Mercedes-Benz group AG- An opportunity to buy/Average down.Hello,
Today we will be looking at a buy opportunity from Mercedes solely using the tools available on Tradingview.
Mercedes-Benz Group AG engages in the business of manufacturing and distributing premium cars. It operates through the following segments: Mercedes-Benz Cars, Mercedes-Benz Vans, and Mercedes-Benz Mobility. The Mercedes-Benz Cars segment includes the brands Mercedes-AMG, Mercedes-Maybach, and Mercedes-EQ. All this is found in overview section www.tradingview.com
TECHNICAL ANALYSIS- Checklist
Structure drawing (Trend line drawing on past price chart data)
Patterns identification (Naming patterns on past price chart data for future wave)- The stock has corrected and is at the bottom of a flat pattern
Future indication (Reading indicator for future wave)- The indicator is confirming purchase. Zero crossover on MACD soon. (MACD) is a technical indicator to help investors identify entry points for buying or selling
Future wave (Drawing on future price chart using future indication from indicator)- Future wave as shown
Future reversal point (Identifying trend reversal point on price chart using structure)- Target price EUR 76 (A good stock to buy/average down)
Key highlights from the Mercedes-Benz Group's Q3 2024 interim report
Revenue: €34.5 billion in Q3 2024, a 7% decrease compared to Q3 2023. For the first nine months, revenue totalled €107.14 billion, down by 5%.
Net Profit: €1.7 billion in Q3, down by 54%, and €7.7 billion over nine months, a 31% reduction.
Mercedes-Benz Cars: Unit sales were down by 1% to 503,600 vehicles in Q3. Electrified vehicle sales fell by 15%, and BEV sales dropped by 31%.
Mercedes-Benz Vans: Sales declined by 13% to 91,100 units in Q3. Electrified van sales also decreased by 31%.
Mercedes-Benz Mobility: New financing and leasing contracts fell by 14% compared to Q3 2023
R&D expenditure increased by 13% to €2.9 billion in Q3, with a focus on digitalization and electrification
Company highlights can be found on the statements section or the news flow section www.tradingview.com
Next earnings report date: February 13, 2025 (Q4 report 2024) The next earnings date can be found for each company www.tradingview.com
Opportunities
Mercedes-Benz is a globally recognized and respected brand in premium and luxury automobiles, giving it some resilience against fluctuations in car sales.
The company’s strong focus on research and development, especially in electric powertrains, positions it well for growth as clean-air regulations continue to tighten worldwide.
Management’s long-term goals for return on sales indicate that there is opportunity for further growth, suggesting potential upside to valuation.
Risks to consider
The global premium car market is highly competitive, and consumers have many choices, making it easy for them to switch between brands.
The auto industry faces increasing global overcapacity, leading to pricing pressure. Given its capital-intensive nature, achieving strong economic returns over a 10-year period remains challenging.
While Mercedes has maintained good union relations with its German workforce, union influence is substantial, with employees electing half of the supervisory board members. This strong union presence can limit profit margins due to wage demands during prosperous times and work rules that reduce flexibility in manufacturing.
Our recommendation
Since November 2021, Mercedes-Benz stock has traded in a sideways range between EUR 52 and EUR 76. Despite this, the company remains a globally recognized premium and luxury brand. This positioning continues to provide resilience against high sales fluctuations, making it a standout in the competitive global luxury car market. Mercedes-Benz Cars continue to face weaker macroeconomic conditions and fierce competition, mainly in Asia. The company is actively undertaking a share buyback. In Q4 2024 the Mercedes-Benz Group opened Europe’s first battery recycling factory in Kuppenheim, southern Germany. Valuable, limited raw materials such as lithium, nickel and cobalt can be recovered and are to be used to manufacture new battery cells for Mercedes-Benz vehicles. This buyback, along with the company’s strong positioning and stock’s trading range, presents a potential buying opportunity with a target price of EUR 76 despite the weak Q3 results. Our recommendation is buy/Average down. Mercedes-Benz’s commitment to research and development, particularly in electric powertrains, positions it advantageously for growth amid tightening clean-air regulations worldwide.
Goodluck & all the best.
MBG/N trade ideas
Mercedes Benz MotorsReason for execution
1)PML LIQUIDATION
2)+BOS
3)0.382 Fibonacci Retracement
4)positive OF
5)1.618 Fib Expansion
Mercedes-Benz Group !!! Rewards
Trading at 31.8% below estimate of its fair value
Trading at good value compared to peers and industry
Risk Analysis
Debt is not well covered by operating cash flow
Earnings are forecast to decline by an average of 0.9% per year for the next 3 years
Unstable dividend track record
Mercedes-Benz cuts forecasts due to weakness in ChinaMercedes-Benz shares fell more than 7% after announcing a cut in its profit forecast due to economic weakness in China. The company adjusted its adjusted return on sales forecast for its auto division to between 7.5% and 8.5%, down from the previous range of 10%-11%. The slowdown in consumption and problems in the Chinese real estate sector have reduced demand for luxury cars, affecting the automaker's sales. Mercedes also warned that pricing pressure will continue during the second half of the year, which could further deteriorate its results. The forecast cut is in line with the trend seen at other manufacturers such as BMW and Volkswagen, which have also seen weaker demand. Although some adjustment was expected, the magnitude of the warning has been larger than expected, affecting sentiment towards the brand.
