LOW - Excellent Risk x ReturnLOW chart interpretation:
The previously disorganized Fibo clouds have gradually aligned themselves, providing favorable support for the candles' evolution. The compactness of the Fibo clouds from different timeframes signals the direction and strength towards the first target to be reached
It's worth noting that there's a reasonable chance that the candles will be blocked at the first target. This could be due to the slow movement of the Fibo Cloud on the weekly chart, which could result in a block. That's why I've set a profit-taking position there. Once we pass this risk zone, the candles will have everything they need to develop towards the second target and the subsequent bonus targets whose locations merely mirror the last top.
When the first target is reached, the stop loss must be moved to the position where the entry was made. The aim of this action is to protect the result achieved and ensure that there is enough time to pursue the remaining targets with a reduced risk of losing the trade.
The use of risk management, an integral part of this method, has been fundamental to achieving the desired results.
Risk/Return 8.93 (possibility of large premium)
LOW trade ideas
Strategy: Butterfly Continuation Failure. This strategy is intended to be a method to help to differentiate a pullback from reversal.
Here we're using the butterfly pattern which is a continuation pattern, but the failure of this continuation pattern can mean the failure of the trend.
It's a very useful signal that can be used on all time frames. You can find great examples of this before crashes (Such as 2007 - 2008) and also near the lows of major downtrends.
The strategy also works great for day trading. Spotting the breaking of intraday trends.
Usually upon the breaking of this pattern the momentum picks up.
Meaning a bearish break leads to capitulation and bullish break leads to parabolic move.
Very useful for spotting reversals and a method for trailing stop losses.
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This is a counter strategy to the butterfly continuation.
Strategy: Butterfly Correction Pattern. The butterfly can appear as a corrective pattern in a trend.
When it does, it's a two leg correction. The second leg is a false breakout of the first.
Being a harmonic, the final leg (D leg) is always the strongest.
When the butterfly serves as a corrective pattern, strong follow through can come.
In the times this works, we usually see the next swing extend 2.20 of the full range of the two leg correction (B-D legs).
Strategy: The Butterfly Reversal. Harmonics are a very useful tool for gaining insight into possible reversal levels after strong trends.
"M" shapes are often found at the bottom of trends and "W" shapes at the top. Most often these fit into the rules of the butterfly reversal.
A defining characteristic of the butterfly is the final leg (D leg) is always a very strong leg.
It's a strong and scary false breakout. Comes out of a range and always tends to look like trend continuation.
In the times the butterfly reversal will work, the strong move is terminal.
It'll run just far enough to take out the stops and bring in breakout traders and then have a spectacular reversal.
Another trait of harmonics is the reversal is at least as strong as the move heading into it, often stronger.
Since they have as a defining feature very strong swings at different points, when we have large chart harmonics these are often also accompanied by news that drives the fast moves.
In the times they work, harmonics are one of the most accurate forms of forward looking signals for a reversal.
However, it should be noted that trading harmonics as a sole strategy against a trend is not expected to have a winning outcome.
Typically you'd expected to hit about 1/3 winners on 1:3 RR and come out around even. That's if you do it really well. Otherwise, it's a losing game.
Lots of "M" shapes form in a downtrend and lots of "W" shapes form in an uptrend.
The formation of these does not always mean reversal, but when there are reversals; you often see these structures signalling them.
Harmonic butterflies are a classic false breakout / stop hunt pattern and very useful to know about.
Strategy: The 1.61 Head Fake Strategy. The 1.61 head fake strategy is intended to give early signals of where a high/low might be and be an early tell on the potential turn of the trend.
This strategy can be used for both pullbacks and reversals.
When traded as a correction, this strategy usually is successful in the forecasting and trading of the end of Elliot wave 5 heading into the ABC.
Absolute highs and lows can also be made with this 1.61 head fake.
Breaking of the 2.20 fib triggers failure of this strategy.
Strategy: 76 Correction Trend Continuation. The 76 correction strategy aims to pick up optimal continuation trades into large retracements.
It's a trend following strategy that aims to enter into strong counter trend moves to a 76% retracement of the previous trend leg.
This strategy usually performs best when combined with Elliot wave. Waiting for there to be a full impulsive leg in 5 waves followed by a big ABC correction.
The strategy aims to pick up trades into the "C" point in such a correction.
With a default minimum risk:reward of 1:3 the strategy is expected to breakeven on win rates of 35% or higher.
LOW Lowe's Companies Options Ahead of EarningsIf you haven`t bought the dip here:
Then analyzing the options chain and the chart patterns of LOW Lowe's Companies prior to the earnings report this week,
I would consider purchasing the 230usd strike price Calls with
an expiration date of 2024-4-19,
for a premium of approximately $11.15.
If these options prove to be profitable prior to the earnings release, I would sell at least half of them.
LOW is expected to report earnings to fall -49% to $1.68 per shaThe last earnings report on October 31 showed earnings per share of $3.27, beating the estimate of $3.02. P/B Ratio (0.000) is normal, around the industry mean (8.869). P/E Ratio (17.834) is within average values for comparable stocks, (28.574). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (3.190) is also within normal values, averaging (2.899). Dividend Yield (0.019) settles around the average of (0.035) among similar stocks. P/S Ratio (1.524) is also within normal values, averaging (84.116). With 2.10M shares outstanding, the current market capitalization sits at 133.75B.
