115 MAYBE GOING SIDEWAYSIt seems to be headed towards another resistance hotspot of 115, but it can do much damage for shorts. However, it's too early for a permanent continuation at this point. Expecting a reprieve of 100.
CVNA trade ideas
$CVNA Short | “car vending machines”I may return to this to add some additional insight / commentary.
Short Carvana. The rupturing of the “Yellowstone Bubble” will not be kind to “car vending machines”
CVNA Big Bullish PotentialHey guys!
Found a setup I happen to really like that Carvana NYSE:CVNA has been forming this past few months. I generally would stay away from a company/stock like Carvana, as potentially bankrupt-bound companies are not what I like to trade. But I couldn't help but realize the Cup & Handle being formed on the weekly chart currently. Below are some highlights of what I find attractive in the technical layout of this setup:
- Weekly Inverse Head & Shoulders / Cup & Handle
- Momentum is leaning bullish (TTM_SQUEEZE)
- Bought up from $20 demand zone
- Daily Chart has ema cloud bounce
- Decent Volume Accumulation
Limits to this / confirmation needed:
- Weekly ema cloud testing key area
- Monthly Ema Cloud key level as well
Closing Notes: I do believe that this technical setup is very strong. I also like that not many of the fundamentals & catalysts will likely play into this as Q3 Earnings just reported. This ER also swung a profit in EPS, and sent a pop in the stock adding to some positive sentiment surrounding NYSE:CVNA
Overall I am looking to go long on a bullish retest of some sort and wanted to share a setup I have not seen in a while!
Inverse Head and Shoulders for CVNARSI is high at 65.90 and beginning to touch the support line. If it breaks through we have plenty of upside. It is bullish trading above the 200 moving average. The MACD has crossed and we have earnings on Feb. 22. If the earnings are good, this could potentially continue to move higher like in the past. the volume is 6 million. Looking the white lines for taking profits. Stop loss at the 20 day EMA.
Simply a matter of time....Carvana´s financials does not seem to last. on top of that, their business model is quiet stupid. The rally they have had the last years time has been unheard of looking at the financials, and i think buying out of the money put options or simply shorting Carvana is a good bet within the next couple of years. It can happen this year or the year after.. but simply, its a matter of time..
CVNA - What we need to see for a long scalpWe've been rocking the shorts on CVNA for the past week and we're looking to catch the rebound however big or small it is.
Definitely a shorter term long play until we prove more on the HTF and especially with this juicy gap that we're currently filling
Happy Trading :)
CVNA looks ready to breakdown. What a thing of beauty. Talk about all the bullish momentum going to hell. What can you say, its been a heck of a run. I don't even think a SL is gonna be necessary here, but Friday's high seem ok. I won't wait that long though, ill probably just buy back if it can grab hold of the UTL and pass a retest, or get far enough away from my buffer. Im shorting on the open as long as it hasn't gapped down too much. If it has ill wait for some kind of retest.
CVNA: Critical phaseHi,
looks like if CVNA breaks $60.5 and end the week above $60.5 it has all the chances to go to $90.
Beware it's RSI is already too high.
Break and confirmation is important.
Cheers,
Happy trading
CVNA TOP?Always hard to call the top. Carvana had a ridiculous move on questionable earnings but a nice one nonetheless. It is inside a nice upward channel hitting the very top as well as a measured move from a cup and handle is exactly at that point. We'll see whats next.
CVNA Macro ProjectionMacro Analysis for Carvana (CVNA)
Projection:
Based on a comprehensive analysis of pattern and cycle analysis, I anticipate a significant retracement in Carvana's stock price over the next 6 months. This retracement is projected to amount to approximately -50% from its current valuation.
Technical Analysis:
Technical indicators corroborate the assessment of overbought conditions and the emergence of a liquidity zone. Additionally, Indicators such as Spots , Changes and Levels align with the projected retracement targets.
Pattern Analysis:
Historical pattern analysis reveals similarities between Carvana's current price movement and previous instances where other securities in the form of fractals or 1-1 matching reached similar levels. The recurrence of such patterns lends credibility to the projection of a retracement.
Targets:
First Target ($75 Range) (0-3 months): The initial target for Carvana's retracement lies within the $75 range.
Second Target ($50 Range) (3-6 months): A secondary target is identified within the $50 range, signifying a deeper retracement and potential consolidation phase.
Carvana Shares Spike 35% on Earnings Beat First Quarter Results
Carvana ( NYSE:CVNA ) stock Skyrocketed more than 30% during Thursday's market open after the used car retailer reported record results and turned a profit during the first quarter.
Company's Performance
Earnings per share: 23 cents — it was not immediately clear if it was comparable to the loss of 74 cents expected.
Revenue: $3.06 billion reported Vs. $2.67 billion expected
Carvana ( NYSE:CVNA ) reported record first-quarter net income of $49 million, compared to a $286 million loss during the prior-year period. Carvana ( NYSE:CVNA ) also posted an all-time-best adjusted earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization, or EBITDA, of $235 million, up from a $24 million loss a year earlier.
