Microsoft 280USD first targetIt goes up to the price of 350USD and starts to fall to 280USD .
be careful
MSFT trade ideas
Consensus Trading Model, What to do with MSFTYou can use different trading models and strategies and give them a score, and then use the summation score as a trading model.
Let's do this for NASDAQ:MSFT and compare 10 different models and give a score of +1 score for bullish, 0 for neutral, and -1 for bearish.
Elliott wave: -1
Wyckoff:0
Mean version:0
Regression Channel:-1
Random Walk Index:-1
Price Action to Support and resistance line:-1
Weekly chart:-1
Alligator Method:0
Super trend:1
Money Flow Index:-1
Piotroski F Score:0
Total score: -5
Conclusion: Microsoft is more likely to experience more decline!
Microsoft - Is The Top Already In?One of the key points to Microsoft is it is, in essence, a U.S. state-backed corporation, and one that is trading at more than $2.5 trillion market cap at present.
You're looking at a company that just set a new all time high while the overall market is not healthy and the macroeconomic fundamentals are actually bearish.
And so, we have to seriously ask ourselves if it's time to short God the top.
Microsoft's price action on the monthly is curious.
The price action is healthy and natural all the way from where it bounces to the top, and only becomes curiously strange when it gets to the top.
Why does a stock that bounces at the right place and forms a fully proper reversal pattern, which we see on the weekly:
Only sweep the All Time High?
Why doesn't it raid the ATH and run bigly larger like NVDIA did?
Well, the answer is actually quite clear when you overlay NVDA to MSFT:
In essence, NVDA at $480-450 is MSFT at $350. The difference in price action you see today is because NVDA was relatively weaker in the past, meaning MSFT was inordinately strong in the past.
Anything that reaches an extreme will reverse. If it reaches the extreme twice, it will reverse hard twice.
The geopolitical situation in the world is not healthy. There is a ton of sabre rattling between NATO and the Nation of China at the moment.
The western propaganda machine wants you to believe that Xi Jinping intends to invade Taiwan because he's very evil very super Mao Zedong++, but in reality it's more like the "International Rules Based Order" wants to use the fact that the Chinese Communist Party is rotten and unforgivable as a handle to depose Xi and have Taiwan invade the Mainland under the guise of international "aide".
Why this matters to you as a trader is because you're flirting with getting gapped down hard since Beijing daytime is New York night time.
If you want to be long right now you need to be hedged long volatility, or you're risking your life.
Moreover, Xi, in order to defend himself, his faction of Chinese nationalists, and China's 5,000 year history, can overthrow the CCP in a Gorbachev-style coup overnight, weaponizing the 24-year-long persecution and genocide of Falun Dafa by the faction belonging to former Chairman Jiang Zemin (it died this year).
The significance is major to traders because your beloved governments, banks, and corporations have stained their hands crimson flirting with the Jiang faction toadies in Shanghai (Babylon) in order to get all the benefits they desire.
Google the Neil Heywood story if you want to see a classic example of a British billionaire getting gibbed by the greatest evil of all time.
Much to do before the call's key points.
Before we continue, I examine the price action I expect to manifest in SPY (SPX Futures ETF) for the remainder of the month, which can serve as something of a compass for what lies ahead:
SPY - A Dip Is Coming. Maybe Buy It?
Back to MSFT:
This is a very hard setup to trade
Because the June high may have been a hard top, double and triple top or not (See TSLA July-September '22)
Lower lows lower highs indicates the dip is hard to buy
But the short may only take us to the $320 range.
Sweeping $300 is the key to a bullish continuation above the highs
Maintaining ~$280 is the key to continuing upwards at all.
Microsoft has a really notable catalyst in that its earnings are on July 25 postmarket, which means price action will manifest the morning of July 26, which just so happens to be when the next FOMC meeting is.
After July FOMC the next FOMC is deferred until September 20, 9 days short of quarter end, notable because of the notorious JPM Collar, which I discuss here:
SPX/ES - An Analysis Of The 'JPM Collar'
What I expect is we see a fairly violent correction on Microsoft back to the $300s before we can see any kind of further meaningful flirtation with a run over the $350 ATH.
