LULU - Long Term A+ Pullback on the bullish trend here looking on a large timeframe. Discount prices at these levels and I certainly know my wife hasn't slowed her obsession. Long term believers should rejoice at a these levels.
LULU trade ideas
Lululemon's Drop Has Me Completely SurprisedI’m still in awe at the drop happening across fashion stocks like NASDAQ:LULU , NYSE:NKE , and even Under Armour.
The other week, I wrote about Nike and now I realize I must comment on the drop of Lululemon, which is down 50% this year and now has its lowest PE ratio in over decade all while doing about $1 billion in Free Cash Flow last holiday season.
So what’s going on?
First, let’s look at their declines since the start of the year: Nike is down 33% year-to-date, Lululemon has plunged 51%, and Under Armour has dropped 21%.
I did some research into why this might be happening, as earnings and margins are being challenged, and found the following three reasons:
1. The athletic fashion market has become fiercely competitive, maybe more than ever, with new brands entering the fray and established brands expanding their offerings. Companies like Athleta, Fabletics, and various direct-to-consumer startups are aggressively targeting the same market segments that giants like Nike and Lululemon dominate.
2. New shopping mechanics on Instagram and Amazon has dramatically altered the retail landscape. Instagram's shopping features and Amazon's expansive marketplace have changed how consumers discover and purchase athletic apparel. Brands now need to invest heavily in digital marketing and influencer partnerships to stay relevant. This shift has favored agile, digitally native brands that can quickly adapt to new trends and customer behaviors. This is a big deal.
3. Wall Street's relentless focus on short-term performance has placed additional strain on these companies. Investors demand constant growth, often pushing companies to prioritize immediate gains over long-term stability. This pressure can lead to cost-cutting measures that impact product quality and innovation. For instance, there are concerns that Nike may have compromised on quality control to meet earnings expectations, resulting in dissatisfied customers and negative reviews.
While I don’t have a position on in any of these stocks, I am absolutely watching Nike and Lululemon. At these levels, and if they continue to drop, I believe a trade will open up. I’ll share more details soon about this!
Lululemon is on my watchlist!
LULU is OVERSOLD!LULU is oversold and currently at $268 from the time of this posting. I expect it to touch the 8 EMA at $295 with a bounce. I think this is a great area to go LONG on LULU.
Not financial advice, good luck to all :)
7/10/24 - $lulu - 1% position initiated @ $2857/10/24 :: VROCKSTAR :: NASDAQ:LULU
1% position initiated @ $285
- look at $LULU/ NYSE:NKE
- same low 20s PE, higher growth, better FCF yield, see no reason why this trend doesn't continue. always always own the smaller marginal gainer when you can, returns will be better
- look at $LULU/ INDEX:SPXEW (the equal weight S&P) and you'll also notice LT outperformance. despite the whacky paradigm we're in today where 10 stocks are 80% of index returns, sometimes it's harder to identify marginal gainers against tech. so if we treat tech like anything else, NASDAQ:LULU remains a better money than most of the stocks in the S&P.
- not a must own, admittedly. we REMAIN in a consumer-poor environment and this hurdle is hard for the mkt to look thru. even rate cuts don't immediately benefit an ailing consumer losing his job, immediately. that said, NASDAQ:LULU remains a premium px product (and still best product in it's category) and this consumer likely hurts less.
- I'd like to own more than 1%, but will start using 5-10% down from here increments to feel it out. I'd plan for it to become 2% or if we start going in the sub $250's, perhaps 2.5-3% scaling up as we go lower.
LMK if u see it differently or agree
V
PS - read my prior NASDAQ:LULU post for context from 5/20/24. turning this into a "new idea" bc at this pt i'm starting to build a position and want to separate the two thoughts.
Looking for a bullish swing opportunity on LULU! 🔉Sound on!🔉
Thank you as always for watching my videos. I hope that you learned something very educational! Please feel free to like, share, and comment on this post. Remember only risk what you are willing to lose. Trading is very risky but it can change your life!
LULU Short IdeaLULU got a pop today along with NKE, that was the first real move up it has had in a good while. I still consider it to be extremely weak, and there's a nice ascending wedge that went right up into trendline resistance. I'd expect a rejection from here, if not it may go test the longer term trend above.
Final target is 265, I'll keep shorting LULU as long as it remains in this extended downtrend. Weak stocks are weak.
