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MSFT trade ideas

MSFT suppressed by the 3.000 level of the golden sectionMSFT suppressed by the 3.000 level of the golden section This chart shows the weekly candle chart of Microsoft stock in the past two years. The graph overlays the low point at the end of October 2022 against the golden section. As shown in the figure, Microsoft's stock has reached another new high this week, breaking through the highest point at the end of 2021! But the weekly pattern of Microsoft stock this week is a long shadow line, with the highest point precisely suppressed by the 3.000 level of the golden section in the figure! Based on last week's weekly pattern, Microsoft's stock market is likely to enter a contraction triangle consolidation state in the future!
NASDAQ:MSFT
by Think_More
Is MSFT's bullish momentum depleted? The uptrend channel A 100% parallel extension of the uptrend channel indicates the strength of this bullish trend. Symmetrical projection: An uptrend N pattern By projecting a 100% symmetry projection of the initial swing from point A to B, and extending it from point C, the target price would be point D at $303.3. Given that the anticipated symmetric pullback to point E did not occur, my expectation is for a further 100% extension from point D. As a result, the target price has been revised upwards to point F at $360.8. Other key levels Resistance The historical highest high at $349.6 is a very strong resistance level, coinciding with the upper band of the channel's 100% extension. The more resistances encountered, the harder it is to break through. Support The 1.5 extension level at $ 332 is a support level that has been tested. Clear price reactions to key Fibonacci levels can enhance the overall significance and value of the analysis. The prior low level, which is at $322.5, can always act as a significant support level. Moreover, it’s a resistance turned support level, making it more important. Possible scenarios If the uptrend continues… When facing the key resistance at $349.6, the market should exhibit a clear movement, like a gap-up opening or a significant bullish candle, to demonstrate its determination. If the bullish momentum is depleted… The market is likely to pull back the price to below the prior low level, which is at $322.5. Compared to the 1.5 extension support level, the level of the prior low holds greater importance. If the 1.5 extension support level is breached, it serves as a mere warning. However, If the level of the prior low is breached, it disrupts the rhythm of a healthy bullish trend and makes price movements difficult to anticipate. Conclusion If the key support at $322.5 is breached, it’s better to step out of the market. Allow the market to stabilize on its own, and wait for a clearer signal before reentering. If not, the uptrend will continue, and the target price remains at $360.8. Hindsight bias part While our target price is $360.8, the prior historical high level at $349.6 represents the optimal target price. Considering the formidable resistance at the prior historical high, I prefer to sacrifice a small portion of potential returns in favor of a higher probability of success. **Not Financial Advice** The information contained in this article is not intended as, and should not be understood as financial advice. You should take independent financial advice from a professional who is aware of the facts and circumstances of your individual situation.
NASDAQ:MSFT
by stock_adelie
Ascending TriangleMSFT has been banging away at the resistance line of a large Cup & Handle pattern and has possibly moved the resistance line to 351.47 after a few attempts at this almost exact level. This was looking toppy, but another leg up has changed that outlook, for now. This stock is trying to beat an ATH, so price is making it's own resistance at an unusual level as it seems to have trouble getting past 351.47. There is no old price action above 351.47. Often with almost no resistance overhead a stock will fly in to the sky for a while at least. Strong stock. Earnings are fairly soon/7-27/and could explain the hesitancy. Spinning top at resistance today/indecision. This level is supposed to be a launching pad, not a camping ground. (o: No recommendation
NASDAQ:MSFT
by lauralea
FTC Appeals to Block Microsoft Activision MergerI am providing a crucial update regarding the recent news of the Federal Trade Commission's (FTC) decision to appeal against the proposed merger between Microsoft and Activision. This development has significant implications for the tech industry, particularly for those who have invested or are considering investing in Microsoft stock. The FTC's decision to appeal the merger indicates that regulatory authorities are scrutinizing the potential consequences of this consolidation. While mergers and acquisitions can often lead to positive outcomes, such as improved products and services, it is essential to approach this situation cautiously, considering the potential risks and uncertainties ahead. As tech traders, it is crucial to carefully evaluate the potential impact of this appeal on Microsoft's stock performance. The uncertainty surrounding the outcome of the appeal, coupled with potential delays or even the possibility of the merger being blocked, could significantly influence the company's stock value in the short to medium term. Therefore, I strongly advise you to exercise prudence and consider holding off on buying Microsoft stock until further clarity emerges regarding the outcome of the FTC's appeal. By doing so, you can better protect your investment and mitigate potential risks associated with this merger. It is important to understand this is not financial advice but rather an alert to the potential implications of the FTC's appeal on Microsoft's stock performance. As always, I encourage you to consult your financial advisor or conduct thorough research before making investment decisions. In conclusion, the FTC's decision to appeal the Microsoft-Activision merger has introduced an element of uncertainty into the market. By adopting a cautious approach and refraining from immediate stock purchases, you can better position yourself to make informed investment choices once more clarity on the situation emerges.
