ES can go higher now to 5800.
C and X combo Next Y wave inside a 5 wave combo.
if price go below 5650. its sell.
WSP1! trade ideas
Trump is the new COVIDI guess no futures gap fill, ES should go oversold on the 3 hr Monday. Gonna wait to go long.
ES & NQ ShortFirst part is hour. Rejection off the top, point of control at 6088, Liquidity void and USDCHF showing Bullish. Running 3 accounts 1 NQ short each, small account 1 ES short.
GC ShortTaking GC Shorts as an additional hedge trade. Fib levels in video.
lets see what happens...
Long ESLong ES, explanation in video!
Fib Exhausted
harami pattern possible...
market open volume...
oh and that point held Tuesday
ES, Mar 20, 2025CME_MINI:ES1! swept its avg sweep area, pushed through daily open and retraced to it. I'm anticipating a move towards Daily Avg Expansion Area towards the end of the day targeting $5,665. Closure above 1h FVG would invalidate this idea.
the S hit the Flosing thi trendline is a problem or im not captain obvious
where bottom? well.
no one knows the future some people me included though trump would boom the market
some people thought
people think
i think we need to stop thinking and see whats infront of us.
fear gives us a lack of buyers (volume)
uncerteinty provides sellers (price drops)
macro economics provide both of these.
and rate cuts arent happening but im still balling.
i wont say my projections in case im right i dont want market makers to change their plans but i will be nice and post my chart.
lines are levels and sweep levels
volume profile is volume profile
rectangles are gaps
rsi is rsi
fibbos are fibbos
declining volume is declining volume
Which place is attractive to buy??
AMP Futures - Instant order placementIn this idea we will go over how the instant order placement feature works in Tradingview.
Indecision and balanceThe structure and the daily chart of the S&P 500 implies in decision and balance. Neither buyers or sellers are in control. The bias is for move to the upside. If a follow-through moved to the upside does not occur look for a sideways close on Friday.
Daily Trade Recap: Precision Entries and Exits EOD accountability report: +$828.75
Sleep: :check: Mood: 💯
Started the day very bearish because of the 195m sell signal but as once I saw the W pattern and Doji --> BFC, I decided to step back and watch.
C+ & B+ set up trades today
10:59 AM VXAlgo NQ 10M Sell Signal, (multiple confluence as well, Bia's resistance lvl, 10M sell signal, +trendline resistance)
12:15 PM breaking under 1min MOB & rejection.
1:09 PM VXAlgo ES 10M Buy signal, waited and brought at 5min MOB to 5720
Overview on S&P / 6C / 6E / Gold / SilverJust ran down a major overview on where I'm at in responding to a few messages. I left my last scenario mid December where I stated the S&P was overheated and was likely to come down, even if I didn't have a strong enough signal to go for a longer short on the market.
As I had said then, I was mostly interested in the 6E. I made a large chunk off buying the dip on the 6E and cashing out on trends, to include the launch off it recently had. I'm now done with the 6E for the moment.
My current focus is on 6C. The algorithm and math have taken a turn that the 6C is ready to rebound. I entered into it at just under .69, I did have to roll over into the newer contract, but even with the last couple down days, the math still supports a rebound. I almost cashed out today when it had a rough start and fell at .5%, but held through and we have mostly recovered for the day, leaving us with a fairly bearish candle pattern to support the ongoing uptrends pulling is higher.
When it comes to gold, we have multiple trend violations against the 1hr, 2hr, 3hr, 4hr, and 6hr of lower highs. I expect a downswing to correct these, as they are long overdue for some time now before we move higher. I do believe that Gold is destined for higher, just not yet. I haven't gotten any longer-term signals for gold, so I've mostly been shorting in swing trades to net just a couple thousand on this issue.
I am getting a signal on Silver that it is ready to launch. It is not a flawless signal to show it is ready to meet new highs, so I may watch it tomorrow, but ultimately, I may feel more comfortable jumping into silver over gold for a rebound instead of quick shorts. Also, silver has less margin, so it ties up less of my account.
That is where I sit, hope your trades go well, and remember your risk management.
S&P 500 Recovery: First Price Target Reached What’s Next?S&P 500 Update – Downside Target Hit
The first P&F count has been reached, raising the question of whether this is a true reversal. Market patterns often show a low forming at quarter-end followed by a retest in the new quarter.
Currently, the market is in recovery mode off the bottom. The key questions remain: Is this recovery sustainable, and where might it lead? Is this truly a reversal?
