Biggest trade of the yearI officially hit my biggest trade of the year in the last two weeks of December. I had a huge amount of conviction on this trade and it happened fast. 60% in less than a month. 2024 will be special.
HOOD trade ideas
A stock in the makingSince May of 2022 this stock has been trading horizontal seemingly forming a base for the next bull run of the market. Robinhood will likely not be going anywhere for awhile, so I do like this as the bottom after its IPO. The red resistance line is pure speculation at this point as we will need further data to confirm this. The resistance lines are shallowing in angle and are ready to turn in the upward direction though. It could possibly touch the green support line one more time before turning up for the long haul though, depending on what our market does in the short term. overall I do feel as if this stock is in buy territory at the moment for a long term position. After another bounce up I will move my red resistance line accordingly. Then I feel as if the next dip will set the support line to an upward angle as well. After that we shall be off to the races so to speak. I am not a financial advisor though so trade with your own decisions. This is also not a paid advertisement for the company. I just like the chart.
HOOD: Price is Close To a Key Support Area $6.8 - $7.6HOOD: Price is Close To a Key Support Area $6.8 - $7.6
I have shared the HOOD analysis two times over the past months and in both analysis
the price reacted very well.
The bullish movement started from the same area where we are currently focused between $6.8 - $7.6
Price can react taking past reactions into account.
It seems that the market players are well positioned there
considering how the price reacts near the support zone.
Thanks and good luck!
Robin Hood- Ready for the pump?Robin Hood- Ready for the pump?
As you can see, there is a falling wedge in a acumulation area , we need a broken trend line with a broken reistance confirmation.
Robinhood (NASDAQ: HOOD) Announces UK Launch
Robinhod (NASDAQ: HOOD) Chief Executive Officer Vlad Tenev recently said that he does not think that the payment for order flow (PFOF) model of market-maker routing that the firm incorporates in the United States is under any type of threat.
This would be despite suggestions from various consumer trading advocates as well as regulators for a complete ban on the PFOF model.
In statements shared with CNBC, Tenev reportedly defended the PFOF model, noting that it is inherently “here to stay.” He was making a reference to PFOF as it currently exists in the US, where the practice has been made legal and is well-regulated.
PFOF is essentially the practice of routing trades via market-makers such as Citadel Securities in exchange for a portion of the profits.
The business model has helped trading companies such as Robinhood with lowering commissions all the way down to zero, making it more economical for consumers to invest in a large range of stocks.
PFOF has been considered controversial due to the apparent conflict of interest it can potentially create between the broker and customers.
Industry professionals claim that brokers have an incentive or motivation to direct order flow to market makers providing PFOF arrangements over the best interests of customers.
At present, PFOF is banned in the United Kingdom, where Robinhood revealed its plans to launch operations (this past Thursday).
Notably, the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) had looked into the possibility of placing a ban on PFOF due to concerns regarding the practice, however, the regulator decided not to do so, meanwhile, the EU has placed a complete ban on PFOF.
PFOF reportedly makes up for a relatively small amount of Robinhood’s total revenues, Tenev calims, and most of its earnings come from net interest income which is obtained from cash in user account balances.
Robinhood Wyckoff Accumulation (Fakeout Chart)This is an alternative Robinhood Wyckoff Accumulation path inspired by the SNAP Wyckoff Accumulation chart that I will post later. Enjoy!
$HOOD Wyckoff AccumulationRobinhood seems to be following Wyckoff Accumulation Schematic #2. Let's see if we find new lows before rocketing back up. Possible 80-100% move over the next year.
Possible Morning Star ReversalRobinhood looks like it's forming a morning star reversal. Monitor next weeks candle to confirm.
HOOD at a discount area of a rangeThis setup provides clear invalidation below discount area at 8.00$ with a take profit level at range premium of 12.00$, which gives 50% move. It can also be a tripple bottom with a neckline at 12.00$, which if flipped opens a target of 18.00$. I’m entering it here and leaving room to DCA lower.
HOOD |Robinhood| Purchase zone from $ 4.75 and belowEntering a long position.
Buying off a tool from $ 4.75 and below.
After consolidation at the level of $ 4.75, the instrument can give an excellent profit
Hood updateI did layer on more calls on the ARK news adding more hood shares. Alphabet did sell their remaining shares which might have caused that large red candle. The HV has plummeted to very low levels along with RSI which makes me believe this is oversold. First sell target is 9.45$, we are approaching the daily gap and I believe this can close very quickly with this bullish CPI print.
