LEN trade ideas
Real Estate: Further Trouble Ahead until Bottom January 2025#ichimoku #realestate
Monthly Chart
1. Touched Top of Major Trend Line December 2021
2. Resistance at Top of Trend Line
3. Lower High/Lower Low Bear Channel
3. Ichimoku Death Cross
4. Kumo Cloud Flat
5. Target 45.13 January 2025
6. Ichimoku Time Theory Confluence - 9 Period + 26 period
Weekly Chart
1. Stochastic Death Cross
RectanglePrice appears to be bound by two horizontal trendlines.
Earnings 12-14 AMC.
I hear the talking heads speaking of lowered mortgage rates, but I did not dig in to what I heard.
I think I do better if I do not hear them sometimes (o: They continuously talk about what the Fed is planning to do with rates all day long, and I do not think they know anymore than we do. LOL I doubt even Powell knows for sure.
It is like a few weeks ago, the housing bubble was supposed to bust and not it is not?
Nothing ceases to amaze me.
Neutral pattern until broken.
No recommendation.
Which way is LEN headed?Appears that Lennar is headed from bearish to bullish trend, however it did not cross the August high resistance levels. Will LEN check back to the 150 day moving average? or will it break trend and cross the resistance level. I'm leaning to checking back based on macro. Higher rates and poor customer traffic will hurt top line and/or margins. Builders are having to provide incentives (buy points, discount, etc) in order to drive sales.
LEN 9/22/2022LEN
Daily chart analysis
LEN is currently in a downtrend under the 200 ema
After reaching low of 64.00, pulled back and broke above resistance level at 81.00
The breakout is deemed a failed breakout after price falls back below 81.00
Price has the followed by making a series of lower lows creating a downtrend line
Price is currently at resistance from down trendline, an area of value.
This is my cue to enter trade short.
Entry: 75.81
Stop loss: 81.92
Target: 64.00, +15.58%, 1.93 RR ratio
LENNAR appears overboughtBased on historical movement, the peak could occur anywhere in the larger red box. The final targets are in the green boxes. The pending bottom should occur within the larger green box as has been the historical case. Half of all movement has ended in the smaller green box. In this instance, the signal indicated SELL on July 21, 2022 with a closing price of 82.08.
If this instance is successful, that means the stock should decline to at least 81.65 which is the top of the larger green box. Three-quarters of all successful signals have the stock decline 2.218% from the signal closing price. This percentage is the top of the smaller green box. Half of all successful signals have the stock decline 4.588% which is the end point of the black dotted arrow. One-quarter of all successful signals have the stock decline 7.85% from the signal closing price which is the bottom of the smaller green box. The maximum decline on record would see a move to the bottom of the larger green box. These are the same concepts for the levels in the red boxes as well.
The ends/vertical sides of the boxes are determined in a similar fashion. The trough of the decline can occur as soon as the next trading bar after signal close, while the max decline occurs within the limit of study at 40 trading bars after the signal. A 0.5% decline must occur over the next 40 trading bars in order to be considered a success. Three-quarters of successful movement occur after at least 11 trading bars; half occur within 23 trading bars, and one-quarter require at least 35 trading bars.
The black dotted arrow represents median historical movement. Medians are a good metric, but they are just one of many I use when forecasting future movement.
As always, the stock could decline the very next bar after the signal without looking back (therefore the red boxes would not come into play) or the stock may never decline (and the green boxes may never come into play).
6/5/22 LENLennar Corporation ( NYSE:LEN )
Sector: Consumer Durable (Homebuilding)
Market Capitalization: 23.216B
Current Price: $80.19
Breakout price: $81.10
Buy Zone (Top/Bottom Range): $79.55-$69.45
Price Target: $99.10-$102.40
Estimated Duration to Target: 237-240d
Contract of Interest: $LEN 1/20/23 85c
Trade price as of publish date: $8.50/contract
LEN - broke major supportEntered short at 88 with initial stop loss @ 92.50.
Near term target of 81.50 (38.2% fib retracemnt of the major trend up from Mar 2020's covid low to it's top in Nov 2021. Should stock continues lower, then possibly next targrt @ 71 (50% fib retracement as well at pre-covid high in Feb 2020)
Disclaimer: This is just my own analysis and opinion for discussion and is NOT a trade advice. Please your own due diligence and trade according to your own risk tolerance and don't forget that money management is important! Thank you.