U1BE34 trade ideas
$UBER - Could see $28Uber has been in down trend channel. In recent couple of trading session it has been unable to break above $24 and stay above it. I believe it is about to break above $24 and head towards $28.
$28 is the resistance area where upper trend channel meets the prior support level.
Target 1 - $28
Target 2 - $37
Not an investment advice.
Uber: A Robust Platform Ripe For Future AcquisitionIntroduction and Thesis
Uber (NYSE: UBER) is a large cap, ride-share company that operates in over 63 countries serving over 110 million users. The company is most commonly known for its ride-share and food delivery services. UBER’s on-demand technology platform could eventually be used for the commercialization of autonomous vehicles. Their tech system includes the ability to track a driver in real time as well as an integrated payments experience (10+ payment options). With UBER’s well-known name, extensive worldwide reach, leading technology, and growth potential the company can serve as an attractive acquisition for leading tech companies
Platform Potential
UBER has attempted to develop its own autonomous vehicle. The company, however faced various obstacles in R & D and sold its research division to Aurora (an autonomous vehicle tech company). UBER’s impressive platform could serve as an invaluable asset to the top autonomous vehicle players. Although Alphabet Inc. (NYSE: GOOG) has abandoned it’s autonomous vehicle production, it has already invested $250 million into Uber and a total of 1.1 billion in the promotion of self-driving vehicles. GOOG’s acquisition history includes approximately 232 companies. The company is a strong supporter of autonomous vehicles and an acquisition of UBER is a strong possibility.
The first generation of autonomous vehicles will undoubtedly need close monitoring and testing when first released. All trips will not be autonomous capable and a ride-share platform will be needed in order to fulfill rides that will need a driver. Uber announced they will provide up to 50,000 fully electric Tesla vehicles available for drivers to rent by 2023. Conversion of inventory to electric power combined with their 110 million user base creates an attractive buying opportunity for leading tech company Tesla Inc. (NYSE: TESLA).
JOBY Aviation (NYSE: JOBY) has already purchased UBER’s air taxi service Uber Elevate. Leading autonomous vehicle companies will need a platform in promotion of products and expansion. In the past, Uber has leveraged its platform assets (drivers and consumer users) to find new sources of value for its platform and the stakeholders who are part of it. Eventually, I believe it’s platform will be of unmatched value and leading tech companies will consider acquiring the company as a whole.
Buy Out Benefits and Risks
There are benefits to shareholders when a company is bought out. When the company is bought, it can cause an increase in the share price. The acquiring company can offer a premium price to entice the target company to sell. Once the announcement is made, there can be an increase of traders to purchase at the offered price which can increase the stock's value. You may also keep in mind the price of the stock may fluctuate based on rumors regarding the progress of the buyout or any difficulties within the deal process. This encourages volatility and higher risk. Acquiring companies also have the option to rescind their offer, shareholders may not support the deal, or securities regulators may not allow the deal. In general, during a buy out the stock price of the target company tends to spike and shareholders can benefit from this transaction.
Growth and Future Outlook
UBER faced a decline in sales during the pandemic shelter-in-place orders. Mobility was reduced resulting in plummeting sales for rideshare companies. UBER has however, made a healthy recovery and has maintained steady growth. Sales have been gradually recovering since April 2020. The company’s revenue for the quarter ending December 31, 2021 was 5.778B, a 82.56% increase YoY. Adjusted EBITDA for Q4 2021 was $74.7 million. In Q1 2022 revenue grew 136% YoY to $6.9 billion. Q1 2022 Adjusted EBITDA was $168 million, a $527 million increase YoY. Despite pandemic restraints, they have managed to grow to over 10,000 cities in roughly 72 countries by the end of 2021. The company has also expanded its business model by including delivery services (Uber Eats), and matching carriers to shippers (Uber Freight). They have also diversified their mobility business by expanding into car rentals, incorporating healthcare related travel and adding other modes of transport like taxis, tuk rentals, and motorcycles. Their platform, technology, and large consumer base provide strong future growth potential.
Valuation
The company is currently not profitable with an EPS of -0.28. Although the company is losing revenue it is still valued at over 50 billion dollars. Losses were attributed to a 5.6 billion headwind related to the company's equity investments. These included losses related to Uber's sell off to Grab, Aurora, and Didi. Despite these losses UBER has managed to almost double revenue YoY. Revenue growth was driven by their delivery service, freight service, and expansion of ride sharing services. Share price is currently considered undervalued.
Risks
The company has been facing driver shortages which can affect revenue and company efficiency. Drivers are a key part of UBER’s business model and reported high gas prices has made it difficult for drivers to maintain a living. This however, illuminates the autonomous vehicle potential in increasing growth and efficiency for ride-sharing companies.
UBER has strong competition, Lyft being one of its main competitors. Lyft does carry the potential to out-innovate UBER. However, I believe UBER’s established reputation along with extensive worldwide reach cannot compare to Lyft. UBER operates worldwide while Lyft only operates in the US and Canada. If Lyft were to outrank UBER, it may take a very long time.