Carvana's ( NYSE:CVNA ) gross profit per unit, or GPU, which is closely watched by investors, was $6,432. Carvana’s adjusted EBITDA profit margin for the quarter was 7.7%.
Carvana’s net income included a roughly $75 million gain in the fair value of Carvana’s warrants to acquire Root Inc. common stock. This did not impact its GPU or adjusted EBITDA.
“In Q1, we delivered our best results in company history, validating our long-held belief that Carvana’s online retail model can drive industry-leading profitability while delivering industry-leading customer experiences,” Carvana CEO and Chairman Ernie Garcia III said in a release.
He reiterated that the company’s performance was driven by efficiency gains in its operations, especially the reconditioning of vehicles for sale as well as selling, general, and administrative expenses, among other areas.
Carvana ( NYSE:CVNA ) expects to continue to grow its adjusted EBITDA profit margin further as the company continues to grow, according to Garcia. He declined to disclose how high the company believes it can grow those results.
The company anticipates further cost reductions or efficiency gains to increase profitability through areas such as advertising as well as overhead and operational expenses.
Garcia said Carvana ( NYSE:CVNA ) is working on increasing vehicle reconditioning and profitably rebuilding its vehicle inventory, which was nearing an all-time monthly low of 13 days’ supply in March. It has increased its reconditioning capacity of vehicles to prepare for sale by roughly 60% during the past year.
he told CNBC that “Acquiring inventories, generally speaking, feel relatively straightforward to scale, but growing the recondition capacity is difficult,”. “Inventory today is certainly tighter than we would like for it to be. We’re working hard to build it back up, but we’re extremely well-positioned to do it.”
Over the past two years, the results follow a major restructuring by the company to focus on profitability rather than growth, after bankruptcy concerns when Carvana’s stock lost nearly all of its value in 2022.
Carvana ( NYSE:CVNA ) Shares have recovered since then. They had climbed roughly 67% year to date before the company reported its first-quarter results. The stock closed Wednesday up about 5% at $87.09 per share.
For Q2, Carvana ( NYSE:CVNA ) said it expects a sequential increase in its year-over-year growth rate in retail units, and a sequential increase in adjusted earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization.
Technical Outlook
Carvana ( NYSE:CVNA ) stock is trading within the overbought region with a Relative Strength Index (RSI) of 82.10 posing a threat of a trend reversal in the near term. Furthermore, the stock indicates a breakaway gap which occurs when the price gaps above a support or resistance area due to a news or fundamental.
$CVNA - As above, so below! This chart looks intriguing to me. Coming from highs of $377 to as low as below $5!!!
Then a tsunami of rebounce before and after ER. If it breaks out of the blue line on the weekly next stop could be mind baffling. In case it fails then back to the Abyss until next news or ER.
CARVANA $CVNA | RANGE BREAKOUT BEFORE EARNINGS - Apr. 23rd,CARVANA NYSE:CVNA | RANGE BREAKOUT BEFORE EARNINGS - Apr. 23rd, 2024
BUY/LONG ZONE (GREEN): $72.50 - $81.25
DO NOT TRADE/DNT ZONE (WHITE): $68.50 - $72.50
SELL/SHORT ZONE (RED): $60.00 - $68.50
Weekly: DNT
Daily: DNT
4H: DNT, lean bullish
This was requested at the end of last week but I didn't get around to it. I drew up this NYSE:CVNA chart analysis yesterday as I was entering a new trade, but wanted to wait until today to post it. I did not adjust the zones and kept them as they were yesterday, even though today price has already broken into the bullish zone, there is still room to enter new trades to the upside, or if bears want to take on some extra risk they could enter extremely early here if they expect a pullback. Earnings release next Wednesday, May 1st, 2024, and I'm looking to take advantage of possible volatility. NYSE:CVNA has broken down structure on the weekly timeframe, developed bearish structure on the daily (which is now broken as of today), and had a defined range on the 4H (which was also broken as of today).
Previous NYSE:CVNA trade idea is linked below!
This is what I would personally look at before entering trades, everything is subject to change on a daily basis and as I analyze different timeframes and ideas.
ENTERTAINMENT PURPOSES ONLY, NOT FINANCIAL ADVICE!
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CARVANA $CVNA - Feb. 15th, 2024CARVANA NYSE:CVNA - Feb. 15th, 2024
BUY/LONG ZONE (GREEN): $48.00 - $60.00
DO NOT TRADE/DNT ZONE (WHITE): $40.00 - $48.00
SELL/SHORT ZONE (RED): $25.25 - $40.00
By request. My main focus would be on the range between $40.00 - $48.00, this area has determined the trend five times, which are seen each time price touches and breaks or touches and rejects. Currently I'm looking at a bull trend that was set after a breakout of the range in the $40-$48 zone. Any data before June 2023 I was not considering. If I had to look for an upside target, assuming the trend stays bullish long term once price reaches $60, the next logical point would be $103. Due to the lack of data and because price is trading away from the start of my bullish zone, I personally would not look to enter until there is a reaction to the $60 area or a pullback to the $48/$49 zone.
