COIN Elliot wave count and thesis Bullish Case for Coinbase Stock Price based on www.fool.com
According to the information provided in the article, let's analyze a bullish case for Coinbase's stock price:
Wave 1:
Following the crypto meltdown of 2022, Coinbase faced challenges in attracting traders and recovering trading volume. However, the stock price managed to rebound and is up more than 60% for the year. This can be considered as the completion of Wave 1, indicating a potential turnaround and positive market sentiment.
Wave 2:
Wave 2, the corrective wave, represents a temporary rebound or consolidation after a decline. Despite the regulatory battle with the SEC, Coinbase's stock price rallied, and prominent investor Cathie Wood of Ark Investment increased her stake in the company. This signals confidence from value investors and suggests that Coinbase has the potential to regain its market position.
Wave 3:
In the bullish case, Wave 3 represents a resumption of the upward trend. The article mentions that Coinbase's regulatory battle with the SEC may work in its favor. If the SEC's actions against other competitors, such as Binance, result in operational limitations, Coinbase could benefit by gaining market share and attracting more traders. This could lead to increased trading volume and revenue for the company.
Wave 4:
Wave 4 is a corrective phase within the overall uptrend. In this case, Coinbase's plan B of expanding its operations offshore to more crypto-friendly jurisdictions is seen as a potential catalyst for growth. By tapping into markets where regulators welcome cryptocurrencies, Coinbase could gain a competitive advantage and further drive its revenue and earnings.
Wave 5:
Wave 5 represents the final leg of the bullish move. If Coinbase successfully defends itself against the SEC's allegations and continues its expansion efforts, the stock price could experience a significant upward surge. The long-term potential of the global crypto market, combined with Coinbase's positioning and market share, may attract further investor interest, leading to continued growth.
Conclusion:
Based on the analysis using Elliott Wave Theory and the information provided in the article, there is a bullish case for Coinbase's stock price. The completion of Wave 1 suggests a turnaround from the crypto meltdown, while Wave 2 indicates a temporary rebound. The ongoing regulatory battle with the SEC could work in Coinbase's favor, positioning the company for potential market share gains. Coinbase's offshore expansion and long-term growth prospects add to the bullish sentiment. However, it is important to conduct further analysis, considering additional indicators and fundamental factors, to make well-informed investment decisions.
COIN trade ideas
COIN 6.25.23Trash stock still in its range. buy the bottom. Sell the top. We had this played out since MARCH and it continues to move as expected. If you are buying for the long term do your thing. If you are trading short term you will probably get rekt. Mid term scale out at the top. HODL a moonbag til 2050. :p
💾 What Is Coinbase Saying? 218 Target Long-Term Mid to long-term, we are bullish and that's for sure. The only uncertainty remains for the short-term.
For example, on the weekly timeframe we can see the inverse head and shoulders pattern forming, a classic reversal pattern:
Notice the strong bullish bias on the weekly RSI that bottomed May 2022:
The bulls have that going for themselves, a strong 2024 regardless of the short-term.
Now, moving to the daily timeframe, the main chart above, first we notice the signal mentioned in the previous trade idea which is the high volume 6-June marking a low.
The current structure is a bullish consolidation phase within a long-term higher low.
Then we have these gaps that work for us as targets.
Thanks to these gaps I was able to predict Tesla's (TSLA) recovery perfectly, not sure if you followed back in January 2023. The same situation here...
If you have doubts short-term, I understand, we can't really know where it will go but, the long-term is 100% clear, the bigger picture is UP!
Thank you for reading.
Remember to boost, follow and comment to show your support.
Namaste.
Coinbase Goes deeper Coinbase Shatters Expectations: Here's Everything Investors Need to Know
Trend bearish
bullish breakout has to be confirmed,otherwise it will be a bulltrap
that offers the oppurtunity to sell more the asset
Bearish breakouts often confirmed strongly,the bearish trend continues
Up against the world’s largest crypto exchange (Binance) and the largest publicly-traded crypto company (Coinbase), it’s likely Gensler is in for a fight. Coinbase CEO Brian Armstrong said months ago that the SEC was building its case, and, if it sued, the exchange would counter.
