3 Technical Reasons ES Futures Will Hit 5450In this video, we dive into the 3 key reasons why ES futures are on track to hit 5450. I use Bollinger Bands, VWAP, RSI and a 5 day SMA.
WSP1! trade ideas
Using CME Groups Event Contracts For ES1! In A Choppy TapeIn this video, Anthony Crudele explains how to use CME Group's Event Contracts in the E-mini S&P 500 as a way to participate in the market in a choppy market environment.
A Pullback or More to Come?E-mini S&P (September) / E-mini NQ (September)
S&P, last week’s close: Settled at 5521.50, down 24.50 on Friday and 12.75 on the week
NQ, last week’s close: Settled at 19,927.25, down 112.25 on Friday and 55.50 on the week
E-mini S&P and E-mini NQ futures set fresh intraday highs on Friday but quickly faded after trapping those who bought on the heels of supportive economic data. Core PCE, the Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation indicator, was in line with expectations, and the Personal Spending component was light, which further supported the narrative of a tiring consumer after Q1 GDP showed a revision lower in Consumer Spending. Furthermore, June's final Michigan Consumer dataset revised 1-year inflation expectations lower to 3.0% from 3.3%. At that point, all the excitement was captured, and 10 minutes after the Michigan release, on the final day of the quarter, the tape exuded clear buyers’ exhaustion. Within two hours, the opening bell range had been surrendered.
The ensuing weakness certainly set the stage for perma-bears to spread their wings over the weekend (social media and pundit articles); yup, those who have been calling for the market to correct since sub-4000 S&P, and will act as if they were right upon the next healthy 5% consolidation. We do believe traders must carry a sense of caution as the new quarter, amid a holiday and data-heavy week, gets underway, but we invited Friday’s tradable range and weakness as it helped to further define support. We have major three-star support in the S&P aligning our previous pocket with Friday’s gap settlement at 5516-5521.50. Although we do have two additional areas of critical support defined at 5498.75-5503 and 5589.75-5592.75, we do realize an extended period of time below 5516-5521.50 after the first hour of trade would help encourage a prolonged healthy pullback through the middle of the week that could extend as low as 5400. Until then we must remain cautiously Bullish in Bias.
Traders must gear up for ISM Manufacturing today at 9:00 am CT and ISM Services on Wednesday.
Bias: Neutral/Bullish
Resistance: 5541.50**, 5547.25-5552.75***, 5563.75**, 5576.75***, 5583-5588***, 5620.75**,
Pivot: 5535.50
Support: 5516-5521.50***, 5510.25-5511.75**, 5498.75-5503***, 5489.75-5492.75***, 5465.60***, 5448.25-5449.25***, 5427.50-5430.75***
NQ (September)
Resistance: 20,039**, 20,070-20,075**, 20,116-20,130**, 20,178-20,197**, 20,215-20,228*, 20,247-20,274***, 20,371**
Pivot: 19,985
Support: 19,901-19,927***, 19,832-19,856**, 19,792**, 19,732-19,757****, 19,649**, 19,426-19,497****
Micro Bitcoin (July)
Last week’s close: Settled at 60,325, down 1,520 on Friday and 4,485 on the week
Bias: Neutral/Bullish
Resistance: 64,362-64,810***
Pivot: 62,995-63,015
Support: 62,254**, 61,010-61,320***, 60,325-60,390****, 59,590***, 58,130-58,845****
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Disclaimers:
CME Real-time Market Data help identify trading set-ups and express my market views. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs www.tradingview.com
*Trade ideas cited above are for illustration only, as an integral part of a case study to demonstrate the fundamental concepts in risk management under the market scenarios being discussed. They shall not be construed as investment recommendations or advice. Nor are they used to promote any specific products, or services.
Futures trading involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. Trading advice is based on information taken from trade and statistical services and other sources Blue Line Futures, LLC believes are reliable. We do not guarantee that such information is accurate or complete and it should not be relied upon as such. Trading advice reflects our good faith judgment at a specific time and is subject to change without notice. There is no guarantee that the advice we give will result in profitable trades. All trading decisions will be made by the account holder. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.
Short ES from 5540ES had a strong rejection from all-time highs on Friday's session. Given that reaction, I think we need to find a value area low before reaching for new highs again. There is large resting liquidity in the 5543-5545 area. My hypothesis is that we'll touch the low 5540's before heading back down in Monday's session.
Setting a sell limit order at 5540 with a stop loss at 5546 if that liquidity is breached. Looking to take profit near Friday's lows.
Weekly Plan $ES FUTURES 6/30/2024Key Levels:
Resistance Levels:
5568
5602
5628
Support Levels:
Weekly pivot: 5526
5502
5448
5410
Current Price: Now: 5533
Trade Plan:
Primary Objective:
Stay long or buy on dips as long as the price is above the weekly pivot of 5526.
