EWW - Long and postedEWW is a trade I posted in the ForkTrading members area.
The Centerline was reached and the breath to the downside filled the lung to take a jump.
It's on it's way and we keep a close eye on it.
GL Forkers & P!
EWW trade ideas
UPDATE: A remake of USDMXN & EWWHi guys, thank you for the support! I will have this analysis out each weekend as well as daily updates throughout the week, if you guys like what I'm doing hit the "follow" button and you will get a notification each time I post a video or chart!
Have a great day everyone!
UPDATE: USDMXN is a MASSIVE short, minimum 20% from highHi guys, thank you for the support! I will have this analysis out each weekend as well as daily updates throughout the week, if you guys like what I'm doing hit the "follow" button and you will get a notification each time I post a video or chart!
Have a great day everyone!
61% Probability on EWW (Strangle)Yesterday We got a close above the 200 Moving average and EWW is right inside the Volume area, and right at the Point of control. So I expect two-way action between buyers and sellers, giving me a chance to make a neutral trade.
With EWW IV Rank at 57, I sold the 54/50 Strangle (30 Delta) that expires in February, to take advantage of the high volatility.
The trade:
30 Days to Expiration (2/16/2018)
Sold the 54 CAll
Sold the 50 PUTS
Credit receives $1.10 each
Max profit $110.00 for each contract
Probability of profit 61%
EWW Opening Calendar Sep15 Dec15 54 Putswww.tradingview.com
EWW top 10 assets (Operating companies in Mexico) have solid analysis. It has been outperforming EEM (Emerging Markets).
I prefer slightly more liquid options (evaluated on a % ask-bid/ premium ATM) but I like this trade and am practising trading Calendars.
The metrics are on the chart. I am basing this idea method (rough copy) on the excellent examples for this type of trade shared by user NaughtyPines. Linked one below.
The initial break even is 1.25 $125/contract. I will be happy to have the final close being in profit anything North of 20% of that (nominal target this strategy 10%).
Once we break 55.54 We are goneNo support for growth in violence thorn Mexico, no other way but down, long term Bear Market about to settle with Lopez Obrador knocking on the precidency door, so start to pile up on the ETF.
Straddle for a neutral trade on EWWWith the IV percentile over 90% we can sell premium to get a nice credit. I sold a Straddle @ 49 (sold 1 put, and 1 call with a 49 strike price) with 45 days to go to expiration.
OPENING: EWW DEC 16TH 39/45/45/50 IRON FLYPost-election, there isn't much out there exchange-traded fund wise with both high implied volatility rank/percentile and high implied volatility. This is one of them ... . (I've tried repeatedly to get into an EWW play, but just can't seem to get a fill at the mid price).
This isn't the most liquid thing in the world, so I'm going with the most liquid expiry -- the Dec 16th monthly.
Metrics:
Probability of Profit: 43%
Max Profit: $302/contract
Max Loss/Buying Power Effect: $298/contract
Break Evens: 41.98/48.02
Notes: Will look to manage for 25% max profit ... .
TRADE IDEA: EWW DEC 2ND 43.5/46.5/53.5/56.5 IRON CONDORWith a 52-week implied volatility rank of 100 and an implied volatility of 35, EWW -- the Mexican ETF, beckons for premium selling ... . Here, the iron condor brackets the ZigZag/Donchian channel indicated support/resistance at 48.22 and 54.25 nicely, with break evens for the setup above and below those marks.
Here are the metrics for the setup:
Probability of Profit: Unavailable*
Max Profit: $100/contract
Max Loss: $200/contract
Break Evens: 45.50/54.50
Notes: * -- Accurate probability of profit metrics are unavailable here in the off hours, probably due to after hours bid/ask in the underlying showing bid 44.12/ask 73.00/last 49.98. Look to manage at 50% max profit.
EWW monthly - Mexico appears to be bottomed - 10/10/2016We will keep it on the radar for the coming months, and would like to see further strength for confirmation.
