MPW: Diagonal CompleteGametime!
Not financial advice but this good be an awesome trade if managed well
:)
MPW trade ideas
MPW: Up Up and AwayMPW taking the scenic route but if you followed any of our other posts you know that we've continually said dealing with diagonal structures takes patience
That patience will be grandly rewarded most likely (no guarantees in the market folks)
Medical Properties Trust | MPW | Long at $4.30Medical Properties Trust NYSE:MPW is a beaten down medical facility REIT currently in a price consolidation phase. The company's stock price is at a level not seen since the 2008-2009 financial crisis - but this doesn't mean it's a "steal" right now for investors. Here's why (from Wiki):
"In 2022, The Wall Street Journal reported that Medical Properties Trust had made multiple loans to its largest tenant Steward Health Care and paid above market value to Steward for property that Steward then leased from Medical Properties. The article alleged that this was done to help Steward pay off debts to Cerberus Capital Management, while Medical Properties claimed that the amounts paid for the properties were fair based on its underwriting and internal appraisals for the properties. MPT referenced Steward’s dependability in paying approximately $1.2 billion in rent and interest since 2016 as further evidence of prudent underwriting. MPT also cited its 2022 sale of a 50% stake in the Massachusetts real estate it bought from Steward as validation of its strategy. In March 2022, Macquarie Infrastructure Partners V entered into a $1.7 billion partnership with MPT to own eight hospitals leased to Steward, resulting in a 47% gain on sale of real estate for MPT. Another Wall Street Journal report also claimed that the company engaged in risky acquisitions with tenants who were likely to default on rent payments later while the compensation of executives of the company was partially linked to the volume of acquisitions they could make. The company clarified that it does not directly compensate executives for acquisition volume, and that its compensation plan provides for reducing executive compensation if acquisitions do not increase the company's per-share value."
On September 11, 2024, NYSE:MPW announced a settlement agreement with Steward Health Care that ended their relationship and restored NYSE:MPW 's control over its real estate. So, it's a highly risky investment, but the cat may be out of the bag and a turnaround may be ahead (?). The country's need for medical facilities will be dire as the baby-boom generation gets older. With a 7% dividend and *potential* change in business profitability ahead, NYSE:MPW is at a personal buy zone of $4.30. Warning: It may take several years for a recovery, though, or bankruptcy is ahead.
Target #1 = $6.15
Target #2 = $8.00
Target #3 = $9.75
MPW: Diagonal Almost CompleteMPW looks to have one more push lower left to complete this diagonal pattern
Pattern becomes invalidated with a break below 4
This is looking good!
MPW at these levels look to be a 20%+ gain within 6-12 monthsI have traded this stock for awhile now and going in and out of it can make you some decent gains.
You can see on this chart the upside and downside of it. It has been hit recently because of the default by one of their big tenants. However, this is a fundamentally strong business that will come through that and start to see better results, especially in an interest rate declining environment.
I look at this as a minimum 20% upside play in the next 3-6months based on previous timelines, and you could see this run depending on how they navigate coming around the loss of that client.
I started a position in the sub $4 range and will look to add to it on any dips due to market dynamics.
MPW- Trigger WarningMPW is moving as anticipated
Price should accelerate through the VWAP soon
We went ahead and got in a trade at 4.82 (not financial advice) and plan to pick up additional shares at 5.01
Lets see....
MPW- The Charts Are What The Charts AreWe knew nothing about MPW until it popped up in one of our stock screeners
After analyzing the chart we quickly realized that the price structure was extremely bullish and was pointing significantly higher over the next year and a half
No need for a long explanation of the Elliott Wave count
And we can assure you that we couldnt care ONE BIT about the fundamentals
In fact we cant tell you anything about the fundamentals because we didnt bother to look (no seriously we really didnt look)
Why didnt we look?
Because SENTIMENT is the ONLY thing that truly matters (that and volume)
A price chart is simply a reflection of how the collective feels about a stock
That feeling includes feelings about the fundamentals
So if the price structure is bullish and impulsive then that means the collective is essentially bullish on the fundamentals...therefore there is no need for us to go look at the fundamentals and ascribe some value to it
But who knows...maybe we are wrong about this one..but then maybe we arent
Lets see....
MPW Medical Properties Trust concerning float short of 34.96% Medical Properties Trust, a real estate investment trust specializing in acquiring and developing net-leased hospital properties since 2003, currently has a concerning float short of 34.96% as of June 20.
This high short interest signals significant bearish sentiment among investors.
For the first quarter of FY2024, MPW reported a stark decline in total revenue, dropping to $271.3 million from $350.2 million in the previous year. The company also faced a staggering net loss of $736 million, or $1.23 per share. This substantial loss was primarily due to $693 million in impairments related to the Steward Health Care System.
