This Could Be In TroubleNo reason to panic yet, but there might be one if 461 doesn't hold.
This has the same setup that I've seen in any major decline following an upthrust/blow off top. Here are my expectations:
Bearish Scenario
- Gap down to 430-445 Tuesday morning (2/20)
- Dead cat bounce to test 456-462 for resistance (point rejection level = 461.53)
** IF rejected, then it opens the door for an explosive drop to at least 396-418.
Point target = 411 by 2/23/2024
~If the 396-418 range does not hold as support, it could crash to as low as 335 ( downside targets if support breaks = 378, 362, 335 )
* If this occurs it will bottom around 2/28-3/1 and present a buying opportunity.
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Bullish/Neutral scenarios (both less likely than the bearish scenario)
1) 461 holds as support: this would result MDB becoming range bound between 460-486 going into Earnings 3/7
2) 461 doesn't hold but it finds support at 428 (AB==CD), then it would test 461 for resistance. IF that does not hold as resistance then it will attempt a new high above 509 (likely would only make it to 486).
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Summary:
- not expecting crash but its possible
- looking to enter Mar 1 430 puts if we get gap down followed by rejection at or before 461, target 411
- this downside will be healthy for MDB mid-term, needs it to test 600s in the future
