BABA Trade Recap (5/22 - 5/25)Personally, I took about 10 contracts for this play, like always. I put in about 800 into this play and took home about 1.8k in profits off of this. I hope you all banked as well!
BABA/N trade ideas
BABA - Double your money in a year ?BABA is way down near it's All-Time low of $57. Weekly Stochastic RSI is in oversold. Seems to have clear horizontal targets to test on the way back up at $85 and $120. Will the 57 mark hold as support or will it ping lower to around $45. It's going to bounce somewhere and when it does it's bound to be a biggie...
Alibaba Keeps Making Lower HighsAlibaba rallied sharply between November and early this year, but now it may be showing signs of continuation to the downside.
The main pattern on today’s chart is the series of lower highs since January 26. The Chinese e-commerce stock bounced around $81 in March and April. The result could be a potentially bearish descending triangle. (That $81 level could be especially important because it’s a support level running back more than a year.)
Next, consider how the 50-day simple moving (SMA) tried to get above the 200-day SMA but couldn’t stay there. Some technical analysts may think that “death cross” confirms a longer-term downtrend.
Finally, you have the large red high-volume candle on May 18. It immediately followed better-then-expected earnings and revenue -- a potential sign of investors losing interest over the longer run.
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Alibaba to breakdown?Alibaba - 30d expiry - We look to Sell a break of 79.38 (stop at 84.38)
The primary trend remains bullish.
The stock is currently underperforming in its sector.
This is currently an actively traded stock.
Daily signals are bearish.
We are trading at oversold extremes.
There is no clear indication that the downward move is coming to an end.
79.48 has been pivotal.
A break of the recent low at 79.48 should result in a further move lower.
Our profit targets will be 67.38 and 65.38
Resistance: 85.00 / 88.50 / 91.43
Support: 82.70 / 79.48 / 75.00
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Analysing Trends, Patterns, and IndicatorsGreetings, fellow traders! I am thrilled to present my analysis and insights on TradingView, where I will be sharing trend analysis, chart patterns, and technical indicators to help you navigate the exciting world of the stock market. It's important to note that I maintain a neutral stance and base my decisions solely on identifying promising opportunities.
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Alibaba's Earnings Report and Future Prospects:Detailed AnalysisFollowing the release of Alibaba's latest earnings report on May 18th, the company's stock encountered a 5% decline. In the fourth quarter of fiscal 2023, which concluded on March 31st, the Chinese e-commerce and cloud leader achieved a 2% year-over-year increase in revenue, reaching 208.2 billion yuan ($30.3 billion). This figure surpassed analysts' expectations by $410 million. Furthermore, Alibaba's adjusted net income experienced a significant rise of 38%, amounting to 27.4 billion yuan ($4.0 billion), or $1.56 per American depositary share (ADS). Additionally, the company surpassed the consensus forecast by $0.21 in terms of adjusted earnings.
For the full fiscal year, Alibaba achieved a 2% growth in revenue and a 4% increase in adjusted earnings per ADS. Despite these positive results, Alibaba's stock price has plummeted more than 70% from its all-time high in October 2020. This situation prompts investors to consider whether Alibaba's stock presents a value play opportunity in the context of China's COVID-19 recovery or if it will remain out of favor in the Chinese tech sector for the foreseeable future.
Alibaba's decline can be attributed to a combination of regulatory, competitive, and macroeconomic factors. In September 2021, the company faced significant regulatory actions when China's antitrust regulators imposed a record-breaking $2.8 billion fine on Alibaba. This penalty required the company to terminate exclusive agreements with merchants and aggressive promotional practices while undergoing scrutiny of past and future investments. These regulatory measures weakened Alibaba's competitive position against rivals such as JD.com and Pinduoduo in the Chinese e-commerce market.
Furthermore, macroeconomic challenges impacted Alibaba's performance. China's economic slowdown and intermittent COVID-related lockdowns had a broad impact on consumer spending, consequently affecting Alibaba's performance. Companies also reduced their spending on Alibaba's cloud services due to the challenging economic conditions. Additionally, Alibaba's cloud business suffered a setback when ByteDance, under international pressure, transitioned the data of TikTok's overseas users from Alibaba Cloud to Oracle's cloud servers in 2021.
In terms of revenue distribution, Alibaba generated 67% of its revenue from its China Commerce segment, which encompasses platforms like Tmall, Taobao, and brick-and-mortar stores. Another 9% of revenue came from Alibaba Cloud, which remains the leading cloud platform in China. It is worth examining the performance of these two core businesses over the past two years.
Although the economic slowdown significantly impacted investor sentiment towards Alibaba, there are positive developments worth noting. Alibaba's operating margin expanded from 8% in fiscal 2022 to 12% in fiscal 2023, while its adjusted earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA) margin increased from 19% to 20%. These improvements can be attributed to aggressive cost-cutting measures, including a significant reduction in the workforce with approximately 19,000 layoffs throughout 2022.
