FXI trade ideas
FXI weekly - head and shoulders breakout - 2/15/2017looks like a classical head and shoulders breakout. 40 weeks MA is pointing up. RSI and MACD all look good. In the past it had several breakouts that gained anywhere from 10 to 40 percent.
CHINA APPROACHING SHORT LEVELToo many levels aligning to not take notice of this low risk short opportunity. FXI approaching marked resistance at the $37-37.14 range. Converging trendline resistance, round number $37 and 0.618 Fib retracement. Waiting to initiate short at $37 even.
OPENING: FXI JAN 27TH 32.5/35.5/35.5/38 IRON FLYOut of a Brazil play and into a China play ... .
Metrics:
Max Profit: $153/contract
Max Loss: $147/contract
Break Evens: 33.97/37.03
Notes: Will look to manage this at 25% max.
FXI OppertunityChina had a monstrous collapse in 2015, after that rally it is now showing some short term weakness. The problems they face are currency, slowing growth, and house prices.
I believe that house price may effect stock prices but it shouldn't be something that effects the whole market because the problem is evident, when we know about the problem we protect against it making the problem minor and we can see that being addressed.
The slow growth is concerning but anything over 3% is still faster than we will get here and they still have plenty of room for interest rate cuts and stimulus. Much of their debt is held in their own currency so that is manageable.
The biggest concern is there currency situation, however once again everyone knows about it therefore it is being addressed thus not an issue.
Technically there is a large invHS for a long set up. This is a position for a couple years to trade around.
Is china going to cause some trouble for equities in 2017?This is interesting chart . Thought to sure. We are hearing news about dow 20000 everywhere. Market is very optimistic and bulls are all over the place. Looking at china etf ( you can check index if you want), looks like some trouble is coming.
Weekly chart tested the TL and got rejected. Price is also breaking kijun sen. There was also 200 sma there and price turned down.
Daily chart is breaking a key supp lvl. Future cloud turned down.
Liquidity is think now but when traders come back in jan, lets see what happens here. If china rolls over, we'll get some nice moves in aussie crosses too. Right now I am just watching it but my bias is bearish . Thought to share. Stay tuned for more posts on monthly charts later this year.
Have a happy and safe christmas. Enjoy some time with friends and family.
FXI channel breakdownWill FXI consolidate ? I am long term bearish waiting for the opportunity to strike.
Daily FXI not as bullish as the Weekly/Monthly.We ended last week with a gravestone Doji that bounced off the 100. Bulls need it to close above the 34.18 point. The MACD looks good for this. However, we are very oversold. If the 100 ends up being resistance, I would watch for a pullback to 30.70 which is a very strong weekly support line and the 50SMA is sitting there as well. If it were to fall below there, the Monthly have a very strong support at 28.00.
Bullish Setup on FXI Weeklys, watch for confirmation at 34.18Last week we broke thru a descending trend line with a bullish candle. We have a very strong weekly support at 30.79. If we can get a close above 34.25 or so, there is a gap to fill at 35.18 then things will point to the 200 at 38.02.
