UPWK Entering Phase E Markup On Shorter TimeframeWyckoff Accumulation Schematic #1 almost complete on a short term timeframe.
Longer term..
Risk is 10%, reward is 120-200%.
Stop loss and invalidation are clearly outlined (at 10% below current price.)
Stock has formed a technical double bottom (textbook) over the last 4 months, and completed this formation with strong support yesterday.
Stock has inverse correlation with most equities (think covid darlings that spiked in times of turmoil).
Stock is strongly correlated with unemployment rates. Rising interest rates tighten credit conditions , revenues should slow.. increasing unemployment. The whole point of all of this is to only slow interest rate hikes when the market shows it's responding to high interest rates. This is evident through unemployment statistics, and inflation growth. We look to inflation to suggest that interest rate hikes are having an impact, we look to unemployment to confirm it. Higher unemployment is coming, which means objective upward pressure for this stock.
Company is buying back debt from convertible notes it has issued, reducing it's overall debt obligation by around 30% (press release yesterday).
A reputable firm analyzed the stock the other day, and placed a 100% price target based on competition and all known pressures on the stock being "well discounted, and well priced in".
Company is increasing their prices as of today by 50% on their most expensive products, and dropping their prices 50% on their cheapest products.
Company has an analyst consensus (average of all) of 62% increase in price from current price.
Stock is down 83% since it's last high, 512 days ago.
Company has surprised revenue expectations for the last 8 consecutive quarters.
Stock has created bullish divergence on the RSI (relative strength index) on long term timeframes , indicating that buyers stepped in to support price in this range 3-4 months ago.
Company is reaching the end of a technical pennant by May 11 2023, and will have a substantial increase in volatility before that time. The pennant is building pressure, consolidating price within a range and coiling the shorter term moving averages, building momentum for a technical breakout.
Upwork isn't going anywhere. Buy. DYOR.