Carvana Co. Class AKey arguments in support of the idea.
• Declining used car prices in the U.S. could weigh on the Company's sales.
• Carvana's high debt burden remains a significant risk.
Investment Thesis
Carvana Co. (CVNA) is one of the largest online-only used-car retailers in the U.S.
The Company performs almost all the functions a physical dealer would offer,
including buying and selling cars. Carvana is known for its network of vending
machine car dealerships, where buyers can pick up their purchased cars, avoiding
lengthy communications and checkout procedures. As of December 31, 2023, the
Company operated in 316 major U.S. cities.
Used car prices in the U.S. are trending down. The Manheim Used Vehicle Value
Index, which is one of the key indicators of used car prices, has shown monthly
drops of more than 10% since the beginning of the year against the values of the
previous year. The downward trends in prices are being observed not only in the
wholesale used car market, but also in the new car market. American automakers
in their forecasts for 2024 note that they expect some decrease in selling prices.
These assumptions suggest that Carvana's revenue may remain under pressure this
year after the Company's 2023 earnings showed a 20% y/y decline.
Carvana's cost-cutting initiatives to achieve positive operating margins may not
succeed. The Company remains unprofitable at the operating profit level, but its
growing debt burden is forcing Carvana to focus on margin expansion. As part of
its cost-cutting plan, Carvana has significantly reduced advertising spending and
optimized personnel costs, but overall overhead expenses per car sold increased to
$1,741 in the third quarter of 2023, up from $800 in the first half of 2021. The
reduction in advertising expenses per vehicle sold by more than 20% y/y in 2023
may have contributed to the decline in revenue last year, although it helped reduce
the share of total administrative expenses as part of revenue.
Carvana's high debt burden remains a major risk to the stock. We see that the
Company had $960 million on its balance sheet at the end of last year, which is
lower than the size of Carvana's adjusted net loss for the year. The Company has
nearly exhausted its ability to raise new financing through debt accumulation. On
September 11, 2023, S&P assigned its 'CCC+' credit rating to Carvana, reflecting an
increased risk of default on its obligations. Net Debt/EBITDA'2024 is currently
estimated at 14x based on FactSet's 2024 EBITDA consensus forecast. In the
coming quarters, the Company may need additional financing through the sale of
shares. This step could have a significant negative impact on the stock.
We believe that in the short term Carvana Co. stock may end up in negative zone.
We maintain a Sell rating on CVNA stock with a price target of $60. A stop-loss
order is recommended at $78.
CVNA: second round!CVNA: second round!
-Back test consolidation range after pump.
-Key level support.
-Trendline support.
-ABCD pattern.
-Golden fibo zone.
-Demand zone.
CVNA | I Like This One | Bullish DivergenceCarvana Co., together with its subsidiaries, operates an e-commerce platform for buying and selling used cars in the United States. The company's platform allows customers to research and identify a vehicle; inspect it using company's 360-degree vehicle imaging technology; obtain financing and warranty coverage; purchase the vehicle; and schedule delivery or pick-up from their desktop or mobile devices. Carvana Co. was founded in 2012 and is headquartered in Tempe, Arizona.
CVNA Daily ChartThis post is in reference to my last one.
In this chart, we can clearly see bearish divergence on the MFI which signals to me a correction to the rally we’ve been experiencing these last couple months. We can already see this small rally fizzling out after the second wave in the channel pictured above.
CVNA Weekly ChartI’ve been watching and trading CVNA for a few years now. We can see it trading in a bullish channel, however it is facing resistance at the top part of the channel. RSI is well-overbought and we are also seeing bearish divergence on the MFI which is signaling to me a correction in the near-term. Looking for support from the peak of the last rally with a price target at/around $57.
Aside from technical indicators, Carvana does not have enough cashflow to justify its near-$90 price tag. Not only considering revenue, Carvana’s egregious amount of debt is enough to consider its price irrational.
While I am bearish in the near-term on Carvana, I am still bullish in the long run. Despite their enormous debt, they have proven to be successful in being able to manage it and minimize it, while also increasing revenue.
$CVNA is ready for moving upstairsNYSE:CVNA reached bottom into intermediate growing moving.
Goal is 82.
Does not constitute a recommendation.
#furoreggs #investing #stocks #shares #idea #forecast #trading #analysis
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CVNA stock shows bullish momentum, likely to continue risingCVNA stock's momentum and bullish pattern indicate a high probability of continued upward movement. If the price experiences a dip, traders are likely to show buying interest in the 77 to 82 range. Initial price targets for the stock are estimated around the 200 and 260 zones.
Nasty H&S printing for the used car marketAs we all know the used car market continues to have it's issues, CVNA insiders started to sell this month. What do they know? We know by looking at our momentum indicators that momentum is dying and also happens to be printing out a head and shoulders pattern at key fib level. Expect and nice drop to next major support level.
