8/20/24 - $vips - sub $12.. things that go "hrm"8/20/24 :: VROCKSTAR :: NYSE:VIPS
sub $12.. things that go "hrm"
- tough to own any chinese stonks, i get it. NYSE:BABA is arguably the cheapest biggest non-US moat on the planet and has a nice AI story too that is worth peanuts
- i've owned russian assets when the USSA rendered them zeros. i get the risk we face here with election upon us
- also understand these results (notably the guide) wasn't great. but the stock is/ was partially and also incorporating this
- i also don't proclaim to know the catalyst here. this is always risky if you don't size/ risk manage.
- but from a LT perspective, idk how you can look at something that does 2 bn in free cash flow and worth 4-5 bn (and by the way growing in one of the largest e-comm mkts with a nearly 20% market share and doing well in the off-brand category) and say "nah".
- there's always downside. cheap things can get cheaper especially in today's mkt of finding life boats in a world of fastest growing assets (growth is the only scarcity, esp profitable growth *ahem* nvda as king and will remain as such).
- but 3x (cash adjusted) PE, 40-50% fcf yield. i'd say you're not taking a massive risk here as a small LT set and forget punt. looked at options but given the election, the fact i can only go until Jan 2025 and premiums are high on a day like today, i'd probably only consider them if we get a further risk off move closer to the $10 zone and especially below.
- i'm in for 50 bps starter here. idea is a longer-term position and possibly grow it. like the entry is the tl;dr
- take a look. what am i missing?
V