T1WL34 trade ideas
TWLO BLUE SKY BREAKOUTA system used to take advantage of assets that are in the middle of an intermediate uptrend or advancing phase. The objective is to find periods of temporary weakness or pauses within a trend that can be used to initiate positions. Positions are held from days to weeks with the goal of accumulation of numerous small profits.
Blue Sky breakouts are different from coils since this set-up remains above the 20-day EMA and have not completed the 6-week time requirement. Support and resistance lines can be observed when zooming in to hourly charts. This set-up usually appears in strong bull or momentum markets. Confine stock picking in sectors or markets demonstrating strength.
Set-up:
Price has to be at least 6-month high, preferably ATH
Consolidation which lasts for 2 weeks (maximum of 4 weeks) and has to be above the 20-day EMA.
Almost no price retracement.
Trigger:
MACD crossing up indicating momentum on price accelaration
Execution:
Break of pattern resistance with strong impulsive break out candles supported by above average volume
Management:
Price Targets set through Fibonacci Extension
If price retraces and hits stop loss point, set-up may be turning into a coil and may need more time to complete.
TWLO LONG INTO EARNINGS OUT ON 8/10Twilio expects its revenue to rise 33%-35% annually in the second quarter, but withdrew its prior full-year outlook for 30%-31% revenue growth in light of the COVID-19 pandemic. The decision wasn’t surprising since many other tech companies recently suspended their forecasts, but Twilio’s core business seems well-insulated from the pandemic.
My suggestion is to get into this trade early before there is a huge difference in the bid/ask price. The current stock price is $224.50.
The $225 Call for Week Ending 8/14 is Bid $ 17.25 Ask $19.40
The $227 Call for Week Ending 8/14 is Bid $ 16.25 Ask $18.40
If you are going to try and get into the trade a good time is normally around 3:15-3:30 pm EST when the sell off starts look for the option price to turn red and try and bid lower. You can always do a vertical call or some other type of option to pay a cheaper price.
TWLO - Potential Short Opportunity - Gap tradeTwilio Stock has had a great run up to over $215. Two Insiders are selling stock over the last week, selling a combined 52,000 shares. The stock hit an all time high, and we might see some consolidation.
We look at a couple technical indicators, specifically the RSI which is trending downwards, during this entire spike of the price. In fact, the price almost doubled, from $122, and the Relative Strengh Index is showing a weakening buying volume during that time.
Looking at the chart, we notice a gap trade is active, right around the price of $124. The price rose from $124 to $152 in a VERY short time period, which is likely to see the price of $124 again in the future. Judging that is also around the Fibonacci Resistance level of 61.8%, I think there is a low-moderate chance of seeing that price again.
I will be looking to enter at $145 - $150, in hopes that the growing company will see stock prices of the all time high again.
This is IF the stock takes a dip.
TWLO BREAKOUTI posted an idea for TWLO two days ago and it looks like it's ready to continue its uptrend from a tight consolidation. It briefly established a new high today and the bluesy breakout set-up is potentially going ahead, if overall market sentiment remains bullish. This company has been on a tear since 2017 and has provided me a hefty 400% return since 2018. TWLO was my thesis in school and I learned about it's massive addressable market.
Twilio provides CPaaS (Communication Platform as a Service) and has a large moat being an early mover. It's impressive growth are as follows:
Sector Median % Diff. to Sector
Revenue Growth (YoY) 67.91% 7.24% 838.52%
Revenue Growth (FWD) 43.11% 6.38% 576.22%
Operating CF Growth (FWD) 117.24% 10.32% 1,035.68%
The work from home shift and growing adoption of e-commerce serves as a tailwind for its rich valuation as the market is pricing in its profitability.
On Technical Analysis:
MACD has yet to cross up for a conviction buy. However, On Balance Volume (OBV) Oscillator reacts faster than the MACD indicating an increased buying pressure and has broken out from the trend line on the daily chart. Zooming in on the 4H charts signals the beginning of a rally. Price has also broken out from a tight range.
Reasonable price objectives are set on the chart. I hope this helps. Good luck and happy trading!
Twilio is a High Probability TradeWith the stock market bouncing higher off support I felt it would be a no brainer to scan through some chart for some high probability trades. Luckily, I found one... Twilio .
You're Saying buy a Stock up 200%?
Yes, I am saying that buying Twilio isn't all that bad given the set up. Regardless of whether Twilio is up 200% since the March 16 low price action is setting up for further expansion to the upside. See the 4-hour chart below.
Above is the Elliott Wave picture for Twilio . As you can see the move that led to a large GAP is clearly a wave 3. The strength of the move up is undeniable. If you know Elliott Wave you'll know that wave 4's like to consolidate into triangle formations. Here for Twilio, we have just that!
On the daily chart above I have an ascending triangle drawn out. I also highlight how MACD is finally beginning to turn up as price approaches resistance for a forth time in a month.
Price targets are 1) the ascending triangle measured move which equals $232 or 2) Fib level 1.236 measured from the start of wave 1 to the end of wave 3 which equals $272.
I think at this point you know which direction I am leaning. For the record I have bought Twilio stock and will update as I off load my position. Bias: Bullish.
