Sideways move is expectedGoing into the shortened trading session in the S&P 500 for Thursday a sideways move is expected. High volatility is not expected due to a lack of scheduled fundamental information.
WSP1! trade ideas
ES Trendline SupportDecent little sell off this morning, ES coming into trendline support, important for bulls to hold it here. If we bounce I'll look for a move back up to the trendline above for a potential breakout.
If it breaks below and can't hold 6k, I would definitely avoid longs until around 5950 at least.
ES Morning update Nov27thThe steady climb persists in ES. As posted yesterday breakout above 6002 would push us higher with 6027, 6036, and 6046 as targets. We hit 6046 exactly.
As of now: 6026=support (already tested once). Holds keep 6038, 6044 in play. Breakout potential to 6073 above. If 6026 fails, watch for dips to 6017, then 6002.
ES PRice action Review for Tuesday 11-26 and WEdnesday OVernightGoing Over Tuesdays RTH Price action and the Overnight Session. looking for clues as to what the market is telling us and how we could have traded better. Pain + Reflection = Growth. No A+ trade setup today no Trades.
S&P potential long when new york market opensas the bullish daily bias show us, we can see some liq to the downside that could be taken . after that we could react at the 70-80 % fib level , which is as well at the 1h Order Block . that would give us nice confirmation and we could take a trade if we get a good setup to that, the main thing is that we are bullish and that we want to get higher. but unfortunately everything can happen and we are not forcing trades. Risk 1-3 %
Es Bullish after retracement to discountI'm looking for a return to the equilibrium of the previous Day's range or below it then for price to reach for the previous Day's high after 9:30am
Do bulls really want to be long the S&P 500 ahead of a breakout?S&P 500 future are tantalisingly close to a record high. So close in fact, it would be rude not to print one. Yet I am skeptical it will simply hold on to (and extend) any such gains without at least a shakeout first, and bulls may be better to wait for a dip. Comparing the S&P 500 to Dow Jones and Nasdaq 100 futures, I explain why.
MS.
S&P 500 futures: Bulls eye breakout beyond record highsS&P 500 futures have been marching higher for more than a week, attracting buying on dips towards uptrend support. With RSI (14) and MACD confirming the bullish price action, the path of least resistance looks higher, putting a retest of 6053.25 on the radar.
With the bias to buy dips near-term, there are two setups available: the first would be to wait for a break above 6053.25. If it were to hold beyond the ultra-short term, you could initiate with a tight stop beneath for protection. Alternatively, if we were to see another retest of uptrend support, longs could be established above it with a stop beneath for protection.
Some traders use extension measures to assess potential targets when trading at record high, but I’m more simplistic; round numbers, such as 6100 using this example, are one option. Another would be to wait for an obvious topping signal from either a single or multiple candle pattern. When one comes along, bail. Otherwise, let it ride.
If the price were to break and close beneath the uptrend, the bullish bias would be invalidated.
Good luck!
DS.
Positive closes expected for WednesdayWith the bounce from the lows to new highs in the S&P 500 daily chart, it implies buyers have returned and follow-through would be expected for Wednesday's action.
Es Morning Update Nov 26thThis week has revolved around one key level: 5988, the new money magnet. Yesterday, it held as support, sparking a 30-point rally before we got a flush. However, a failed breakdown reclaimed the level overnight.
As of now: Watch for 6026 next, with 6038 beyond. Supports are 6009 (weak) and 5988-93.
ES Overnight Price Action REview 11-26-24Going over the ES price Action overnight and looking for clues as to what the market is telling us. coming up with a plan for the day and reflecting on our trades.
ES - Where to Join into the TrainThese two blue boxes are also very suitable for working with receivers.
Instead of getting lost in the low time interval, transactions can be taken by looking at the reactions when the price reaches these levels.
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Daily Leading Indicators looking to turnaround PReviouslyly posted about the Bearish outlook for the Weekly :Leading Indicators... now it appears that Monday is giving the Daily Leading Indicators a new outlook.
A possible Bullish turnaround...
Breakdowns and Breakouts observed.
ES Support BreakFutures are moving lower after Trump's post about tariffs, I don't think this news is significant, but we could move down tomorrow on technicals alone. Currently trading below today's low of day, we had a pretty big rejection this morning and couldn't hold above 6k or 5990. If we do not reclaim 6k overnight or shortly after open tomorrow, bulls may be in trouble.
Here are some potential downside paths. We have trendline support below followed by horizontal support around 5954. A break below 5954 could cause a quick flush down to around 5900 - 5880.
