April 23 Trade Journal & Stock Market Analysis April 23 Trade Journal & Stock Market Analysis
EOD accountability report: +2325 on Eval, didn't trade funded
Sleep: 10 hour, Overall health: :check:
— 9:00 AM Market Structure flipped bullish on VX Algo X3!
— 11:30 AM Market Structure flipped bearish on VX Algo X3!
— 12:30 PM VXAlgo ES X1 Buy signal (triple buy signal) B+ set up
— 1:33 PM VXAlgo YM X1 Sell Signal (triple sell signal) B+ set up
— 1:55 PM Market Structure flipped bullish on VX Algo X3!
— 2:30 PM Market Structure flipped bearish on VX Algo X3!
— 3:31 PM VXAlgo ES X1 Buy signal (double signal)
Next day plan--> Short 48m MOB
Video Recap -->
WSP1! trade ideas
April 22st Trade Journal & Stock Market Analysis** April 22st Trade Journal & Stock Market Analysis**
EOD accountability report: +325
Sleep: 3 hour, Overall health: tired
**Daily Trade Signals based on VX Algo System**
— 9:00 AM Market Structure flipped bullish on VX Algo X3!
10:20 AM VXAlgo NQ X1 Sell Signal
10:30 AM VXAlgo ES X1 Sell Signal
10:51 AM VXAlgo ES X1 Sell Signal
11:20 AMVXAlgo ES X1 Sell Signal (Triple signal) C+ set up
1:12 PM VXAlgo NQ X3 Sell Signal (Double X3 signal)
1:30 PM Market Structure flipped bearish on VX Algo X3!
3:00 PM Market Structure flipped bullish on VX Algo X3!
3:10 PM VXAlgo ES X1 Sell Signal (Triple signal) C+ set up
April 21st Trade Journal & Stock Market Analysis**April 21st Trade Journal & Stock Market Analysis**
EOD accountability report: +9335.75
Sleep: 8 hour, Overall health: tired
**Daily Trade Signals based on VX Algo System**
9:37 AM Market Structure flipped bearish on VX Algo X3
12:01 PM VXAlgo ES X1 Buy signal,
2:16 PM VXAlgo ES X1 Buy signal (double signal)
3:05 PM VXAlgo NQ X3 Buy Signal
3:31 PM Market Structure flipped bullish on VX Algo X3!
ES: DO OR DIE!The SP500 had quite the negative intraday price action today, up until we had a strong volume supported bounce at the Value Area Low of the current range, in confluence with the swing failure pattern of the previous wick low, as well as the 618 fibonacci level from the low to the high of the trump pump.
I am watching this do or die zone as the key area where the news fundamentally changed when Trump enacted a 90 day pause. Should we start getting acceptance into this zone, I would view that as extremely bearish for the reason that the market is reclaiming lower levels despite positive Trump news.
Lets see how it plays out!
Still Need Some Correction For S&P500 / ES Before Going UpAttention: Prices are read on the futures chart, so they might be different if you are reading on cash charts. But directions and realtionships, should be very similar.
I believe S&P is in a very volatile correction and it is a bit hard to read.
To me it looks like price completed a green (a) of the grey ((y)) wave with a failed 5th and started the green (b) wave with a very aggressive purple a wave.
I believe we are now finishing the blue a-b-c correction in a c-wave diagonal and I would like to see it go down to 5110 area in the green box, for the c wave to have room to develop into the yellow box in the 5530 area.
If price is heading above the 5630 area, I would start to look for another count, since this would mean the green (a)-(b)-(c) correction should have been a flat, and since the green (a) wave is not counted in three waves, this can't be correct.
Right now I would like price to go down to the 5110 area, then back up to the 5530, and then we start the last green (c) wave of the grey ((y)) correction.
And this green (c) wave has plenty of room. All the way down to 4176 before it invalidates the count.
After all this correction, happy days are starting again, where the 5th wave could be heading for the 6500 to 7000 area.
ID: 2025 - 0084.16.2025
Trade #8 of 2025 executed. So simple, yet far from easy...
Trade entry at 93 DTE (days to expiration).
The last few weeks have been quite challenging, mostly due to increase volatility (3rd highest expansion in history), as well as widening bid/ask spreads. This trade idea will dovetail with trade id: 006 to balance delta without incurring more slippage due to spreads. This trade will hold to expiration without any adjustments until the final 30 days of trade life.
Happy Trading!
-kevin
April 14th Trade Journal & Market AnalysisApril 14th Trade Journal & Market Analysis
EOD accountability report: +565
Sleep: 6 hour, Overall health: recovering, cant seem to get over 6 hour sleep.
**Daily Trade Recap based on VX Algo System **
9:30 AM VXAlgo ES X1 Sell Signal (triple sell signal)
9:41 AM Market Structure flipped bearish on VX Algo X3
11:02 AM Market Structure flipped bullish on VX Algo X3!
12:20 PM VXAlgo ES X1 Buy signal (Triple buy signal)
2:11 PM Market Structure flipped bullish on VX Algo X3!
3:20 PM VXAlgo ES X1 Sell Signal (triple sell again)
Today traded inside the zone, tested the 10min MA from the other day, held very well and bounced strong.
Bot alerts were on fire today.
