S&P Analysis (Long/Short) PRE NFP | Recession Coming?The SPX like many other equities has been hit by risk off sentiment following concerning data.
Anything further could spur more negative bias on equities and bring them down.
WSP1! trade ideas
ES HEADING INTO NFPWe are fast approaching the previous NFP data point (whilst NQ sits below its previous NFP already). As I said on the NFP analysis the majority are anticipating a melt up on NFP. Which does make sense to squeeze the shorts this week but I still see us trading lower to atleast take the close proximity liquidity at the low and even trade below the previous NFP data point. The CLM level is critical. This is a level I have developed after 8 years in this game. I have a system around them which over a large number of trades is at the moment running at 63% win rate ! So for now I'm certainly utilising those levels, here I have just marked in 1 of several.
Stay safe on NFP.
Namaste!
Yes going lower it's about 12 midnight.... I misstated it in the video.. I think the Market's going lower even though it's at a support level because the market had already had a high and it's a number of weeks later and the market could not retest the high and now the market looks like it's going to break lower and the reward is about 100 points maybe more. I don't quite have a classic 2 bar reversal and... so I am jumping the gun a lit.bability that the market will trade lower. if it works it's not really an eloquent trade and if it goes higher and stops me out that's not eloquent either but you generally won't go broke with small stops as long as you can make decent Returns on the trades that you do take. I talked about time as a consideration for taking a trade... I started out my training like that many years ago.... but I found that it was a futile and frustrating way to look at the market and I have almost completely stopped trying to factor in time. if you draw oblique lines on a chart that's associated with time,,,, if you draw a horizontal support resistance line that has nothing. to do with time...which is a good thing for me. an oscillator by definition deals with time.... and my interpretation of an oscillator is unreliable because of that so I never used them. but it's okay to look at a chart that fails to make new highs over a substantial. Of time and that's what I tried doing here.
ES Short TargetI'm expecting a bearish reaction to NFP tomorrow, but we'll see. Not gonna bother trying to predict that, but I will react to it. ES held around 5500 today and has demand from ~5486-5471. If we end up selling off below 5471 tomorrow, 5440 is the first target after that and eventually down to the trendline below.
That may be around 5350 depending on when it hits. We may get a bounce around 5440, which could lead to a retest of the demand near 5486, it should flip to supply if broken below. If we hold 5500 and reclaim the trendline above, I'd be looking for longs on a retest. VX will be an important thing to monitor as well.
ES Price ACtion Review Day Session 9-5-24Going over the DAy Session Price Action ES looking for clues as to how we could have traded better and how we're positioning for the NFP in the morning. No A+ setup no trades for us. keeping our mental capital intact for over the weekend where we'll do a lot of reflection and grading of trades. dont be lazy.
S&p 5400 coming Ai bubble popping as we speak 9/5 2024 NVDA books reflect sales to companies that now are under scrutiny geopolitics hot oil choppy avgo missed earnings rate cut drama the cooks at the BLS continue to chef it up with wild swings in reports and revisions all with the last US election in the rear view mirror
Positioning before the Friday numbersThe price movement in the S&P 500 over the last two days indicate a market positioning itself before the labor numbers on Friday. Structurally it is somewhat of a neutral position. I think there is nothing unusual in the reports I'm looking for an up close for Friday.
SPX ES Futures - Clearer view for Wave 4?Greetings!
SPX is much clearer and more constructive than NASDAQ in my opinion. Keeping this short and sweet. Current bias is this drawdown is exactly what everyone expected and wanted. Currently leaning bullish for the time being while being hedged in the event NFP tomorrow causes a major market downturn.
KEY level is below 5360, but I believe the more important levels are on that 38.2% and 50% internal retracement for the wave 4 at 5475 and 5420 (roughly).
NFP tomorrow, I expect we will probably see a push down initially followed by a rebound. Market was very choppy today (see my NASDAQ update for more details on that), but I think we're going to find a resolution soon where we can get more directional trades.
Happy hunting!
My Full ES/SPX Plan for Tmmr Sept. 6thPlan for Friday: **Supports:** 5512, 5502, 5494 (major), 5482 (major), 5476, 5474 (major), 5462, 5455 (major), 5450, 5445 (major), 5438 (major), 5428, 5423, 5414 (major).
**Levels to Bid:**
- I am still holding my 10% long runner from the **5493** knife carch idea that played out this afternoon. I have added long exposure around **5513**, risking 25% of today’s profits.
- We are currently in a new chop range between **5493 and 5554**, with **5519** acting as a key middle point. This has been tested 14 times since yesterday, so it’s no longer fresh but still worth watching for failed breakdowns as always.
- **5494** is next major support below, though it’s risky to buy directly after today’s test, especially with the NFP report coming tomorrow morning. Ideally, I'd like to see it flush and recover, perhaps testing **5482** or **5474** before reclaiming for a safer entry.
