IWM trade ideas
IWM set to take a leg down. IWM (russell 2k ETF) has been stuck in a ranging rectangle consolidation pattern for like a year. Everyone can see it, it's definitely no secret. This is why I think the last bull spike above resistance failed and was sold off; it trapped a lot of people who assumed it was an upward breakout.
Anyhow, this simple mockup just adds more bad juju, as you can see it's formed a descending triangle pattern in addition to the 200SMA now being resistance. Both of these are very bearish. I am shorting IWM simply too many factors against it....with these two just dumping fuel onto the fire. We might see a bounce at support, yes, but with each bounce lately has came less and less volume. Im interpreting this as the bulls losing confidence, while at the same time the declining trend line that makes the "descending" part of the triangle clearly shows the bears are jumping in earlier and earlier. I think it's just a matter of time now before we formally break the support of the bottom of not only the triangle, but the rectangle bottom support line just below it.
It was a good ride!
Russel Wyckoff distribution phase DIWM looks like it is about spend the next week or so completing Phase D of Wyckoff distribution, a test of the resistance overhead seems likely followed by a subsequent fall off into Phase E downtrend, the gap down to 163 seems like a likely PT by all metrics, including Fib .786 retrace between what I would consider the last 2 major pivots.
Opened (IRA): IWM March 4th 185 Short Put... for a 2.50 credit.
Comments: Sold premium right at the close in the expiry nearest 45 days to emulate dollar cost averaging into small caps.
Holistically, I've been using IWM for shorter duration trades (~45 days until expiry) and SPY for longer duration ones (since it doesn't pay as well as a function of buying power effect), and then coupling that with a longer-dated short delta hedge or hedges. (See, e.g., Post Below). I'm still net delta long, just not as long as I would be were I to be all short put without some kind of short delta aspect.
Time to short the Russell 2000 ETF IWM, and here's why.Here is a chart of the entire IWM ranging behavior over the past like 9-10 months. You can clearly see the resistance and support lines. The top resistance line also coincides with the R1 monthly pivot resistance line.
Below is the OBV with the same ranging behavior over the same time span. Obviously, volume should confirm price.....and up until recently it more or less has, also ranging up and down between the support and resistance lines drawn on the OBV indicator itself.
My point is...... look at the far right, where the purple rectangle boxes are. See the problem? OBV has already plowed downward well out of the rectangle and below the support line. Notice how it also never confirmed the prior IWM break out of the range. It was a leading indicator there that the break out would fail.....and it did.
Now it's clearly indicating that IWM is going to blow right through that rigid support line it's bounced off of many times before. My money is betting on that it's right.
$IWM Key Levels & Analysis & Targets $IWM Key Levels & Analysis & Targets
Well, here comes that 201
Death cross on the daily
Lot’s of resistance to the up side
GL, y’all…
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I usually trade both ways, but lately I’ve been focusing more to the downside because of how high the market is. It makes more sense to sell puts right now, and I’m usually at Target 2 or 3.
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I am not your financial advisor, but I will happily answer questions and analyze to the best of my ability but ultimately the risk is on you. Check out my ideas, but also do your own due diligence.
I am not a bull. I am not a bear. I just see what I see in the charts and I don’t pay too much attention to the noise in the news.
If you want me to analyze any stock or ETF just leave me a comment and I’ll do it if I can. (If I have time)
Have fun, y’all!!
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IWM Double BottomPrice has recently twice bounced off support at around $211 forming a double bottom. This signifies a reversal of the prior downtrend; the new uptrend, thus far, seems to be quite strong. Take most profits at $216.50 where, according to Fibonacci levels, we could see some resistance. If price breaks out above that it may be worth holding a few runners with a trailing stop. I would place a stop loss at $213; this number doesn't have much technical significance but with this particular setup I'm looking for price to shoot straight up in a relatively short period of time and a correction below the 213 level would invalidate this goal.
Opening (IRA): IWM February 25th 193 Short Put... for a 2.09 credit.
Comments: Emulating dollar cost averaging into small caps via a 17 delta short put in the contract nearest 45 days until expiry. Currently, the highest 30-day implied volatility broad market exchange-traded fund on the board with 30-day at 27.0% (although QQQ comes in a close second at 26.5%).
IWM Put Credit Spread (see related) into a ICIWM continued to fall today, so I decided to look on the call side to turn this into an Iron Condor.
Why?
1. Condors do not increase margin over a spread
2. IWM has been range bound
3. Large cushion past 2 resistance points
4. Additional Credit recieved
Opened Feb 2nd 236/238 IC for a 0.22 cent credit.
IWM - is stochastic warning of a major support break?IWM has been rangebound for almost one year now. Price was around highs of 170 before the "Covid drop." The 212 area is strong support, but it may break soon. Since price broke out of the upper resistance and fell right back into range, a break of support may soon follow.
Let me explain how I use stochastic %K warning signals, which usually lead price movement. My custom setting is 10-period %K and 7-period %D (I do not use D-slow), which I find to work well for my day and short swing trades. When %K (blue line) drops from above 80 to under 20 in 2-3 candles, it warns of more selling, and the corresponding price candles are usually innocuous. Usually I look for price to bounce first and then make a significant drop, as happened at the end of October (white oval). %K gave a warning signal and was followed by a quick reaction bounce before a larger selloff. Sometimes, as is happening now, %K will give a warning and it is followed by lower RSI and continued selling. This signal does not work 100% of the time, but I use it regularly with high success to enter long option trades. Also, the same is true in the upwards direction; a sharp rise in %K from under 20 to over 80 signals a stock will soon make a significant move up.
On 6 Jan I bought two put positions when IWM was 218-219: 21Jan 215 strike and 18Feb 210 strike. With markets dropping sharply right now, wait for a good entry. IWM should retest 212 and if it bounces up again instead of breaking support then I have plenty of time to exit Feb puts without a big loss.