Soy beans longBreak from month open, a quarterly open (april) price was quickly bought, with a weaker dollar this might be able to hit the next quarter level.
* Just an idea I have.
SOY1! trade ideas
November 21 SoybeansNovember21 Soybeans - Daily: Busy chart with lots going on. Gray arrow points to multiple technical points coming together to mark the high of day on Nov21 beans acting as tough resistance. The gray uptrend line, the red pitchfork, and blue Tenkan line all at once stopped the Post report gains. It will be important for the bulls to close above this area in the next couple of trading days. Resistance above at 13.22.
Lower support would target 12.46-12.25
Continuous SoybeansSoybean – Weekly Cont: Nov21 contract leading this continuous chart. The bean chart is showing the same technical construct as corn. Cloud support has been broken. I would like to see a close above the cloud and the downtrend line…Secondary cloud support down at 11.40. Gap in volume by price confirms the 11.40 potential.
Resistance above the cloud and trendline at 13.67. Plenty of volume between 13.60 and 14.30.
Soybean look for Long position Looking for Long position at price 12.850-12.876 with target 13.014 & 13.144 in extension.
TAYOR
Broadening Pattern in Soybean Futures with a Target of 1440Trend Analysis
The main view of this trade idea is on the 2-Hour Chart. Soybean Futures is experiencing a broadening pattern in the respective timeframe. This pattern comes with increased volatility as the trendlines are expanding outward. It is projected that the commodity will rally towards 1440, around the sighting of a gap lower. An indicative stop loss is set at around 1325, a little below the support trend line.
Technical Indicators
There has been a bullish crossover on the short (25-MA) and medium (75-MA) fractal moving averages. Soybean futures are also above the respective MAs. The RSI is above the 50 level with the KST having a positive Crossover. These are all bullish indicators for the commodity.
Recommendation
The recommendation will be to go long at market. Stop loss will be set around the 1325 price level and a target of 1440. This produces a risk-reward ratio of 2.46.
Disclaimer
The views expressed are mine and do not represent the views of my employers and business partners. Persons acting on these recommendations are doing so at their own risk. These recommendations are not a solicitation to buy or to sell but are for purely discussion purposes. At the time publishing, I have a position in Soybean futures.
The inflation trade is not dead! It has just started.The inflation trade is not over. People's lives, in particular in the US, are about to deteriorate significantly. Or rather improve, with food getting more expensive and people forced to live more simple lives, more in touch with nature. The official measures and consensus will say deteriorate.
Traders positions have bottomed in the strict sense, with the price "bottoming" but not really as the price bounced.
If you look at the charts there was a similar price pattern recently
You might say the price hasn't already taken into account the wage costs and workers not going to work because they get welfare. Or you might say maybe it has. At the same time maybe farmers are getting undeclared workers with all the migrants? Either way you know what? The majority of institutions and their economists have an irrational bias in favor of the government and I don't think they are fully pricing what they should be pricing. And since the dramatic events in Afghanistan that irrational bias in favor of has been hit very hard, so maybe now they can stop being emotional and start actually pricing things more correctly. Plus on top of that if the issue of minimum wage has not fully impacted the price well it will add additional fuel to the rocket ship.
The US has reduced its oil output but recently it has begged the OPEP+ to increase their production and keep prices low. Maybe it will beg the farmers soon? There are a lot of farmers on below living wage here in west Europe especially France where the state says no no to scaling up "we want only small family businesses" but yes yes to cheap imports from huge industrial complexes in Romania. The price of Soybeans is close to ATH, but nowhere near inflation adjusted ATH. Maybe our local farmers will be able to have decent profits (the average is 14,000 a year I think, not even minimum wage, and not counting debts, and it's not a 9 to 5 job obviously there are no weekends), I will be glad if the price goes up. Not sure about how much they make they might be lobbying I don't know. And stdev is big of course.
Volume is also at its lowest, was, until this week. The inflation trade has been forgotten, the herd has been reassured by the FED. No one is paying attention. This is the typical bear market bottom. Maximum opportunity. The herd (pros) will join when there is a breakout and certainty in the move and it's almost over (or not who knows). The herd of retail will never buy because they don't trade this so don't expect a bubble like sugar in the 70s, but who knows...
The price of the lumber christmas tree has fully retraced! Maybe people that were holding off their house purchases are going to buy now. One the info reaches them I guess...
The liars can continue their nonsense reassuring speeches, and gullible fools will eat it up, but factually the printing is way more important now than it was before. Before M1 went up 50% in 7 years, about 5% a year, and that was already a bit crazy and alarmed the perma bears such as Peter Schiff, it even alarmed bankers and bureaucrats writting reports for the government. But now it's going up 20% in just 1 year! Not counting the big covid increase here, I'm just measuring the small line at an angle of 37° shown here:
The promises are wind carrying waves.
The chart is where the real info is. It has been going up faster and faster for 20 years. It will continue until it goes vertical and collapses like the bubbling pyramid scheme it is. Peter Schiff called it! Their only way to get out of this mess is to print EVEN MOAR. Until it all blows up.
Insanity is doing the same thing over and over again and expecting a different result.
Soybeans: Is enough enough for the inflation trade? ⬇️Soybeans and other agricultural commodities are beginning to show a lot of weakness as the inflation fears and bad weather begins to subside. Are we headed lower?
Soybean Futures September 2021 ContractHey there. Just one question, do you see any buying pressure in the Volume Oscillator? No? Yeap me too, so we will strong on short. Price will make(finger cross) a reversal at the trendline and we will be exiting our position in the next resistance turn support.
