Has Lennar Laid the Foundation for a Breakout?Homebuilders have emerged as one of the standout industries in the post-Covid world. Plenty of technology names, like Zoom Video Communications , benefited from lockdowns. But it’s also boosted housing in a few ways. First, surveys show millennials finally want to buy single-family suburban homes. Second, interest rates are low. Third, credit-card spending data has shown DIY chains like Home Depot and Lowe’s thriving as most traditional retailers struggle.
Lennar is the No. 2 homebuilder by market cap (behind D.R. Horton ), and the most active in terms of average daily options volume. The company’s earnings and revenue both beat estimates last week. Perhaps more importantly, management had the confidence to reinstitute guidance. That prompted several analysts to raise their price targets.
LEN is in an interesting place technically after rallying sharply between mid-March and mid-May. It’s been consolidating above its 200-day simple moving average (SMA) and today is trying to make a higher low along a trendline starting in early April. Meanwhile resistance has remained around $65.50, resulting in a bullish ascending triangle.
LEN’s 50-day SMA is also moving up toward its 200-day SMA. That creates the potential for a “Golden Cross” within the next 10 sessions. It also had a bullish outside candle on the weekly chart (not shown) last week – a potential sign of “animal spirits in the house.”
It’s usually a good idea to wait for breakouts, but the fundamental argument for homebuilders is strong. Traders may want to enter with last week’s low as risk management and consider adding on a breakout through resistance.
LEN trade ideas
Monthly Chart: Pull back?It is at resistance now, can it pull back to 40-35 range in May? If it closes below that red line for April, then it can pull back.
Sell after break the low of the last candleshort : 70.22
stop : if daily candle close above 72.24
Tp1 : 67.65
Tp2 : 65
LEN - looks like rates are headed lower?LEN is telling me rates are gonna stay low and perhaps go lower for a while. Last time we were waiting for pullback headed in the end of 2019. The new year has seen nothing but a tear. I'm convinced that FED will need to take action as rates start to test lows. Stock looks great but should pull back to channel before next leg up. 2020 may be very good year for homebuilders. No positions.
YOU KNOW THE FUCKING DRILLIncrease in Div, building aint slowing down. Int rates low..money is cheaper, people need living space. Cities are expanding exponentially.
LEN - Big Beat, Big Spike, Big Retrace?Lennar had a great quarter and as long as the consumer in the United States stays strong and interest rates stay low, they will continue to do well.
So what gives? Why did it retrace today? Yo be honest, I don’t know but what I DO know is that I would be very interested at the 52-54 level if the price does not break up above the yellow counter trend line. If we get a weekly close above the trend line I will initiate the position and ride it back to ATH’s.
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Lennar surges on earnings Stock well below its average price target among analysts $66.93
Short interest 4.9%.
Very reasonable 9.45 P/e Ratio.
Mr. Miller earnings call transcript "As we head into 2020, we expect our fiscal 2020 deliveries to be in the range of 54,000 - 55,000 homes, homebuilding gross margin percentage to be in the range of 20.5% - 21.0% and our cash flows to continue to accelerate as we continue to refine our overall land program. With only $600 million of senior notes due in 2020, we will opportunistically deploy excess cash flow to repurchase additional debt and return capital to shareholders."
Net earnings of $674.3 million, or $2.13 per diluted share, compared to $796.1 million, or $2.42 per diluted share (Q4 2018 included $0.58 per diluted share related to gain on sale of Rialto investment and asset management platform, partially offset by non-recurring expenses)
Deliveries of 16,420 homes – up 16%
New orders of 13,089 homes – up 23%; new orders dollar value of $5.2 billion – up 23%
Backlog of 15,577 homes – compared to 15,616 homes; backlog dollar value of $6.3 billion – down 4%
Revenues of $7.0 billion – up 8%
Homebuilding operating earnings of $892.5 million, compared to $806.7 million
Financial Services operating earnings (net of noncontrolling interests) of $81.2 million, compared to $57.6 million
Multifamily operating earnings (net of noncontrolling interests) of $4.8 million, compared to $33.0 million
Lennar Other operating earnings (net of noncontrolling interests) of $10.8 million, compared to loss of $48.5 million
Homebuilding cash and cash equivalents of $1.2 billion
Homebuilding debt to total capital of 32.8%
Retired $600 million of homebuilding senior notes
Repurchased 1.7 million shares for $98.2 million
Company profile
Lennar Corp. is a homebuilder company, which engages in the provision of real estate related financial and investment management services. It operates through the following segment: Lennar Financial Services, Lennar Multifamily and Rialto. The Lennar Financial Services segment focuses on the mortgage financing, title insurance and closing services for both buyers of homes and others. The Lennar Multifamily develops, constructs and manages property of multifamily rental. The Rialto segment involves in raising, investing, and managing third-party capital, originating, and selling into securitizations commercial mortgage loans. The company was founded by Gene Fisher and Arnold Paul Rosen in 1954 and is headquartered in Miami, FL.