Entry Strategy:
Initial Entry:
Since the current price is 5533, which is above the weekly pivot of 5526, consider entering a long position here.
Buying on Dips:
If the price dips to the weekly pivot level (5526), enter additional long positions.
If the price further dips to 5502, consider adding to the position again.
Exit Strategy:
Take Profit Levels:
Set initial take profit at 5568.
If the price moves above 5568, set the next take profit at 5602.
If the price continues to rise, the final take profit target should be 5628.
Stop Loss:
Set a stop loss just below the weekly pivot at 5520.
If the price breaks below 5526 and 5502, re-evaluate the position and consider exiting if the price drops to 5448.
Risk Management:
Use position sizing to ensure that the potential loss on any trade does not exceed 1-2% of your trading capital.
Adjust position sizes based on the distance from the entry point to the stop loss level.
Monitoring:
Regularly monitor the price action around the key levels.
Be prepared to adjust the strategy if there is significant news or events that could impact market conditions.
Example Trade Scenario:
Entry: Enter long at 5533.
Stop Loss: Set stop loss at 5520 (below the weekly pivot).
Take Profit:
First target: 5568
Second target: 5602
Final target: 5628
By following this trade plan, you can manage risk effectively while staying aligned with the market direction as long as the price remains supported by the weekly pivot.
6/30 | $ESSimilarly to SEED_ALEXDRAYM_SHORTINTEREST2:NQ , I am looking for a push lower into my green demand zone. Possible for the rangebound scenario as well.
One thing to note is that NYSE:ES pushed lower and was weaker relative to SEED_ALEXDRAYM_SHORTINTEREST2:NQ on Friday. Something to watch.
#202427 - priceactiontds - weekly update - sp500Good Evening and I hope you are well.
sp500 e-mini futures
Quote from last week:
bull case: Bulls will probably retest the highs or even make a higher high soon. First pullbacks / low 1, is a buy signal in a bull trend. After that retest, I - again, have nothing for the bulls. We are at the peak of this bubble imo and that’s where you get cautious and not even more bullish. Nvidia will touch 100 over the next weeks, if not days.
comment: Bulls got their retest as written and now market is technically free to have a major trend reversal. June was a perfect bull trend from the beginning of the month. Market had 3 legs up with a two legged correction completed now. We could spend more time at the highs in a trading range or have a deeper pullback from here, which is my preferred path forward. The bull trend line will probably be tested around 5460 and there market will decide if it wants to stay above 5400 or get down to 5320/5350.
current market cycle: End of the bull trend is near. Will soon see a deeper pullback.
key levels: 5450 - 5600
bull case: Bulls made a perfect double top with a huge reversal bar on the daily chart. Not good for them but they still managed to close above 5500, which is still max bullish. If the market stays above 5500 and keeps the most recent bull gap to 5430 open, we could probably only continue further up to above 5600. I do think this is the lower probability path forward.
Invalidation is below 5400.
bear case: Market moved sideways on the week and the daily ema is only about 30 points away and will soon be hit. Last time bears crossed it, they went 60 points below it to form the current nearest bull trend line which I think will be hit next week too and there we will have the most important support for now. If bulls are done with this and want their profits secured, we will see a bigger market character change where rips will be sold and we make lower lows again. 5450 will be the big price to break for the bears, if they want more downside. Monday will be key imo.
Invalidation is above 5620.
outlook last week:
short term: Don’t get too bearish too soon. You never want to try to pick a top or a bottom. Let the big bois with endless money do that for you and follow along. Expecting another push for retest of the highs, followed by another leg down, as painted in my chart.
→ Last Sunday we traded 5534 and now we are at 5521. Retest of ath was 5585, outlook was perfect and good for 51 points.
short term: Neutral until bears get follow through and print lower lows below 5500. I’d short to 5490 and see how market reacts to the daily ema. If the support is weak, more shorting to 5450ish. Absolutely no interest in buying here.
medium-long term: Bull trend is in the last legs and this will soon pull back much further and form a big trading range. I gave 5600 months ago and we are close enough to it or will touch it next week (5587 was close enough imo). Afterwards the money is made on the downside. 5300 over the next 2-4 weeks, followed by 5000 over the summer. updated: the time span for 5300. Could take 2-4 weeks instead of 1-2
current swing trade: Did not enter shorts in a sideways moving market. I want a strong break below before shorting.
Chart update: Two legged correction was almost perfect, I adjusted it to the Friday lower high, removed the minor bull wedge and channel and added the recent bull gap which will probably soon be closed.
