20241101 ESThe scenario is on the chart. Initial upside => reversal downside on NFP => d ss raid => reversal to the upside and nice finish of the SandD week. That is NFP even. That is why it is better to see the initial reaction for any further judgments.by Yoo_Cool0
Es levels and targets Nov 1stOn Wednesday evening, ES saw its first short trigger in over a week by breaking below 5843. This led to 30 hours straight of steady selling, reaching the 5744 target. We’re seeing a relief pop now, but bears still remain in control until 5802 and 5828 are recovered. As of now: Upside targets are 5770, 5788, and 5802. Key support is 5741; if that fails, 5721-26 zone next down by ESMorg1
10-31 ES Price action review and Overnight session ReviewGoing over yesterdays price action looking for clues as to what the market was telling us and how we could have traded better. market gave many clues and we need to be aware of what the market is saying before we start dictating to her what she needs to do. 12:05by BobbyS8131
10-31 ES Price action review and Overnight session ReviewGoing over yesterdays price action looking for clues as to what the market was telling us and how we could have traded better. market gave many clues and we need to be aware of what the market is saying before we start dictating to her what she needs to do. 12:05by BobbyS8131
Trading Plan ES TODAYCurrent Position: Average entry price stands at 5741, ATM. Trading Plan: Targeting a push toward 5800, with plans to exit prior to the U.S. market open. Although seller momentum appears depleted, I remain cautious about the likelihood of a sustained rally. Intraday Strategy: Hold a bullish outlook until the market open. Anticipate a retracement toward yesterday’s close, at which point I intend to re-enter long positions. Monitoring Approach: I will closely supervise the U.S. market open trades with heightened scrutiny compared to pre-market positioning.Longby OssianH1
2024-2025: A New Global Crisis with Echoes of 2008In 2024, a new global crisis begins , and as usual, crises in the U.S. strongly impact the global economy, causing synchronized market declines worldwide. The S&P 500 market peak has been reached. The 2024–2025 crisis will be comparable in scale to the 2008 crisis, with a target decline range of 37-57% from the market peak. In terms of duration, the crisis is expected to persist throughout 2025 and may end in 2026. A more precise forecast of the crisis's conclusion can be made by monitoring the actions of the Federal Reserve, including changes in the United States Money Supply M2.Shortby Smollet0
Dramatic moveA dramatic move lower occurred in the Thursday. The expectation is for lower movement towards the 5700 level but not the same drama to the downside that we saw on Thursday.02:41by DanGramza2
Average Range Levels Short Market dumped really really harded and I participated in this move! I entered at 1/3AWR- take first partial at ADR and final Take profit at AWR- I felt this move was coming since when price mooves like this before NFP it tends to do these types of moves.Shortby Keclikk2
S&P 500: Reached forecasted supportVery bearish day! Hope you managed to get some profits out of it! Price is at support now, but it just might go a little lower still. It will be choppy all the way down though. If you're a short term trader, then you can look at the 5 or 15min charts. Make sure there's some kind of reversal chart pattern (like double/ triple bottom / inverted H&S) formed at the 5min before taking a Buy trade. Trade safely & NEVER risk more than you should!04:33by leslieyimsm0
ES levels and targets Oct 31stAfter a full week stuck in the same range, ES finally broke lower, triggering shorts yesterday evening—the first breakdown in over a week, as outlined in yesterday’s 4pm trading plan. Bears have the advantage now until a resistance level reclaims. As of now: 5828 needs to recover to establish a potential low. Next downside targets are 5800, followed by 5792-88. by ESMorg1
Anticipating a Retracement Before Shorting. wait for news/openThe tech sector has experienced a decline following the Q3 earnings reports. I am looking for a balanced retracement to yesterday's closing value. From that area, I plan to initiate a continued short position.by OssianH1
ES Price Action Review RTH 10-30 and Overnight 10-31Going over the RTH ES WEdnesday and the overnight session. Reviewing for clues the market was leaving us and we're coming up with a plan for today. 05:27by BobbyS8130
10/31/2024. ES 15 minute chart10/31/2024. ES 15 minute chart. Buy, sell and target pointsby dnelsonsp0
ES1 1W Bear ABCD Ext harmonicThe Bullish 5-0 pattern which has been at play over the last few years has finally run its course to price target at 1.272 extension. A bearish ABCD Extended pattern has formed recently, with retracement, but has reversed out of the prz and should drop rapidly to ABCD point C ~4350. This coincides with active bear deep crab harmonic on NQ1! (see prev post). This is a Weekly chart intended to show trend reversal and swing trading at key pivots--not for intraday.Shortby wormmaster20210
Seller's returnSellers returned to the S&P 500 on the daily chart. I was looking for an up close on Wednesday but what we found was a skittish market that broke to the downside. Follow through to the downside could be tough because there are strong levels of support for the market to break through.01:29by DanGramza2