$LULU is showing some positive signsI like there clothings ... Distracted my bad BUT this is not a bias analysis i promise ... NASDAQ:LULU is showing some positive signs. The stock is trading above its 50-day moving average, which is a bullish signal. The RSI is 50.98, which is Bullish. The MACD is 0.72 signaling trend change. The ADX is 17.77, which is a buy signal
LULUWaiting for the wave C reach the length of the wave A within an assumed EW flat
Itchy to buy, but will wait until it touches my level
LULU Short IdeaLULU is seeing a nice pop for once today. However, it's back to a previous low which I think is likely to cause a rejection. If not, I'd be watching the next previous low around $293. Stop is above there.
Daily Recap - NQ + VX Trade SetupA recap of today's action, I go over some of my trades and other analysis. Specifically I talk about one of my favorite setups using VX and some other expectations before CPI.
LULU Short AnalysisLULU has been extremely weak since earnings earlier this year and it is not showing any signs of regaining strength. NKE has been getting hammered along with other names like Walgreens. It's a weak sector in a strong bull market.
The main point of this idea is to show that semiconductors and the mag 7 are carrying the market higher, but there are still a lot of other weak sectors with short opportunities. You reduce your risk substantially by shorting weak stocks and following the trend.
5/20/24 - $lulu - too much risk to owning it this wk into print5/20/24 - vrockstar - NASDAQ:LULU - clearly there's something wrong on a day like today where mkt is ATH and moving higher and 23x next year PE LULU is getting crushed. this is a bad omen for EPS, or the expectations need to come down and the stock is incorporating this. the real conundrum is beyond a beat (if that's the case this RIPS), the stock is going to probably take some time to find its lows and oscillate in the 250-300 region for a while (perhaps a quarter or two). if you don't need to own this, i'd probably let the EPS catalyst pass risk free. this px action tells a pretty dismal story of big owners that would seem to know something you/we don't. careful fam. i like the name and want to own it... but not now. too much risk.
I went long on LULUAfter it breaks above the support level at 361.66, I decided to take a small position in this company. The question is will it continue to rally or maybe fall back down again?
Nobody knows, we are all betting with a certain amount of probability , back by financial figures, story of the company to convince you that this is a worthwhile company to take a stake in. Thus, it is crucial to be conservative in the beginning and until the chart shows you what you want to see, then you can add more in tranches. It is a marathon, so be patient, no need to rush.
LULU: consolidation and forming bottomLULU: consolidation and forming bottom
-Demand zone support at 300.
-Key level support.
-Forming inversed Head n Shoulder pattern. Supply is still high, LULU will need more time in considation range.
LULU stock was down 40% YTD. Key indicators.Lululemon (Ticker: LULU) Q1 2024 Earnings
LULU stock was down 40% YTD, so its Q1 2024 earnings were eagerly anticipated by investors. Key highlights include:
Revenue
Revenue rose by 10% overall to $2.2 billion, or 11% in constant currency, with significant growth in international markets. Mainland China saw a 52% increase, and the rest of the world grew by 30%. In the Americas, revenue increased by 4% in constant currency, with Canada up 12% and the U.S. up 2%. By category, women's merchandise grew by 10%, men's by 15%, and accessories by 2%. Store sales rose by 12%, and digital revenue increased by 8%.
Profitability
Gross profit reached $1.28 billion, with a slight gross margin increase to 57.7% due to lower costs and higher product margins. Earnings per share were $2.54, up from $2.28 the previous year.
Capital Allocation
The company also repurchased nearly $300 million of stock in Q1 and $230 million in Q2 so far, with an additional $1 billion authorized for future repurchases.
Guidance
Revenue guidance remains at 10% to 11% growth for the year. Management expects to open 35-40 new stores and maintain a steady gross margin. Full-year EPS guidance was raised to between $14.27 and $14.47.
Lululemon: Still Sweating It Out in the Athleisure Arena?Lululemon: Still Sweating It Out in the Athleisure Arena?
Lululemon, once the undisputed queen of the yoga pant kingdom, is facing a new reality in the ever-evolving world of athleisure. While the brand still boasts a loyal fanbase and undeniable brand recognition, questions linger about its ability to maintain relevance against a growing legion of competitors.
The Rise and Reign of Lululemon
Lululemon's story is one of meteoric ascent. Founded in 1998, the company carved a niche for itself by prioritizing quality and functionality in yoga apparel. Their signature Luon fabric, known for its breathability and sweat-wicking properties, became a game-changer. Lululemon cultivated a community around its stores, fostering a sense of belonging and exclusivity. Their high price points weren't just tolerated, they were seen as a badge of quality.
The Changing Landscape of Athleisure
However, the landscape has dramatically shifted. Athleisure is no longer confined to yoga studios. It's a mainstream fashion choice, embraced for everything from workouts to errands. This has opened the door for a flood of competitors offering similar – and sometimes more affordable – options.