ES Long Idea I might be a bear, but there's always opportunities playing either side. I think the 5500 area could be an excellent spot to long ES or SPY.
5500 is a psychological whole number and there's fresh demand there. I'd expect a bounce there, but if not I have another target below.
Bullish Trend, Opportunity to Buy The Dip?The Micro E-mini S&P 500 Index Futures (MESU2024) have exhibited a strong bullish trend within a well-defined upward price channel. The past week saw notable price movements and trading signals, providing both opportunities and challenges for investors.
Key Observations
Price Channels:
Upper Resistance Line: Approximately 5,580
Lower Support Line: Approximately 5,150
Current Price: As of the last trading day, the MESU2024 futures closed at 5,541.50.
Heikin Ashi Candlesticks:
A series of green Heikin Ashi candles indicate a continued uptrend, with intermittent red candles suggesting brief corrections.
Momentum Indicator:
The momentum indicator shows fluctuations, with the latest bars indicating a slight decrease in positive momentum.
Trading Signals and Strategy
Recent Signals:
-Sell Signals:
Detected near the upper resistance line around 5,570 on multiple occasions.
-Buy Signals:
Detected near the lower support line around 5,150.
Trading Ideas
Buy on Dips:
Entry Point: Near the lower support line (5,150 - 5,200).
Rationale: The lower support line has historically provided a strong buy signal, indicating potential for price rebounds.
Target Price: First target at the midpoint of the channel (~5,400), and second target near the upper resistance (~5,570).
Stop-Loss: Set a stop-loss below the support line at 5,100.
Sell Near Resistance:
Entry Point: Near the upper resistance line (5,550 - 5,580).
Rationale: Selling near the resistance line has provided effective exit points for profit-taking.
Target Price: First target at the midpoint of the channel (~5,400), and second target near the lower support (~5,200).
Stop-Loss: Set a stop-loss above the resistance line at 5,600.
Watch for Breakouts:
Bullish Breakout: If the price breaks above 5,580 with strong momentum and volume, it signals a potential continuation of the bullish trend.
Entry Point: Upon confirmation of breakout above 5,580.
Target Price: Initial target at 5,650, with further targets to be determined based on market conditions.
Stop-Loss: Set a stop-loss just below the breakout level at 5,550.
***Risk Management:
Stop-Loss Orders: Use tight stop-loss orders to minimize potential losses.
Position Sizing: Ensure appropriate position sizing to manage risk effectively.
Conclusion
The MESU2024 futures have shown a strong uptrend within the price channel, with well-defined support and resistance levels. Investors can capitalize on buying opportunities near the support line and selling opportunities near the resistance line. Additionally, watching for potential breakouts above the resistance level can provide further trading opportunities.
*For educational purposes only. Investors/Traders should do their own research before trading.
Lean and Prep for WEEK 7.1.24I am a discretionary trader. This means there are some weeks in the year when I wait and watch what’s going on. From here, there are 3 potentials -
1-We keep ranging here and the stocks keep choppy. In this case, it is waste of premiums.
2-We drop. In this case it is better to wait for lower levels to find attractive setups.
3-We rally. If this happens, I am pretty sure something nice and attractive will show up on my radar which I will share.
Stay Frosty!
ES Levels & Targets for July 1st/TipFor y’all that don’t know, July 1st is the most bullish day of the year seasonally, green 90% of years sice 2003 and up for the last 13 years straight. What does that mean for us? Absolutely nothing, because we trade price, not seasonals. Of course, these tendencies are good to keep in the back of your head as are all seasonal tendencies, but when it comes to actual trading, we trade the same way we do every day. Wait for the setups, take them without bias, manage it level to level, repeat. We must trade what is in front of us, not averages.
Specifically for tomorrow, 5519 has been a true ATM machine in CME_MINI:ES1! . From where we are now, I see 5519-5582 as being a large chop zone. But as buyers keep holding 5519, we can continue filling the range out.. This would mean retesting 5539, perhaps dip, then heading to 5557-60 again. If 5519 fails, buyers will have to reclaim it quick or sellers can try to start a deep leg down for a move sub 5500.
BREAKING: Powerful Inside WEEK Close NOT Seen since APRIL! $SPY
The last inside week led to a MASSIVE 400 pt rally BUT the bears Have ARRIVED this time with GRAVESTONE DOJI!
I plan to FULLY Automated my OPTIONS with layers
ES entering Trading Range Possibly entering a trading range for the duration of the election cycle.
Probable to test gaps below June/May
ATR monthly = 310 pts
Range back up until Jan/Feb 2025.