SEC delays its recommendation on Coinbase petition
The SEC told the court, though it hasn’t made a decision on Coinbase’s rulemaking petition yet, it may make a recommendation within 120 days.
The SEC added that until and unless it decides to propose new guidelines, Coinbase must follow current law.
It was only last week that the agency charged Coinbase and Binance with securities violations.
The U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) said it hasn’t made a decision on Coinbase’s rulemaking petition yet. However, its staff members think that it will make a recommendation within 120 days, i.e. four months.
The regulator made these remarks while responding to a court order on whether it was taking any action on rulemaking as asked in Coinbase’s petition filed earlier, even as it was suing the crypto exchange for securities violations.
Coinbase alleged in the court that the SEC has decided to reject the petition. The SEC said that this was not the case, though it thinks that it will make a recommendation within a period of 120 days.
The agency also stated that its enforcement action against the crypto trading platform was not in conflict with any regulation decision. Until and unless the SEC decides to propose new guidelines, Coinbase must follow current law, according to the enforcement agency.
On the other hand, the SEC argued that “statements by the Chair do not – and could not – constitute Commission action denying Coinbase’s rulemaking petition.”
Any SEC decision would also need a majority of a quorum vote, the regulator argued.
The SEC charged Coinbase last week, alleging that it was operating as an unregistered securities exchange, broker and clearing agency. A day before its action against Coinbase, SEC charged Binance, world’s leading crypto exchange, with similar allegations.
Coinbase Q1 Earnings Highlights BUT I STAY SHORTTREND STRONG SELL
I love the WALLSTREET: Everytime the reports are beyond the estimates of the Wallstreet I sell.
My axxuacy is far beyond 75%.
Why does it work?
Everytime the news are released, the big boys have aleady taken profits, and now the gonna for better prices o better to make more money in the opposite direction. That is what I call the smart money
I do not care if I like the name or the company or the product, when I trade.
Emotions are your enemies,when trading.
You heard expressions like
Never catch a falling knife
There is time to go long, time to go short and time to go fishing.” — Jesse Lauriston Livermore
“Markets can remain irrational longer than you can remain solvent.” – John Maynard Keynes
“Most people, whether bull or bear, when they are right, are right for the wrong reason, in my opinion.” – Jesse Lauriston Livermore
“Someone will always be getting richer faster than you. This is not a tragedy.” – Charlie Munger
“The trend is your friend except at the end where it bends.” — Ed Seykota
What is a Falling Knife?
A falling knife is a colloquial term for a rapid drop in the price or value of a security. The term is commonly used in phrases like, "don't try to catch a falling knife," which can be translated to mean, "wait for the price to bottom out before buying it." A falling knife can quickly rebound - in what's known as a whipsaw—or the security may lose all of its value, as in the case of a bankruptcy.
Falling knife refers to a sharp drop, but there is no specific magnitude or duration to the drop before it constitutes a falling knife.
A falling knife is generally used as a caution not to jump into a stock or other asset during a drop.
Traders will trade on a sharp drop, but they generally want to be in a short position and will use technical indicators to time their trades.
What a Falling Knife Tells You
The term falling knife suggests that buying into a market with a lot of downward momentum can be extremely dangerous—just like trying to catch an actual falling knife. In practice, however, there are many different profit points with a falling knife. If timed perfectly, a trader that buys at the bottom of a downtrend can realize a significant profit as the price recovers. Likewise, piling into a short position as the price falls and getting out before a rebound can be profitable. Moreover, even buy and hold investors can use a falling knife as a buy opportunity provided they have a fundamental case for owning the stock.
That said, there is a very real risk that the timing will be off and there could be significant losses before any gains. So many traders still pay lip service to the adage. Instead of trying to "catch the falling knife," traders should look for confirmation of a trend reversal using other technical indicators and chart patterns. An example of a confirmation could be as simple as waiting for several days of upward momentum after the fall or looking at the relative strength index (RSI) for signs of a stronger uptrend before buying into the new trend.
