ES Overnight Price ACtion REview 7-29-24Going over the ES Price Action sunday night to Monday pre-market looking for clues to what the market is telling us and how we want to position for the day.
WSP1! trade ideas
ES Day Trading analysisOn ES , it's nice to see a strong sell-off from the price of 5545. It's also encouraging to observe a strong volume area where a lot of contracts are accumulated.
I believe that sellers from this area will defend their short positions. When the price returns to this area, strong sellers will push the market down again.
The downtrend combined with the strong volume area along with the strong S/R area from the past are my main reasons for this short trade.
Happy trading,
Dale
ES Short IdeaI'll look to short ES or get SPY puts if it retests this uptrend from April it recently broke with a stop above. First profit target is about where price is now at 5525. Final target is 5400, which is near the highs from March.
You get great risk/reward by shorting right at the trendline, if it doesn't hold it's a small loser. If it rejects and hits 5400 relatively quickly, it's a big winner.
Building Success In PineScript - The Ment Pressure SystemAfter more than two weeks of playing around with Pinescript, I've managed to put together some really cool tools for my followers/subscribers.
The idea of price pressure intrigued me, so I decided to create something based on it.
Ideally, I planned to build something that helped traders find and execute better trades. It is difficult to identify chop vs. trending in any market/interval. My goal was to create a small suite of tools to help traders identify better trade setups.
I still believe I have more work to do with these pressure tools, but I'm very happy with how they work.
I did learn some "tricks" with Pinescript related to how variables and processes work (of course, by trial and error).
Watching the code run in real-time has been fun (watching a 2 min ES chart).
I can't wait to see how my followers use these tools and develop new ways to deploy them efficiently.
What are your thoughts? Anything I can do to improve?
Get some.
#trading #research #investing #tradingalgos #tradingsignals #cycles #fibonacci #elliotwave #modelingsystems #stocks #bitcoin #btcusd #cryptos #spy #es #nq #gold
ES - Volume Imbalances GaloreMassive intraday manipulation to the upside, testing 50%+ of the previous daily range before sinking lower into the abyss.
What's next for ES?
Macro equilibrium located @ 5,371 is the next weekly draw on liquidity but as we are in nomans land, i would like to analyse which area of liquidity is prone to attack.
5,533 - 5,432 is the dealing range i have my eyes on for Fridays trading
#202431 - priceactiontds - weekly update - sp500 e-mini futuresGood Evening and I hope you are well.
Quote from last week:
comment: Increased volume on the down move is telling you that this one is the real one. Over the next months, market will test down to the bull trend line from 2023-10, which is also where the weekly 20ema is. Friday we stopped around the smaller bull trend line and it’s a decent place to expect some pullback before we be on our way to 5400/5450
comment: Low of the week was 5432 and I wrote 5400/5450, +121 points. For most letters/rooms/subscriptions you have to pay good money for those outlooks, if you even get them this accurate. Hope you made some.
current market cycle: Bull trap triggered. Probably forming a trading range first before we get to the bear trend. First guess for the range would be 5300 -5600
key levels: 5400-5600
bull case: Lower lows and lower highs. Bulls stopped the selloff where they had to and their last bull trend line before only the one from the covid low remains. I do think the two legged correction is good for now for the bears and a bounce is due. Since both sides have reasonable arguments, I think it will come down to earnings. If the mag7 report good and their outlook stays good, we bounce higher. If they fail or some fail, we move sideways. Slightly favoring a higher bounce to form a proper channel downwards. Decent chance bulls might close both bear gaps.
Invalidation is below 5400.
bear case: Bears see another minor pullback which could not even get to the daily 20ema at 5640. They want another strong leg down to 5300 to make it clear that the bull trend is dead. It’s not out of the picture that they get it. Probability wise, it’s more reasonable to expect the bull trend line to hold and at least go more sideways before another leg down. Issue with that is, that next week we have so many news that will have a big influence on longer term traders, that we will most likely go higher than 5500 or lower than 5400. For bears it’s a really bad short right at the big support. You can scalp short on strong momentum again but bears will likely wait for a pullback before they try again. My preferred path forward is the bear channel on my chart below.
Invalidation is above 5600.
outlook last week:
short term: Bearish but also expecting a pullback first. Same as dax.
→ Last Sunday we traded 5553 and now we are at 5499. Low was 5432. Bearish was right. Pullback was right. Hope you made some.
short term: Neutral. Both sides have valid arguments. Will make this dependent on earnings and will only do scalps for now. Market has to form a better channel if it wants a sustained down move.
medium-long term: First target for this section was 5450 and that will be hit over the next days or 2 weeks. After that is 5300 over the next 3-8 weeks and 5000 could be hit again in 2024. —update: 5450 was hit mid July. Next comes 5300 over the next 2-6 weeks.
current swing trade: Took profits on the swing short from 5700. Will add again above 5550.
chart update: Added my preferred bear channel for the next weeks.