Transition to selling?The S&P 500 daily structure for Monday was balance between the buyers and sellers. Asia session is weaker and it does imply follow-through to the downside. However, I am not looking for dramatic move lower. Also, be aware of the possibility of a bounce if indeed we do move lower.
ES Price Action rEview 11-25-24 RTHGoing over the RTH ES session looking back for clues the market left for us from sunday night and how we should have seen price action. Pain + Reflection = Growth I ask God for strength and Wisdom and he gives me ES to Master. Thank you God for answering my prayers daily.
SPY Possible TopChart is S&P 500 Futures with money supply factored in. Double top forming at key level of supply. Only one more level higher that would be ultimate supply.
Regardless, prepare yourself for bear market of 2025.
Morning Session Review ES RTH 11-25-24Going over the Morning RTH price action looking for clues the market was leaving us and now putting together a plan for End of Day. no A+ setups no trades. we are risk managers first and foremost.
Es/SPX Morning Update Nov25thBuyers let patience pay off. Last week (and the week before) had formed a 2-week bull flag with 5980 resistance. Mentioned that if 6002 clears if could give us momentum to 6017. Buyers gapped up over night and now we are sitting exact at 6017.
As of now: Let runners ride if you have them. 6009 (weak) and 6002 are supports. Holding above keeps 6027-32, 6046+ in play. A failure at 6002 could lead to a gap fill lower.
ES Overnight Price Action REview 11-25-24 MondayGoing over the Futures Open from Sunday to now looking for clues the market is leaving us and coming up with a plan for today. always remember we are risk managers but this week is very bullish. good luck today and make sure you do all your work.
SP500**SP500:**
This week's forecast is for the price to rise slightly to the area between 6011.75 and 6046.25.
#202447 - priceactiontds - weekly update - sp500 e-mini futuresGood Evening and I hope you are well.
tl;dr
sp500 e-mini futures: Bullish. 5 consecutive days where bears tried and bulls closed at the highs. Buy signals do not get better than this. Above 6000 we see 6050 and most likely an acceleration up to new highs. 6100 and 6150 the obvious next targets. Bears need a daily close below 5850 and would still have a bigger bull trend line to break there so the downside is likely limited.
Quote from last week:
comment: 50% retracement hit and market closed above it on Friday. My preferred path for next week is a huge bull reversal higher. Is this likely after 2 strong bear days? No it’s not, so I have to wait for either side to show a clear new direction or continuation. If this goes to 5800 without me, so be it. I think after such a big rally with follow through buying above 6000, a retracement to 50% is a buy and not a sell.
comment : Bullish bias I had, bullish it was. Market looks like it wants up bad. Every dip is bought heavily on increasing volume. Time is now to get above 6100 or we won’t get it at all. Market is beyond overvalued, overbought and the poor late bulls are just arriving. Guess who will be left holding the bags again.
current market cycle: Bull trend
key levels : 5850 - 6150 (maybe even 6200)
bull case: Last hurrah. 6100 is my first target but can absolutely go beyond 6200. Anything below 5800 would be the end of this. I don’t feel the need to explain this further. The chart is crystal clear. I have written about this blow-off top for many weeks. Just don’t forget to take profits before this turns badly. I do think the odds of this closing 2024 below 6000 are low but can absolutely happen. These bullish profits since August are outrageous and once the run for the exits begins, it will be ruthless.
Invalidation is below 5800.
bear case: Bears gave up on Friday. If they can’t get below 5900 on Monday, we will see a meltup. No bear will come around big time before 6050 and even then I think they will let the bulls show signs of exhaustion before they be aggressive.
Invalidation is above 5800.
outlook last week:
short term: I want to join the bulls again. Need strong confirmation first though. Still no interest in selling as of now.
→ Last Sunday we traded 5896 and now we are at 5987. Perfect outlook. Hope you made some.
short term: Bullish all the way. If market closes below 5900 I would turn neutral and daily close below 5800 would probably be the end of my bullish thesis and I turn bear.
medium-long term - Update from 2024-11-24: 6100+ are my last targets for the bulls before this bubble begins to pop or at least deflate.
current swing trade: None
chart update: Added potential bullish 5-wave series.
NQ! longsLooking to Take NQ longs Into the 6018.25 Zone it’s Rejecting off a Daily IFVG. the move up is more possible Due to Several Equal Highs and Equal Opens which Means Liquidity = Resting Stops and Orders