CONCLUSION: The trend direction is short! BASTA! The short volumes are high what means more selles are enthusiastic to risk more money in short direction.
Fundamentals:
Although the Q1 reportings where positive the market paticipants have not been enthusiastic. No bull volume, no, new Higher Hihs. Instead the market did the opposite: Wallstreet went short. IF THIS IS BEYOND THE ESTIMATES:THEN I decide to sell more on weakness.
$COIN - Weekly (Narrowing Triangle)It's been a long fall since NASDAQ:COIN 's glory days and it has never surpassed it's IPO values at 428. Prices seem to be trading within a narrowing triangle now between 50-70 range. Despite all the negative sentiment associated with crypto, I think we may see a pop to 120+ in 2024 when CRYPTOCAP:BTC halves.
Coinbase vs SECThis idea will form the basis for my main Crypto market idea, along with my latest idea about Grayscale that I just shared. Again, this is an idea I shared as a Twitter thread, and it's something I've been talking about for a while but had forgotten to share on Tradingview.
Coinbase is facing several lawsuits and issues, but the main one now is its battle against the SEC on whether some of its products involve or are securities themselves. In my opinion, Coinbase has a chance of winning against the SEC for several reasons:
1) The SEC reviewed and approved Coinbase's Form S-1 registration statement during its IPO process and approved its business model. How can the SEC go back and claim that Coinbase violated securities laws if, two years ago saw no violation?
Approving a Form S-1 registration doesn't imply an endorsement of the issuer's business legality. Yet, how could the SEC approve such a form without requiring disclosure of potential violations if they believed Coinbase was acting unlawfully?
2) Coinbase took two significant to soften the blow of the SEC lawsuit potentially. Firstly, it publicly responded to a "Wells Notice" the SEC served in late March. A Wells Notice is a letter the SEC sends to people or firms when it plans to bring an enforcement action against them. In its response to the Wells Notice, Coinbase outlined several areas of SEC focus, such as operating an unregistered exchange, clearing agency, and broker, as well as its wallet offering and staking activities. Coinbase made robust arguments against the SEC's positions for each point.
Secondly, Coinbase sued the SEC in a U.S. federal court on a "narrow" administrative matter to highlight the issues it asserts are negatively impacting U.S. residents and their access to and use of cryptocurrencies. The lawsuit asked the court to compel the SEC to respond to a rule-making petition that Coinbase filed the previous year. This petition addressed several issues raised by Coinbase. The lawsuit argues that the SEC violates the Administrative Procedure Act by not responding within a reasonable timeframe.
To be clear, I think most of their coins and services are securities, but the SEC hasn't provided a clear framework and is 'regulating' through enforcement. It's clear the SEC, and many regulators globally, have failed to protect investors. We've seen very few scammers get convicted, and that's a problem, as it has been damaging crypto for a long time.
Here I am arguing why Coinbase could win these cases, which, unfortunately, will damage the crypto industry even further. In my opinion, many who issued securities or created scams have to pay for their crimes. However, I don't think exchanges should be forced to pay hefty fines for it. Of course, they should register with the SEC and comply with regulations, but I think it's unfair to sue exchanges when the SEC hasn't provided a clear framework or way for them to register with it.
Price action
COIN gapped down on the news that the SEC sued it, but that was mostly priced in already. We already knew that the SEC considered most of these coins/tokens securities and that they planned to sue Coinbase. Most of the stock's supply is held by ARKK, which has a massive bet on Coinbase, which now seems to be the custodian for ETF Blackrock filed for.
The stock bottomed immediately on the dip and has already filled the gap. It's now showing signs of strength and will probably continue much higher from here. The stock is down 90%, and there are very few gaps or double/triple bottoms lower to be tested/swept. Most of the untapped liquidity is higher, so it's natural for the market to want to go higher from here.
In my next idea, I will explain even further why I think the SEC is cornered and why crypto could go higher. Stay tuned!