Mexican Assets Pivoting on U.S. Presidential Campaign ResultsMexican Assets Pivoting on U.S. Presidential Campaign Results
28 SEPTEMBER 2016 OPTIONS
In the lead-up to the U.S. Presidential election, the impact of U.S. trade agreements with its North American neighbors has become a central point of contention between the candidates. Each party platform has a distinct strategy for handling trade relations, and the differences between those plans could have significant consequences -- in either direction -- for business in Mexico that are trying to maintain access to the U.S. market.
Given its prominence in the campaign discussions, and the country's economic ties to the U.S., the Mexican currency and Mexican stocks have been pushed around by the twists and turns of the U.S. election polling. Obviously, the American people are the most impacted by the outcome of this election. Mexico's economy might be a close second, though, and that fact has led to increased volatility for Mexican assets.
Ahead of this week's widely anticipated debate between Donald Trump and Hillary Clinton, the Mexican Peso fell to a low against the dollar. This came amid Trump's steady gain in the polls over the last few weeks, which saw the Republican nominee narrow his polling deficit to nearly a dead head as the first debate got underway. Trump's policies could impose significant roadblocks for Mexican companies selling into the U.S., and the shift in market conditions echoes that.
Following the debate however, which many media pundits called in favor of Clinton, the peso immediately rebounded.
Similarly, the iShares MSCI Mexico Capped ETF made gains following the debate This ETF tracks a basket of Mexican equities. Major components include telecommunications firm América Móvil , beverage and retail company FEMSA and the media company Grupo Televisa .
The implied volatility for EWW has itself been volatile over the past year. It's been a long election season, for the candidates, for the electorate, and for Mexican companies, who might be at the mercy of an election in another country.
While the past year has seen swings in EWW's implied volatility, the measure has been rising for most of the past several weeks. It hit a multi-month low in early August at 17.4, just after the conventions, when Trump's poll numbers were at their low. However, implied volatility bounced back as the poll trend reversed, and reached 27.3 about a week ago, as Trump's poll numbers came up to about even with Clinton's. This was the highest mark since June.
There has been a slight dip lately, but levels remain near multi-month highs.
The ATM Straddle premium for EWW is relatively constrained, but it is an ETF and less susceptible to sharp near-term moves than individual stocks. At the time of this post, the straddle premium for the October 7 expiration is $1.59, or 3.3%. It's $3.28 (6.7%) for the November 4 expiration -- just before the November 8 election. The November 18 expiration (just after the U.S. election), has a $4.10 straddle premium, or 8.4%.
marketchameleon.com
TRADE IDEA: EWW NOV 18TH 46 SHORT PUTI've never played this particular broad market ETF, but it beats trading SPY et al. here, particularly since you can get a 1.00 in credit out of a short put in an sub-$50 underlying ... .
Metrics:
Probability of Profit: 76%
Max Profit: $101/contract
Max Loss: Undefined (it would be $4499 if the ETF went to zero and you did absolutely nothing)
Break Even: 44.99
Notes: I'm not going to be putting on a trade in this, since I think there's downside risk associated with U.S. elections. However, at the very least, it's worth watching here. The IV and therefore the premium is higher here than in SPY, IWM, QQQ, and DIA ... . The downside is that it is not quite as liquid as those instruments.
Mexico short term viewA closer look at Mexico shows a well defined trading range over the past 2 months. That short term range should soon encounter a long term trend line (orange). Expect to buy that bounce.
Mexico getting ready to break out20 year uptrend from Mexico is about to test the trendline. It is nearing a break point, expect it to break higher. Should be a good buying opportunity.
EWW Clasical braketrough patternSet enter point when market is bellow current resistance level and set target against previous high.
EWW ShortAMEX:EWW Is not necessarily highly correlated with the SP US30 , etc
Now are apparently immersed in a brake of him downtrend, and this is acting like a support line and meaby is a little megaphone in development ; if we think positive (maybe a little innocent) can expect a reboot to the 60 level, but the fear ambient can make drop from the 53-60 zone to the strong diagonal support around the 44.8-46 zone.
I wait for the turndown or the acceleration... patience.
the bigpic:
