Where is Enphase Energy Moving Next?Enphase Energy NASDAQ:ENPH is coming off an excellent month of June 2021, up over 30% and 82% YTD. Now, we sit about 30-days from earnings with the street estimating an EPS of $0.42.
Is there another period of time where ENPH faced a similar situation and chart pattern? Yes, from mid-September 2020, until mid-October 2020, ENPH ran up over 63% and reached its peaks about 30-days before earnings.
Looking back at the chart could help us understand where ENPH might be heading during July 2021.
Solar and energy storage stocks have been heating up as governments push climate agendas including possible tax credits for each stage of the solar manufacturing supply chain, tax credits for homeowners to install solar power, and other possible incentives and initiatives.
Another company that has benefitted from the current environment is Generac Holdings NYSE:GNRC . They also had an amazing month of June 2021, up over 26% and 84% YTD. Sure, with GNRC the weather plays a role as they sell many generators, but they are also ramping up on their energy storage solutions just like ENPH.
ENPH has a premium micro-inverter product and a growing energy storage business. This has given many analysts reason to place a buy rating on ENPH.
Now looking back at the chart. Comparing the two time periods, then and now, you can see that after the runup in 2020, ENPH consolidated up until earnings were released, and for about 7-days thereafter. Then, there was a spike in volume setting off a bull run that finished the year of 2020 and pushed the stock even higher into 2021. This rally set a new all-time high on January 7th, then another all-time high of $229 on February 10th (right when earnings were released).
Next, we had the great tech rotation sending any stock related to technology lower over the next 90-days. ENPH hit its low of $108 on May 11th. Since reaching the May 11th low, ENPH has climbed 73%, just another 18% and ENPH will be hitting a new ATH.
Now, here's what you came for. Where is ENPH moving next? Well, if history can be our guide, and yes, history doesn't repeat, history rhymes, then we should expect ENPH to start consolidating with a mix of green and red days until earnings. One thing on the chart that is different this time around is lower volume. Now after earnings are released it's anyone's guess. A beat on earnings could push ENPH to new all-time highs and a miss could give long-term investors a great entry point on a stock currently trading at a premium.
Now I will hand it off to you. Where do you think Enphase Energy is moving next?