Since April 2024, Mercedes-Benz shares have fallen 29.85%. However, in the last nine days it has recovered 8.73%. Balance sheets for the last three years show a weakening in its profits since 2021. In addition, increasing competition from Chinese manufacturers, which are expanding into Europe, has increased the pressure on German manufacturers. Chinese consumers are opting for local brands that offer more tailored products and better value for money. In terms of technical analysis, Mercedes-Benz shares are in a rebound on key support dating back to February 2021. If the upcoming financial results do not meet expectations, there is a risk that this support around €50.63 could be broken, which could exacerbate the company's downtrend.
Ion Jauregui –ActivTrades Analyst
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Technical Analysis of Mercedes-Benz Group AG (MBG)### Technical Analysis of Mercedes-Benz Group AG (MBG)
#### Overview
The chart shows the daily price movement of Mercedes-Benz Group AG, indicating significant technical levels and trends. Key aspects include the Fibonacci retracement levels, support and resistance lines, and trend lines.
#### Fibonacci Retracement Levels
The Fibonacci retracement levels are drawn from the swing low around the end of 2020 to the swing high in early 2022. The key levels are:
- **0.236 (60.77 EUR)**
- **0.382 (63.95 EUR)**
- **0.5 (66.53 EUR)**
- **0.618 (69.11 EUR)**
- **0.786 (72.77 EUR)**
These levels often act as potential support and resistance zones.
#### Current Price Action
The current price is around **64.98 EUR**, slightly above the 0.382 Fibonacci retracement level (63.95 EUR), suggesting that this level may act as support. The recent price action shows a decline from the highs near the 0.786 level (72.77 EUR), testing lower support levels.
#### Trend Lines
The chart indicates a long-term ascending trend line starting from the lows of early 2020, intersecting with the 0.236 Fibonacci level around **60.77 EUR**. There is also a shorter-term ascending trend line from early 2023, providing additional support levels.
#### Resistance Levels
- **66.53 EUR (0.5 Fibonacci level)**
- **69.11 EUR (0.618 Fibonacci level)**
- **72.77 EUR (0.786 Fibonacci level)**
These levels are crucial to monitor as potential resistance if the price attempts to move higher.
#### Support Levels
- **63.95 EUR (0.382 Fibonacci level)**
- **60.77 EUR (0.236 Fibonacci level)**
The ascending trend line also provides dynamic support around these levels.
#### Projection
Given the current positioning, the price might continue to test the 0.382 Fibonacci level (63.95 EUR) for support. If this level holds, a potential rebound towards 66.53 EUR or higher might occur. Conversely, a break below 63.95 EUR could see the price testing the next support around 60.77 EUR, where the ascending trend line also provides a confluence of support.
### Conclusion
Mercedes-Benz Group AG (MBG) is currently in a consolidation phase, with key support at 63.95 EUR and resistance around 66.53 EUR. Traders should watch these levels for potential breakout or breakdown scenarios, keeping an eye on the broader market trends and any significant news that might impact the stock.
### Disclaimer
This analysis is just an opinion and should not be considered as financial advice. Trading stocks involves risk, and you should do your own research or consult a financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Any profit or loss is the responsibility of the audience, and I do not take any responsibility in this regard.
Sell opportunity for MBG (Mercedes Benz group)Hello guys
There is sell order in MBG stock .
I hope you enjoy it
$MBG after a great fall comes the revival.MBG showing extreme SHORT moves past couple weeks. We can clearly see a strong band between 50$ and 57$. It seems like LONG positions entered anywhere in this area would generate a good profit. Be aware that this would be a "Buy and forget for a couple of weeks." trade.
MERCEDES-BENZ Long IDEA The stock seems to have support here with a developing cup & handle patten which will target gap close at 61.40
Bullish MACD crossover
Buyzone: 57-56
Stoploss: 55
A **Cup and Handle** pattern is a technical chart pattern that resembles a cup with a handle, where the cup is in the shape of a "u" and the handle has a slight downward drift. This pattern is considered a bullish signal, extending an uptrend, and is used to spot opportunities to go long.
Here are some key points to consider when detecting cup and handle patterns:
- **Length**: Cups with longer and more "U" shaped bottoms provide a stronger signal. Avoid cups with sharp "V" bottoms.
- **Depth**: The cup should not be overly deep. Also, handles should form in the top half of the cup pattern.
- **Volume**: Volume should decrease as prices decline and remain lower than average in the base of the bowl; it should then increase when the stock begins to make its move higher, back up to test the previous high.
The pattern was first described by William J. O'Neil in his 1988 classic book on technical analysis, "How to Make Money in Stocks". The full pattern is complete when price breaks out of this consolidation in the direction of the cup's advance. The price will likely continue in that direction though conservative traders may look for additional confirmation.
MERCEDES GROUP, LONG POSITIONGood fundamentals
Mercedes-Benz Group AG operates as an automotive company in Germany and internationally. The company develops, manufactures, and sells premium and luxury cars and vans under the Mercedes-AMG, Mercedes-Benz, Mercedes-Maybach, and Mercedes-EQ brands, as well as related spare parts and accessories. It also provides financing, leasing, car subscription and rental, fleet management, insurance brokerage, and mobility services, as well as digital services for charging and payment.
High shareholder yield
Has raised its dividend for 3 consecutive years
Stock generally trades with low price volatility
Prominent player in the Automobiles industry
Stockholders receive high returns on book equity
Analysts predict the company will be profitable this year
Mercedes-Benz Group: Parking 🚘Mercedes is about to park wave (2) in magenta in our green target zone between €67.31 and €77.90. Once this top is placed, the share should continue the overarching downward trend, dropping below the support at €60.72 and (after a short countermovement) further southwards. There is a 30% chance, though, that Mercedes could leave the green zone on the northern side and thus climb above the resistance at €77.90. In that case, we would expect the share to develop a higher top first before heading downwards. Wave alt.B in green would then expand into the magenta-colored zone between €84.44 and €89.37.
MERCEDES BENZ GROUP AG!!BUY XETR:MBG
Tp1 : 75.50
sl : 65.50
if you have any questions do not hesitate to contact me.
Mercedes-Benz is at a multi-month resistance of 75Why should we short Mercedes-Benz?
1 - they hung up on the phone with Hitler who made them millions of dollars in WWI
2 - There's a huge resistance at 75 dollars
3 - they refused to pay for a car they invented that was literally my address: 63 Madison ave AMG
4 - I already asked Doug Clark (my former manager at ITG Global) to alert the CEO of Credit suiSSe to create some complex bearish derivatives more advanced than those of Fabrice les 2 Tours from GS
Mercedez-Benz consolidated and is on a strong rallyMercedes-Benz is still making high quality cars despite inflationary pressures reducing profitability in the auto-industry.
Hitler had a special relationship with Mercedes (the name of a Spanish relative of mine connected to Carmen Gabriel).
It will be interesting to see whether or not the price will break above the overhead resistance. I guess it will depend on how much money the Rothschilds/Reichmanns/Bronfmans and the Rockefellers have left.
BUY
PS: why does Mercedes-Benz Kitchener have a random yellow hat?
Pierre Gabriel
CEO
Mercedes-Benz Group: In the Parking Lot 🚗 🚗 🚗Mercedes-Benz has found a parking spot in the big green parking lot between €67.31 and €77.90 and is about to finish wave in green. Though, as the course has just turned slightly downwards, the current movement could also already be complete. As soon as this high is finalized, the share should pay its parking ticket, leave the parking lot and drive southwards, crossing the support at €62.41 and subsequently heading for the next one at €50.19 as well.
Mercedes-Benz is ready to go!!!Hello friends
If Mercedes-Benz can reject the upcoming resistance, it can reach the specified area over time. Of course, this correction may be done in 3 steps and we will continue to decline and then rise.
MBG walking through the thought process. further researchMBG walking through the thought process. further research
MBG // cup handle formationAlthough there is a cup handle formation in the chart, the targets are determined according to Fibonacci.
Mercedes Benz: They see me rollin' 🚨 Mercedes Benz is back on track and working its way up to get to the green target zone between 67.31€ and 74.77€ to complete green wave . Thereafter, we expect the course to drop into a superior correction below the support line at 56.52€.
Expect the Mercedes-Benz stock price to riseAfter the return of the price from the upward trend, which it respected two weeks ago, and more, it is expected that the price will rise, and the least estimate to reach it is the resistance at the top, and it is possible for it to penetrate it.
The End of the Bear Market RallyMBG has reached its upper-range channel. Based on this channel, if MBG could reach the next upper channel, it would record a higher high. That is unlikely to happen with the current energy prices Germany has to pay. My view is that MBG has already reached its secondary peak. MBG will soon be entering a prominent bear market.
MERCEDES BEARSMBG SHORT IDEA
keeping it simple
In the bigger picture (global economics) i dont see a reason to flourish with that in mind it seems rather over bought sad to say
considering they went public this year
t/a
snd zone reached this is where i get logical with the fundamentals
then follow the strategy lead
if it does break we gone be looking at a good 10%
completeing the W formation
then potenially a nice 100% retracement drop
rolls royce analysis for the high rollers
SENNA SEASON
MBG // Cup handle formation Cup handle formation Let's look for closures in the place I indicated with X for the formation to be valid. Pay attention to the wedge indicator resistance in the weekly time frame. Targets are determined according to Fibonacci.