But the June high may have been the top for the foreseeable future, as evidenced by the relationship between NVDA and MSFT.
Be careful. The time we have left for happy and normal days is so short you can almost count it on the fingers.
When things really emerge, Nasdaq 8,500 will be the least of your concerns, really.
Microsoft (MSFT) Looking for Zigzag PullbackRally in Microsoft (ticker: MSFT) from the 11.4.2022 low is unfolding as a 5 waves impulse Elliott Wave structure. Up from 11.4.2022 low, wave ((1)) ended at 263.92 and pullback in wave ((2)) ended at 219.35. The stock rallies again in wave ((3)) which ended at 366.82 as the 30 minutes chart below shows. Wave ((4)) pullback is currently in progress as a zigzag Elliott Wave structure. Down from wave ((3)), wave 1 ended at 352.01 and rally in wave 2 ended at 357.97. The stock resumes lower in wave 3 towards 345.37 and wave 4 ended at 350.56. Final leg wave 5 ended at 339.83 which completed wave (A).
Rally in wave (B) ended at 354.9 with internal subdivision as an expanded flat. Up from wave (A), wave ((a)) ended at 349.9, wave ((b)) ended at 345.07, and wave ((c)) ended at 351.89. This completed wave A of (B) in higher degree. Pullback in wave B ended at 338.56 and rally in wave C ended at 354.90 which completed wave (B). The stock now has resumed lower in wave (C). Down from wave (B), wave 1 ended at 333.11. Wave 2 rally is in progress as a zigzag to correct the decline from wave (B). Expect wave 2 rally to fail below wave (B) high at 354.9 and the stock to reesume lower. As far as pivot at 366.82 high stays intact, rally should fail in 3, 7, or 11 swing for further downside.
Bump in a bullish trendNASDAQ:MSFT is down 4% today after a beat on top & bottom line. Fell right into the trend line range and I think we move back up from here.
Not financial advice, good luck to all :)
How To Add Drawings To Your ChartIn this Tradingview basics video I'm going to show you how to add drawings to your chart using the options available on the left-side rail.
We'll look at not only what the options are, but the benefits of using "stay in drawing mode" as well as how labeling specific tools as "favorites" can save you time when marking up the charts.
If you have any question, comments, or subjects for future "Tradingview Basics" videos please leave them below.
Until next time, "Plan Your Trade, Trade Your Plan"
Akil
MSFT AnalysisPrice played out nicely as analyzed last week, giving us a 3.17% move to the downside after the earnings. I'm expecting price to fill the fair value gap at 334.27 next before deciding to go higher.
Msft Gapping down on earnings..
Head and shoulder setup here on the hourly
Has gaps at 337 and 332 to close.
50 sma and fib support around 330..
The setup is to short to 330-332 then long back to 340
Fib levels - All time high 366.78
Sept 2022 low - 213.43
MSFT: Bearish Crab with Double MACD Bearish DivergenceMicrosoft has traded up to a 1.618 Fibonacci Extension and has formed a Bearish Crab with Double MACD Bearish Divergence, so long as $350 holds as resistance, I think it could go as low as about $295 to fill the gap below.
In the meantime, I have sold $350 multi-week calls.
$371 target after earnings on MSFTPer dowsing, I get that there will be a new high and up $21 from where it is now = $371
It may not be up that high in the morning though, so if in options, beware.
MICROSOFT Huge MACD Bearish Cross ahead of earnings. Still buy?Microsoft (MSFT) has been trading within a Channel Up pattern since the March 13 Low, with the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) supporting all the way, having made no contact with the price at all. You can see that on the chart on the right (1D time-frame).
On the bigger picture, the 1W time-frame (chart on the left), the stock closed last week's 1W candle on a very discouraging Bearish Pin Bar, which is a candle formed on technical trend reversals from bullish to bearish. In addition the 1W RSI remains overbought above 70.00, despite dropping from the even higher levels of May 30.
Perhaps the strongest alarming indicator at the moment showing that the market may have hit a temporary top is the emerging Bearish Cross on the 1W MACD. Since 2020, we have seen that formation another 7 times, with 6 of them delivering a Lower Low. As a result when the 1W MACD Bearish Cross is completed, it will be more probable to see a correction, not necessarily an earth shuttering one.
