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WSP1! trade ideas

Q1 Recap and What’s AheadThe first quarter of 2025 saw significant price movements in many different asset classes. Traders saw equity indices broadly selling off with the ES contract falling near 10% from the highs while Gold continued to push higher to all time high levels. There are many factors contributing to the price movement, including a shift in the administration in the U.S., geopolitical tensions globally, and critical tariff announcements looming. There are also questions about the Fed environment and the strategy that will be implemented this year to begin cutting interest rates. Looking at the CME Fed Watch Tool today, it seems the market is pricing another rate pause for the May meeting and a near 60% chance of rate cuts coming in June. There is a large slate of economic date coming out for the rest of the week that could add great volatility to this uncertain market, including: Tariff Announcement Initial Jobless Claims Nonfarm Payroll Unemployment Rate Average Hourly Earnings This morning, traders saw the ADP Nonfarm Employment Change come in higher than expected and the markets are having a mixed reaction. President Trump will be speaking at 3:00 P.M. Central Time to introduce the tariff plan and how it will be rolled out, adding a level of clarity for the market moving forward into Q2. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs tradingview.com/cme/ *CME Group futures are not suitable for all investors and involve the risk of loss. Copyright © 2023 CME Group Inc. **All examples in this report are hypothetical interpretations of situations and are used for explanation purposes only. The views in this report reflect solely those of the author and not necessarily those of CME Group or its affiliated institutions. This report and the information herein should not be considered investment advice or the results of actual market experience.
CME_MINI:ES1!
by CME_Group
S&P - Will we follow 2020/2021?The S&P has been trading in a rising pattern for over 700 days, similar to the rising pattern observed in 2020 and 2021. In that instance, the price of the S&P broke below the support trendline and lost all SMA support, while also making a lower low. This has not occurred since the start of the current pattern. Could a deeper correction follow? Blue line = 50-day MA Red line = 100-day MA Yellow line = 200-day MA Analysis of the 2020/2021 Price Action We can conclude the following five points: 1. The rising wedge lasted for nearly 700 days. 2. The price consistently made higher highs and higher lows. 3. The S&P found support on the SMAs and never broke below the 200-day MA. 4. After approximately 700 days, the S&P broke below the rising wedge, lost all key SMA support, and made a lower low. 5. During the retest of the rising wedge and key SMAs (which had turned into resistance), a bearish cross (50-day SMA below the 100-day SMA) occurred, leading to a downtrend. How Does the 2020/2021 Price Action Correlate to 2023/2024? We can conclude the following five points: 1. The rising wedge lasted for approximately 750 days. 2. The price continued making higher highs and higher lows. 3. The S&P found support on the SMAs and never broke below the 200-day SMA. 4. After around 750 days, the S&P broke below the rising wedge, lost all key SMA support, and made a lower low. 5. A bearish cross between the 50-day SMA and the 100-day SMA is currently forming. When we overlay the bar pattern of the 2021 bearish price action onto the current chart, it suggests that a revisit to 4,750 is possible. This level is both a technical support and the point where the S&P started its downtrend in 2021. Conclusion Will the S&P follow the 2021 price action, resulting in a sustained downtrend, or will it reclaim all lost SMA levels and continue its uptrend? The price action suggests that there is a real possibility of weakness in the coming months.
CME_MINI:ES1!
by Youriverse
7
ID: 2025 - 0073.18.2025 Trade #7 of 2025 executed. So simple, yet far from easy... Trade entry at 30 DTE (days to expiration). This trade has a little more hot sauce and fire built into it. Unbalanced butterfly, close to expiration, will adjust the wing widths as the market adjusts either up or down. Goal is to be out of this trade in under two weeks before GAMMA really begins kicking in. The reason I like going in closer to expiration after big market moves, is the volatility is better, and fills are quicker, and spreads are tighter. The downside of playing super long DTE strategies is that when the market gets spooked or turbulent, the bid/ask spreads become a mile wide. Happy Trading! -kevin
CME_MINI:ES1!
by Kevins
ES - continue with the UptrendOn ES , it's nice to see a strong buying reaction at the price of 5722. There's a significant accumulation of contracts in this area, indicating strong buyer interest. I believe that buyers who entered at this level will defend their long positions. If the price returns to this area, strong buyers will likely push the market up again. (FVG) - Fair Value GAP and high volume cluster are the main reasons for my decision to go long on this trade. Happy trading Dale
CME_MINI:ES1!
by Trader_Dale
ES/SPY Possible Enhancement On Idea.As per usually channel lines are nice but common price action includes big pushes past them and then reclaiming them. This provides great opportunities for big money to run the stops, scoop of the shares, paint a big wick and keep trucking. It's how the game is played and provides no real ability as to where to count on a bottom or to put stops. Non the less the channel lines provide an idea as to where to see signs of traction or of course a top for further bull traps or sell offs. Personally I think peak tariffs fears are near and at some point the market will accept them and move on.
