ITALY-MILAN STOCK > ( MONCE ) short ! Based on my graphic analysis I observe a bearish projection reaching minus 7% in the price of this corporation, that is; from € 64 it will drop to € 60. With a buy exit emerging at € 68, it is worth remembering that the exact time the decline will take is unpredictable, the market will simply do its job. We can mention that it will happen within the next 15-20 days from this post!
REFERENCES:
* Green line: emergency exit price: € 68 = -5,7%
* Red line: selling price (position) € 64
* White line: profit €60 = +7%
However, it is important to remember that these marked lines must be respected. If the price goes up 2 to 3% after you execute the position, don't try to improvise and change everything. The movement could return to the initial direction and you will be left frustrated!
"Sitting quietly and waiting for the operation to develop most of the time will allow you to earn much more money. That is, sit in the stands and enjoy the spectacle that the bull will present to you, control your emotions, since the biggest enemy of "The time to invest is yourself"
As for capital management, I leave it to my personal discretion knowing that we must always have money flowing and remain firm in the market.
Greetings and I hope you take advantage of this good negotiation opportunity!
> Josias Baltazar.n
MONC/N trade ideas
Moncler: A Stylish Investment on the RiseHello investors,
In this report, we dissect the financial intricacies of a prominent stock, leaving no detail unexplored. From market capitalization and price-to-earnings ratio to revenue conversion and cash reserves, we analyze every facet to equip you with strategic insights. We'll go beyond the numbers and charts, painting a vivid picture of the company's financial health. Moreover will be also sharing with you at the end what is my personal expert opinion and future outlook for the financial details of Moncler.
Moncler is a luxury fashion company with a market capitalization of 16.875 billion EUR. It currently trades at a Price to Earnings (P/E) ratio of 31.05, which indicates that investors are willing to pay 31.05 times the company's earnings per share (EPS). The current Basic EPS (TTM) stands at 2.01 EUR.
Now, let's dive into the Revenue to Profit Conversion for the year 2022:
- Total revenue: 100%
- Gross profit: 68%
- EBITDA: 40%
- Net income: 23%
The Revenue to Profit Conversion indicates that Moncler is generating a reasonable amount of revenue, but the conversion of that revenue into profits is somewhat lower. This could be an area of concern for investors, as a higher gross profit and net income conversion would generally be preferred.
Next, let's examine Moncler's financial health based on key financial metrics for the years 2018 to 2022:
- Debt: The company's debt has increased over the years, reaching 912.78 million EUR in 2022. This increasing debt level is a point of caution and needs to be monitored closely, as it may affect the company's financial flexibility.
- Free Cash Flow: Moncler has shown a fluctuating trend in free cash flow, with significant variations from year to year. While the H1 2023 free cash flow stands at 492.72 million EUR, this could impact the company's ability to invest in growth opportunities or return value to shareholders.
- Cash and Equivalents: Moncler has maintained a relatively stable level of cash and equivalents over the years, which provides a degree of liquidity and financial strength.
Now, let's analyze the Financial Position based on the figures from 2022:
- Short-term Assets: 1.62 billion EUR
- Short-term Liabilities: 963.71 million EUR
- Long-term Assets: 3.02 billion EUR
- Long-term Liabilities: 773.31 million EUR
Moncler's financial position seems relatively strong, with a higher value of assets compared to liabilities, both in the short and long term. However, it's important to keep an eye on the company's debt levels and how they might impact its financial position in the future.
Regarding the company's earnings per share (EPS) history and projections:
- EPS in 2020: 1.18 EUR
- EPS in 2021: 1.53 EUR
- EPS in 2022: 2.24 EUR
- H1 2023: 0.54 EUR
Moncler has shown an increasing trend in EPS, which is generally positive. However, the H1 2023 EPS has seen a decline compared to the previous year. This dip could be due to various factors, and it's crucial to closely monitor the reasons behind it to assess its potential impact on future performance.
Now, let's review the financial statements for H1 2022, H2 2022, and H1 2023:
- H1 2022:
- Total revenue: 918.38 million EUR
- Gross profit: 576.21 million EUR
- Operating income: 180.17 million EUR
- Pretax income: 168.54 million EUR
- Net income: 211.25 million EUR
- H2 2022:
- Total revenue: 1.68 billion EUR
- Gross profit: 1.19 billion EUR
- Operating income: 594.38 million EUR
- Pretax income: 578.79 million EUR
- Net income: 395.44 million EUR
- H1 2023:
- Total revenue: 1.14 billion EUR
- Gross profit: 731.59 million EUR
- Operating income: 217.79 million EUR
- Pretax income: 206.47 million EUR
- Net income: 145.35 million EUR
Moncler's financial statements show an overall positive trend in revenue, gross profit, and net income. However, the H1 2023 figures indicate a decline in net income compared to H2 2022. It's essential to assess the reasons behind this decline and evaluate whether it's a short-term setback or a potential cause for concern.
