetable oils, fueled by population growth and the biofuel industry, adds another layer of complexity. Yet, regulatory changes like the EU’s deforestation rules and China’s ongoing economic struggles continue to shape the trade landscape. How will these evolving dynamics impact global soybean trade flows, and what are the risks and opportunities hidden within? As technological advancements in biotechnology and precision agriculture push the boundaries of efficiency and productivity, the soybean market finds itself on the cusp of transformation. Investors and traders must decipher this intricate puzzle, where geopolitical shifts, weather risks, and innovation collide. Will those who grasp the nuances of these forces be the ones to seize the emerging opportunities?
CLong
by signalmastermind
Soybeans: Running Out Of SteamSoybeans seem to be a laggard in the aggriculture space recently and it appears as though now could be an ideal short. This sequence may send bonds higher on inflation easing as well. Equities are the real question and whether or not they accept the inflation easing as a bullish catalyst or if this part of a broader deflationary wave. In either scenario, it would seem as though agriculture products face the brunt of it. Good luck traders.
CShort
by Fox_Technicals
Can Soybeans Survive the Global Trade Chessboard?In the intricate game of international trade politics, soybeans have emerged as pivotal pieces on the global economic chessboard. The soybean industry faces a critical juncture as nations like the European Union and China implement protectionist strategies in response to US policies. This article delves into how these geopolitical moves are reshaping the future of one of America's most significant agricultural exports, challenging readers to consider the resilience and adaptability required in today's volatile trade environment. The European Union's decision to restrict US soybean imports due to the use of banned pesticides highlights a growing trend towards sustainability and consumer health in global trade. This move impacts American farmers and invites us to ponder the broader implications of agricultural practices on international commerce. As we witness these shifts, the question arises: How can the soybean industry innovate to meet global standards while maintaining its economic stronghold? China's strategic response, which targets influential American companies like PVH Corp., adds complexity to the global trade narrative. The placement of a major U.S. brand on China's 'unreliable entity' list highlights the power dynamics involved in international commerce. This situation prompts us to consider the interconnectedness of economies and the potential for unforeseen alliances or conflicts. What strategies can businesses implement to navigate these challenging circumstances? Ultimately, the soybean saga is more than a tale of trade disputes; it's a call to action for innovation, sustainability, and strategic foresight in the agricultural sector. As we watch this unfold, we are inspired to question not just the survival of soybeans but the very nature of global economic relationships in an era where every move on the trade chessboard can alter the game. How will the soybean industry, and indeed, international trade, evolve in response to these challenges?
CLong
by UDIS_View
Obvious Long on Soybeans Soybeans have been consolidating for some time between the yellow and red trend lines after finding support just above the 1500 week ma. Corn has led the market with downward action and now leads it with upward trajectory. Soy's have finally broken out of the RSI downtrend they've been in for almost 4 years. It seems obvious that Soybeans will follow corn and move to the green line at the very least. The stochastic RSI on the monthly has had a confirmed cross up signaling bu8llish momentum in the next several months. For reference corn had a confirmed cross up last fall. The price I'm expecting is 12.5 a 15-17% gain from todays prices. If corn can keep moving higher the next target for soybeans is 14ish. I will start booking my soybeans for the 2025 season if we can get a 10-15% gain from here. I'm a farmer from Canada and have been studying charts for about 8 years now. i started implementing my TA into commodity futures a few years ago. Thanks for reading
CLong
by andrewcation1979
2
Beans looking to drop hard, after all... Beans have been looking weak lately, and all this current and near future trade war fundamentals and uncertainty aren't going to help at all. Volatility is likely to go up this week across a lot of markets, and the ag commodities will certainly be part of that, with emotional fears from the last market crashing during the last Trump term. Beans especially didn't fair well during that time, and the corn-to-bean ratio was out of wack to where us farmers didn't want to plant beans period. We all thought (and were told) they might go to $7 or less! All while corn was poor, but much more palatable with the breakevens. Farmers, as a rule, certainly prefer to plant corn over beans anyway, if they live where they can choose as such. But back to the bean chart, I've been thinking there was a decent enough chance we could chop around in here and bounce off of any short term weakness and key support, to make new highs for the move. A lot of guys were looking to target the high 10s and even around $11, before expecting a notable correction. Well, unfortunately, I think we've already recently peaked and are more likely to now keep correcting down, potentially quite violently. On Friday, the 20 day EMA gave us bounce off support, but if we get a confirmation close Monday below that (likely), my opinion is we confirm we're in a larger scale wave 3 down already, and should eventually target the 9.47 and likely even lower ultimately, before we bottom in February or March, before spring seasonality and US planting weather premium allows for us to rise again. Longterm, for this summer and beyond into 2026, I am quite bullish grains and ultimately, expect to see new all time highs, but it's not gonna be this year. Mostly due to the likelihood of a major cycle drought of our lifetime, which could happen this year but not truly affect the supply issue drastically until new crop turns into "old crop".
