ES RTH OVernight Price action REview 10-2-24Going over Yesterdays RTH ES and overnight ES price Action reflecting on how we could have traded better yesterday and the trading plan for today and what the overnight session was telling us.
WSP1! trade ideas
Combined US Index - Bullish flip overdone. Retracement now... As previously marked out, the bullish flip was done, and is pretty overdone. Yesterday's close sealed it for a retracement, and technicals (MACD and VolDiv) support that view.
should be seeing a downdraft to the last low visit (yellow ellipse).
Possible stall at blue ellipse, but look for further breakdown.
Exceeding the last low to close below is Bearish.
Let us see...
UncertaintyThe structure in the S&P 500 implies uncertainty about market direction. It is approaching levels that we found buyers in the past. So, if you're on the short side of this market be careful here and you want confirmation to the downside on Tuesday with a weaker close.
2024-10-01 - priceactiontds - daily update - sp500Good Evening and I hope you are well.
tl;dr
Indexes - Bears tried and sold off for decent points but the close was not bearish enough to hurt the bulls or make them nervous. Bears are only able to get spike selling going but no or bad follow through. Neutral going into tomorrow since most daily bear bars have big tails below them. Bulls are still in BTFD mode and we could easily test the highs again.
sp500 e-mini futures
bear case: Bears Need a lower low below the previous daily bar. Once they start getting that and make the market go sideways instead of up, they can start talking. Good for them is, that we barely move higher but we sure as shit are not moving lower either. Once bulls stop buying the highs, a decent pullback can easily get us to the daily ema down to 5730.
From my weekly update
comment: I promised an early breakout this week and we got one. Bears sold off decently today but the close was not strong enough. We almost touched the daily 20ema at 5725 and it’s more likely it will produce another pullback than breaking on the first or second try after such a strong rally the past 3 weeks.
current market cycle: trading range (bull wedge - minor bull wedge broke and we have the bigger one left)
key levels: 5700 - 5800
bull case : Bulls want to keep the market two sided and stay above 5700. They are still in BTFD mode and happily bought the first touch of the daily 20ema for 3 weeks. Their next target is to trade above the sell spike at 5815 because most bears will have their stop around that area.
Invalidation is below 5700.
bear case: Bears either keep it below 5780 or many will give up and will only try around 5800 again. The 50% pullback from today is around 5772 and bears stepped in again around that price. If bears can keep the 1h 20ema resistance, it would help their case a lot but they only have confirmation below 5733 and today they only got rejected big time below 5750. The selling was certainly strong enough to expect a second leg and a measured move could get us to 5670ish and near the lower bull wedge trend line.
Invalidation is above 5785.
short term: Neutral for now. I hope for a second leg but the 1h bars today were not good for the bears.
medium-long term - Update from 2024-09-01: Very much like my outlook in dax. Trading range on the daily chart and we are at the highs. We could make higher ones or not. Does not matter much. I expect 5000 to be hit again in 2024.
current swing trade: Nope
trade of the day: US open was almost the high tick of the day. Happens not that often. Selling around the open was strong enough but most of the time you get an opening reversal. So overall very trick to sell this today while the spike was happening. Buying 5740 was profitable 4 times and the easier trade.
OHLC Statistical Mapping Bread & Butter Short ModelWhen BEARISH
Entry: -Manipulation
Stop-Loss: Above +Distribution
Take Profit: -Distribution
When price hits +Manipulation go breakeven.
Top 5 Weekly Trade Ideas #1 - ES Ascending Wedge BreakES has been forming an ascending wedge for about 2 weeks and it closed below last week. I wouldn't say it's a confirmed break yet, we'll have to see where we're at tomorrow morning, but if it remains below I'd be looking for shorts targeting ~5730 and then demand near 5700.
This is a shorter term pattern, but it may be good for 50 points or more. If ES has reclaimed this trendline by open tomorrow I'd consider it invalid. If we stay below, the ideal entry would be right on the trendline retest with a stop above, but it may not work out that well so I like puts with a few weeks of time to ride this down to 5700 as long as it never reclaims 5800 or the wedge.
ES (SP500) OCTOBER TARGET AND BIASI’m looking for some downside on ES. Ideally looking for shorts to setup within the context and framework of the models I use to engage with price. The first target and thesis I have provided below.
