November 2022 SoybeansInitial thoughts on hedge/pricing targets with the current Market Structure for 2022 Soybeans
SOY1! trade ideas
November 2022 SoybeansNovember22 Soybeans – Weekly: Consolidation above 12.00 and looking for direction. The blue Tenkan is about to cross under the red kijun. Support is 12.02 and 11.84 with risk down at 11.50. A break below would target the 10.97-10.75 area.
Resistance against the red Kijun line at 12.32 and then the down trending line. Initial targets at 12.95-13.13. Upside potential on a breakout will look for 14.14.
January Soybeans - DailyJanuary Soybeans - Daily: The January contract shows a different picture than the continuous. Jan beans did break above the trend line and 24% retracement, but fell short of the 38% target. The cloud resistance stopped beans at 12.89. The move below the trend line is concerning. There is a Harmonic Pattern potential for a reversal at 11.93-11.81. We need a couple of daily closes above the trend line and the red kijun line currently at 12.30 to keep this from continuing bearish. A break out above the trend line, the cloud, and 24% retracement could excite the bulls for strong gains. **Again this is volatile, Use options to help make decisions if needed…
Soybeans Weekly continuous chartSoybean – Weekly Cont: Soybeans struggled to get weekly closes inside the cloud and now working to break below the blue Tenkan line. A High to Low cycle needs to see a break above the trend line and above the 24% retracement to move out of bearish territory. The failure below 12.96 suggests we are not bullish. A weekly close below 12.30 targets the 11.81 lo. **Caution, many times a failure to move above the 24% target suggests a new low. 11.67, 11.52 and 11.37 would be targets below with 11.14 the primary target.
We need a weekly close above 12.30 and a recovery soon back into the cloud with price action above 12.96 to negate the bear.
Longterm Soybean Market structureCurrent Market Structure: **(Like Corn) Sensitive, with extreme bandwidth** The current Domestic and World Supply & Demand numbers paired with recent inflationary threats support a price base range (IMO) from 10.00 to 12.00. Currently risk has been to the upside and inflationary threats elevated, keeping beans elevated as well. There are to many variables that affect the fundamental picture, expect volatile markets untill the Market structure becomes more defineable.
Resistance area from 12.75 to 14.00 and then 16.00 area. **12.75 to 14.00 is an area that some pricing and protection should be encouraged
Support area is 11.80 to 11.40. Further Risk is 10.00 – 9.00.
continuation pattern. this is an update on my previous post. a higher low on the shorter term time frame was my cue to prep myself for another move to the upside. atm, we have an inverted head and shoulders formation within a bull flag pattern on the 30-min.
Soybeans: Close to a buy signal once again...The last time we had a perfect storm situation to buy grains, we had a monster rally in both corn and beans. We are now in a similar situation, with the recent surge in Nat Gas affecting fertilizer prices. Weather in Brazil is problematic and China is struggling to produce grains locally...We are once again nearing a situation where reward to risk for buying into grains is tremendous. I'm long Corn futures already for a couple days and waiting for the daily chart to trigger a technical buy signal in Nov Beans to go long as well.
The last weekly signal expires by next week, as a failure, price hit really oversold levels and reached monthly support (see green shaded area). Implications are a retest of the weekly down trend mode (as shown by the arrow on chart), at least, which can then evolve into a new weekly uptrend, once the daily trend turns up. And potentially trigger a new monthly signal similar to the one we had before...This is an interesting juncture to enter long term positions in grain futures.
Cheers,
Ivan Labrie.
trend continuationprice has settled on support as seen on the 4-hr timeframe. expecting a lower low setup on the shorter timeframes for price to resume its ascent.
opportunity for re-entrysoy went from being one of the hottest commodities to losing all its steam. a double bottom, a classic reversal pattern, was formed last week. after descending for months, a retracement to the 50/61 fib level could mark the beginning of an uptrend.
some confluence: the DBA broke out of its ascending triangle chart pattern.
Soybean Bollinger Band SqueezeThree squeezes are noted on the chart with the current one having a yet-to-be-determined resolution. If it plays out according to theory (source: John Bollinger book "Bollinger on Bollinger Bands"), the price action will begin a strong move either up or down. Based on the descending triangle-like nature of the current formation, and the bearish readings on the MACD, I'm watching for a price break to the downside. If it breaks to the upside, I'll be bewildered.