CME_MINI:ES1!
by tbuckle
They Shut Down the AlgosYou can see in the chart that during the initial Feb/March drop that the algos were still running, and we'd see at least a small bounce when MFI/RSI got oversold, however you can see that they shut the algos down yesterday, MFI totally flatlined for 2 days which is something that did not happen on the initial drop. So basically, there's no point for me to plot 3 hr charts until they turn the algos back on. I will post when that happens. Made a bunch of mistakes this week, but managed to break even daytrading XLF puts twice today. XLF was lagging the market a bit which made it easier to trade.
CME_MINI:ES1!
by hungry_hippo
2
ES Melt upLook at the MFI, it's pegged. I guess we get a melt up, at least until tomorrow's PCE numbers. Maybe even into next Monday. Anyways, I woke up, called in sick, and re-entered my AAPL trade this morning, I figured with TSLA's bad news they'd have to pump AAPL instead to get the market green, and they did. Plus XLF gapped up too much, though I suppose I could have bought that too when it went red on the gap close. Gonna just hold the AAPL calls as my PCE trade for tomorrow morning. Expecting a slight kick up EOD because of PCE bets. Until then probably just a sideways whipsaw
CME_MINI:ES1!
by hungry_hippo
17
Spy PathI can see SPY moving this way—a potential relief rally off the unmitigated order block from September that caused the imbalance and the macro Break of Structure (BoS). We've already taken out some key sell-side liquidity at the Equal Lows from October/November (EQL), so there's no immediate need to keep chasing more sell-side liquidity. If an aggressive buyer steps in, I could see price pushing back up through the Bullish Order Block, retesting the Equal High (EQH) I marked earlier, which would tap into buy-side liquidity. From there, it could reach the bearish order block that caused the imbalance, triggering the Change of Character (CHoCH), and then reverse lower, as it looks we are now in bearish order flow for the timeframe.
CME_MINI:ES1!
by SPYDERMARKET
ES UpdateSo MFI hit oversold this morning as the gap filled, so I figured we'd get a bounce.... but it looks like hedge funds sold off every algo pump and MFI totally flatlined at the bottom. How do I know hedge funds were liquidating? Crap like FCEL went green because they close their short positions when they close their long positions. Yeah, I got a little stupid and lost some money today, I tried to warn my followers in my comments not to go long today, sure enough market sold off EOD. I think it's time to do chart pattern short plays. Will let you know if I see anything good.
CME_MINI:ES1!
by hungry_hippo
12
ES Update1) My apologies for getting the PCE release date wrong, it's Friday, not today. Still made money on my XLF calls plus AAPL also went up this morning. 2) There's a small open gap on ES, RTY, and YM from the one hour break after market close. It looks like it might fill overnight. Make sure you check tomorrow morning. 3) The gap below is still open, and it looks like 3hr MFI and RSI want to hit oversold tomorrow. 4) Sorry for not checking the news, I can barely even make trades on my phone while at work. Had I known today was auto tariff day, I would have played things differently. Personally, I think PCE numbers are a moo point (my Friends will get the joke) because auto tariffs will drive inflation up, but there's bound to be a bounce when MFI and RSI get oversold. If I decide to go long tomorrow, it'll probably just be a handful of XLF calls again. XLF will probably dip tomorrow because higher auto prices means fewer auto loans and higher inflation this summer. Market will still go up Friday if indicators get oversold, so it's just a quick play, not an investment. At this point, all I can recommend is that you keep an eye on the 3 hr indicators, seems to be working well. Also, XLF and AAPL completed intraday patterns from yesterday, so there is that too.
CME_MINI:ES1!
by hungry_hippo
9
S&P 500 Futures Potential Short OpportunitiesThe S&P 500 futures index has retraced approximately half its previous losses from a steep sell-off that began at 6148. After rejection at 5818, prices now hover precariously above critical Support at 5732. Immediate Support Test: Failure at 5732 would trigger additional bearish pressure toward the next support levels at 5649 and 5566. Bullish Reversal Potential: Only a decisive close above 5818 would suggest a more constructive outlook, which currently appears improbable amid elevated VIX levels.