MES - Bearish - July/Aug 2024Not trading right right now.
Could take counter trend bullish trade but waiting for the pullback to enter for the sell.
Combined US Indexes shows imminent troublesThe week earlier saw the combined index chart log a double top, where last week started to break down. By midweek, the gap (from the previous rally after a breakout) closed. The week ended with a gap reopening.
On Friday, this would normally signal a reversal and a bullish reopening of the gap, but it looks a lot less likely given that the MACD is clearly downtrending, as well as the VolDiv confirming bearishness in more ways than one... going below zero line, etc.
So, for what it is worth, the reopening is likely to be a flash in the pan, and once it makes a lower low next week, it would really let it go - DOWN
AnticipationThe S&P 500 market structure in response to Friday's fundamental reports implies a market anticipating the Fed cutting rates in September. The expectation is for further movement to the upside but not a big day on Monday.
S&P 500 Index futures are likely to bounce back up after retestiSince 2024: S&P 500 Index futures have consistently rebounded after retesting the upward trendline.
This time should be no exception,
especially with the positive influence from Trump .
S&P July 26 Friday in this video I wanted to show that the market did go to the area where we would find buyers and that would have made around an 80 or 90 point trade on the ES. I believe a lot of Traders would have a hard time taking a trade at the trade location I was looking for because it felt very bearish. want to get into these markets before they move too far in your direction so you don't give too much profit. the market moved below what I would call the last higher low....which is where the buyers found a reversal pattern and drove the market to a new high. in this example the market traded below that last higher low which could be considered a bearish move... and even if you don't know what that description means there will be traders that will be bearish on the market.... but there will also be Traders who will let the market move lower to fill in a gap or a region that's a support resistance area and they will go along. and even if they didn't think exactly like that there will be shorts who will take their profit when it moves to that level just to take profit and nothing else.... which is why these trade locations work. but the bigger picture is after the market found its support and moved about 80 points higher I believe I can't remember the exact number, there is a good chance on Sunday or Monday that there may be selling on this Market and it may be significant enough to expand lower and reveal an even larger correction lower than the initial correction which I think was around 200 points if I remember correctly. my point is there's a paradox in a way that Traders can get wrapped up and victimized by the market because these Traders may not understand that markets find reversals where most Traders not only miss the reversal but they don't even see it as a viable option because they're thinking is too out of sync with the way smart money moves. I gave a point of view that favors the market going lower. if I'm not in the market but I'm looking for sellers in the evening when the markets open on Sunday.
History does repeat itself History does repeat itself .
Afternoon trade setup for ES and SPX.
5510 pivot for afternoon trade...
Stay Frosty!
TrendMaster Pro Advanced SignalsBar Replay determine take profit, stop loss levels, and potential pullback or reversal points.
Bar Replay is a powerful tool that allows you to go back in time and analyze past market movements. This feature helps traders practice and improve their strategies in a simulated environment without any financial risk.
Trend Master ProCompletion of the weekly cycle.
The weekly cycle in trading refers to the recurring patterns and behaviors observed in the financial markets over the course of a week. These patterns are often influenced by the release of economic data, market sentiment, institutional trading activities, and geopolitical events. Understanding the weekly cycle can help traders anticipate market movements and identify optimal times for entering or exiting trades.
ES levels and targets July 26thYesterday, sellers failed 5450, and put in a failed breakdown (my core edge) triggering a 90 point squeeze. Overnight, we got the same trigger again. Now Basing.
As of now: 5474, 5457-60 are supports. As long as above, we push 5498, 5511, 5519+. If 5457 fails, see 5438 again.
ES Price REview 7-25 & Overnight 7-26 PCE Going over Yesterdays RTH price action ES and the Overnight action PCE coming out at 0830. always manage risk we are Risk Managers first and Foremost. get the brain damaged people out of your inner Circle.
ES - RTHWeekly pivots have worked really well during RTH. Technically you might see a good bounce @ S2 where we are now. It's Friday, we have CPI and probably some big earnings releases today as well. If it were to bounce, I'd expect some downside in the first 30 mins after the open and then a rally. Failing to do this means there is more downside to come today. I am not predicting, just thinking through probabilities ;)
ES - Massive Sell-Off With The Possibility Of A Continuation?As you guys know, when i am in situations like this, i aim for low hanging fruits as when you are betting against the overall trend, it's easy to get your ass handed to you !
5538 i the next draw on liquidity but the overall draw would be a liquidity pool located @ the volume imbalance @ 5500
S&P 500 long setup as bulls defend long-term uptrend Fortune favours the brave. And after filling the gap created in June and bouncing off uptrend support dating back to when the Fed pivoted from rate cuts in November on Thursday, you get the sense it’s now or never for S&P 500 500 e-mini bulls. Either they’ll defend the level with the aim of testing the former highs or we’ll see a break lower. Until we see the break, we might as well help bulls with the fight.