$LEN Possible trade in Lennar CorpEntry level $56 = Target price $60 = Stop loss $55
Stock is currently sitting on strong support and has a nice reversal in yesterdays session.
Currently has a average buy rating and a $85 target among analysts.
Very reasonable 9 P/E
Sector has fallen out of favor in recent months as capital runs back into high risk sectors.
Lennar Corp. is a homebuilder company, which engages in the provision of real estate related financial and investment management services. It operates through the following segment: Lennar Financial Services, Lennar Multifamily and Rialto. The Lennar Financial Services segment focuses on the mortgage financing, title insurance and closing services for both buyers of homes and others. The Lennar Multifamily develops, constructs and manages property of multifamily rental. The Rialto segment involves in raising, investing, and managing third-party capital, originating, and selling into securitizations commercial mortgage loans. The company was founded by Gene Fisher and Arnold Paul Rosen in 1954 and is headquartered in Miami, FL.
LENNicely moved out of cup and handle and trading above upper trend line. Support at around 59.50 range if it breaks the trend. It might trade side ways and form bull flag on daily. Will closely watch
LEN movementsPossible triangle with some sideways movement back from Feb-Mar 2018 (Black dash). Trend line from July of this year (blue line).
Daily- RSI Overbought, Stoch Overbought, Nice Volume the last 2 days from good earnings, candle closed outside of BB.
4 HR- RSI Overbought, Stoch Overbought and looking like a potential crossover coming, Last 4 hrs of trading was about on par with higher levels of trades over the last few weeks... Nothing special. Candle closed as a positive doji outside of the BB.
1 HR- RSI dropping from overbought, Stoch Overbought with a crossover looking imminent, MACD weakening and looking to go south barring "news".
Possible for a little more room to the upside during risk free friday. Today's tail topping right at the top of the possible triangle.
This is not advice.
LEN - Reaching or ready to fly?Been watching this for about a month. Looks like it is being accumulated. Sinking interest rates in 2019 is reason for rise this year. But if interest rates keep sinking and economy is slowing down can't see why this would gain traction. This hit $5 ten years ago when recession hit. Wouldn't want to a bad earnings report here. What do you think?
Lennar Corp has trouble meeting demand, LONG LONG LONG Quit simply homebuilders are a safe investment, trading at extremely low P/E ratio's while in turn new home sales are near a 12 year high.
The reduction in interest rates have had a immediate effect on demand, to the point that demand is outpacing supply.
First time buyers are back in the market making the big jump when conditions are so favourable.
The refinancing of existing finance is also increasing demand as others decide to upscale.
P/E RATIO 9.6
SHORT INTEREST 4.5%
AVERAGE ANALYSTS RATING BUY
AVERAGE ANALYSTS PRICE TARGET $60
COMPANY PROFILE
Lennar Corp. is a homebuilder company, which engages in the provision of real estate related financial and investment management services. It operates through the following segment: Lennar Financial Services, Lennar Multifamily and Rialto. The Lennar Financial Services segment focuses on the mortgage financing, title insurance and closing services for both buyers of homes and others. The Lennar Multifamily develops, constructs and manages property of multifamily rental. The Rialto segment involves in raising, investing, and managing third-party capital, originating, and selling into securitizations commercial mortgage loans. The company was founded by Gene Fisher and Arnold Paul Rosen in 1954 and is headquartered in Miami, FL
Lennar Corp Breaking out.Highly dependent on consumer sentiment and interest rates, LEN has benefited recently from the interest rate culling which looks set to continue, adding to the stimulus is the extremely low unemployment rate in the USA which in turn adds to demand on new housing. We see $62 as a possible upside target.
Lennar Corp. is a homebuilder company, which engages in the provision of real estate related financial and investment management services. It operates through the following segment: Lennar Financial Services, Lennar Multifamily and Rialto. The Lennar Financial Services segment focuses on the mortgage financing, title insurance and closing services for both buyers of homes and others. The Lennar Multifamily develops, constructs and manages property of multifamily rental. The Rialto segment involves in raising, investing, and managing third-party capital, originating, and selling into securitizations commercial mortgage loans. The company was founded by Gene Fisher and Arnold Paul Rosen in 1954 and is headquartered in Miami, FL.