Divergence at the highs leading into a new month. Of course this is a counter tide trade where by ultimately NQ is lagging ES and YM so the safer bet is always to predict NQ is to re-align and thus trader higher. But for now I like the Risk:Reward in speculating from a technical perspective a move lower is on the table for ES.
Area to trade through is the Green zone highlighted where I would not be surprised to see it respected for a short period of time and where buys will seek to try regain September open just above.
See the following link for a better for view of my analysis idea.
open.substack.com
S&P500: Upward Potential!We still give the S&P more room and time to complete its turquoise wave B, which should primarily peak below the resistance at 5946 points. If the index breaches this level, we will have to assume that the larger green wave alt.(4) has already bottomed out. We consider this alternative scenario 38% likely. However, we primarily expect the S&P to fall into our green Target Zone (coordinates: 5110 – 4921 points) after reaching the upcoming top of wave B. This range is where the regular green wave (4) should be completed. Thereafter, we expect the upward movement to continue, with wave (5) finally breaking above 5946 points.
ES levels and targets Oct 1st5773 has been the key level to watch in ES. We dropped below it yesterday, printed a failed breakdown, and reclaiming 5773 rallied us toward the 8523 target
As of now: 5799 to 5820 is a chop zone. Holding it opens the door for 5828 and 5835-40 as next upside targets. If 5799 breaks, 5781 next down, which bulls will really need to defend.
ES Overnight Price Action Review 10-1-24Going over the Price Action Overnight ES looking for clues as to what the market is telling us it wants to do. we are risk managers. Where are the A+ Trades for today??
ES Price Action Review RTH 9-30-24Going over the RTH price Action ES reflecting back on day and looking for the clues the market left as to what it wanted to do. focus on Price Action. eliminate everything else. news/wars/planets/jupiter/alignment of Uranus to Mercury. focus.
Skittish marketThe S&P 500 market structure implies a market that is skittish in terms of direction. Although buyers did return to the market on Monday will that jolts report on Tuesday provide the incentive to drive prices higher?
Powell Speaks ES/SPY Weekly Analysis of Oct 4Today because I knew Powell was speaking I decided to hold off on my analysis until this afternoon. From the weekly timeframe perspective, it looks like ES and SPY would rather continue to run up. But as we zoom in closer to the daily chart we also take note of the support level gap below. As we ended last week’s trading session the candlesticks began to exhaust and form a flag pattern (order block) or continuation pattern. Not knowing if Powell speaking today would drop ES/SPY in that gap I betted on a short term put as we usually have an impulse reaction of fear on the days that Powell is speaking! Powell can also quickly turn the market around depending on his responses to questions from the audience at these public appearances.
Now by analyzing the 15 min chart, we quickly see how price dropped at first when Powell began speaking (2:15PM EST candlestick) immediately turned back around to head up (2:30PM EST candlestick), once it was confirmed we were likely to receive more interest rate cuts in the near future.
By zooming back out and looking at the 2HR chart, we see that the closing candle of the day ran up so much, to where it appears that the next candle may break out the top and create another all time high.
As we look forward to the week ahead, we are anticipating the following inflation data reports to be released:
Tuesday Oct 1 - ISM Manufacturing PMI & JOLTS Job Openings
Wednesday Oct 2 - ADP Non-Farm Employment Change
Thursday Oct 3 - Unemployment Claims & ISM Services PMI
Friday Oct 4 - Average Hourly Earnings, Non-Farm Employment Change, & Unemployment Rate
With these reports and the anticipation for a lower Federal Fund Rate, we are likely to see a lot volatile action, like we just saw today! Trade safe this week!
OHLC Statistical Mapping Bread & ButterEntry: -Manipulation
SL: above protected high
TP: -Distribtuion
ES levels and targets sept 30thLast week ES was stuck in a chop range between 5823-30 and 5773. On Friday, I was eyeing a rally to resistance, and we hit it. Now back at support, but it’s very weak now and well-tested.
As of now: Bulls need to react fast and recover 5783 for one last rally attempt in my opinion. If 5773 fails, 5763 and 5754 next down.
ES Overnight Price Action REview 9-30-24Going over the price action from Sunday Night. looking for clues as to what the market wants to do. we're cautious and only going to take A+ trades today. No A+ setups no trades for us. We ARe Risk Managers first and foremost.