Summary
Uber's diversification, operational efficiencies, and expanded business model has allowed for significant growth and increased revenue. Although currently not profitable I believe UBER has high growth potential in the coming years. Tech companies will need platforms in order to successfully integrate autonomous vehicles and rideshare company acquisitions could be a very strong possibility. For these reasons I rate UBER a buy.
Disclosure: I/we have no stock, option or similar derivative position in any of the companies mentioned, and no plans to initiate any such positions within the next 72 hours. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article. I am not a financial advisor and this is for educational purposes only.
UBER To Test Pandemic LowsIn this update we review the recent price action in UBER and identify the next high probability trading opportunities and price objectives to target
Candle Dropped below trendlineWe had a candle body break below a five-month trendline today. I'll be looking for a continuation tomorrow. Could see a drop-down to $19.70
$UBER Analysis, Key Levels, & Targets… $UBER Analysis, Key Levels, & Targets…
I’m not going to lie… this is NOT the most beautiful chart in the world… but I’m interested in buying UBER at these levels…
Uber has taken over an entire industry and keeps expanding into new opportunities to generate revenue… This is on my list for no matter what happens…. I feel like this is a company that will be around in 50 years… I sold 21 puts for this week...
I want to hear your ideas and, also, what stocks are you guys seeing that are at interesting levels…. I’m really starting to get bullish on a lot of things. Yes… lots of companies will and are going under, but what do you think will stay??
Best of luck and have fun, y’all…
Risky stock in dynamic supportAfter a bloody downtrend, Uber is now oversold and have reached a dynamic support.
$UBER with a Bullish outlook following its earnings #Stocks The PEAD projected a Bullish outlook for $UBER after a Negative Under reaction following its earnings release placing the stock in drift D.
UBER Selloff leads towards 20$ Uber selloff leadus towards 20$.SellOff accelerate after support line broken and it may take us towards 15$.
UBER Might See More Downsides UBER has provided us with a nice curved trend line (in white) with the last touch going to be aligned with 2.618 which is comparable to a previous drop in 2020
Interesting daily chart
UBER Strong Support AreaIf you haven`t sold UBER on this bearish call:
Then you should know that even if they released an extremely bullish guidance for Q2, higher than the estimates, it could face the same problems as LYFT, spend more on driver incentives, and they won`t deliver the expected results.
My price target is the $26.50 support.
Looking forward to read your opinion about it.
UBER looks vulnerable after LYFT last night. Big UBER support level needs to hold. LYFT got hammered so is the bad news now priced in? Anything positive should see a bounce for LYFT. I have just bought some LYFT for a quick bounce but remain bearish longer term. $UBER $LYFT
$UBER on 15min Potential CUP and Handle Pattern in extended$UBER on 15min Potential CUP and Handle Pattern in extended
Please note: Earnings May 4th
What are your thoughts?
Thanks,
Kelly
Beginning of an End - E.3This is not what you invest on for long-term (not even short-term).
"Gas" price and people returning to "restaurants" left no future for Uber, the chart proves.
Outside-inside bar setup on UBEROutside-inside is a great sign of consolidation leading up to a big move. I think we could see a move to the upside because the price that UBER is currently at is in a prior demand zone.
Uber Turning the Corner?UBER looking good here. Down 46% off ATH in early 2021. Uber has seen a slow bleed over the last year, as opposed to the more dramatic, precipitous fall of many other stocks. Price appears to be finding support at a historically active Demand Zone. Support appears to be building on the Daily chart. I'm interested at these prices but I'm expecting some more sideways chop before UBER can break resistance.
-Mercury
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These are my personal views and not financial advice. Please do your own research before investing.
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$UBER 2-1-2U triggered on the weekMight find some resistance at the daily targets, but this is a good swing to 36.88. I like next week contracts if it stays in force. #thestrat #uber
UBERThis chart is quite meaningless to say the least.. all I'm here to post is that I believe Uber sub 35 is a buy at all levels ! To the long side.
#UBER fib leveles #UBER so if the fib levels are correct from our most recent swing low we wicked that .768 level and bounced off for a potential short term opportunity for calls to the upside at the 34, 35, 36 strike as there is a huge level at 37.50, looking at some flow data 35 strike for the 20th of may has 67 thousand OI sitting on it now 40 has 41 thousand both of which are interesting to me. looks like most short dated contracts are looking at that May 20th date or the Jan 2023
$UBER going to go up for a bitAll indicators are showing a bullish rounding price action incoming. The price is following the predictive 21HMA perfectly, there is well defined rounding in the early onset trend. Everything looks to be bullish for the next few days. And it could just be that.
Uber recovering. UBERGoals 0.56, 0.49. Invalidation at 0.89.
We are not in the business of getting every prediction right, no one ever does and that is not the aim of the game. The Fibonacci targets are highlighted in green with invalidation in red. Fibonacci goals, it is prudent to suggest, are nothing more than mere fractally evident and therefore statistically likely levels that the market will go to. Having said that, the market will always do what it wants and always has a mind of its own. Therefore, none of this is financial advice, so do your own research and rely only on your own analysis. Trading is a true one man sport. Good luck out there and stay safe
Uber Inc Fractal MapThis is why I use log. The percentage change will be always the same for the same length of trend. Easier to hunt down the real turning points.
