AMGN trade ideas
AMGN - Watch - Potential 10%+ Swing
Potential swing trade developing. Strong bearish price action currently. Look for bullish price action off of support. Favorable risk/reward trade with plenty of room to the upside.
Fundamentally, this is a good stock with solid fundamentals. Although i would exit the trade between $162-164, as far as an investment, I believe valuations should be much closer to $175.
Repatha will bring major volume and take AMGN to new heights.Repatha (AMGN) and Praluent (Regeneron (REGN)/Sinofy (SNY)) are two PCSK9 inhibitors, a new class of drugs to treat hypercholesterolemia more effectively than previously possible. This will trigger a HCV-like battle between the two as both have high efficacy. Both have room to share the market, allowing both to make a significant amount of money on these blockbuster drugs.
Unlike the HCV battle where GILD had more than a year of first-to-market status, Praluent will only have a month of such status assuming REGN/SNY can capitalize on that extra time to quickly bring it to the US market faster than AMGN. However, Repatha is expected to hit the EU market sooner, so it's a fair tradeoff as both will be able to get some good traction.
Additional difference could be in the pricing strategy of Praluent being cheaper due to lower dosing, however Repatha has a slightly higher efficacy (61% vs 56% Praluent) and has noted a possible 50% reduction in cardiovascular disease. If AMGN is able to prove these claims with a large post-marketing study, Repatha will have a significant advantage due to the added secondary benefit and can easily command a higher price point.
Important Repatha Dates:
June 10 ADCOM
Aug 27 PDUFA
Important Praluent Dates:
June 9 ADCOM
July 24 PDUFA
MM's taking this down to $157 is a bargain given the strength of the company's overall pipeline. At the very least, we should see some action heading into the ADCOM dates and both drugs are expected to easily get positive recommendations. EMA has already given positive recommendations for both drugs in May. EMA approval for Repatha is expected in September, shortly after the FDA approval.
AMGN weekly spread150/149 weekly bull put spread. I would not even look at spread unless we close below 154 on the hourly. The only way I would unravel spread is if we open, gap below 151.61 which is also line in the sand. .06 limit expiring this week .Analysis on 1/28/15 WW
AMGN Uptrend Reversal, Head and Shoulders, DailyRight shoulder of head and shoulders complete at $158, indicating reversal of uptrend. Volume followed pattern, with increased volume on left shoulder, decreasing volume during head formation, followed by increasing volume on right shoulder neckline formation/breakout..
Possible pullback on $158 line, but continued high volume may void.
Possible support starting around $145.
500% and now time for a correctionThere has truly been fantastic gains on this one, but I'm on the short side for now. Scaling in, tight stop and gl...
Minor or Major correctionThe price of AMGN has gone too wild, With RSI divergence,
there will be a correction.
Minor correction might find support around 116,
Major correction will retest the upper uptrend channel line
Conditional Trade Bullish / Bearish Perspective(Summary).... On this chart I have highlighted the key areas of interest that I find important in navigating this stocks price action. I have listed the major support and resistance area.
(Pattern Type) Inverse Head and Shoulders / Break Down
(Target Price) 122 , 130
(Bull Perspective) In order for this trade to initiate price needs to break and hold 114 notice in the past when price tried to break this level it could not hold and resulted in a head fake so volume on a break and the ability to hold the break to the upside is crucial.
(Bear Perspective) If price fails to break this resistance then a short trade may be in the works on signs of break down the first target for the short trade would be the bottom of the green channel then support floor 1.
(Overall Market Influence) If the market receives a pull back in the coming days it may inhibit the bullish trade from taking place.
LONGChannel breakout and retest of support BUT I'll wait for the breakout on the wedge before I go LONG