Having achieved the downside objectives, the market is now starting to build cause. The initial lift off the low is notable, but its timing at the end of the first quarter requires caution. There could still be a need for additional testing.
A common pattern in markets is the formation of two lows – one at the end of the old quarter and another in the new quarter – creating what appears as a low and a test.
If a significant market turn is developing with a potential uptrend in the second and third quarters, there will be ample time to position accordingly. The prudent approach now is to create a shopping list of potential investments and look for good ideas and market leadership.
This analysis is for educational purposes only and should not be considered investment advice.
ID: 2025 - 0062.28.2025
Trade #6 of 2025 executed. So simple, yet far from easy...
Trade entry at 168 DTE (days to expiration).
Trade construct is a PDS (put debit spread) at Delta 15 combined with a PCS (put credit spread) at Delta 15. Overlapping short strikes give it the "unbalanced" butterfly nomenclature.
Sizing and strike selection is designed to keep the risk/reward "AT EXPIRATION" to a 1:1 risk profile. This lets charm work it's magic (second order greek), while exploiting the fact that this is a non-directional bias. The process is a disciplined and systematic approach letting time decay evaporate the extrinsic time value from the short options until target profit is achieved.
IF target profit is not captured after 60 DIT (days in trade), then target is reduced by 50% for the next 30 days.
Happy Trading!
-kevin
Gamma Exposure Analysis SPY & VXX SPY Resistance at 570. The 570 level in SPY likely corresponds to a high gamma concentration for 0DTE (zero days to expiration) options. At this strike, market makers short gamma (i.e., net sellers of options) at this level would dynamically delta-hedge by selling SPY as the price approaches 570, creating selling pressure and resistance. Next resistance level 575.
For VXX , the 48 level likely represents a put-dominated gamma zone: If market makers are net long puts, they would buy VXX as prices decline toward 48 to hedge against further downside, creating support. Next support level 46.50
20 March 2025S&P moved lower from investors yesterday gains amid of recession fears and economic contraction due to trump economic policies. However, S&P may moved higher at the end of the day due to federal reserve held rates unchanged and lower jobless claims.
ES Premarket UpdateWell, I did mention the small open gap yesterday afternoon, lol.
Looks like Europe sold off and took the US futures with them, MFI is now OVERBOUGHT meaning more downside despite the open gap above. The market is breaking a lot of my usual rules, the only time the market left an open futures gap for an extended time was the initial COVID gap which stayed open for a year.
Looks like Trump is the new COVID, not playing the gap fill anymore, just playing 3 hr indicators now. Also, Powell did not say anything significant yesterday.
MES!/ES1! Day Trade Plan for 03/18/2025MES!/ES1! Day Trade Plan for 03/18/2025
📈5740. 5760
📉5680. 5660
Like and share for more daily ES levels 🤓📈📉🎯💰
*These levels are derived from comprehensive backtesting and research and a quantitative system demonstrating high accuracy. This statistical foundation suggests that price movements are likely to exceed initial estimates.*
ES UpdateWell, apparently you can't just rely on daily indicators and an open gap. All I did was lose money on premium burn with the calls I bought last week, but I added next week's XLF calls when the market opened and XLF went red for some stupid reason.
Wound up dumping everything near the daily peak when I regained lost profits, so at least I'm even now, lol. What I realized is that you gotta pay attention to the 3 hr indicators even at the bottom. You can see how it sold off Monday afternoon/night because RSI and MFI hit overbought, and we got the Powell pump because MFI hit oversold premarket today,
I don't have time to pay attention to the market all day because I have a job now, lol, so you guys will have to track MFI and RSI on your own. 3 hr chart, standard settings for RSI and MFI and make sure your time zone aligns with US east coast (NY), or else the 3 hr charts will look different.
There's also a small gap up aftermarket today that also needs to be filled. Probably more whipsaw, lol. At this point, I'm only trading if I see indicators go oversold or overbought. WIll post plots pre-market if I have time. Good luck.
A degree of comfortThe Fed laid out its forecasting for decreases in Fed funds rate through 2027. I think this brings a certain degree of comfort to the market that there is a roadmap to lower interest rates. The result was a positive movement in the S&P 500 daily chart. The expectation is for follow-through to the upside on Thursday but not a large move.
SP500 (E-mini Futures) - Decision TimeBigger Picture SP500 Futures Update - Decision Time
- Powell (FED) ruled out a recession in todays FOMC Press Conference (Bullish)
- Powell announced drastically slow down QT beginning next month (Extremely bullish for risk assets)
- The Asian and European stock market indices are still showing strength forming new ATHs week by week.