Hood GAP playI entered this hood call setup during the blood yesterday, the dotted green line is my entry. Frist profit take zone is the dashed green and the bag will be sold at 9.58ish. This selloff seems irrational to me, the market is so emotional these days.
Hood dump on earnings, potential gapI did enter this trade with call setups, this daily gap is a decent size and the bollanger bands are compressing nicely. The RSI has a general uptrend, the dashed green lines are important areas of historical price action. The upside is about 3x the downside on this setup.
Robinhood Markets - TIME TO BUYThis chart its a weekly one.
Just starting to acumulate on spot , first buy at 8.4, the next ones will be at the supports lines.
Good Buy Stocks > $HOODAfter losing nearly 90% of it's high, NASDAQ:HOOD is currently trading close to all-time lows. This could make for a great buy and hold opportunity, whilst some patience may be needed to wait for ideal target zones.
Higher lows are observed after bottoming out at $6, indicating that the bottom is most likely in for NASDAQ:HOOD . In other words a spot entry here has a really low risk and high reward setup.
Good-Buy STOCKS: HOODHi Traders, Investors and Speculators of Charts📈📉
After losing nearly 90% of it's high, NASDAQ:HOOD is currently trading close to all-time lows. This could make for a great buy and hold opportunity, whilst some patience may be needed to wait for ideal target zones.
Higher lows are observed after bottoming out at $6, indicating that the bottom is most likely in for HOOD. In other words a spot entry here has a really low risk and high reward setup.
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NASDAQ:HOOD
Double Buy Signal For HOODRobinhood has a double buy signal by market scripters very accurate buy and sell indicator. So accurate that they charge a monthly subscription to have access to this script. MACD also shows growing bullish divergence and the elliot wave shows that wave 2 is in process and can continue Monday. Looking to trade the wave with options calls and make a quick profit.
HOOD Ready to Break to the UpsideBullish divergence on the last all time low and it has slowly been climbing up on the weekly. Looking for the first 2 targets to hit before retracing and retesting the breakout. If the market melts up, HOOD is going to be a big benefactor.
$HOOD Profitability Is Within ReachRobinhood Markets, Inc (NASDAQ: HOOD) is currently benefiting from the high interest rate environment since its interest revenue has increased 278% from last year. Furthermore, Since the brokerage is expecting a seasonal increase in its other revenues, that coupled with the net interest revenue growth, will push it over to profitability – beating its EPS estimates of -$0.01 according to our projections. With the brokerage set to release its Q2 earnings report on August 2 after-hours, going long on HOOD stock ahead of its earnings may be a profitable decision.
HOOD Fundamentals
Q1 Financials
Robinhood posted $441 million in revenue in Q1 2023, which represented a 47% YoY increase. While transaction revenue declined by 5% and other revenues stayed relatively flat at $24 million, the brokerage’s net interest revenues increased by almost 280%. The increase in net interest revenue can be mainly attributed to the high-interest rate environment that gives Robinhood better margins and the steady monthly net deposits it has been seeing.
While the $511 million net loss may turn off some investors, the increase in net loss is mainly due to a one-time expense of $485 million related to the 2021 Founders Award Cancellation. Without the added $485 million Robinhood would’ve only realized around $26 million in net loss which would be almost a 97% YoY decline and would’ve seen it close to profitability.
Robinhood also ended the Quarter with no debt, and while its current ratio has been declining over the past five quarters, its current assets can still cover its current liabilities.
With that in mind, Robinhood’s current liabilities have been increasing QoQ since Q1 2022. In Q1 2022, the brokerage had $11.5 billion in current liabilities. Out of its current liabilities, $7.1 billion were payables to users which are free credit balances from users’ uninvested deposits attributed to users as a result of settled trades and other security-related transactions. The company’s current liabilities skyrocketed in Q1 2023 to $20.6 billion despite payables to users declining to $4.9 million.
While this may seem like a negative thing, it is important to note that the increase in current liabilities is the result of the company reporting $11.4 billion in user cryptocurrencies safeguarding obligation which is required for the brokerage to report since it is safeguarding cryptocurrencies due to the launch of its crypto wallet in April 2022. In fact, this obligation increased from $8.4 billion at the beginning of 2023 which is a good sign that Robinhood’s crypto wallet product is seeing more users.