We like Coinbase to $475COIN 1W
Following the recent SEC lawsuit, sentiment on Coinbase has never been lower. However, this may not be the end for Coinbase. As long as they don’t go bankrupt and there IS another bull cycle, COIN seems like a safe, regulated way to gain beta on a future Bitcoin bull market. Additionally, Coinbase plans to open its international perpetual futures exchange which should do well since allocations of Binance misappropriating customer funds was recently released. If Coinbase can execute on their futures exchange launch, there could be a massive migration of customers from unregulated exchanges such as Bybit and Binance to Coinbase.
As a result, we like Coinbase to $475.
SEC Lawsuits Against Binance and Coinbase: Unraveling Conflicts Hi Traders, Investors and Speculators of Charts📈📉
In recent developments that have rocked the cryptocurrency industry, the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) has filed lawsuits against major cryptocurrency exchanges Binance and Coinbase. These legal actions stem from alleged violations related to registration requirements and investor protection. Additionally, a potential conflict of interest has emerged, as former Binance job applicant Garry Gensler now serves as the head of the SEC. This write-up aims to shed light on the sequence of events, the accusations faced by both exchanges, and the implications for the crypto market.
A - Binance Faces SEC Charges
The SEC filed a lawsuit against Binance, one of the world's largest cryptocurrency exchanges, and its CEO Changpeng Zhao (CZ), accusing them of violating U.S. securities laws. The charges revolve around Binance offering and selling cryptocurrency derivatives to U.S. investors without being registered as a securities exchange.
B - Coinbase Sued by the SEC
The SEC also sued Coinbase, a prominent U.S.-based cryptocurrency exchange, alleging that it failed to properly register its planned lending product, Coinbase Lend. The SEC argues that the lending product qualifies as a security, and Coinbase should have registered it accordingly. However, Coinbase has filed a counter lawsuit aiming to prove how many times they have tried to reach out to the SEC for clarity.
C - Conflict of Interest: Gensler's Connection to Binance
Prior to joining the SEC, Garry Gensler reportedly applied for a job at Binance but was rejected. Soon after, he assumed his role as the chairman of the SEC. This situation has raised concerns about potential conflicts of interest, as Gensler now oversees the regulatory actions against Binance.
The SEC are basing their entire case of a few key factos:
❗ Securities laws mandate that companies offering securities or related products to the public must register with relevant regulatory authorities. Failure to do so can result in legal action.
❗ Investor Protection: Regulatory bodies aim to safeguard investors' interests by ensuring transparency, disclosure of information, and adherence to applicable regulations.
❗Cryptocurrency Derivatives are still derivatives: Financial contracts whose value is derived from an underlying cryptocurrency, such as futures contracts or options.
❗Cryptos are Securities: Financial instruments, including stocks, bonds, or investment contracts, that represent ownership or participation in a company or enterprise.
Implications for the Crypto Market
The SEC's actions against Binance, Coinbase and Ripple signal increased regulatory scrutiny in the cryptocurrency space, highlighting the need for compliance with existing securities laws. However, it also points out how flawed the current system is as Garry Gensler basically has autonomy over decisions that may be conflict of interest. His actions are affecting the entire crypto space as well as stifling innovation since the SEC has been so negligent to work with the blockchain community for solutions. Not even to mention the shorts that were opened on both Binance and Coinbase just before the lawsuit news dropped, picked up by on-chain analysis as seen all over Twitter. This confirms and reiterates that politicians and other people in power have insider information on stocks, as was last seen with the Nancy Pelosi case.
💭Although this seems like an attack on blockchain, all of the above proves how desperately the world needs a new system that is unbiased, transparent and fair. With regulators desperately grabbing for strands of power in any way possible, it actually just strengthens the argument for blockchain and a cryptocurrency-based future.
And finally, from a trading perspective, these are some decent discounts, hence I'm labeling this post as long. I'll be bagging up because this is a steal for both Coinbase stock and BNBUSDT.