- Below **5492**, I consider this "knife catch mode," meaning supports will likely fail, so I’d be careful with longs, snd treat with smaller size than normal . However, **5455** and **5438** are key levels to watch for buy reactions if price starts flushing down aggressively.
**Resistances:** 5519 (major), 5524, 5528-30 (major), 5537, 5543, 5554 (major), 5560, 5566, 5574, 5577, 5582-86 (major), 5593, 5598, 5605 (major).
- With NFP tomorrow, we could see a violent rally, and I am not interested in shorting strength in ES. For those looking to short, **5582-86** is a logical spot, where we broke down earlier this week and have yet to backtest.
**Buyers Case Tomorrow:**
- Currently, ES has an active failed breakdown present. The key is for **5492** to hold, allowing buyers to defend this level and potentially reclaim **5519**.
- The path forward for buyers would then be targeting **5528-30**, **5554**, and eventually **5582-86** for a dip and push toward **5630**.
**Sellers Case Tomorrow:**
- Begins with the failure of **5493**. As i mentioned often though, breakdown trades below this a support are tricky, advanced setups, as most breakdowns trap (80% fail), and these are low-win-rate, high-risk/reward trades. So keep that in mind. Properly reading volume is the key to these type of trades.
- Generally, I’d want to see 5493 tested/one more failed breakdown of the zone (ideally down to 5483 that recovers). After this, I’d consider short perhaps 5486. Level to level profit takes, as always, but we likely get down to 5455.
In general, We have gone nowhere for two days. My general lean is that 5493 and 5519 remain critical levels. As long as we can keep defending 5493, ES is still in relief bounce/squeeze mode. This would work us up the levels to 5528-30, 5554, then on to 5582-86. If 5492 fails, bulls dropped the ball on this and we need to take another leg down.
SP500 Analysis 9/5/24Price has broken lows in Asia session. Looking for reaction to previous low. Bears are in market and news is on the way!!.. Possible continues to downside or push to the upside..
Good Luck trading.
Risk Mngt#1
ES levels and targets sept 5thYesterday, 5519 was a key support in ES, and I called for a rally off that level to 5554+. We tested and held it an incredible nine times yesterday alone.
Plan today: No changes. 5519 remains support, though it’s weaker now. Buyers holding it keeps 5543, 5552, and 5578+ in play. If 5519 fails, we sell to 5502 and 5492.
Combined US Indexes - Warning Trend Change to DOWNFrom the last post, there was a Gap closure and breakout... well, almost. What happened was a stall after the gap closure. This is the first indication that something is not right and a strong resistance is in the way.
After more than a week, a decisive down candle wiped out two prior days of bullish candles, and reopened the earlier gap. This by itself is very bearish... first on the candlestick pattern, and next on the reopening of the gap.
MACD have crossed under the signal line, in support of the bearish undertone.
Now, we wait for a full reopening of the gap, meaning a further breakdown of the supports.
By simple projection, the down wave from mid July to August (blue arrow) is projected from the last lower high in mid-August.
This brings the target to mid-September, at an old critical support level of 780.
Oddly enough, am expecting this to happen by the end of next week.
ES OverNight Price ACtion Review 9-5-24Going over the price action OverNight ES looking for clues as to what the market is telling us. have ADP and NFP report tomorrow. preparing for the big event.
ES SHORT - WYCKOFF DISTRBUTION a retest have been made, expecting downtrend continuation with market open targeting 5490-5480 area.
Look on the provided example from Wyckoff and current structure
Sideways move expectedThe expectation for Thursday's movement in the S&P 500 is a sideways move because of the loss of momentum to the downside and the balance of Wednesday's movement. Fundamentals can always create an increase in volatility but the main focus now is on Friday labor numbers.
ES running out of steamBulls are running out of steam. There is no buying volume and it looks like we will head down at least to the 200 ema (blue) moving forward. Interestingly, we are right at yearly R2. Watch out below.
ES Price Action Review day Session 9-4-24Going over ES price action for the regular trading hours. looking back on how we could have traded it better and how to position for the next day.
2024-09-04 - priceactiontds - short daily update - sp500Good Evening and I hope you are well.
tl;dr
Indexes - Bearish bias confirmed. Bulls getting nervous by now. More bad data releases and markets are leaving bear gaps unclosed. Today we also made lower lows and the pullbacks were shallow. All good for the bears and the odds of another strong leg down and a measured move got higher today.
sp500 e-mini futures
comment : Many of the same arguments as for dax. Very strong leg down and bears want another one. Measured move target would be 5350-5370. Market closed 5 points above the open, so a big nothingburger but both sides made money today.
current market cycle: trading range
key levels: 5500 -5670
bull case: Bulls made money today if they were quick to take profits but the problem is, that the pullback was not high enough to seriously question the bear case. Bulls need to fight for 5500 or we get the second leg down. Same easy if-this-then-that scenario for most indexes.