Competition Heats Up
Mainstream brands like Nike and Adidas have aggressively expanded their athleisure offerings. Fast-fashion retailers like H&M and Zara are churning out trendy athleisure pieces at a fraction of the price. Upstart brands with innovative materials and designs are also vying for market share. Lululemon is no longer the only game in town.
Beyond the ABC Pants
Lululemon's reliance on its core products, like the ubiquitous Align leggings and ABC (Anything But Compression) pants, might be holding them back. While these remain popular, they haven't kept pace with the evolving trends. Consumers are looking for a wider variety, from high-performance workout gear to stylish athleisure pieces that seamlessly transition from gym to brunch.
The Scrunchie Factor
Lululemon's recent forays into accessories like belt bags and hair scrunchies raise questions about their brand direction. While these might generate some additional sales, they risk diluting the brand's core identity as a leader in performance apparel.
Staying Relevant: A Path Forward
So, has Lululemon lost its relevance? Not necessarily. But they face an uphill battle. Here are some ways they can stay competitive:
• Embrace Innovation: Lululemon needs to continue innovating, developing new fabrics and designs that cater to the diverse needs of today's athleisure consumer.
• Expand the Product Range: Offering a wider variety of styles and price points can attract a broader customer base. This doesn't have to compromise their core focus on quality, but it does require strategic expansion.
• Cater to Different Activities: Lululemon can move beyond the yoga studio and cater to a wider range of athletic pursuits, offering specialized apparel for running, training, and other fitness activities.
• Focus on Community: Lululemon's community focus has always been a strength. They can leverage this by creating engaging in-store experiences, hosting workshops, and building a stronger online community.
• Sustainability Matters: Consumers are increasingly concerned about sustainability. Lululemon can solidify its position by prioritizing eco-friendly practices throughout their supply chain.
Lululemon's legacy in the athleisure industry is undeniable. But their future success hinges on their ability to adapt, innovate, and cater to the market's ever-changing needs. The days of dominance built solely on high-priced yoga pants are likely over. The road ahead requires a focus on product diversification, strategic expansion, and a renewed commitment to staying at the forefront of the athleisure revolution.
Despite the tepid growth, $LULU surged 10% in extended hours
- **Earnings per share (EPS)**: Lululemon reported EPS of $2.54, beating Wall Street's estimate of $2.38.
- **Revenue**: The company's revenue reached $2.21 billion, slightly exceeding the expected $2.19 billion.
- **Americas Market**: Lululemon faced challenges in its largest market (the Americas), with flat comparable sales. Last quarter, they struggled due to inventory issues in U.S. stores.
- **Guidance**: Lululemon issued weak second-quarter guidance, but its full fiscal year outlook suggests optimism for improvement in the latter half of the year.
Overall, Lululemon is navigating growth opportunities internationally while addressing challenges in the Americas market. CEO Calvin McDonald emphasized the company's potential for further growth and optimization
LULU: Luxury Powerhouse & Multi-Decade TrendsetterKey Rationale:
Fundamentals remain intact making this a very attractive time to be contrarian, ignore the pessimism and buy the dip. Always nice to buy what you know and can see around you.
Comments:
Credited with the development of athleisure. Hasn't yet seized Pickleball market opportunity.
Incessant selling due is unwarranted with one executive departing.
One of the best available Ex-U.S. stocks.
Potential tailwind off the back of Ozempic & GLP-1 craze.
Still a profitability powerhouse with pricing power because of its iconic brand.
Same-store sales are growing exponentially, and an expansionary opportunity abroad.
Narrow Moat, Exemplary Capital Allocation.
Luxury market is different from discount competitors, and luxury brands are seldom cheap.
3-Star Valuation on Morningstar, hasn't been this cheap since 2017.
Stellar Profitability, Growth, and Quality scores in GreenBlue (4, 29, and 125 out of 2982)
Proprietary Scores:
GreenBlue Cumulative Rank: 128/2982 (Lower = Better)
GreenBlue Current Rank: 407/2982 (Lower = Better)
GreenRed Rank: 225/499 (Lower = Better)
Gurufocus Score: 97/100 (Higher = Better)
Company Profile:
Lululemon Athletica designs, distributes, and markets athletic apparel, footwear, and accessories for women, men, and girls. Lululemon offers pants, shorts, tops, and jackets for both leisure and athletic activities such as yoga and running. The company also sells fitness accessories, such as bags, yoga mats, and equipment. Lululemon sells its products through more than 700 company-owned stores in about 20 countries, e-commerce, outlets, and wholesale accounts. The company was founded in 1998 and is based in Vancouver, Canada.