_______________________
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CryptoCheck
________________________________
Sauces:
Reuters: "SEC sues Coinbase over failure to register"
The New York Times: "SEC sues Binance over securities violations"
CNBC: "SEC sues Binance and CEO Changpeng Zhao"
Coin Telegraph: "SEC Gensler parallels Binance, FTX sued"
BBC: "US regulator sues Coinbase over interest-earning product"
CryptoSlate: "Coinbase seeks to withdraw staked ETH amid SEC lawsuit"
YouTube: "SEC sues Binance and Coinbase"
The Wall Street Journal: "SEC sues Binance and Coinbase: What the charges mean for crypto"
NASDAQ:COIN BINANCE:BNBUSDT BINANCE:XRPUSDT PANCAKESWAP:NUTUSDT_9D4097 CRYPTOCAP:BNB
COINBASE is ready to retest lows Negative sentiment in crypto markets trigger negative sentiment for Cryptocurrency stocks.
Coinbase sued by SEC is not a positive news.
Technicals looks bearish now.
Lower highs are showing distribution and MACD looks bearish too as we see an increasing negative momentum and bearish cross on daily timeframe.
We are expecting the price to retest 32 $ where it's fine to speculate on longs as it's a support. Will it hold? Time will tell. If the sentiment in crypto market improves, probably Coinbase will see a decent bounce. We will monitor the price action and the SEC lawsuit to keep this trading idea updates.
Stop loss should be placed below the swing low (30$ -29 $ - depends on your risk tolerance). If support breaks, the price will enter the discovery mode to the downside and most likely we will see much lower prices.
If the price pumps, entering shorts at the downsloping resistance line (orange line) may be a good idea.
Good luck
$COIN - Why I added more todayNASDAQ:COIN I added more on #Coinbase . Why?
1. SEC declared 54 crypto tokens as securities. See my previous tweet.
2. Binance US announced late on Thursday that it would no longer allow customers to trade on its platform using U.S. dollars.
What does that mean?
In order for the people to convert these 54 tokens and other cryptos to USD, they would have to exchange those to other crypto currencies like #Bitcoin and #Ethereum. Then transfer them to an Exchange like Coinbase to convert it to USD.
On top of that SEC could make it a nightmare for #binance to continue to operate in the US. #Binance already pulled out of Canada due to new guidelines for cryptocurrency exchanges including investor limits and mandatory registrations.
If Binance pulls out, it could benefit Coinbase.
These are just pure speculation on my part and my position size currently is small. I can lose it all and I won't lose my sleep.
Not an investment advice.
$COIN: Stalled for NowThe Weekly Chart of NASDAQ:COIN shows that the stock has been struggling to build a bottom despite some early buying from large lots within the sideways action of the bottoming range.
Coinbase has future growth potential as an investment, but the CEO and Board need to realize that the SEC rules the securities markets and that Cryptos, as digital assets, are securities that must be registered properly.
So it is likely to stall here until the Board and CEO realize they have to behave like grownups when dealing with the SEC.
Is COIN okay now?COIN is in a bit of a controversy with the SEC and potential regulatory charges. On the 4H
chart it had a big plunge from the high market valuation it received over the month since
favorable earnings. It has reversed after a few days of Doji candles showing market indecision.
The MACD indicator shows upwards K/D lines having crossed under the histogram on the day
before this idea. The mass index indicator has given a reversal signal since the value first
crossed above 27 and then triggering by crossing under 26.5. Having reversed, can COIN
maintain the current trend ? I will find out by taking a long trade with potential 15% upside
essentially betting that the dust will settle and it will be business as usual with demonstrated
increasing revenues on the recent earnings report.
$COIN SEC’s New TargetAfter its stock plummeted almost 20%, Coinbase Global, Inc. (NASDAQ: COIN) faces losing more than 30% of its revenue due to the SEC’s lawsuit. With that said, COIN stock and the crypto market may be set to rebound thanks to the newly introduced draft bill in Congress that would add much-needed clarity to the crypto market. As Cathie Woof has been adding shares of COIN despite the current uncertainty, COIN stock may prove to be a profitable buy at this dip.