NASDAQ:MSFT
by bryandowningqln
Guide to Recession - What Is It? Recession is a scary word for any country An economic recession occurs when the economy shrinks. During recessions, even businesses close their doors. Even an individual can see these things with his own eyes: 1. People lose their jobs 2. Investment lose their value 3. Business suffers losses Note: The recession is part of an economic cycle. If you haven't read that article, you can check it below: What is the Recession? Two consecutive quarters of back-to-back declines in gross domestic product constitute a recession. The recession is followed by the peak phase. Even if a recession lasts only a few months, the economy will not reach its peak after serval years when it ends. Effect on supply & Demand - The demand for goods decreased due to expensive prices. Supply will keep increasing, and on the other hand, demand will begin to decline. That causes an "excess of supply" and will lead to falling in prices. A recession usually lasts for a short period, but it can be painful. Every recession has a different cause, but they have the main reason for the cause of the recession. What is depression? - A deep recession that persists for a long time eventually leads to depression. During a recession, the inflation rate goes down. How to avoid recession? 1. Monetary Policy - Cut interest rates - Quantitative easing - helicopter money 2: Fiscal policy - Tax Cut - Higher government spending 3: higher inflation target 4: Financial stability Unemployment : We know that companies are healthy in expansion, but there is a saying, "too much of anything can be good for nothing." During peak, The company is unable to earn the next marginal dollar. Companies are taking more risk and debt to reset the growth Not only companies but investors and debtors also invest in risky assets. Why does lay-off occur? After the peak phase, companies are unable to earn the next marginal dollar. Now, the business is no more profitable. CCompaniesstart to reduce their costs to enter into a profitable system. For example - Labour Now, Companies are working with fewer employees. Fewer employees must work more efficiently. Otherwise, they may be lay-off by the company too. You can imagine the workload and pressure. You may argue that they should leave the company! Really? Guys, we just discussed the employment rate declines. How will you get a job when there is no job? Now, you get it! Let's assume the effects of the recession on the common man: Condition 1: He may be laid off. Condition 2: Perhaps he will be forced to work longer hours. The company is unable to maintain a positive outlook. Fewer employees are doing more work due to massive lay-off. His wages decline, and he has no disposable income. As a result, consumption rates are reduced, resulting in lower inflation rates. A slowdown in the economy is caused by lower prices, which decrease profits, resulting in more job cuts. Four Causes of Recession: 1. Economic Shocks 2. Loss of Consumer 3. High-interest rates 4. Sudden stock market crash 1) Economic shocks - When there is an external or economic shock the country faces. For example, COVID-19, 2) Consumer confidence - Negative perception about the economy and the company from consumers who lack confidence in their spending power. Instead of spending, they will choose to save money. As there is no spending, there is no demand for goods and services. The absence of spending results in a lack of demand for goods and services. 3) High-interest rates - High-interest rates will reduce spending. Loans are expensive, so few people take them out. Consumer spending, auto sales, and the housing market will be affected. There can be no good demand if there is no lending. There will be a decline in production. 4) Sudden stock market crash - evade people's trust in the stock market. As a result, they do recall their money and emotion drives them crazy. It can also be considered a psychological factor. As a result, people will not spend money and GDP will decline. Consumer Spending: During the recession, consumers don’t have additional income called disposable income. Consumer spending parts -- Durable goods - Lasts for more than one year -- Non-durable goods - Lasts for less than one year -- Service - Accounting, legal, massage services, etc. Durable goods surfer during the recession. Non-durable goods are recession-proof because their day-to-day fundamentals are not affected by recessions. Let's take an example of two stocks, ABC Food vs ABC car But, will you stop buying food because of the recession? Will you reduce your consumption of toothpaste, bread, and milk? The answer is "NO". Consumers buy the same amount of food in good or bad times, On the other hand, consumers only trade in or trade off their car purchase when they are not only employed but optimistic about the safety of their jobs & confident that they could get a promotion or a high paid job with another employer. And People's disposable income is absorbed during the recession. Consumer spending is the crucial point to displacing recession. Auto sales: As we discussed, few people buy cars during a recession. New car sales count as economic growth. You may have heard about 0% loans. The company facilitates a 0% loan to increase auto sales. Mostly, people repair their cars or buy old cars during the recession. You may see a boost in the used car market and spare parts selling companies’ sales. Home sales/housing markets: I have a question now! Which is your biggest asset? Most of you will say, my home! New home sales are part of economic growth. Also, house price impact how wealthy consumer feel. Higher the home prices, the more they feel rich, and vice versa. When home prices are higher, consumers feel they are wealthy and they are willing to spend. But when house price declines, they reduce spending/consumption. If your biggest asset price declines, you don’t spend and the economy takes a longer time to recover. A higher rate stops increasing the home price because they have to pay more EMI. central bank reduces rates during the recession, and the housing market rate boosts because the loan/EMI is cheap. Interest rates: Generally, interest rates decline during a recession. Central banks cut interest rates that’s why loans become cheap. Benefits of Lower interest rates - - - Boost in the housing market. - - Increase sales of durable goods - - Boost in business investment - - Bonds and interest rates have an inverse relationship. An economic downturn tends to bring investors to bonds rather than stocks, which can perform well in a recession. - - During the recession, interest rates are lower and banks higher the criteria for getting loans, so that people can face the abstracts while lending money. Stock Market: I want to clarify that, the stock market is not an economy. The economic cycle is lagging behind the market cycle and sentiment cycle. It gives me a chill as a technical analyst and a sad moment as an economics lover. Sometimes it's ahead, and sometimes it's behind. Recession = bear market . Recession-Proof Industries: * Consumer staples * Guilty pleasures * Utilities * Healthcare * Information technology * Education I will write about this in the future, but for the time being, let's get back to technical analysis .
NASDAQ:MSFTEducation
by Money_Dictators
8
Toppy?Looks a bit like an H&S but a small one. Use your own judgement. Targets in green were calculated for a break out from the cup but did has not happened. H&S are measured from the neckline to the head of the pattern. Then that measurement is projected down from the neckline for a 100% fall ( would take price down to a gap fill if this indeed breaks the neckline). Keeping in mind that a security could fall more or less than 100%. The neckline is strong support until broken with a downtrend I see conflicting earnings dates/7-25 and 7-27 AMC. No recommendation.
NASDAQ:MSFT
by lauralea