BULLISH limit order
chart is grabbing liquidity from shown buy limit level to go up, let's goooooooooooooo
V2TX34 trade ideas
12/20/24 - $vtex - Patience paid. 50 bps @5.7412/20/24 :: VROCKSTAR :: NYSE:VTEX
Patience paid. 50 bps @5.74
- buying anything sub $1 bn and nevermind "brazilian" is a big ask in my book
- but i love this mgmt team and the biz is growing easily teens bc they have solid B2B customers (who use VTEX to build their site/ payments etc. for instance samsung in latam uses VTEX to run their consumer facing sites+)
- i think you need to consider EV to sales here near 3x for a biz that's
a. been delivering solid growth and likely continues to do so in mid teens top line
b. great mgns, 75% ish GM and expanding EBITDA mgn as the biz gains scale
c. cash generative/ not a burner
d. net cash balance sheet
e. previously mentioned, great mgmt team and solid clients
f. valuation reasonable and likely being somewhat affected by the dollar spike which is affecting any tickers that do biz in latam. so this has been the "fly in the ointment" but also the reason (that we didn't know about when i wrote in june) which would give us another two quarters of info and send us into the $5s
- obvious buy zone is sub $5, but i know/like this and have a healthy cash balance looking to identify good '25 plays at reasonable px's. so i realize this could easily go another 15-20% lower, and that's fine - it's a situation where all else equal i'd take it to a 1-1.5% position.
- the ape zone would be mid to low EUROTLX:4S , but i don't expect that. but it's on my radar for if/when. mr. market sometimes does funny things.
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VTEX: Bullish breakout potential amid consolidationThe chart illustrates VTEX forming a wedge-like consolidation pattern, signaling a potential bullish breakout in the near future. The stock has established strong support at $6.22 and faces key resistance at $8.95. The 200-day SMA is acting as a pivotal resistance level , and a breach above this could confirm a shift in momentum.
The stochastic oscillator indicates the stock is oversold, suggesting a higher probability of upward price movement. If the price breaks above the wedge, t he next significant target is the $12-$14 range , representing substantial upside potential. However, downside risks remain, with a stop-loss near $5.72 to mitigate risk .
This idea combines technical indicators, moving averages, and volume considerations to outline a high-risk, high-reward trading opportunity. Investors should remain vigilant for confirmation signals before entering a position.
6/11/24 - $vtex - would consider in 5's, but patience best here6/11/24 - vrockstar - NYSE:VTEX - pretty familiar with this one from a past life. deciding to update my thinking for anyone that comes across this ticker w/ own POV's hopefully this helps:
have been sidelines on it for the last year-ish. the last Q defn brought a disappointment from the perspective of the revenue growth/ wins that created a bit of excitement in the prior Q's. here's what i'll say on valuation.
1) i genuinely think these guys have a really unique prop/ biz that's only second to $shop. that being said, NYSE:SHOP is the elephant in the room and scale begets scale as NASDAQ:BIGC learned the hard way. so growth DOES matter
2) so then what does growth get valued at if it's expected at 20% this year and profitability isn't relevant (to a large extent). the -ve to +ve does matter in an incremental-seeking market - but we're not there right now, all software/ecomm that's not delivering and or scaled is getting cut and "let's see later". i'd posit it's probably 2-4x depending on the biz.
3) if we say 3.5x that puts us (given the favorable balance sheet - which is a big plus) and no cash burn at about an EV of ~800 mm which is still a 20% haircut on the equity from here. while it matters how we get here (is it another Q, is it macro, is it consumer, is it geographical factor- e.g. Brazil-related) etc. it doesn't warrant necking out today.
conclusion/ how i'm playing it: it's not a "need" to own for me/ my book. i can own anything. so i set an alert under $6 (i'm not willing to pay 4-5x sales today for this) which is where it's at, still. and realistically i'd become more interested closer to that $5.5 level where we get that 20% discount and it trades closer to 3.5x and presumably we're further thru the cycle lows and coming out by that point. lmk if you have additional thoughts to add.
right now i think the only 3 names u can own in latam that are tech-ish are NYSE:NU , NASDAQ:DLO , NASDAQ:MELI and $glob. anything else requires more nuance on timing inflections/ valuation discretion.
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The VTEX in good handsThe VTEX digital commerce platform enables enterprises to rapidly explore new ways to sell and fulfill products and services with an array of customization .
VTEX long-term opportunity Large triangle, strong signals of a breaking switch of VTEX. This could be a potential change from 15.30 - 20-30 in price price.
