IRON TARIHi guys,
this IV brings me to reverse the condor again.
3 weeks and 3% strikes give a range to be ITM with the 2 sold options between 192.5 and 205.
The odds to end ITM are only 24%, so I revrese the condor to have a nice 76% probability of profit, RR almost 1
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Enjoy your wallet!
Tari,
LOW trade ideas
LOW - BULLISH CANAL / TARGET TO THE MOONAaron’s Furniture ( AAN )
Big Lots (BIG)
Croc’s ( CROX )
Lowe’s (LOW)
REASON: Retail - especially those brands less equipped to adopt e-commerce - was hit hard by the pandemic. Not only were people not visiting shopping malls or buying work clothes, but fashion as a whole was reduced to sweatpants and leisure clothes, taking many fashion retailers on a prolonged dip.
With retail, investors should be looking for brands that continue to support trends that started in the pandemic, such as retirement names while people continue to work from home - some permanently - as well as retailers that offer discounted retail experiences or flexible.
Is Lowes Signaling An Overall Market Decline?Lowe's triggered my early-warning price reversal algorithm. The full accuracy when this occurs is detailed in the article at my website below. The RSI algorithm determines overbought and oversold levels. The algorithm signaled a SELL on April 6, 2021. Equities nearly always obey the signal and move down, but sometimes it may continue to move up first. This is interesting if the signal is accurate. We are heading into the summer months which would ultimately be profitable for the company. The stock could be in for another short-lived cool off which is most likely the case here. Most of my algorithms may point to a reversal but that reversal ends up reversing usually within 50 trading bars. While the current signal ultimately has the stock dropping, it could gain slightly first. Once the drop has occurred, there is no doubt Lowe's will be primed to retrace this drop.
I have placed two red boxes and two green boxes on the chart. The larger red box depicts all of the historical movement, from a percentage standpoint, that this stock has moved on the Daily chart after a SELL signal occurred. Therefore, this box represents 100% of previous movement upward before the stock finally moved downward. The smaller red box represents 50% of all historical movement upward, before the stock moved downward. The smaller box is more of a precise target for the potential top in this instance.
The green boxes represent the same thing. In this instance, the smaller green box would be my projected target for the final bottom.
The black dotted arrow represents median historical movement. Medians are a good metric, but they are just one of many I use when forecasting future movement.
As always, the stock could decline the very next bar after the signal without looking back (therefore the red boxes would not come into play) or the stock may never decline (and the green boxes may never come into play).
All statistics and the full analysis are available for free as always at the site below.
$LOW with a bullish outlook following its earnings #Stocks The PEAD projected a slight bullish outlook for $LOW after a positive over reaction following its earnings release placing the stock in Drift B
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$low in a bull flag .$LOW is currently in a bullish flag position. I like the postures of the indicators on the daily, 4 hr, and the 1 hr. Price is currently testing the top of that daily trend expecting a break out move. if the break out occurs, looks like its going to make an attempt at new ATH's. The fib levels are looking good, 175.45 is a level that was briefly used for support back around OCT 16, 2020 when it reached ATHs and got rejected. We are now currently back at those levels. Price is currently 177.59, 1.75% is what it needs to move to make new ATHs.
let me know what y'all think
Watching for small Long on LowesLiking the set up playing out here. With this move up into some resistance / supply but also getting above a shorter time frame downtrend line, I'm liking the potential Elliott wave count here and projected fib retrace and extensions based off the potential count.
I'll look for price to come back down to around the $160 area. Volatility is really low right now, and if it stays that way, debits are way to go as option premium will be cheap.
If price can come back down to 160 and hold/find support there, I'll enter a long play with a price target of $175 area.
My stop loss will be if price puts in a lower low below $157.13. If it falls under that price, I'll look for small bearish play, as I believe it will possibly go and try to close the gap down around $150 - $152 price range.
For right now: I'm waiting! But alerts will be set!