I know the close below the 50-day moving average will be perceived as bearish, but bulls still managed to defend the uptrend despite a huge lift in volumes. The signals from RSI and MACD on momentum are also not great. But we’re not risking a huge amount of capital if we place a tight stop below the uptrend for protection, say at 5432. You could even wait for a push and close above the 50DMA before entering the trade, allowing for the stop to be raised.
Either way, if the trade works in your favour, consider raising your stop to entry level to provide free optionality on upside.
Potential targets include 5533, Thursday’s session high, along with 5631.5 which acted as support and resistance earlier this month. From there, we’re talking record highs.
If Microsoft can provide confidence on AI-driven revenues when it kicks off the next batch of Magnificent Seven earnings next week, it could easily flow through to Apple, Amazon and Meta that report later in the week.
DS
Ending the Week with a POP and Drop? ES just broke the long Daily Trend Linee
** IMPORTANT** = Now this has broken it is the new resistance don't get bull trapped, bears sleep all summer and there awake and hangry
- Weekly Time Frame to the 26 MA will tell us the trend
My guess is a hard bounce with the anticipation of NVDA 28th Aug..
-If it breaks sell coved calls and get in puts
-If Breaks bulls its going to get bloody (Banks "JP Morgan" anticipate 20% drop.
Levels to watch
Current Price 5,455 to the next whale zone looks choppy
(Whale) 5,470 If it gets here I anticipate a BullTrap
** On the 15 Min time frame its hitting the whale and the upper KC channel
The Drop
5,449 -5,497 (No trade zone)
If breaks watch the yearly level is a magnet @ 5,441
- Choppy im a lazy swing trader i dont believe in scaping Super Computers beat us evetime
After this big whale at 5,432
My last few have been sloppy, this is solid mark my words.
** Economics**
Forget the news and all the BS (NVDA will crush earnings) until then watch the big orders and the 2 year bond yield and the 10 Year
Oil likes the 80 Level, to pop this back up its Trillions of Dollars.
*Key indicators** - As one of these will drop and make the other move
Oil
Bitcoin
Gold
ES/SPX/Spyy
Alt
SouthKorea vs US Dollar
JPY/USD
Nervous marketThe S&P 500 environment indicates a nervous market waiting for the PCE report. The market movement will depend on how it interprets the Fed getting closer to 2% and a possible rate cut in September or deferring that possibility until later in the year.
AMP Futures - Bracket orders with TradingView MobileIn this idea we will demonstrate how to create bracket orders with Tradingview mobile.
2024-07-24 - priceactiontds - daily update - sp500Good Evening and I hope you are well.
comment: A trading range after a strong move is more often than not the final flag. Yesterday we formed a late trading range and bulls had a strong move up today, which makes me believe that the sell into the close was the final flag, rather the start of another leg down. Market is at huge support with the bull trend line from October and no one expects it to break on the first try. Can we dip below before a stronger pullback? Sure. Odds still favor the bulls for a pullback, at least to the 4h again, like the bull spike today. I have drawn 2 potential paths forward but as always, wait for the market to show its direction and not guess it and most certainly do not trade before it’s happening.
current market cycle: Trading range until 5500 is clearly broken. But bubble has popped. Enjoy the ride down.
key levels: 5400 - 5560
bull case: Bulls got a strong bounce to the 4h 20ema today. Tomorrow they want to defend the bull trend line from 2023-10 and keep the market above 5500, which is still max bullish if you look at higher tf.
Invalidation is below 5400.
bear case: Bears are in control of the market and in full STR mode. The bounce today was strong but bears reversed it even harder. They are trading below all important ema and their only target for the rest of the month is to break the big bull trend line, which would put bulls in panic mode. Such important trend lines mostly have to be poked at a couple of times before market can break through. If they step aside for another pullback higher, they need to keep it below 5533 or market will test 5560/5570 again.
Invalidation is above 5533.
short term: Slightly bullish with a clear invalidation price of 5430. Odds slightly favor the bulls for a second leg up and go sideways around 5500. If bears manage to break below the bull trend line, next support is at 5300.
medium-long term: Bearish. We will see 5000 over the next weeks again and 4600 over the next 12 months. Will update this time and price wise over the weekend but I expect to at least see 5000 over the next months in 2024. —unchanged
current swing trade: Closed my swing short from 5700 at 5450. I expect a pullback and will short it again.
trade of the day: Buying the opening reversal from 5432. On the 5m chart bears just quickly gave up and market made 97 up. Very strong 3 bar reversal and difficult to take after the 40 point drop from the open. Taking the short afterwards was probably easier and better. Market turned at the 4h 20ema and only spent 1h at around 5520 before bears printed a strong 15m bear bar which was strong enough to go short as it closed. On the chart it was bar 13