The price bar coloration is based on the MACD Hybrid BSH which is a script I made and is available for anyone to use. The colorization logic is explained in the script. Basically it interprets whether the standard MACD is bullish, bearish, or neutral. I'm watching for a red signal which would be triggered by the MACD crossing to the underside of the signal line again. I'm setting an alert to 1240'0.
Soybeans minor support tradeQuick and dirty trade idea on soybeans. Nothing fancy by any stretch of the imagination.
Previous 11.85 support is being tested, maybe we can make a dollar or two based on a quick pivot to the upside. As a result, a very tight stop loss is in order, this trade has a very high reward / risk ratio. No time will be wasted, the market shall crash though support and we move on to other trades, or perhaps we can make a small profit.
Continuous SoybeansWithout a S. American weather problem soybeans could struggle. Corn and wheat are doing the heavy lifting. I am neutral this market for now.
Soybeans US Dollar: Usually trends lower into major China export programs. Trends higher after export program concludes.
Some resistance ahead. A move lower would help grain exports….
COT:
Commercial Net (green) is tipping lower, about neutral. Selling by farmer to commercial met by equal buying of end users.
Commercial Shorts (yellow) recently adding to shorts, but pace is far behind last year. Last year the farmer sold out at harvest, leaving the Cooperatives heavily short and the funds long. Leaving the end users open to upside risk….
Commercial Longs have been adding, locking in the high crush margins.
Funds are exiting their longs
**These indicators lag behind change in trends. Currently using this data as an observation as it is too early to give a signal if low is in. A lower move nearby doesn’t appear to have staying power for a complete season….
sourbeansinverse headnshoulders out of descending triangle, good pattern combination.
looking for 100 MA
Updated wave count on short soybeansI have updated my wave count on short soybeans. I am posting it as a new idea. Maybe I'm suppose to update the old?? IDK , new to this s**t.
South American weather is ideal for planting-this is not bullish soybeans. Crush margins are great in the USA keeping basis firm through harvest.
Continuous SoybeansFundamentally looking for soybeans to drift lower through fall and reaching the .618 level of the impulsive move higher that started last year. Since this is a continuation chart I am not married to that level but will be looking for signs of bottoming. The catalyst higher will come with Chinese buying and South American weather premium.
Novembe21 SoybeansNovember21 Soybeans - Daily: Beans have been trading lower, stuck inside a down trending channel. If the trend remains intact next week, support would be offered from 12.09 to 11.84. A hard break below the current trend would target the lower line.
Nearby resistance would be the blue Tenkan line at 12.62 and then the red Kijun line at 12.69.
Beans have failed to push above either line since mid-July. I will look at reestablishing targets above when we get a daily close above either the red or blue line…
Continuous SoybeansSoybean – Weekly Cont: Beans have continued to lean lower since breaking into the cloud several weeks ago. The 12.40-12.60 area is supportive but a move below could take beans to the 11.80 -11.40 area.
Resistance is the blue down trending TenKan line currently in the 13.08 area.
Soybean Spread Broke Validation SupportSoybean Spread SZF2022-ZSH2022 Became Invalid by breaking its Support level by almost two pints. Put on radar for a re entry long when price get back in the support area. Learn more about analyzing and trading spreads by using the most innovative platform available @spreadcharts
Soy beans longBreak from month open, a quarterly open (april) price was quickly bought, with a weaker dollar this might be able to hit the next quarter level.
* Just an idea I have.
November 21 SoybeansNovember21 Soybeans - Daily: Busy chart with lots going on. Gray arrow points to multiple technical points coming together to mark the high of day on Nov21 beans acting as tough resistance. The gray uptrend line, the red pitchfork, and blue Tenkan line all at once stopped the Post report gains. It will be important for the bulls to close above this area in the next couple of trading days. Resistance above at 13.22.
Lower support would target 12.46-12.25
Continuous SoybeansSoybean – Weekly Cont: Nov21 contract leading this continuous chart. The bean chart is showing the same technical construct as corn. Cloud support has been broken. I would like to see a close above the cloud and the downtrend line…Secondary cloud support down at 11.40. Gap in volume by price confirms the 11.40 potential.
Resistance above the cloud and trendline at 13.67. Plenty of volume between 13.60 and 14.30.