But back to the 1D time-frame (chart on the right) if that happens, we will wait for a candle close below the 1D MA50 and sell, targeting the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line) on a projected contact at $300. Until this happens though, the Channel Up is on full effect and we are targeting the Internal Higher Highs trend-line at $380.
In the meantime, observe the 1D RSI, which is trading inside a Rectangle for the past 6 months and has offered accurate buy signals at its bottom and sell signals at its top.
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
** Please LIKE 👍, FOLLOW ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! **
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
💸💸💸💸💸💸
👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇
Microsoft Earnings tonight - we expect a pullback As earnings expectations are negative we expect some pullback from the highs of the chart this week. we are well prepared to take this trade at 336.5$
Here are the full trade details :
MSFT EARNINGS TRADE :
Waiting on a pullback tonight
Entry at 336.5 (may have a draw down to 333.5)
Take Profit 366 - previous Highest high - left us a big wick on the upside - thats our target
Stop Loss 329 - below previous lower low
366-336 = 30$ profit per share
336-329 = -7$ loss per share
1 lot =100 shares
1 lot at 1:20 leverage = (336.5*100)/20=1682.5
Profit calculation: 30*100 = 3000$
Loss calculation: 7*100 = 700$
R/R : 700/3000 = 1 : 4+
ROI : 1682.5 / 3000 = 1.78 return
This is not a trading advice. this is not a financial advice. trading is a high risk instrument please only trade with money you can afford to lose!
$MSFT #Microsoft Earning PlayNASDAQ:MSFT #Microsoft Earning Play if you have been long NASDAQ:MSFT like we have it is prudent to take profits or if you are in the business of shorting stocks this is an excellent shorting opportunity. Know your target before you make the trade. There is a Double Top where you can stop out if it closes above the double top on a weekly basis.
$MSFT EARNINGS Analysis, Key Levels & TargetsNASDAQ:MSFT Analysis, Key Levels & Targets
Implied move for earnings today is between 324 & 367 (6% move) - so where are you setting your sell orders, lol...
There is a lot of downside that needs to be tested to be solidified for a move higher to be justified…
I have no open positions in NASDAQ:MSFT but tracking for SPY & SPX and of course I always may take one if I see a great setup… right now we are equally between the nearest support and resistance levels…
MICROSOFT'S Fiscal 2023 Q4 Results: Assessing Growth and....Microsoft's Fiscal 2023 Q4 Results: Assessing Growth and Profitability
Investors are eagerly anticipating Microsoft's fiscal 2023 fourth-quarter results, set to be unveiled on July 25. The upcoming report holds significance as it is expected to include the company's outlook for fiscal year 2024, making it a crucial event for evaluating Microsoft's growth opportunities, profitability, and cash demand trends.
When considering Microsoft as an investment, three key factors set it apart from others.
Diverse Business:
Microsoft's strength lies in its diverse business offerings. Unlike companies that focus on specific industries or technologies, Microsoft provides exposure to various growth niches, including enterprise cloud services, AI, productivity software, and more. Owning Microsoft allows investors to capitalize on multiple expansion opportunities under one brand, thereby reducing the risks associated with heavy reliance on a single sector.
High Profitability:
Despite some fluctuations in financial metrics since the peak of the pandemic in 2021 and early 2022, Microsoft remains one of the most efficient generators of cash and profits in the market. In the last quarter, the company achieved an impressive 15% year-over-year increase in operating income, resulting in $22.4 billion in profit on $53 billion in sales. This high level of profitability reinforces Microsoft's position as a robust and stable investment option.
As the report is released, investors should focus on these essential growth indicators and look beyond short-term sales volatility to assess Microsoft's long-term potential. The company's diverse business and strong profitability make it an attractive investment opportunity for those seeking stability and growth in their portfolio.
Pricey Stock:
In terms of valuation, Microsoft is considered a pricey stock, with investors having to pay a premium for its valuable assets. Presently, Microsoft stock is valued at over 12 times its annual sales, comparable to the faster-growing Palo Alto Networks. However, in comparison, Apple offers a relatively better bargain with a valuation of 8 times its sales, while Amazon is even cheaper at less than 3 times its sales.