Q2 Forecast
Robinhood’s current EPS analyst estimate is around -$0.01, and we are projecting that it can beat this EPS estimate. The brokerage’s management forecasted its net interest revenue to be $223 million in Q2 and its other revenues to increase by $30 million due to a seasonal increase in Q2, putting it around $56 million, which only leaves transaction revenue unknown.
In April and May, Robinhood saw 11.5 million and 10.6 million monthly active users respectively, which adds up to an average of 11.05 million monthly active users. We can use the average monthly active users to estimate the transaction revenue for Robinhood. Apart from Q3 2022 when the brokerage has seen above average equity trading volume, Robinhood’s average transaction revenue per MAU grew in a smooth, linear fashion.
From the chart, we can forecast the average transaction revenue per MAU to be around $18.7 which adds up to a transaction revenue projection of $206 million. That said, the lower trading volume in April and May compared to Q1 may influence the average transaction revenue per MAU, but that is still to be seen.
Quarter Monthly Average Users (million) Average Transaction Revenue Per MAU Transaction Revenue (million)
Q1 2022 15.90 $13.71 $218.00
Q2 2022 14.00 $14.43 $202.00
Q3 2022 12.20 $17.05 $208.00
Q4 2022 11.40 $16.32 $186.00
Q1 2023 11.80 $17.54 $207.00
Q2 2023 *11.05 *$18.68 *$206.38
This means that Robinhood’s total revenue projection should be around $485 million, a more than 50% YoY increase, after adding the management’s forecast for net interest revenue of $223 million and other revenue of $56 million. Furthermore, since Robinhood already went below its OpEx excluding SBC range estimates, I’m going to use the lower end of its OpEx guidance, which is around $355 million. Adding the $122 million, which represents the midpoint of the management SBC estimates in its Q1 earnings call, would see the total operating expenses reach $477 million. That means that Robinhood would realize $8 million in net income and record an EPS of $0.01.
All in millions except EPS
Revenue $485
Operating Expenses $477
Net Income $8
Outstanding Shares 903
EPS $0.01
Risks
Robinhood’s monthly active users have been declining for the past 5 months and have been seeing an overall downward trend in its YoY monthly active users growth.
While Robinhood hasn’t seen its effect on its revenues yet due to the incredible growth of its net interest revenues, when interest rates start going down again in 2024, it will pose a problem for Robinhood since its net interest revenues will have lower margins. That means Robinhood will have to grow its monthly active users if it wants to maintain its current level of revenue.
Technical Analysis
HOOD stock is trading in a bullish trend as it is trading in an upward channel. Looking at the indicators, the stock is above the 200, 50, and 21 MAs which is a bullish indication. However, it is worth noting that the stock is currently testing the 21 MA support. Meanwhile, the RSI is neutral at 58 and the MACD is neutral as well.
As for the fundamentals, HOOD stock has a significant upcoming catalyst in its Q2 earnings on August 2 after-hours. Given that the brokerage may post a profit according to our projections, the stock may soar. For this reason, investors could wait for the stock to retest the lower trendline to enter long positions ahead of the brokerage’s Q2 earnings.
HOOD Forecast
Robinhood had an overall good Q1, with the company reducing its operating expenses prior to SBC and being close to achieving break even if we excluded the one-time payment of $485 million. Furthermore, the brokerage is seeing incredible net interest revenue growth and expects a $30 million seasonal increase in other revenues. Based on this, and our projections, the brokerage may be on track to post a profitable quarter, which is why going long on HOOD stock may be a profitable investment.
HOOD: Pullback to $12.25 would be healthy for next leg up 💵 The 50 EMA is crossing over the 200 EMA creating a beautiful Golden Cross. A great BUY signal...the downside is this crossover oftentimes creates impulsive candlesticks...i view this as two exposed electrical lines coming in contact and spewing sparks...so long as the position of the 50 EMA on your Daily chart is creeping higher than the 200 EMA...do not fret the fireworks show...the Golden Cross is going to happen
Since Hood exited the triangle pattern it has propelled upwards using 3 channels...we have dropped from the strongest channel to the 2nd strongest...but this is the original channel we exited the triangle from June 14th. We are still within a position a position of strength 💪
ONLY a break below the support of the 3rd channel would cause me serious concerns...too many institutional Buyers are loading up on HOOD so i anticipate an attempted shake out.
Just HOLD until the charts say otherwise...
HOOD : DIAMOND HANDS REQUIRED THIS WEEK 🔹
The 50 EMA is crossing over the 200 EMA this week...I notice a lot of impulsive sporadic candle movements during this set-up...Dont let this shake your position!! GL.