$LOW Consolidation PennantNYSE:LOW has been on a tear since its Oct 27 low. The volume of buying during December 13, 14 and 15th is amazing. We now have a nice 8-day consolidation going that has formed a bullish pennant. In addition, today is shaping up to be an inside day. I do not know which way this will break but I did put on a one-third size position today with a stop just below the Dec 20th low. I will look to add to my position should it break to the upside. All TBD.
See the chart for other essential information.
Ideas, not investing / trading advice. Comments always welcome. Thanks for looking.
LOW - have patience with this dipNYSE:LOW current movement is similar to what we see across the consumer discretionary sector. It has also been consolidating in a long term symmetrical triangle.
There are three supporting areas that I've kept an eye on:
The 12/13/23 gap (215). Price fell through this level yesterday.
The variable weighted average price anchored to the 11/2/23 breakout (208-209)
The lower level of the symmetrical triangle (187-190)
If that AVWAP acts as support we'll want to anchor another to the prior high and monitor the sentiment between buyers and sellers. If it fails, the lower level of the triangle is potentially in play over the next few months.
It's worth noting that shorter and longer term momentum indicators have rolled over and that the first half of the year historically offers multiple buying opportunities.
Lowe's (NYSE: LOW) Earnings OverviewOver the last 1 year, LOW has beaten estimates 100% of the time and has beaten revenue estimates 75% of the time.
Retailers might see their demand softening as consumers could tighten their purse strings as economists expect a slowdown ahead in the backdrop of higher-for-longer interest rates.
The market is growing too negative about the housing DIY market, and investors should begin buying Lowe’s Inc Stock.
The company had beaten its expectations in its Q2 earnings. Fears on consumer spending are not the only thing the company is battling now. Lowe's had also pointed to a rise in crime as a factor of reduced earnings and noted that the issue could continue to cut into their financial results.
In September, the National Retail Foundation reported that in 2022, retail theft rose ~20% from a year earlier.
Technical Analysis
LOW is trading near the bottom of its 52-week range and below its 200-day simple moving average.
What does this mean?
Investors have been pushing the share price lower, and the stock still appears to have downward momentum. This is a neutral sign for the stock's future value.
ABOUT THE COMPANY
Lowe's Companies, Inc. (Lowe's) is a home improvement company. The Company operates home improvement and hardware stores. The Company offers a range of products for maintenance, repair, remodeling and decorating. The Company offers home improvement products in categories, including Appliances, Seasonal and Outdoor Living, Lawn and Garden, Lumber, Kitchens and Bath, Tools, Paint, Millwork, Hardware, Flooring, Rough Plumbing, Building Materials, Decor, Lighting, and Electrical.
💵 E a r n i n g s J o u r n a l📶 S T A T I S T I C A L A N A L Y S I S
Current 50-Day Market Trend: short/sellers/negative.
Next Swing: neutral swing of volatility.
Next Wave: sell wave to the range.
Next 50-Day Market Trend: long/buyers/positive.
Trade Type: Touch & Go don't wait for a close.
💵 E A R N I N G S A T A G L A N C E
Market Capitalization: 117.558B
Release Date: 11/21 BMO
Quarter: FQ3'23
_______________________________________________
Revenue Anticipations: positive surprise of Revenues.
Revenue Surprise-Confidence: on a scale of 0-9, #4
Revenue 2-Year Trend: the company trend in Revenues is neutral.
_______________________________________________
EPS Anticipations: positive surprise of EPS.
EPS Surprise-Confidence: on a scale of 0-9, #2
EPS 2-Year Trend: the company trend in EPS is neutral.
_______________________________________________
📝 S Y N O P S I S
🟢 Buy ~ If the earnings report is above the Wall Street consensus, I expect the market will buy the +surprise.
⚪ Neutral ~ If the earnings report is released with complicating press, I expect the market will avoid the surprise and invest in alternative securities.
🔴 Sell ~ If the earnings report is below the Wall Street consensus, I expect the market will sell the -surprise.
🔎 R E S E A R C H D E P T H
Technical Analysis: daily chart.
Fundamental Analysis: EPS & Revenue data.
Press/News: none.
Social Media: none.
☝️ P R O V I S I O N
The analysis presented is incomplete work thereby can't safely trade in the Market by itself.
LOW Lowe's Companies Options Ahead of EarningsIf you haven`t sold LOW ahead of the previous earnings:
Then analyzing the options chain and the chart patterns of RUM Rumble prior to the earnings report this week,
I would consider purchasing the 210usd strike price Calls with
an expiration date of 2023-12-15,
for a premium of approximately $3.70.
If these options prove to be profitable prior to the earnings release, I would sell at least half of them.
Looking forward to read your opinion about it.
LOW Lowe's Companies Options Ahead of EarningsAnalyzing the options chain and the chart patterns of LOW Lowe's Companies prior to the earnings report this week,
I would consider purchasing the 210usd strike price Puts with
an expiration date of 2023-10-20,
for a premium of approximately $4.95.
If these options prove to be profitable prior to the earnings release, I would sell at least half of them.
Looking forward to read your opinion about it.
LOW to 250After hitting a LOW in June 2022, the stock broke out in June this year. It appears to be retracing or possibly filling a gap at 204.74. I’m watching this zone for a potential rebound, with two gaps above as profit targets. A break above this year’s high at 230.721 could lead to a target of 250 by year-end. However, if support gives way, marked by an upward trendline from May 2022, the stock might head towards a gap fill at 191.94.