CShort
by farmerisland
1
Decision time for beansGuess I will try my hand at this. Bear with me as I'm still learning. March Beans had a beautiful run up completing all five waves of an elliot pattern. Now it seems we are in the corrective C pattern. Question is does it go farther down continuing wave C or do we reverse here. There appears to be a potential bull flag on the 4hr. If we continue to hold the bottom trendline I'd expect a breakout and a continuation upwards. A break and close above the upper downward trendline I will enter long and target a zone between 10.70 and 10.80 A break and close below the bottom downward trendline I will go short and target a zone between 10.25 and 10.18
C
by Br-549
2
Grain Markets Showing StrengthMarch Soybeans have had a great start to the year after seeing a bottom after basically a whole year of falling prices in 2024. In January of 2024 just starting out the new year, prices fell below the 200-day moving average and have not been able to trade above that mark with conviction since. Since the bottom in mid December, prices have climbed back up toward this 200-day moving average and are now re-testing those levels. Significant market drivers could be potential tariffs, volatile climate in South America, and from the prospective planting report that is released in March. Looking historically at grain reports shows traders that March offers great volatility as there is both the Prospective Planting report and a WASDE report that can drive the price one way or another. With January offering great volatility historically offering 3 different reports regarding the grains, March gives traders the next highest range driving interest in the grain products, and with Micro grain contracts being released, traders have their choice of size. With the standard Corn, Soybean and Wheat contracts being sized at 5,000 bushels per contract, the micro contracts come in at 1/10th the size at 500 bushels per contract, which would have a lower barrier to entry and give a different level of scalability to traders. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs tradingview.com/cme/ *CME Group futures are not suitable for all investors and involve the risk of loss. Copyright © 2023 CME Group Inc. **All examples in this report are hypothetical interpretations of situations and are used for explanation purposes only. The views in this report reflect solely those of the author and not necessarily those of CME Group or its affiliated institutions. This report and the information herein should not be considered investment advice or the results of actual market experience.