Adding to the company's woes, Prospect Medical Holdings, one of MPW's largest and struggling tenants, revealed it had received a subpoena last year from the Justice Department. This development further underscores the potential risks and challenges facing Medical Properties Trust.
I'm looking at purchasing the $3 strike price puts expiring on January 17, 2025, currently priced at $0.40.
Technical Analysis of Medical Properties Trust, Inc. (MPW)Medical Properties Trust, Inc. (MPW) is showing significant upward momentum, closing at $5.58 with a substantial increase of 16.74% on May 13, 2024. The stock has broken out of a critical resistance level, indicating strong bullish sentiment.
Support: The key support level is at $4.44, which previously acted as resistance and has now turned into support.
Resistance: The immediate resistance is at $7.86 (2R), followed by a major resistance level at $9.00 (3R).
The latest candlestick pattern shows a strong bullish engulfing pattern, indicating a potential continuation of the uptrend.
The breakout above the previous resistance of $4.44 with high volume suggests a significant buying interest.
Volume Analysis:
The volume spike to 66.225 million, significantly above the average volume of 17.55 million, confirms the strength of the breakout.
Volume Delta shows a positive divergence, indicating accumulation.
The stock is trading above key moving averages (EMA 10, SMA 20, EMA 50, and SMA 200), all of which are indicating a "Buy" signal.
The 200-day EMA at $5.41 and the 200-day SMA at $5.04 are crucial levels to watch for support in case of a pullback.
Relative Strength Index (RSI) is at 67.46, which is approaching the overbought zone but still has room to move higher.
MACD shows a bullish crossover with the MACD level at 0.15, indicating a strong upward momentum.
The price has broken above the Ichimoku Cloud, with the base line at $5.12 providing a strong support level.
The next earnings report is due in approximately 72 days, with an EPS estimate of $0.10 and revenue estimate of $290.76 million.
The recent financial performance shows a mixed picture with surprises on both EPS and revenue fronts. Notably, Q4 '23 saw a negative EPS surprise of -860.54%, while Q2 '24 revenue estimate shows a slight positive surprise of +0.44%.
Trading Strategy
Long Position:
Entry: Consider entering a long position at the current price level of $5.58.
Target: Initial target price at $7.86, with a potential extended target at $9.00.
Stop Loss: Place a stop loss at $4.44 to protect against downside risk.
Time Frame: This setup is expected to unfold within the next 15-20 trading days, assuming continued bullish momentum.
Short Position:
Entry: Consider a short position if the price fails to hold above $7.86 and shows signs of reversal.
Target: Initial target price at $5.58, with a potential extended target at $4.44.
Stop Loss: Place a stop loss at $8.64 to limit losses in case of a bullish reversal.
Time Frame: This setup is expected to unfold within the next 10-15 trading days.
Conclusion
Medical Properties Trust, Inc. (MPW) is exhibiting strong bullish signals with significant upward momentum supported by high volume, bullish technical indicators, and a favorable chart pattern. The stock is poised for further gains with immediate targets at $7.86 and $9.00. Traders should consider a long position with appropriate risk management strategies in place. However, keep an eye on critical support levels and be prepared to switch to a short position if the bullish momentum fails to sustain above key resistance levels.
Steward Health Files for Bankruptcy, Up for a New LoanSteward Health, a US hospital network operating 30 hospitals across nine states, has filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy in Texas. The privately-owned chain aims to secure a new loan from its landlord, Medical Properties Trust ( NYSE:MPW ). Steward has sought short-term financing and to sell its physician group Stewardship Health, but the disposal has not been as swift as planned, forcing it to seek up to $225 million in financing from Medical Properties Trust. Steward CEO Ralph de la Torre said that with the additional financing, the chain will maintain the care of patients and employees.
The chain recently closed a hospital in Massachusetts, where state officials and politicians claim it did not disclose its financial troubles until they were deep enough to threaten medical care.
Massachusetts Health and Human Services Secretary Kate Walsh said the state is preparing for a possible bankruptcy and will support an orderly transfer of ownership to protect access to care, preserve jobs, and stabilize the healthcare system.
Medical Properties Trust Sells Majority Interest Surges 20%Medical Properties Trust, Inc. ( MIL:MPT ) has announced that it recently divested its interests in five Utah hospitals to a newly formed joint venture with an investment fund. The fund, affiliated with a leading institutional asset manager, has acquired approximately 75% interest in the venture, while MPT has retained an approximate 25% interest. The sale transaction has generated approximately $1.1 billion of immediate cash proceeds to MPT before costs and reserves, bringing total liquidity transactions year-to-date to $1.6 billion, which is 80% of MPT's initial FY 2024 target.
The proceeds from the sale are expected to be used to reduce outstanding debt, including the repayment of borrowings under its revolving credit facility and payment in full of the approximate $300 million Australian term loan due in 2024. In addition, the funds will be utilized for general corporate purposes.