CME_MINI:ES1!Short
by Rotuma
ES, Q2 25 - Path to RecoveryCME_MINI:ES1! swept the major liquidity resting below the Sep 24 low and is already starting to show signs of a reversal. Price could just keep pushing higher, but with a Volume Imbalance, IFVG, and Wickless Candle all lining up in the same zone, it’s a high-probability area for a retracement before any continuation. From there, I’m expecting a brief accumulation around the weekly FVG, which also aligns with the equilibrium (50%) of this entire leg down. After that, I’m looking for a break through the weekly FVG, a retracement back into it, then a move higher into the Daily FVG. Another small retracement from there and finally, a push up into the Feb 25 High. A strong reversal from the weekly FVG would invalidate this scenario and could potentially slow down the recovery.
CME_MINI:ES1!Long
by dekatrades
1
Daily Trade Recap based on VX Algo SystemEOD accountability report: +$790 Sleep: Great Overall health: :check: Overall pretty decent trading day, spotted long term sell signals on market across the board this morning pre market so I was expecting thing to be bearish and drop. It played out as expected and helped with the trades today as thing went according to plan most of the time. I did expect a V shape recovery at some point but that didnt happen. Daily Trade Recap based on VX Algo System 10:36 AM VXAlgo NQ 10M Buy Signal,( didn't work that well) 1:30PM 10min MOB bounce :check: 2:09 PM VXAlgo ES 10M Buy signal + 10min MOB (Double Signal) :check: 3:36 PM VXAlgo NQ 48M Buy Signal :check:
CME_MINI:ES1!Short
by WallSt007
2
ES Futures Weekly Trade Plan & Navigating Turbulent Waters CME_MINI:ES1! Macro Analogy The current market landscape and macroeconomic environment can be compared to the dynamics of "sticks and carrots." The market is largely headline-driven, responding to the shifting expectations surrounding the Federal Reserve's stance, political events (such as the ongoing influence of the Trump administration), and sidelined investors who are waiting for a clearer signal on where to allocate capital. Looking at the market action, the low on March 13th, 2025, could mark a point of sector reallocation. Specifically, the Russell 2000 index is currently leading, with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq trailing behind. This suggests a shift in investor sentiment from large-cap stocks to smaller, potentially more dynamic sectors. In the backdrop, Federal Reserve speakers scheduled throughout the week may help clarify their position on the evolving macroeconomic situation, notably the persistent risk of stagflation. The challenge for central banks is becoming increasingly apparent: balancing rising inflation, increasing unemployment, and slowing growth while striving to meet their dual mandate of price stability and maximum employment. These pressures are intensifying the difficulty of effective policymaking. If we liken the US administration to a ship navigating through turbulent waters, the Federal Reserve could be seen as a submarine working behind the scenes to stabilize and support the administration. Chair Jerome Powell, at the controls, is leveraging all available tools to ensure financial stability. Meanwhile, at the helm of the ship is the US President, whose decisions and actions impact the broader economic environment, either calming or exacerbating the turbulence. The new adventures of the Gulf of America have entered uncharted territory. In this context, last week's actions, slowing the pace of Quantitative Tightening (QT)served as the "carrot," aimed at cushioning the economic pain despite worsening economic forecasts. However, the message that FED sounded was that, due to uncertainty, our forecasts are subject to change. Take them with a pinch of salt. ES Futures Big Picture: The ES futures market is currently testing key resistance levels, and this zone will serve as a critical inflection point for both bulls and bears. The next steps will likely hinge on the clarity emerging from both macro events and Fed commentary. Key Levels to Watch: • Yearly Open 2025: 6001.25 • Key LIS (Last Important Support/Resistance): 5850–5860 • Low Volume Node (LVN): 5770–5760 • Neutral Zone: 5705–5720 • Key Support Mid-Range 2024: 5626.50 • 2024-YTD mCVAL (Market Composite Value): 5505.25 • 2022 CVAH (Composite Value at High): 5341 Scenario 1: Rejection at Key Resistance In this scenario, we expect rejection at the key LIS levels, with further consolidation below the 5850–5860 range before the April 2nd reciprocal tariff deadline. This could lead to a retracement back toward the LVN area (5770–5760) and a potential drop to the neutral zone around 5705–5720. Scenario 2: Market Participants Expecting Less Severe Tariffs Should market participants anticipate less severe reciprocal tariffs than initially planned, but remain uncertain about the broader macroeconomic picture, we could see the price push above the key LIS levels. This would likely result in a consolidation phase until more clarity emerges, with the market continuing to trade in a volatile range above key LIS.
CME_MINI:ES1!
by EdgeClear