COIN Fundamentals
SEC Lawsuit
U.S. regulators are starting to go after more crypto companies after the biggest target, FTX, collapsed back in 2022. The SEC is claiming that COIN and Binance are trading unregistered securities in their alt-coins (non-Bitcoin or Ethereum tokens), while COIN claims that these coins shouldn’t be treated as securities.
In the event that alt-coins are treated as securities and require registration, COIN may lose up to 30% of its revenues since the process of registering securities can be cumbersome and has a risk of the application being denied. While COIN seems to be in a better position than Binance, it is still in danger of losing a lot if the SEC wins since COIN will lose a big chunk of its revenues and its stock may further plummet. Following the lawsuit announcement, COIN stock dipped more than 20%, with Bitcoin also sliding 5% before erasing almost all of its decline.
After COIN stock went down almost 20%, it has since recovered by almost 10% with Bitcoin also recovering by almost 4%. Furthermore, Cathie Wood snapped up more than 400 thousand shares after the dip across three actively managed ETFs – with ARK Fintech Innovation ETF making COIN its third-largest holding with a weighting of 5.35%.
New Government Regulations
Earlier this month, Congress introduced a new draft bill regarding crypto trading. The new draft bill proposes that cryptocurrencies offered as part of an investment contract would fall under SEC oversight, while those that qualify as commodities would be overseen by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).
With cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin and Ethereum, Binance’s BNB definition as securities or commodities would depend on how decentralized their underlying blockchain is, as decided by an SEC ruling. If the SEC lawsuit is an indication of what it sees as a security and what it sees as a commodity, it seems like both Bitcoin and Ethereum would be safe since the SEC excluded them from the lawsuit against COIN.
Following in the SEC’s footsteps, the UK’s financial regulator has introduced new regulations regarding crypto trading. With the new regulations, crypto trading companies will need to introduce a cooling-off period for first-time investors starting October 8, 2023, and it will also ban “refer a friend” bonuses to ensure those who buy crypto understand the risk.
With so much uncertainty in the cryptocurrency market, the Binance and COIN lawsuits, combined with the newly introduced draft bill, may provide much-needed clarity to crypto trading which will benefit the whole industry in the long term.
COIN Financials
In its Q1 2023 report, COIN’s assets increased 56% QoQ from $89 million to $139 million, and its cash and cash equivalents increased 13% QoQ from $4.4 million to $5 million. COIN’s total liabilities increased by 62% QoQ from $80 million to $130 million.
Revenue decreased 36% YoY from $1,164 million to $736 million. Operating costs decreased almost 48% from $1,720 million to $896 million resulting in operating loss decreasing 77% YoY from $554 million to $123 million which amounted to a net loss of $79 million – an 81% decrease YoY.
Technical Analysis
COIN stock’s trend is neutral with the stock trading in a sideways channel between $56.8 and $63.26 which has been broken following the SEC’s lawsuit against the company. Looking at the indicators, the stock is trading below the 200, 50, and 21 MAs which are bearish indications. Meanwhile, the RSI is neutral at 40 and the MACD recently turned bullish.
As for the fundamentals, COIN stock just witnessed a catalyst in the SEC lawsuit against it. The result of both the SEC lawsuit and the new crypto bill will be important future catalysts for COIN. Given that the stock is trading near support and is yet to retest the lower trendline, the current PPS could be a good entry point in COIN stock.
COIN Forecast
With the SEC lawsuit against COIN, the crypto trading company is at risk of losing more than 30% of its revenue. The SEC lawsuit, while bad for COIN, may provide more clarity about the crypto market, which can be good in the long term for the crypto industry. Furthermore, the new Congress draft bill can prevent more lawsuits of this kind from happening in the future since it will introduce clear regulations regarding cryptocurrencies and crypto trading companies. The crypto market is currently in disarray, but Ark Invest’s addition of new COIN shares after the lawsuit indicates that COIN stock may still be worth keeping an eye on.