The Utah lessee, an affiliate of CommonSpirit Health, has the right to acquire the leased real estate at a price equal to the greater of fair market value and the approximate $1.2 billion lease base at the fifth or tenth anniversary of the 2023 master lease commencement. MPT has granted certain limited and conditional preferences to the fund based on the possible exercise price of the lessee's purchase option.
MPT's Chairman, President, and CEO, Edward K. Aldag, Jr., stated that the company's approach to underwriting hospital real estate has been validated by highly sophisticated third-party participants in a broadening private market for real hospital assets. He emphasized that the primary focus of MPT is on accelerating its capital allocation strategy, and he expressed confidence that the company will exceed its initial target of $2.0 billion in liquidity transactions in 2024, based on the valuations achieved on recent transactions and the terms actively being negotiated for additional transactions.
Technical Outlook
Medical Properties Trust ( NYSE:MPW ) stock is trading above the 200-day Moving Average (MA) with a Relative Strength Index (RSI) of 67.43 indicating a bullish sentiment within the overbought territory. The stock is up by 20% in Monday Market trading.
Has MPW Bottomed Out?NYSE:MPW has pumped 19.60%+ today, and I received a great question about whether MPW has bottomed out. There was an opportunity to buy within the buy zone, and MPW had a strong rebound out of this buy zone. The momentum is currently bullish, and there is the possibility that MPW continues trending up towards the light blue trendline, which gives a price target around $6-7 price levels. This pump is caused by bullish news that Steward is selling assets to reduce its debt, which is a scenario that I've been discussing in past updates. It is possible for a selloff after this news, and for now MPW is at a $4.60 resistance level. It is important to monitor this resistance level to see if MPW gets a rejection or break here. With a rejection, I think there can be more buying opportunities around $3-4 price levels. MPW had a strong rebound off the orange zone, flipping it from resistance into support. I think MPW could retest this orange zone at some point, and I still think MPW could retest the green buy zone during a fed pivot.
If i told you the red circle indicates the day the motley fool..came out with their bullish article on this stock. Frankly, I can't stand the motley fool, and I marked this for some reason, just to test my theory.
I cant even find the article now. My point is this, when those guys make a call, do the opposite, you'll not be dissapointed.
MPW's $4.60 Price Target After Bullish BreakoutTechnical Analysis
MPW has been showing some solid bullishness out of the buy zone. There has been 6 consecutive green weekly candles so far including this week. MPW is forming a bullish breakout above this light blue trendline and orange resistance zone. I think there will be a pullback at some point, but for now the trend is still bullish and $4.60 is the key price target on this move up.
Medical Properties Trust (MPW): Navigating Liquidity And Strategic Asset Management
Medical Properties Trust Inc. (NYSE: MPW) recently shared insights into its financial health and strategic direction during its fourth quarter 2023 earnings call. With a focus on creating significant liquidity and managing its diverse portfolio of healthcare facilities, the company outlined its plan to navigate through current challenges and capitalize on its strengths. This blog delves into the key takeaways from the earnings call, highlighting both the bullish and bearish aspects of MPW’s strategy and performance.
Strategic Initiatives For Enhanced Liquidity
MPW’s CEO, Edward Aldag Jr., unveiled a capital allocation strategy aimed at generating at least $2 billion in liquidity by 2024. This ambitious plan involves the sale of Australian facilities and hospitals to Prime Healthcare Services, showcasing MPW’s proactive approach to capital management. These strategic asset sales, alongside ongoing opportunities, underscore the company’s commitment to financial flexibility and growth.
Addressing Challenges With Optimism
Despite facing issues with Steward Health Care System’s cash collections, MPW remains optimistic. The company is actively working on re-tenanting Steward properties, reflecting confidence in its ability to manage tenant-related challenges effectively. Additionally, the improved performance of Prospect Medical Holdings adds a layer of positivity, reinforcing MPW’s diversified portfolio’s strength.
A Look At The Bearish And Bullish Highlights
Bearish Insights:
The distressed situation with Steward has necessitated strategic re-tenanting and asset sales to ensure consistent rent payments.
A significant write-down of $90 million for loans to Steward underscores the financial challenges faced.
Concerns remain for an operator within the cash accounting pool, projecting no financial support due to low coverage.
Bullish Perspectives:
Interest from multiple potential tenants for Steward properties indicates robust demand for MPW’s assets.
The company’s European and American portfolios, including Circle Health and Priory, demonstrate strong performance.
Prospect Medical Holdings’ turnaround contributes to the positive outlook, highlighting potential for growth.
Future Outlook And InvestingPro Insights
Looking ahead, MPW is poised to achieve its strategic objectives, bolstered by a focus on sustaining community health through acute care hospitals. The company’s strategic sales and financing plans aim to navigate the complex financial landscape successfully.