C
by CME_Group
What If I Told You... Soybeans Are Ripe for a Short? | COT StratFollow Me Down the Rabbit Hole: The Soybeans Market Setup for Shorts What if I told you... the soybean market is on the verge of a paradigm shift? That the signals are all around you, hidden in plain sight, waiting for those who can read the code. The Commitment of Traders (COT) data is flashing red, and the truth is undeniable: the smart money is preparing for a downturn. Take the red pill, and let’s decode why the path of least resistance points down. The COT Index: A Matrix of Sell Signals The COT Index is the Oracle, revealing the intentions of the market’s architects. Commercial traders – the ones who truly understand the construct – have loaded up on shorts at levels even more bearish than May. And they’re doing it at lower prices. This isn’t just resistance to the rally. It’s a calculated move. A whisper in the system that the rally is but an illusion, built on a fragile code. Overvalued in the Grand Simulation When you step back and compare soybeans to the benchmarks of reality – gold, Treasuries, and the almighty DXY – their overvaluation becomes clear. The system’s balance demands equilibrium, and soybeans are poised to correct. Sentiment: The False Prophet The Advisor Sentiment Index reveals an uncomfortable truth: the herd is ecstatic. But as you’ve learned, the crowd rarely escapes the Matrix unscathed. Bullish sentiment at these extremes is a trap, and the smart money is already fading this illusion of strength. Spread Divergence: Cracks in the Code The spread divergence between the front-month and the next-month contracts is a glitch in the system. Short-term excitement isn’t aligning with the longer-term structure. When spreads diverge like this, it’s a signal: the construct is destabilizing. Distribution: The Hidden Hand The POIV (Price-Open Interest Volume) divergence reveals a pattern of distribution. The architects of the market are selling into the rally, while the unwitting masses continue to buy. The code doesn’t lie. This is the calm before the storm. The Technical Trinity: %R, Stochastic, and Oscillator Three powerful indicators align, pointing to an impending shift: %R Indicator: Overbought and ready to turn. Stochastic Oscillator: Rolling over, signaling exhaustion. Ultimate Oscillator: Confirming the downward momentum. Combine this with the down-sloping 52-day SMA, and the dominant trend reveals itself: the Matrix is designed to move lower. Patience: The Key to the System This isn’t a call to blindly short. No one escapes the system without discipline. Wait for the daily chart to confirm the trend change. Only then can you move with precision, ensuring that every move aligns with the code. The Choice Is Yours The soybean market is more than what it seems. The smart money, the sentiment extremes, the divergences – they all point to a single truth: this rally is an illusion. But as always, the choice is yours. Will you take the blue pill and believe what you want to believe? Or take the red pill, follow me, and see how deep the COT hole really goes? The trend is your ally – until it isn’t. And this one is collapsing before your eyes. Stay tuned, stay sharp, and remember: the Matrix rewards those who see beyond the veil. Acknowledgment The strategies and concepts taught in this class draw significant inspiration from the works and teachings of Larry Williams, a pioneer in trading and market analysis. His groundbreaking research and methodologies have shaped the foundation of modern trading education. While this class incorporates Larry Williams’ principles, the content has been adapted and presented to reflect my own understanding and application of these ideas. Full credit is given to Larry Williams for his original contributions to the field of trading. Disclaimer The information provided in this content is for educational and informational purposes only and should not be construed as financial advice, investment recommendations, or an offer to buy or sell any securities or financial instruments. Trading financial markets involves significant risk, including the potential loss of capital. Past performance is not indicative of future results. You are solely responsible for your trading decisions and should conduct your own research or consult with a licensed financial advisor before making any financial decisions. The creator of this content assumes no liability for any losses or damages resulting from reliance on the information provided. By engaging with this content, you acknowledge and accept these risks.
CShort
by Tradius_Trades
5
Soybeans: Bullish Butterfly Pattern | What Traders Should ExpectCBOT:ZS1! Soybeans: A Bullish Butterfly Pattern Soybeans have recently completed a bullish butterfly pattern at $1018. This pattern suggests an expected price target of $1268, supported by strong bullish divergence signals. Monitoring the Support Levels We should closely monitor the support structure around $947. If this level holds, the bullish pattern remains intact. However, if the price breaks below this support, the pattern could shift into a bullish crab pattern, potentially targeting $810 at the 161.8% Fibonacci extension. What Does This Mean for Traders? Bullish Sentiment: The bullish butterfly pattern presents an opportunity for long positions with a target of $1268. Risk Management: Be prepared with stop-loss orders, as the reversal pattern could fail, and the market might continue in the downtrend. Support Levels: Watch the $947 support level closely. A break could indicate a shift in market direction. Soybeans are currently in a bullish setup, with the potential for a price rise to $1268. However, stay alert to the $947 support level, as a break could signal a continuation of the downtrend towards $810. Happy Trading, André Cardoso
CLong
by Andre_Cardoso