Tuesday plan: Look for a backtest to support again on 48 min and push up to the MOB.
ES - Day Trading Analysis With Volume ProfileOn ES , it's nice to see a strong buying reaction at the price of 5075.00.
There's a significant accumulation of contracts in this area, indicating strong buyer interest. I believe that buyers who entered at this level will defend their long positions. If the price returns to this area, strong buyers will likely push the market up again.
Uptrend and high volume cluster are the main reasons for my decision to go long on this trade.
Happy trading
Dale
AT - Net ProbabilityThe AT Indicator also shows candle-by-candle the evolution of Net Probabilites —i.e., the difference between the probability of a Bullish trend and of a Bearish trend—. It usually helps the trader understand what the most likely direction is, and if the probability is gaining or losing momentum.
Futures Hold Firm—Is This the Floor for the S&P 500?Market Overview:
As inflation data continues to shape rate expectations and earnings season kicks off, traders are watching for signs of whether the recent selling pressure is fading or if volatility has more room to run. In today’s look at the S&P 500 Futures, we’ll break down trend conditions, price behavior, and the key Fibonacci levels that could play a role in where we go from here.
Bearish/Bullish Trend Analysis
Trend Condition:
Bullish Trends: 7
Bearish Trends: 7
Overview: The market is currently split, with 7 bullish and 7 bearish trend lines, reflecting indecision and a possible tug-of-war between buyers and sellers. This balanced trend condition suggests the market is in a potential transition phase rather than clearly trending in one direction.
Price Action and Momentum Zones
Current Price and Change:
Currently, the S&P 500 Futures are at 5,428.50, up by 32.75 points or +0.61%.
Market Behavior: This week’s gain is a modest move higher following a period of downside pressure. It could represent the start of a stabilization attempt, though stronger confirmation is still needed.
Momentum Zones:
The index is holding above the deeper momentum zones, testing resistance near the top of the current bearish swing range. It’s attempting a rebound, but within the broader mixed trend structure.
Fib Retracement Levels
Current Position Relative to Levels:
The current price levels are just above the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level.
Key Fibonacci Levels:
23.6% → 5,537.68
38.2% → 5,148.66
50.0% → 4,834.25
61.8% → 4,519.84
Analysis: Remaining above the 38.2% retracement level is important. This level often acts as a support zone in a broader uptrend, especially during corrective pullbacks. If price can stay above this level, it would suggest some stabilization is taking place and may invite more bullish momentum.
Overall Market Interpretation
The current positive movement doesn’t drastically change the mixed market picture. The market is still in a state of indecision, with neither bulls nor bears clearly in control. Holding above the 38.2% Fibonacci level, however, could be an early sign of strength and a possible short-term pivot higher.
Summary
The S&P 500 Futures are showing moderate strength to start the week, though the broader sentiment remains mixed. The move back above the 38.2% Fibonacci level is a key development, acting as support in what may become a base for recovery. It’s still too early to call a reversal, but this level will be important to watch as traders gauge whether the market can firm up or continue to drift lower.
Weekly Market Forecast: Stocks Markets Could Push Higher!In this video, we will analyze the S&P 500, NASDAQ, and DOW JONES futures for the week of April 14-18th.
The Stock Market Indices ended a turbulent week on a bullish note, and next week could see some continuation. The markets have peeked above the consolidation, and could be on the way to resume the overall bullish trend.
Wait for confirmations of the trend before jumping in! One bad report of tariffs or geo-political news can turn the markets down at any time.
Enjoy!
May profits be upon you.
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## ES (S&P 500) Futures Analysis
### **Current Situation**
1. **Price**: The ES futures contract (ESM2025) is currently at 5,391.25, up +89.25 (+1.68%) today.
2. **EMA**:
- EMA 5,749.80 is above the current price, indicating potential resistance.
- EMA 5,639.12 is also above the current price.
3. **RSI**: The Relative Strength Index is at 43.96, suggesting the market is neither overbought nor oversold.
### **Technical Analysis**
#### **Elliott Wave Theory**
- The chart suggests the completion of a 5-wave upward move, labeled (1) through (5).
- Currently, it seems the market might be undergoing a corrective phase.
#### **EMA Analysis**
- **EMA 5,749.80**: This EMA level might act as significant resistance.
- **EMA 5,639.12**: Like the other EMA, it presents resistance.
#### **RSI Divergence**
- The chart marks "Bear" zones. The RSI reading of 43.96 doesn't confirm oversold conditions, but it's approaching that area.
### **Recommendations for Traders**
1. **Short-Term Strategy**:
- Watch for resistance around the 5,640 level (EMA 5,639.12). A failure to break above this level could signal a continuation of the downward correction.
- If the price breaks above 5,640, it could test the higher EMA around 5,750.
2. **Medium-Term Strategy**:
- Be cautious about the potential for a deeper correction following the completion of the 5-wave pattern.
- Key support levels to watch include prior wave 4.
3. **Levels to Watch**:
- Resistance: 5,639.12 and 5,749.80.
- Support: Prior wave 4.
### **Conclusion**
The ES futures appear to be in a corrective phase after completing an upward 5-wave pattern. Traders should watch key resistance levels and be aware of the potential for further downside. A break above the EMAs could signal a continuation of the uptrend.
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Answer from Perplexity: www.perplexity.ai