In March, Alibaba unveiled its future plans, which involve dividing its business into six new groups: Cloud Intelligence, Taobao Tmall Commerce, Local Services, Cainiao Smart Logistics, Global Digital Commerce, and the Digital Media and Entertainment Group. Each group will be led by separate CEOs, and many of them will pursue additional funding or initial public offerings (IPOs).
As an update to these plans, Alibaba announced in its fourth-quarter report that it intends to conduct an initial public offering (IPO) for its entire cloud division. The company plans to distribute the shares from this IPO as a special dividend to its current shareholders. Additionally, Alibaba aims to seek external financing for its global e-commerce division, which includes its overseas and cross-border marketplaces. Furthermore, the company is exploring potential IPOs for Cainiao Smart Logistics and the grocery division of its Taobao Tmall Commerce Group.
It's important to note that Alibaba's restructuring plan does not involve a complete split of the company. Even if the various business groups are spun off into publicly traded companies, Alibaba will retain majority stakes in all of them. The purpose of the restructuring is to enable these groups to pursue external financing independently, thereby reducing the burden on Alibaba's balance sheet. Additionally, it allows each group to make autonomous decisions without concerns about potential impacts on Alibaba's other divisions.
While Alibaba did not provide specific guidance for fiscal 2024, there is potential for its growth to accelerate as China's economy undergoes a post-COVID recovery. The spinoff of Alibaba Cloud has the potential to generate fresh capital and enhance the company's profitability.
Analysts anticipate that Alibaba's revenue and adjusted EBITDA will grow by approximately 10% and 9% respectively in fiscal 2024. However, these estimates should be approached with caution due to existing uncertainties. From a valuation standpoint, Alibaba's stock appears inexpensive, trading at around two times this year's sales and 10 times its adjusted EBITDA. Nevertheless, the stock may continue to face challenges until its revenue growth gains momentum and concerns regarding delisting threats for U.S.-listed Chinese stocks are addressed.
While Alibaba is certainly worth monitoring, it may not be considered an outright bargain at the current moment. Investors should exercise caution and closely monitor the company's growth trajectory and the regulatory environment before making investment decisions.
BABA: Sell ideaSell idea on BABA as you see on the chart because we have the breakout with force the vwap indicator and the support line.Thanks!
BABA: Buy ideaOn BABA as you see on the chart we have the breakout with force the vwap indicator by a big green candle so it's mean that we will have a big probability to have an uptrend.Thanks!
BABA H&S playing out good so far. BABA H&S playing out well so far.
I will probably be entering more here.
Another catalyst just arrived with Micheal Burry holding over 10% of his portfolio in BABA stocks to hedge the economic situation.
Definitely a good long-term hold here.
Especially if you add onto it the restructuring BABA is going through which experts have predicted will increase stock price from anywhere between 13 - 36% just off that.
I like it.
Thoughts?
Update on $BABAThe price crushed against the long term trendline
It created a bearish ATR Break and even a bearish EMA crossover
Potential 60% move Bull Flag Set Up if resistance become supportBaba traded down 5% Thursday
and currently down early premarket for Fridays Trading session
Looking at the Monthly Chart. There are a few things that stand out to me
1) double bottom
2) Potential Bull Flag
3) Baba actually closed below the 1st resistances level I pointed out, but not the second. It would have to close below $81 to invalidate the 2nd resistances level as support. I believe the 2nd resistances level is a key retest and needs to be flipped to support.
4) If Baba can close above both resistances, then we have a valid Bull Flag set up and Im looking at $130 Baba stock price. Thats over 60% from current stock price.
*No Position, looking for confirmation*
I'm Neutral til confirmation
i.Wish BABA < $80; Mar Q reports a miss in its toplineAlibaba will remain to be the leading eCommerce and Cloud platforms in China. Its leadership position enables it to benefit from industry growth and economies of scale. Alibaba has industry-leading investment in R&D to facilitate cross-selling and targeting. Hence there should be room for customer management growth. It also runs industry leading B2B and cloud services, and has initiatives targeting large addressable markets such as overseas eCommerce,
new retail, O2O and an affiliate, Ant Technology.
Bank of America reduced BABA price target from $144 to $132.
I am using the daily Elder Impulse along with my drawing scheme to build up my BABA position for its June report.
BABA Alibaba Options Ahead of EarningsIf you haven`t sold BABA here:
and bought it here:
Now Analyzing the options chain of BABA Alibaba prior to the earnings report this week,
I would consider purchasing the 90usd strike price Calls with
an expiration date of 2023-6-16,
for a premium of approximately $4.45
If these options prove to be profitable prior to the earnings release, I would sell at least half of them.
Looking forward to read your opinion about it.
$BABA has the jetpack readyNYSE:BABA with a potential long SHS pattern, set to explode in the next weeks. Aiming 50% retracement from previous high.
BABA BABA weekly and hourly charts
Ugly wick so far on the weekly rejecting the 21EMA, Nice looking flag forming on the hourly chart. I like this short set up here. Looking to take this green to red tomorrow. Would love a retest of the 21ema on the hourly or that 87 area to get a short entry. Aiming for day 2 continuation down. Targets are 83.5 and 81.