Future Outlook:
As for me, my rating for Moncler stock would be cautiously optimistic. The company has demonstrated strong financials, stable cash reserves, and a consistent revenue stream. The increasing EPS until 2022 indicates growth and profitability.
However, there are some concerns that need to be closely monitored. The rising debt level and fluctuating free cash flow could impact the company's ability to invest in growth initiatives or handle unforeseen economic challenges.
The decline in H1 2023 net income raises questions about the company's performance during this period. To make a more accurate assessment, it's crucial to investigate the reasons behind this decline and evaluate the company's strategies for addressing potential challenges.
In conclusion, Moncler appears to be a solid luxury fashion company with growth potential, but potential investors should conduct thorough research and analysis to make informed decisions. The financial health and future outlook should be continually monitored, considering the evolving market conditions and economic landscape.
Disclaimer : Please note that the future behavior of the stock is subject to market volatility, industry trends, and global economic conditions. I highly recommend you guys staying updated with the company's quarterly reports and financial statements for a more accurate evaluation of its performance and prospects. Additionally, all of the information that I used can be found in the trading view app related to MONC financial details.
A 4th upper move for Moncler
Upon conducting a comprehensive analysis of the 4-hour price actions of MONC, a prominent 61-61.70 EUR major demand zone becomes apparent. Notably, the price has encountered robust rejection three times at this level, enhancing the support's credibility and accuracy. To further strengthen our insights, we have incorporated momentum oscillators such as the MACD and RSI, which revealed hidden bullish divergence. This favorable indication allows us to anticipate a potential upward movement in MONC's price, with a target of up to 69 EUR. In my professional opinion, this level appears to be an opportune point to consider selling our units, as historical data indicates limited price advancements beyond this area.
Moncler (MONC.mi) bearish scenario:The technical figure Pennant can be found in the Italian company Moncler (MONC.mi) at daily chart. Moncler is an Italian luxury fashion brand with French origin mostly known for its skiwear. The Pennant has broken through the support line on 02/04/2022, if the price holds below this level you can have a possible bearish price movement with a forecast for the next 6 days towards 46.860 EUR. Your stop loss order according to experts should be placed at 52.86 EUR if you decide to enter this position.
Moncler reported revenues that surpassed the 2-billion-euro mark, rising 44 percent compared with 1.4 billion euros in 2020, eight years after its initial public offering and through a global pandemic. Net profit climbed 37 percent to 411.4 million euros, compared with 300.4 million euros in 2020. Compared with 2019, it grew 14.7 percent from 358.7 million euros. The group also touted a free cash flow of 550.3 million euros, above pre-COVID-19 levels and compared to 195.5 million euros in 2020.
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MONCLER BULLISH SCENARIO Technical outlook:
Moncler S.p.A. (MONC.mi) daily chart. Moncler is an Italian luxury ski wear brand. Bought by Italian entrepreneur Remo Ruffini in 2003, who transformed, reinvented the near-bankrupt company which later was listed on the Milan Stock Exchange in 2013. In December 2020, Moncler purchased 100% stake of Italian luxury sportswear brand Stone Island in a reported €1.15 billion acquisition. The Triangle has broken through the resistance line at 22/05/2021, if the price holds above this level experts believe possible bullish price movement may occur for the next 21 days towards 55.60 EUR. The stop loss order should be placed at 49.93 EUR.
Fundamentals:
-Moncler chairman and chief executive officer Remo Ruffini believes 2021 will be a year “of rebirth and fresh energy,” as well as “of great work and zest for new projects.”
-The year has certainly started well, with China, Korea and North America lifting Moncler revenues up 18 percent to 365.5 million euros in the last three months ended March 31, compared with 310.1 million euros in the same period of 2020. At constant exchange rates, sales have risen by 21 %. Compared to the first quarter of 2019, sales dropped by 3 %.
Moncler SpA (MONC - Italy) - Impulse up Moncler SpA (MONC - Italy) is in 3rd wave up of impulse sequence as its the part of 5th wave in daily time frame. It holds the invalidation line, to confirm the move up. In daily time frame it took sufficient time to complete 4th wave correction for next up move to wave 5 for new high.
Moncler is a SHORT - TARGET 25 EuroMoncler is a SHORT trade.
Reasons: Widening out of Bollinger Bands with a clear Long black candle crossing below the lower BB on weekly chart.
Got confirmation from MACD indicator and RSI giving us indication of weakness.
1st target at 25 Euro.
See you soon guys,
Simone