While there is a possibility that Microsoft's valuation may decrease in the coming quarters, particularly if the company reports disappointing sales results in late July or forecasts challenges in the upcoming operational year, the more likely scenario is that the business will continue to gain market share in various significant global tech industries. Additionally, any cyclical downturn in its operating system segment or consumer tech devices division is expected to be short-lived.
Considering Microsoft's bright long-term outlook, industry-leading profit margins, ample cash flow, and rising dividend payments, it emerges as an incredibly attractive stock to consider adding to your portfolio. For tech stock investors who prefer a less risky approach in a fast-moving industry, Microsoft provides an excellent opportunity to gain exposure to major trends while investing in one of the most valuable companies in the world.
$MSFT LongPYTH:MSFT
Mid TF trade here. MSFT had a nice lil growth yesterday. So this is a hopeful scalp. Setting up longs at imbalances which coincidentally fall just perfectly on the 0.618 Fib retracement.
Running standard SMC, on the 4 HR & 1 D there is a break of structure to higher highs and higher lows. We aren't trading against the trend, checking the divergences on the higher TFs, there is a strong flow of Buyer Action and Volume to drive this to higher regions.
Tight SL but high profit as always. We have a lovely 8.05 RR. All the best!
MSFT looking poised for $350+MSFT just bounce right off of golden pocket fib. Earnings AH tomorrow and I could see it trade back to $350 before earnings. Leaning more bullish with PT at $357. With MSFT placing a fee to use its AI as well as raising fees on MSFT 365, I see a great outlook for guidance. I hope that we have a great earnings report tomorrow.
MSFT Stocks: Fundamental vs. Technical AnalysisThis week 166 companies that make up 33% of the S&P 500 index will publish their reports for the second quarter. Among them, the second largest company in the index, Microsoft. And here, an interesting situation develops: the fundamental background is quite strong, and technical analysis shows signs of weakness. Judge for yourself.
Fundamental analysis:
→ the Android version of the sensational ChatGPT will be released this week;
→ Fundstrat analysts see a target price for MSFT shares of around USD 380 in the short term and USD 426 in the long term;
→ Barclays analysts have rated MSFT stock as a Buy with a target of USD 425 (previous MSFT share price target of USD 425) amid Microsoft 365 AI rollout.
However, let's evaluate the MSFT stock chart from the point of view of technical analysis. Note that after a sharp breakdown of the psychological level of USD 350 on July 18, 3 days of rollback followed, which completely leveled the progress of the bulls and lowered the stock price back below USD 350; Friday's low is below the low of July 18, which can be interpreted as a shortage of buyers after a bullish breakdown. The attack of the bulls did not attract followers. Thus, the market, by its behavior, casts doubt on the scenario of further growth, which can be imagined on the basis of a strong fundamental.
Fundamental or technical analysis? We will find out on Tuesday after the close of the main session, when the Microsoft report is released.
This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.
Microsoft Corporation (MSFT), DailyShares in Microsoft Corporation (symbol ‘MSFT’) have performed exceptionally well throughout the whole of the second quarter of the year with gains of around 80% outperforming the S&P 500. The company is expected to report earnings for the quarter ending June 2023, on Tuesday 25th of July after market close. The consensus EPS is $2,55 compared to $2,23 in the same quarter last year.
“ The financial image of the company is completely in line with the extraordinary performance in the second quarter. The current ratio as of 31/03/2023 is at 191% showing that the company is more than capable of repaying its short term liabilities with the current assets that are in hand. Also the payout ratio is just short of 30% indicating that the company is keeping funds from giving out as dividends to its investors to invest in their economic growth which shows the dedication of the company to grow even more.” says Antreas Themistokleous, an analyst at Exness.
Technical analysis shows the price has been trading in a bullish momentum since the beginning of March and is currently above the upper band of the Bollinger bands. This means that the bulls are pretty active pushing the price to the upside with volatility being fueled up. On the other hand the price is trading well above its moving averages and in combination with the Stochastic oscillator in the extreme overbought levels it is possible to see a correction to the downside especially if earnings expectations are not met.
