4/7/25 - $tsm - Bot more pre mkt <$1364/7/25 :: VROCKSTAR :: NYSE:TSM
Bot more pre mkt <$136
- normalized fcf yield of nearly 5% (but 4% on an investment year this year), goes to implied >6% next year
- buying this, you don't pick horses, but only the ones that can afford the slots/ are growing fastest. e.g. if you think googl's silicon deployed locally will eat away at nvda share, or you think amd eats share... or you think ____, NYSE:TSM will serve it
- i think the *only* albeit valid counterpoint to stock-work-from-here is the china-taiwan risk <>
- yes and no. china is in process/ has developed own semi supply chain that it won't be sharing. it's own tsm, it's own asml, it's own nvda... this is an arms race, you don't share your arms suppliers.
- so i don't think anything dramatic is likely to take place in the real world. just the headline world. but that's just a belief and so it's not a core position (TSM).
- the big dawgs, nvda as best example, is objectively a buy here. at the same time, it's the most liquid/ lagest and subject to index flows and leverage. so i'm shooting using TSM bc it offers me similar exposure to the category, in theory it can run a bit more unbounded (because the terminal is less in question vs. say NVDA - from the market's perspective) and i think drawdown here is probably similar to something like NVDA.
- if i owned nvda here, would i sell it? no. would i add? maybe/ yeah. but give the way i'm setting up my book to be a bit more picks and shovels-i'd like to think it's a big more defensive (i lol'd writing that bit, but i'm mostly serious)... i just like this beta better.
- and yeah... >40% net margins, PE sub 15x in the pre-market sub $136/shr and CAGR'ing a fat 25+ for N2Y is good beta. i have ammo to go. will add lower, strategically.
will comment more on the mkt as it unfolds today. but i've been mostly heads down. my TL;DR is that i'd like to believe we're closer to a floor now given attempted breakdown this weekend and we're floating above the lows. tough guess here, and guesses are wrong, but if we do puke today and tmr, i think you have a very solid setup for a tradable floor. i don't think these tariff rates actually stick. i do think countries (like vietnam we saw friday, argentina recently) do have to come to the table. the rate goes closer to 10% for most. we march on.
friends. we r not gonna be making toaster ovens in toledo.
stay focused on stuff that generates tons of cash, even if there is disruption. keep leverage low, or if you are using leverage, liquidation points or expires deep ITM, far away (why u think i keep using LEAPS in this environment).
DM me if you wanna chat. or comment below if u wanna troll. just call em like i see em.
remember - wealth isn't measured in USD's ;)
it's just a game. let's play to win, though.
V
