STZB34 trade ideas
$STZ Constellation Brands earnings surprise. The large beer and wine companies have taken quite a battering in the past year from the Liquor and craft beer culture. STZ has taken steps to offset that demise, with the streamlining of product and more recent investments on Canopy Growth for a sustainable future in the Cannabis Industry. Future gains are on the cards, long it.
Bottom Fishing STZTradingView
Openposition at $163.67
Stop loss at $163
Take profit at $170
Why this play?
Thinking we may get a break out on cgc and this will follow.
plus rsi and triple bottom here.
STZ forms a bear pennant after a slew of bad news!Constellation Brands has enjoyed a massive run-up in the past 6 years and has come sharply off of its highs (around $230) in the past 5 months. STZ is a juggernaut in the alcohol industry and has deserved its high stock price given a very strong earnings growth trajectory. Lately, however, money has come out of the traditional vice stocks (alcohol and cigarettes) and poured into cannabis-related equities. STZ has noted that their growth is slowing (once in the more recent quarterly and again in a conference on February 20th). In an acknowledgement of slowing growth, STZ has taken a stake in pot stocks to diversify their business. While potentially a solid long term investment, STZ is currently showing a lot of vulnerability in the short term.
Technically, STZ was knocked down on those statements on February 20th and has since started to form a bearish pennant as seen in the charts above. I'd like to be a short seller of STZ on a breakdown from this pennant with an ultimate target of the $150 low that we saw on their last earnings report.
Short STZ on a trendline break
Target 1: 160
Target 2: 150
Stop: $172
Constellation Brands (STZ) - Completed Extended Bat PatternIn late June prices gaped lower and started a sell-off that would mark down prices $70 or so. The decline was more rapid from October with prices in a cascade-like fall in December.
Constellation Brands (STZ) has completed a Harmonic Extended Bat Pattern .
Based on this and with the broad market at it back I target $199 as a profit objective. Above that I have a $250 target. But baby steps first.
Today's bounce signals a potential bottom.
Aggressive traders could probe the long side of STZ at current levels after the profit warning sell off two days ago.
Risk a close below $144 and look for a recovery back to the $195-$200 area in the months ahead.
The gap from Jan 7th opening around the $166.70 level was filled.
Note this is a 2400 minute (4 hour) chart.
Lets see what happens.
S.
STZ Oversold Hook Trade IdeaSTZ - Oversold Hook Trade Idea
With a bullish move over the 8ma at 162.48,
STZ ended with an engulfing candle on the
daily. Look for entry above previous HOD at
166.72 for a move to the 20ma at 172.78.
$STZ - Short - Macd trend breakdown, divergence price action RSI$STZ - Short - Macd trend breakdown, divergence price action RSI
STZ: Earning play (Oct 4th). I see this coming down.formed h&s on 1hr and time for this flush. Cannabis involvement is little too much and will show up in the er results imho.
STZ: Seeing h&s on 1hr and this can flush down to 208ishThis has been running hot for quite some time now and need to cool off a little. Bring some lime :)
Booze & Weed Equals a Good Time AND a Good InvestmentPot stocks have been on fire, er, smoking! Wait, that's still a pun, right? Well then, pot stocks are on the roll! Damn it. I've been watching too much CNBC. Anyways...
The rally in pot stocks over the past several days has been impressive, especially given the catalyst - Constellation Brands (STZ) made a $4bil investment in CGC for about 38% of the company. Other names in the space benefited from the deal, names like TLRY, CRON, ACBFF, and many others, along with the ETF that tracks a dime bag worth of companies - MJ. (Full disclosure - I'm long MJ shares and calls, long CGC calls and puts.)
The pure plays aren't for everyone... their volatility is more than some can stomach (doesn't weed help nausea?). For those sorts of investors, the best way to participate may be in STZ itself. You may ask "why?" Well...
STZ's core business is selling booze, which much like tobacco and caffeine, pretty much sells itself. Morality beefs aside, the cash flows are incredibly stable and plentiful, enough to offer holders of STZ a decent 1.4% dividend, which, by the way, has grown more than 40% in a year. It still has room to grow, too, as the payout ratio is a modest 22%. Another fundamental note - shares are not necessarily cheap at 22x this year's earnings estimates, and 20x next year's estimates. However, revenues have grown about 23% over the past five years, as have cash flows, so you're getting good growth from this cash cow.
Technically speaking, shares are in a downtrend. But that's okay, as this long-term play needs to be accumulated over time as prices permit, which is exactly what I'm doing. I prefer buying closer to the recent support at $201, but ideally I'd like to buy closer to the open gap near $190 (also a 50% Fib. retracement). Should that fail, additional, more meaningful support lies underneath at $179, the 61.8% retracement.
It's high time that weed gets some legitimacy, and that we can profit from the process is dope. Look for other majors like DEO, BUD, SAM, TAP, and others to follow suit, as well as tobacco majors like MO and PM.
Constellation Brands Oversold and Below MAs 4-7% OpptySTZ is setting up for a potential return to the mean 4% higher than current prices. Constellation Brands has been range trading all of 2018. A return to the higher end of the range ~230s would be a 7% move from here. Slower moving stock, probably up to 2 weeks before making it to 4% target.
Double TopBearish Divergence/Bearish Convergence/Bearish Hidden Divergence. Double Top. Breakaway Gap to the downside on huge volume. Gap'N'Go?
Constellation Brands - $STZ - Dip on hot growing stock! I'll be looking for confirmation of continuation of $STZ 's bullish growth before buying in, but this one's on my radar.
Ex-dividend date of 5/10 likely didn't help push it much higher in the past few days.
There is a catalyst in the works though -- not only are earnings to be reported on 6/30/18 but they are invested in Canopy Growth (Canadian cannabis grower) whose stock is to be listed on the NYSE in the near future. From what I found they have a 10% stake in Canopy Growth. Either way, I look forward to the run-up towards earnings. I'm going to wait to exit some other positions then go ahead and pick some calls, likely for 6/29 or so.
STZ Ichimoku Analysis LONGIchimoku is bullish on weekly, daily, and 4hr time frames. STZ posted great earnings and a clear trend line shows a great path forward over the coming months. A sell signal would be a TK cross or a break below kijun depending on your risk tolerance
STZ LongMACD, ADX, Stoch RSI and EMA Cross confirm further upward movement. Stop can be placed below the previous low. Risk Reward 2.83
STZ - LongI see a good opportunity to buy shares. At the beginning of this trading session, the position will be transferred to breakeven to protect itself from the next surprises from the market.
I expect from the market the next move:
If the price succeeds in breaking out of the resistance channel, we can count on a good profit.
P/E 27.04
Forward P/E 23.28
Good luck!