2 Day Anchored VWAP on ES futuresInitially you have to understand what the volume weighted average price (VWAP) is. Broadly it can be defined as: Total dollars traded divided by the total shares for the period studied Vwap= ∑(Price∙Volume)/∑(Volume) This means that VWAP is more responsive to volume than price and its calculation does not depend on the timeframe we are in. It is also the most common benchmark used to compute transaction costs. what is the anchored VWAP ? The AVWAP is an indication of the average transaction price of the participants for however long it’s plotted. Normally the VWAP resets everyday at the start of the trading session, but the anchored vwap will continue its calculations from the candle it was anchored until the present bar meaning no resets in that period. In an uptrend buyers will try to defend that average entry price when price comes back to it. in the uptrend when the AVWAP is below price that means that the average participant is making money, when price crosses under they start to lose money and that could lead them to try to exit and push price even lower. So the cross of the AVWAP can mark a change on the near term trend. It is very important to mark the AVWAP from significant price levels or catalysts, in this case we will analyze the 2 Day anchored VWAP (2DAVWAP) on CME_MINI:ES1! futures. Where do you anchor the 2DAVWAP ? For example, if it's a wednesday morning you want to anchor the VWAP at monday 5pm CME_MINI:ES1! futures open. An easy way of finding the right candle to anchor is checking the "session breaks" option in the chart settings so after your session break line shows the next candle (in any timeframe) that will be the one anchored so you can trade it at the next session. How to trade it ? 1. It is very important that CME_MINI:ES1! is in a clear and strong uptrend, this is a following the trend strategy. It can also be used in downtrends but backtesting it has proven to me that long setups are the best setups. If CME_MINI:ES1! has been uptrending and then starts consolidating but starts to move up from a good support level you can also enter a setup on that market context. 2. Anchor the VWAP from the session open and wait until next day. 3. Wait until price retraces to the 2DAVWAP the next day. It only works when the retracement happens the next day, don't trade that anchored VWAP further than that. 2. Watch the price action - Volume when it reaches the AVWAP. Price action and volume should Show an effort of buyers to continue the trend, Candle should reach the 2DAVWAP and form a hammer candlestick closing above the AVWAP in the 15 min TF (best entry point, wait for candle close). 3. Mark the 38.2% and 50% Fibonacci retracement levels from previous day low to the present day high. The lowest price can go for you to still consider entering the trade is the 50% retracement, lower than that you dismiss the trade. Go with confidence if there is a confluence between fib and the 2DAVWAP. 4. Set a Stop loss based on maximum adverse excursion (MAE) and the average true range (ATR) for that day (this risk management should be defined with backtest). A good tip is always try to enter the closest to were you would be wrong in a trade, which can be below the 50% retracement for example. 5. Set a Target profit based on maximum favorable excursion (MFE) and the average true range (ATR) for that day (this risk management should be defined with backtest). A good tip is try to exit at least at previous highs if there is volatility on the day. Finally, the entry could be at any time of the day, it could happen at 2 am EST or it could happen at 10 am EST, it really does not matter. Always take trading seriously, stay discipline and do your own backtesting and find what works the best for you. I will be posting more educational posts on AVWAP. This strategy has only been backtested in CME_MINI:ES1! futures. Educationby FTWTraders0
2024-10-30 - priceactiontds - daily update - sp500Good Evening and I hope you are well. tl;dr Indexes - Many bull trend lines are gone for good. Bears closed at the lows and they desperately need follow through tomorrow. If nq won’t keep the markets afloat tomorrow and drops below 20400, we will likely see a big sell off with 20200 or lower. Dax looks done, clear break of the trend line, swing shorts are juicy here. sp500 e-mini futures comment: Bull trend line is now also broken and once market prints below 5800, this is over until year end rally might try 6000 again. Same logic as dax but market is not as bearish after today. Bears need follow through below 5820 and then 5800, if they get it, buckle up. Bulls obviously want to reverse up like the past 2 weeks and trade above 5900 again. current market cycle: triangle probably broken - entering bigger trading range key levels: 5800 - 5870 bull case: Bulls need to stay above 5830 or we test 5820, followed by 5800. Today’s close does not look good. Before the close I heavily favored the bulls to reverse this again but then we saw couple of sell spikes which erased the previous lows. Market turns neutral again above 5865. Invalidation is below 5800. bear case: Bears need follow through. No surprise. 5800 is the target for tomorrow, once they get it, market is free to fall down to 5730-5740. Interesting day ahead of us. Invalidation is above 5920. short term: Leaning bearish if we stay below 5865. Best chance for bears in a long time. medium-long term - Update from 2024-10-13: Very rough guess for the remaining trading weeks in 2024. Spike up, decent correction (~10%), nasty (blow off top) year end rally if earnings hold in Q4. Don’t trade based on that guess. current swing trade: Nope trade of the day: Selling 5880 and buying 5850 has been profitable for many days now. So it was today.Shortby priceactiontds0
S&P500: In a channel, choppy, and likely breaking downAs forecasted, it was a choppy day & likely going to continue tomorrow. If you want to be trading, then it's better to time your entry at the nearest to the support level & take profits at the next resistance level, and same on the Sell side. Take care & always trade within your risk!03:41by leslieyimsm0
MES Long 10/29/2024MES is in a SW + uptrend. Placed a long position in confluence DZ (upper one). Risk= $250. Target= 1:1 and top of measured move.Longby SethuratnaAnbuvinothUpdated 0
ES Levels and targets Oct 30thFor the past two weeks, ES has been forming a large flag pattern with 5864 acting as a key mid-pivot. Yesterday, I was eyeing a rally to the upper range at 5882, 5891+, and we hit 5892 overnight. As of now: Expect some complex chop. Supports are 5864 and 5855; staying above these keeps 5882, 5891, and 5896 in play. If 5855 fails, I’m looking for a drop to 5838. by ESMorg1
ES levels for today . Levels of interest and targets for today. All laid out the previous day with our custom indicatorby wildtrade10
RTH ES Price ACtion Review 10-29-24Going over the price action in the ES RTH had a beautiful breakdown failure and the market ran hard and recovered a major level and then squeezed. great day to review and replay for future reference. 02:56by BobbyS8130