SP500**SP500:**
New all-time high at 5828.50.
This week's forecast is that the price will continue to rise.
S&P 500 (ESZ2024) - Hit 'n' MissAwaiting more data to make a accurate decision on the next draw on liquidity
#202440 - priceactiontds - weekly update - sp500 e-miniGood Evening and I hope you are well.
tl;dr
sp500: The big bull trend line from 2022-01 + 2022-07 is valid so far and forms a broad bull channel with the April + August low. We are at the top and until bulls can not break strongly above 5800, that price is resistance. Bears not doing enough, so I am neutral until one side gains momentum. Also continues inside nested bull wedges and the smallest will break out next week.
Quote from last week:
comment: Bears did absolutely nothing last week except selling highs. Not a single daily bar below the previous one. Very strong buying with resulted in an obvious new ath on Thursday. Are bulls done or will we get hit 5800? Most likely we will hit it because of the obvious liquidity grab (stop running) above it.
comment: Second week in a row where bears could not get a single daily bar below the previous daily low. Small pullback bull trend where we slowly grind higher. We are again at the highs of multiple patterns and betting on a breakout is a bad trade. You can literally buy any pullback and make money and until this changes, buy them. Just make sure to have tight stops at the highs.
current market cycle: nested bull wedges
key levels: 5750 - 5850
bull case: Not much different to last week, since we are only 30 points higher. Bulls need a very strong daily bar above 5840 to make more traders believe in a breakout above. For now it’s very low probability they get it. Bulls are in full BTFD mode on every small dip and you should join them until they start making lower lows.
Invalidation is below 5770.
bear case: Bears Need a lower low below the previous daily bar. Once they start getting that and make the market go sideways instead of up, they can start talking. Good for them is, that we barely move higher but we sure as s*** are not moving lower either. Once bulls stop buying the highs, a decent pullback can easily get us to the daily ema down to 5730.
Invalidation is above 5840.
outlook last week:
short term : Neutral around 5760. No interest in buying besides small long scalps on the 5m or lower tf for 5800. Market is contracting in a tight range, best not to do anything and wait for a clear breakout.
→ Last Sunday we traded 5762 and now we are at 5791. Neutral was very good since we barely moved. Not doing anything here is also very decent.
short term: Neutral. Next breakout will come soon. I expect Monday/Tuesday since the small bull wedge has no more room to go and we are at the upper bull trend line for the bigger one. I am not a fortune teller so I don’t know which side it will break out to. You don’t have a magic mirror either so just be prepared for the breakout and wait for it to happen. You never ever want to be the first in a trade. The odds are so stacked against you in the long run, you can not make a living being the first as a retail trader.
medium-long term - Update from 2024-09-22: Very much like my outlook in dax. Trading range on the daily chart and we are at the highs. We could make higher ones or not. Does not matter much. I expect at least 5300 to be hit again in 2024.
current swing trade: None
chart update: None
#ES_F 9.29 - 10.04.24 Distribution Continues ?Last Week :
Last week market opened and failed to get under VAH during the Globex session, we needed that to see more weakness from previous week. Instead we push back inside the Edge and started balancing above most of the supply which brough stability. We got a mid week Globex stop run into next unexplored Value which couldn't hold when Volume came in closer to RTH and it flushed back towards the Edge where we balanced above into the week end.
This Week :
Friday finished with a break back inside the Edge with a few days of Supply above. Sellers are at and above the Edge, holding under 5810s puts us in 5790 - 40s Range which with Supply above could give us fills back Inside/Under the Edge.
Needs to be holding above Edge and 5810 areas for a change and acceptance in 5790 - 5830s Range.
Lack luster closeThe inside day on Friday in the S&P 500 creates a lack luster close going into the weekend. It does not demonstrate the confidence that you would want to see on a Friday. My expectation for Monday is the continuation of a sideways market.
The overnight gap up on $SPYThe majority of the move in AMEX:SPY since 1993 has been in the overnight session.
In a trending bull market, and making new highs, this gap trade becomes more common.
But it doesn’t happen every day
We bought the close on Friday, looking to close out early near the open on Monday
Theres countless papers on this edge, heres one about the overnight drift
papers.ssrn.com