The plunge protection team will be enforce
Debunking Al Brook's 90 Minute Theory (81% Win Rate Strategy)Al Brook's states that on the E-Mini S&P500 after the first 90 minutes, we have a 90% chance of seeing the high or low of the day. I dug through the data myself from 6-28-2024 to 5-17-2024. Below (and in the video) is what I found.
First, I changed my timeframe to 90 minutes to make this task super easy. Then recorded all the of the 90 minute ranges within an excel sheet. This was not required for the research but, I had other plans for my blog. Then I looked to see what days the high and low were breached. These days were counted as days that disproved Al's theory. There were 12 where the high and low were breached.
17/29 = ~59%
There you have it, 59% the time the 90 minute range is either the high or the low of the day. But, what could you do with this information?
Since I already calculated the ranges, I had a good starting place. I tried to take the full average 90 minute range (22pts) and 1:1 Reward to Risk Ratio (R/R) indicators and place the entry at the closing price of the 90 minute bar. I didn't see any pattern that made since and the losers were considerably bigger than the winners. After making this video, I realized I should have only used half of the range. I think there is still work to be done here.
Anyway, I went through each opening range and looked for the distance of breakouts they had before turning around. I still used the R/R indicator for this but, that was just to get a measurement of points. At this point (no pun), I knew I could take an average of points from the range breakout and apply them to make a strategy.
If the original data says 59% chance we have seen the high or low of the day. That means if the next bar breaks the high or low of the range that we still haven't seen the high or low yet. A strategy with a 59% win rate really only needs a 1:1 R/R (without fees and commissions) to be profitable. So, I measured out 26.50 (this was the average breakout) on the R/R indicator for both a profit target and a stop loss. The entry was the first break of either the high or low.
The results were about 50/50 but, the total points collected was around 81.50pts over 29 days. Using a pretty mindless set and forget strategy. The one caveat was that positions that didn't hit stops or targets had to be closed out at EOD.
Well, 50/50 and 81 points of profit isn't bad but, what if we had a string of big loser and the strategy ended up 40/60 or something? Then we would be screwed. So, I applied a turtle trading technique where I only entered after a loser. If I won, I had to wait for another loser to appear. I couldn't trade a string of winners.
This is where the money shot is! There were a total of 11 trades when applying the turtle method. 9 of the 11 trades were winnings for a whopping 81% and 136pts over 29 days. What a set and forget strategy, huh!?
Ok Joe, but what about Al Brook's and his theory? Well, we have a small sample size here. Its a great starting place. I don't know what Al's sample size was nor do I know the timeframe in which this theory was developed. Markets are forever changing and I think that may be the case for this theory.
ES - Enter & Execute Do you know how to enter, execute and make your weekly wage in 10 mins? Watch the full breakdown to see how!
S & P 500 Market Outlook as of June 30, 2024- Still looking Bullish Overall
- Bullish SMTs formed below b/w NQ & ES
- Will wait for price to print first to get confirmation on Bullish Bias
20240628 ESI anticipate little bit more upside into 4h sibi and D wick CE resistance => reversal to the donwside. Second hi news at 9.45 => can bring a retracement to the upside or just acceleration to the downside.
S&P 500/BUY IDEAWe can see a good reaction in the direction of buying from the specified support area. Entry with a trigger is required for indexes and commodities
Potential long-term topThe structure in the S&P 500 after Friday's volatility implies the possibility of a longer-term double top. However, based on the fundamental Outlook I am not looking for a dramatic move down on Monday. A test of the 5500 level would not be surprising but a bounce above that level would also be typical behavior.
post market analysis/Trade recap 6/28/24Market Recap:
Great technical analysis this week with my predictions in the market.
Yesterday my levels of:
5583.00 (bullish) & 5518.50 (bearish) were almost spot on.
Price went bullish to the level of:
5584.25
Price retreated back to the levels of:
5518.25
Trades Recap:
Not so solid on the trade entries as I got faked out, not seeing the gap being filled rather than an anty setup. That is okay, however soon after I also missed a real Anty setup. It could have been a much better trading day but all in all I am not upset and feeling good for next week.
Sunday I will be posting an analysis for the following week and potential levels to be looking out for. These are levels that I believe have merit and strength.
Trade/Market recapNot the best day today. Although I was somewhat right in my analysis, my entry was far to early. The trend was trending bearishly and strong which indicated the pullback would be as well. Considering how hard price fell to begin with, I should have assumed price would go above a 50% retracement.
All in all, today was not a bad day but just poor judgement on my end. Losing is apart of the process that develops our skills and are required to grow.
I need to take one more step back and remember to factor in the entire trading environment, using personal discretion and technical analysis.
Price is continuing to fail its attempts to break out past recent highs and is staying range-bound but is trailing up post market. It is in my belief that like in previous days, price will go bearish after market open or potentially during pre-market session.