P/S: My position was entered yesterday at 1412.6. The reason why I posted this is because some of my friend were saying that the price is currently bullish and already making a reversal. Some of them has close their position, I will stick to my plan, which I will exit at the next support area @ 1372. Option 2, I will exit if its break the trendline and has no mean to reverse down.
Good Luck
November 21 SoybeansNovember21 Beans-Daily: The upper trend line on the red down trending fork proved to be a respected area of support/resistance. Support today is in the 13.72 area. Resistance against the pitchfork for today is 14.41 area. I will keep an eye on these lines for trending support and resistance. If we move up to fill the next targets for beans, we would target price and time up to 14.52 by 7/23-7/24….
A move above the gray median line would have targets up to 16.28 with a price & time target around 8/13. *** I wouldn’t set my sights on 16.28 and hold off selling anything up to that point***
I will be focused on the 15.11 -15.45 targets if we get there. The 15.11 target could set up a “Bull Trap” reversal. **Buy stops just above the 14.80 high, but failure to carry momentum higher….
Week 29: ZSX2021 Market has not broken from the uptrend channelFor the whole week the market is still ranging within the uptrend channel.
However, as to date, we have seen a sign that the price is about to go down, we just have to wait for another final confirmation.
Overall I am bearish bias; when it is time to drop, it will go down to $12.80
Nov21 SoybeansNovember21 Soybeans - Daily: Current price finding resistance against the upper line on the red down trending pitchfork, and 62% retracement target at 13.88. Support will be the lower trend line on the gray up trending fork between 13.00 and 13.32. Targets above at 14.28 and 14.52. Any push above the median line on the gray up trend fork will allow for us to look at targets above 14.80…
Continuous SoybeansSoybean – Weekly Cont: Aug contract leading the continuous chart. **Not all end user bids offered off the August Contract**
Using the recent swing low from 12.89 for retracement targets, the 50% 14.78 target aligns with the red kijun line and will be a tough line to cross. Above take your pick at 15.23, 15.86 and 16.24. Support is 14.33, 13.78 and 12.89. Further risk against the cloud with extended risk at 12.43, 11.43 and 10.00.
Week 28: ZSX2021 Market is still in consolidationThis week update was a bit late because not much activity since the beginning of the week.
The price is still in consolidation mode, ranging tightly in up trend.
There is an opportunity to short, however the Risk Reward ratio is only around 1:1.3 which is not favorable.
We wait until the price breaks the channel and we can enter with smaller risk.
Week 27: ZSN2021 A quick short opportunity Last week the support level did not break (yellow zone) and resulted a huge jump.
Early this week we saw the sellers were back in the market, however they didn't have enough momentum to push the price lower.
Based on today's chart reading, $14.63 is a good area to sell.
Stop Loss will be at $14.83 and Take Profit is at $14.20
This will give us RRR = 2.17R
Bullish momentum is still strong, so this will be a quick trade.
Week 26: ZSN2021 Consolidation weekIf you are still holding your short position from last week, it is time to manually close it.
The price was stopped at $13.28 area where it formed "W" or mini double-bottom; does this mean a reversal to be bullish?
My upper limit is at $13.82, if the price breaks and close higher that $13.82, then YES, it is likely to be bullish.
However, if the price broke the yellow box / support level, then downtrend will continue.
Therefore, this week we just wait until it breaks, then we follow the market direction.
Week 25: ZSN2021 We are still on Shorting mode.Last week prices went down hard, I didn't anticipate to go down that fast. It broke the structure and the major trend is now a Down Trend.
There more opportunity to short the market until it reaches $12.93
Here is my trade this week:
Sell Limit at $14.37 area (you can short now too)
Stop Loss at $14.76
Take Profit at $12.93
Risk Reward Ratio = 3.68R
Good luck!
ZSX2021 November21 SoybeansNovember21 Soybeans: Thursday’s low at 12.40 fell short of the primary target at 12.30. If 12.40 is confirmed as a swing low, I will look at upside targets more closely. Risk below still remains between 12.30 and 12.22. Look for resistance above against any of the lines drawn. If the 12.40 low holds, nearby resistance at 13.32, 13.60 and 13.88
ZSN2021 July21 SoybeansJuly Soybeans – Weekly: Last week’s big ugly red bar was the first weekly close below the blue Tenkan and the red Kijun line since August of 2020. Support is last week’s low at 13.23.
Resistance is the red Kijun and 38% retracement at 14.55 and the blue Tenkan and 50% retracement at 14.95
Soyboy FuturesThe amount of Soyboys in this space is an inverse function of hyperinflation. the more soy we need = the more Soyboys you will have to put up with in your local dystopia dispensary.
in otherwords:
Have you seen the wycoff accumulation on Soy boys? this is looking like accumultion and it is being rejected at a critical zone (historically and current msm narrative speaking as well); all on the cusp and heels of G7 and inflationary fears from the dollar.
but dw fedday makes anything right as rain.
look at Gold, silver, and most other commodites.
the dollar is a dying asset and this sign of strength is your red flag.
Beans in the teens!If you look back to the lows of '06 to the highs of '08 ( $5 to almost $16) to the all time highs in 2012 of almost $18 you will see that 6 months in to this raging bean rally there is till time to get on board and enjoy the ride higher. Although I have traded in / out of the market for months, I would have been better served to have gotten long and stayed that way - period. There's room to run for many technical and fundamental reasons as well. I encourage a healthy debate, in the comment section. Thanks and good luck to both sides of the trade. That's what makes a market.