Competitors:
ROST, TJX, BURL, GPS, URBN
Risks:
This goes the path of Nike and is dead money for the near future.
Lululemon Stock Sinks 6.38% As Chief Product Officer ResignsLululemon Athletica ( NASDAQ:LULU ) has announced an organizational restructuring, with Chief Product Officer Sun Choe resigning to pursue another opportunity. The company stated that the changes are designed to support the company's growth plans, accelerate product innovation, and enable its go-to-market strategies. Lululemon ( NASDAQ:LULU ) will not replace the CPO position. Global Creative Director Jonathan Cheung will drive the product design and innovation roadmap, while continuing to oversee design, innovation, and product development at the firm.
Several analysts have argued that the move is a bad sign for the company, as Lululemon ( NASDAQ:LULU ) faces a slowing apparel market and tough competition. Lululemon shares ( NASDAQ:LULU ) were down about 7% to $299.95 as of 10:21 a.m. ET Wednesday. The stock was down 4.4% premarket Wednesday after the company announced the departure of its chief product officer and said it would overhaul its product and brand teams.
Lululemon ( NASDAQ:LULU ) will now have Jonathan Cheung, global creative director, report directly to Chief Executive Calvin McDonald and oversee product design and innovation. Cheung has more than 30 years of experience in senior leadership roles at global brands. Lululemon will also create a new team of leaders from merchandising and brand functions to manage global and regional go-to-market strategies. Nikki Neuburger will become chief brand and product activation manager to oversee merchandising, footwear, and product operations on top of her current responsibilities. Elizabeth Binder, chief merchandising officer, will report to Neuburger.
Wedbush analyst Tom Nikic believes the selloff seems overdone and is likely due to how well-liked and well-respected Choe was by Wall Street. Lululemon ( NASDAQ:LULU ) has been a "notable laggard" in Wedbush's coverage this year, with the stock down 37% and the S&P 500 SPX having gained 12%. Choe's reign saw Lululemon's revenue grow by about 4%.
Technical Outlook
Lulu Lemon ( NASDAQ:LULU ) stock is down 6.47% as of the time of writing trading with a Relative Strength Index (RSI) of 20.47 which is oversold. The stock has been on a falling wedge pattern for over 8 weeks now.
Why Lulu Could Plummet to $275 And How You Can Profit From It!As of the latest close, Lululemon Athletica Inc. (LULU) is trading at $322.98, reflecting a notable downtrend over the past several weeks. The stock has seen a recent decline, breaking through critical support levels, and is currently trading well below its key moving averages, signaling a bearish outlook.
Recent corporate announcements, including the departure of the Chief Product Officer and the establishment of new executive roles, could introduce uncertainty and volatility. Investors should closely monitor how these changes impact the company's strategic direction and operational efficiency.
Price Prediction and Trading Strategy
Given the current technical landscape, LULU appears poised for further downside in the short term. However, the oversold indicators suggest that a relief rally could occur before the stock resumes its downward trajectory.
Short-Term Price Target: Based on the descending channel pattern and the recent price action, the next significant support level is around $300.00. If the bearish momentum continues, we could see LULU test this level within the next few weeks.
Long-Term Price Target: Should the downtrend persist, and if broader market conditions remain unfavorable, LULU could potentially drop to $275.00, aligning with the lower boundary of its long-term descending channel.
Trading Strategy:
Short Position:
Entry: Enter a short position if LULU breaks below $320.00, confirming the continuation of the downtrend.
Stop Loss: Set a stop loss at $335.00 to protect against a potential short squeeze.
Take Profit: Target the $300.00 level initially, with a secondary target of $275.00 for a more extended downtrend.
Long Position (Speculative and Short-Term):
Entry: Consider a long position if LULU shows a strong reversal signal and breaks above $330.00 with significant volume, indicating a potential short-term rally.
Stop Loss: Set a stop loss at $320.00 to mitigate downside risk.
Take Profit: Target $350.00, where the stock may face resistance from the 20-day EMA.
Conclusion
Lululemon Athletica Inc. (LULU) is currently entrenched in a bearish trend, exacerbated by recent management changes and technical indicators signaling oversold conditions. Traders should remain cautious, employing disciplined stop losses to manage risk. While there are speculative opportunities for a short-term rebound, the prevailing sentiment favors short positions until a clear reversal pattern emerges.
LULU getting closeLULU is getting very close to an attractive buy point. I actually like it right here and now... it's close enough to start building a position. I especially like it at the two green support levels, which line up well with the 200 week (an area i love to buy quality name brand stocks).
LULU LONG WEEKLY GOLDEN POCKET
Fib tool used to identify bounce in price and currently lines up well for longterm LONGS