Invalidation is below 5490/5500.
bear case: Bears confirmed the leg down with lower lows and a shallow pullback, which they sold again. They closed below the daily ema and also left a bear gap open, though a small one. First target below 5500 is 5420 which is the 50% pullback from the bull rally.
Invalidation is above 5666.
short term: Bearish. Below 5500 I become full bear again but can also see this going a bit more sideways. I do expect this week to close deep red and below 5500.
medium-long term - Update from 2024-09-01: Very much like my outlook in dax. Trading range on the daily chart and we are at the highs. We could make higher ones or not. Does not matter much. I expect 5000 to be hit again in 2024.
current swing trade: Nope and will only do on bigger swing short it will probably be dax.
trade of the day : Very strong open and longs were good. After that it was so two sided and no obvious amazing trade. In hindsight it was an obvious short but not as it was happening imo. Market had strong two sided trading during news releases. After bar 11 close I expected market to close nearer to the open price and scalped some shorts.
OverNight ES price Action rEview 9-4-24Going over the Overnight session ES looking for clues as to how the market wants to trade today.
ES/SPX Levels and Targets Sept. 4thYesterday, sellers finally broke out of its 5585-5665 range. The 5630 failure would trigger short, as mentioned, and we dropped 120 points. Sellers now control until resistance levels are reclaimed (first 5535, then 5588).
As of now: 5519 and 5502 are key supports. Holding those levels could lead to a pop to 5535 (resistance) and possibly 5553+. If 5502 fails, I'll be looking to sell at 5493 and 5483.
Overreaction?Did the S&P 500 overreact in the tech sector as it broke to the downside on Tuesday? The Asia session so far continues lower as momentum carries into the Asia session. However, I am not looking for a big move to the downside and without new fundamental information I do think this was an overreaction.
2024-09-03 - priceactiontds - daily update - sp500Good Evening and I hope you are well.
tl;dr
Indexes - Huge bear surprise today. The strength of the selling was absolutely unexpected. Bulls closed August at the very high and had all the arguments to print new ath but as of now, this selling is different and new highs are now very unlikely. Most daily charts printed a huge outside down bar, closing at the lows and below the daily ema. If bears get follow through tomorrow, they have taken control of the market and we might take the elevator down again.
sp500 e-mini futures
Here is the quote from my weekly update:
bear case: Bears see it as a big trading range and we are at the highs again. They start scaling into shorts above 5600. Same observation as last week. Until bears print consecutive daily bear bars or stronger 1h bars below 5650, bulls remain in control. If bears somehow manage to print a bigger engulfing bear bar on the daily chart, especially if it closes below 5600, that would probably be enough to make many more bulls exiting their longs. Interesting week ahead of us.
comment : Market went only down today and did not touch the 15m ema, so it only makes sense to talk about the daily chart. Bears did exactly what they needed to do in order to make more bulls take profits. Now comes the most important part. If they let the bulls have a bigger pullback, this might go above 5650 again but if it stays below 5600 and we print 5490, that would certainly hit the last stops and could accelerate this down hard.
current market cycle: trading range
key levels: 5500 -5670
bull case: Bulls are running for the exits. They want to secure the profits from the insane reversal over the last weeks. I expect many more stops around 5490 and bulls need to prevent the market from getting there. Bulls have the slight hope this was an early sell climax with a bear trap below the daily ema and the expanding triangle. If they can get above 5600 again, their case is valid and we could get back above 5640 again.
Invalidation is below 5490/5500.
bear case: Bears have all arguments on their side, if they keep the pullback shallow and print below 5500 tomorrow. Seasonality is on their side this month and since the market is in a very volatile state, it’s possible to see 5000 this month. The first bigger target for the bears is obviously every round number, so 5500 but I do think 5400-5420 is the real target because that is the 50% pb from the recent bull rally. I will look to see if the 1h ema will hold tomorrow. Max bearishness would be to go sideways between 5500-5560 until bears want the bigger second leg down.
Invalidation is above 5660.
short term: Bearish but I expect a pullback before another leg down. Need to see how strong bulls are tomorrow. First bigger target for the bears is 5400.
medium-long term: Very much like my outlook in dax. Trading range on the daily chart and we are at the highs. We could make higher ones or not. Does not matter much. I expect 5000 to be hit again in 2024.
current swing trade: Nope.
trade of the day: Sell anywhere and hold. Sounds a lot easier than it is but those are the hard facts. If you struggle to do that, you need to come up with strategies to force yourself to swing part of your position and not close until a clear signal appears. Today had no signal to exit shorts.