MSFT getting ready for a bounce ahead of earningsWith a nice pullback today, I am hoping it pulls back a little more at market open to $351.43 before its continuation back up. Although, it is currently respecting its 1H 21MA around $352, so just keep an eye on it if it breaks below next support will be the $351.43.
I can see it retesting $360 next week before earnings on Tuesday 7/25 AH.
Microsoft Long Alltime High hit Earnings New 52-week highs this week, powered by the Dow which, on Friday, extended its streak of positive days to ten — something the blue chip index has not done in almost six years. The Dow has been powered by, among other things, a slew of corporate financial results, particularly from the banks, which showed not only improved profitability, but also strong guidance for the next quarter and full year.
I have explained 2 bullish scenarios,1 bearish(worse case).
Bullish:
higher highs higher lows
poc uprising
volume increasing
capital flow rising
In case the Take profits hit, and we have increased volume, I will ride the trend.
I will only take profit 10% of the microsoft portfolio and let the profit run.
Exit :Stop loss or trend change signal
The mid and long term horizon is bullish. If any Profit taking level reaches, and trend continuation is signalizing that the uptrend will be continued, I will increase agressively my positions and take only 10% profits of each position.I will let the prfoits run.
This trade setup is only for trend followers and on daily TF.
MSFTRetracement time on MSFT in my opinion.
Once we break this nasty looking flag we'd possibly see downside all the way to 300 and 270.
MSFT Microsoft Options Ahead of Earnings ! Growth Thesis !If you haven`t bought MSFT when they Bought 49% Stake in OpenAI, creator of ChatGPT:
Or sold on their warning to investors:
Then analyzing the options chain and chart patterns of MSFT Microsoft prior to the earnings report this week,
I would consider purchasing the 345usd strike price Calls with
an expiration date of 2024-1-19,
for a premium of approximately $28.95.
If these options prove to be profitable prior to the earnings release, I would sell at least half of them.
The investment by Microsoft in OpenAI signifies a significant boost to their artificial intelligence capabilities. OpenAI's advanced technologies and expertise in AI research and development could potentially enhance the capabilities of Microsoft's Bing search engine. With access to powerful AI algorithms and resources, Bing may be able to offer more personalized and accurate search results, thereby attracting users who seek a more refined search experience.
Microsoft has been making strategic moves to expand its presence in various sectors, including cloud computing and enterprise services. By integrating Bing into its ecosystem of products and services, Microsoft can leverage its existing user base and partnerships to promote Bing as a viable alternative to Google.
In recent years, Google has faced scrutiny over data privacy concerns and antitrust issues, which could create an opportunity for Bing to gain traction among users seeking more privacy-focused alternatives. Additionally, Microsoft has been actively investing in marketing and advertising efforts to raise awareness about Bing and improve its market positioning.
While Google currently holds a dominant position in the search engine market, the landscape is dynamic and subject to change. If Microsoft successfully leverages its partnership with OpenAI to enhance Bing's capabilities, coupled with strategic marketing initiatives, it could potentially chip away at Google's market share over time.
The implementation, by Microsoft, of a chatbot like ChatGPT, powered by OpenAI's advanced natural language processing capabilities, could indeed provide an opportunity for consumers to find the cheapest price online for the same product. In an era where price comparison and cost-saving measures are highly valued by customers, this feature could be a valuable asset for Bing.
Amazon's reputation for having expensive and overvalued prices has been a topic of discussion among consumers. While Amazon provides a wide range of products and convenient shopping experiences, some users have expressed concerns about the pricing competitiveness on the platform. This presents an opening for Bing to attract cost-conscious consumers who are actively seeking better deals.
The concern over the origin of products, particularly those manufactured in China, has gained attention in recent years. Some consumers prefer to avoid purchasing Chinese-made products due to quality, safety, or political reasons. If Bing can provide a search experience that allows users to filter or identify the origin of products more effectively, it could cater to a segment of consumers who prioritize alternative sourcing.
I think MSFT will be one of the winners of the AI race.
Looking forward to read your opinion about it.