BABA AnalysisPrice did not play out as analyzed last week. Right now, it's heading towards my original expectation which is to mitigate the bearish POI at 99.17, leaving behind a lot of sell-side liquidity. The bullish POI at 78.85 will be acting as a magnet for price to target next.
$92 is easy. Can BABA reach $98 this week?
The 50 analysts offering 12-month price forecasts for Alibaba Group Holding Ltd have a median target of 141.97, with a high estimate of 217.33 and a low estimate of 72.60.
Watchlist 2023-05-18 $MU $GOOS $LAZR $BABA $HD $SE AMEX:SPY broker out of the sticky range between 409.30 and 414 on extremely strong VOLD, ADD, and TICK ratios. However, showing signs of weakness or likely profit taking this morning. I think as long as we can hold over 414 early on the strength will continue. If not, looking for support at 412.80 (yesterday BO area). Keep yours ears peel for decisions on the debt ceiling talks as a stalling of talks will likely send the market down.
For further confirmation of a trend day, watch for:
USI:ADD pinned near +\-2000
USI:VOLD ratio over +/- 3
USI:TICK cumulating past 0 wicking to +/-900
NASDAQ:MU - day 2 long continuation. Waiting for some type of retest of a key level, 65.30 - 24.70. Chips are extremely strong right now and MU broke out of a 52 week range.
NYSE:GOOS - 2023 Revenue up 31.4% Provides Guidance for increased store growth. What's most important is gapping out of the yearly range from 21.00 with room to 24.77. Although the ATR Is 0.7, in a strong market, could see 2.0 of range after gapping 2.2 ATRs in the PM.
Support 21.00
Resistance 24.77
Inflection 21.80
NASDAQ:LAZR - over 6.80 break of 9/10 technical range break. No known news today but received some price upgrades a few days ago and tech stocks are strong as diamonds right now.
NYSE:SE - day 2 short continuation was wrong PD so we flipped long. However, SE was a lagger yesterday after the morning rally. Still in play for a long today if the market strength continues and SE trades above 73.50.
NYSE:HD - great entry for a continuation yesterday as we discussed. Looking for a pullback to add to swing position.
Let me know what you guys are looking at in the comments!
NYSE:BABA - looks like the strongest of the Chinese ADRS. Looking for a pullback from an Opening range break.
Whistler
M23A190619
Alibaba’s share profits wiped in the first quarterAlibaba Group Holding Limited shares (symbol ‘BABA’) didn’t perform really well in the first quarter of the year and are currently in loss of around 6% compared to the first trading day of January. The company is expected to report its earnings for the fiscal quarter ending March 2023 on Thursday 18th of May, before market open. The consensus EPS is $0,92 compared to the result for the same quarter last year of $1,45.
‘ The Chinese e-commerce giant is looking healthy with a current ratio of over 150% meaning the company is more than able to cover its short term liabilities with assets currently in possession while the total assets outweigh the total liabilities by more than 2 times. The total revenue for the trailing twelve months are higher than previous years indicating the company’s economic activities are growing making its shares an attractive addition to investors portfolios. ’ said Antreas Themistokleous, an analyst at Exness.
From the technical analysis perspective the share is approaching the end of the current triangle formation that is trading within its boundaries for the last 5 months. Even though the overall trend of recent months is bearish there is some potential for a correction to the upside in the short term given that the price manages to break above the current level of the 38.2% of the weekly Fibonacci retracement level.
If this is the case in the coming sessions then the first point of support could be found around the $90 price area which consists of the psychological resistance of the round number and is also the dynamic area of resistance between the 50% of the Fibonacci retracement and the 50 day simple moving average.
$BABA - ER will determine break out or break downNYSE:BABA #BABA ER is 05/18 (tomorrow). If the ER is good, we can break out of the triangle and it can get to $110 - $120. Downside risk is $80. On the longer time frame, the IHS still a possibility if ER is good.
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Strategy For the next earning on May 18..! (Skin in the game)Before any action, we should answer this question:
Is BABA going to experience higher-than-expected volatility in the next 3 weeks?
If your answer is No, do not waste your time reading the rest of this article!
If your answer is Yes,
Then we should talk about the direction:(Current price for BABA Put/Call option is 3.1-3.4 USD for May 19, 2023
If you think it moves toward 105: Buy 2x Call and 1X put, strike price 85, expiration May 19.
If you think it moves toward 79: Buy 2x Put and 1X Call, strike price 85, expiration May 19.
Position size: 3% of your capital (2%+1% based on the direction you think it will move)
What could happen:
1- BABA does not move: you will lose 3%
2- BABA moves big against your prediction, you will not lose any money!
3- BABA moves toward your target, you will double up!
Statistics:
BABA's average weekly move is 11.63% (Min:4.8%, and Max: 26% in the past trading year)
BABA's average daily move was 4% (Min:1.5%, and Max: 13% in the past trading year)
Skin in the game: I have bought 20 Call options and 10 put options Strike 85, May 19, 2023
if the price remains between 75-90, I will lose money, otherwise, I will win!