From an investment perspective, MPW presents a mixed bag of opportunities and challenges. According to InvestingPro data, the company boasts a market cap of $2.28 billion USD and an appealing dividend yield of 15.79%. The aggressive share buyback program and low Price / Book multiple suggest that MPW may be undervalued, offering potential for income generation and price appreciation.
Conclusion
Medical Properties Trust Inc. is at a pivotal point, with strategic initiatives in place to enhance liquidity and manage its portfolio effectively. While challenges remain, particularly with certain tenants, the company’s optimistic approach and strategic sales indicate a forward-looking perspective. For investors, MPW’s current valuation and dividend yield may offer attractive opportunities, especially for those focused on income generation and value investing. As MPW navigates its strategic path, its ability to adapt and capitalize on its strengths will be crucial in driving future success.
MPW is a buy at these levels - Dividend + UpsideMPW battered, and rightly so because of their main tenant having difficulty paying. However, I think this stock has been beaten up pretty badly and any positive news will see this run based on the strong sentiment it has had and historical price levels.
I see this as a strong 2-4x reward to those that can sit on it for 1-2 years. While the dividend may get reduced given the reduction in cash flow, you are still going to be locking in long term yield growth.
Need to be able to sit on this for 1-2 years but the risk/reward is high. This is a strong conviction lottery play.
MPW - Probably the bottom MPW has had a rough 2 years. Not only facing a fed that won't stop hiking, but various FUD and shorters that are eager to short this into the ground.
It is providing long term investors with a picture perfect setup if your time horizon is multiple years and you like collecting yield.
My notes are on the chart, but, this is probably the best buying opp in years. The yield down here is also very attractive with a 50% retrace.
Very possible it goes deeper, but there's many technical reasons for a bottom to form here.
Obviously all bets are off if we get a limit down nuke to hades from the indexes.
I'm down bad on this at the moment from April 2022, but I've been reinvesting and lowering my average entry for the last 3 months at this point.
It's a fire sale and I'm not selling here.
$MPW: Short setupLooks like more downside to come in this stock. Current decline has been the fastest since 2020, and it doesn't seem likely to stop anytime soon.
Short on retrace or here, stop zone a bit over $8.47 and downside targets are $6.63 and $5.19 by late June 2023.
Best of luck!
Cheers,
Ivan Labrie.
$MPW, healthcare REIT stock bombed out but not depletedI think it's time to take another look at MPW and see it's potential both based on it's classification as a REIT but also based on the sector it mostly plays in, Healthcare.
Cheers everybody!
Always taking ticker requests
Bottomless pitNo sign of reversal. No price target, as it is continuously dipping. Might reach $5 in next 3 month.
MPW levelsMPW levels on the 1-day chart:
SMA20 Triangular Trend Channel:
top = $14.93
R3 = $14.31
R2 = $13.69
R1 = $13.06
pivot = $12.44
S1 = $11.82
S2 = $11.20
S3 = $10.58
bottom = $9.95
Do your own due diligence, your risk is 100% your responsibility. This is for educational and entertainment purposes only. You win some or you learn some. Consider being charitable with some of your profit to help humankind. Good luck and happy trading friends...
*3x lucky 7s of trading*
7pt Trading compass:
Price action, entry/exit
Volume average/direction
Trend, patterns, momentum
Newsworthy current events
Revenue
Earnings
Balance sheet
7 Common mistakes:
+5% portfolio trades, capital risk management
Beware of analyst's motives
Emotions & Opinions
FOMO : bad timing, the market is ruthless, be shrewd
Lack of planning & discipline
Forgetting restraint
Obdurate repetitive errors, no adaptation
7 Important tools:
Trading View app!, Brokerage UI
Accurate indicators & settings
Wide screen monitor/s
Trading log (pencil & graph paper)
Big, organized desk
Reading books, playing chess
Sorted watch-list
Checkout my indicators:
Fibonacci VIP - volume
Fibonacci MA7 - price
pi RSI - trend momentum
TTC - trend channel
AlertiT - notification
tickerTracker - MFI Oscillator
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Short Put to Finance Long Call, for 1/20/23 Expiration$MPW.
Bullish, 'bottom-is-in' trade idea.
+1 $11 CALL 1/20/23.
---{current share price: $10.25}---
-1 $9 PUT 1/20/23.
Short put accommodates an add'l 12% of downside. Long call profit starts kicking in at 7% .
Order can be filled for a credit of $0.05.
$900 collateral needed for short put.
Tracking the movement from 2012Should the pattern repeat, this will make a full recovery by summer 2023.
Short scalp MPWBased on its downtrend, regress off resistance and a familiar chart pattern confirmed by my technical indicators, I expect at least half a percent in profits IF MPW breaches today's low of $15.18 during tomorrow's session.
